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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Tansel, Aysit; Ozdemir, Zeynel / A.; Aksoy, Emre |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between labor force participation rate and unemployment rate in Turkey a developing country. Cointegration analysis is carried out for the aggregate and gender and age specific series. The findings indicate that there is no long-run relationship between labor force participation and unemployment rates in Turkey. Thus, unlike in the case of the developed countries the unemployment invariance hypothesis is supported in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment Invariance Hypothesis, Cointegration, Turkey |
| JEL: | E24 |
| Date: | 2015–01–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:61680&r=cwa |
| By: | Seda Demiralp (Department of Political Science, Isik University); Selva Demiralp (Department of Economics, Koc University); Inci Gumus (Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, Sabanci University) |
| Abstract: | Turkey has been going through a profound urban renewal process in the past decade, mainly based on a policy where public land is rapidly commodified by the state and used for construction projects through public-private partnerships. To some, this mechanism of state-led property development defines a new era in Turkish political economy and that the government shifted away from its earlier economic orientation defined by a commitment to structural reforms and production of exportable goods. Yet others deny the existence of such a shift and highlight that the growth rate in Turkey’s construction sector is not above global trends. Despite profound public interest in the topic, empirical studies that investigate the subject remain limited. This paper aims to make a contribution in this regard and investigates how the sectoral decomposition of GDP has changed in recent years, with an emphasis on the construction and industrial sectors. |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1503&r=cwa |
| By: | Ceritoglu, Evren; Gurcihan Yunculer, H. Burcu; Torun, Huzeyfe; Tumen, Semih |
| Abstract: | Civil war in Syria, which started in March 2011, has led to a massive wave of forced immigration from the Northern Syria to the Southeastern regions of Turkey. This paper exploits this natural experiment to estimate the impact of Syrian refugees on the labor market outcomes of natives in Turkey. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that immigration has considerably affected the employment outcomes of natives, while its impact on wage outcomes has been negligible. We document notable employment losses among informal workers as a consequence of refugee inflows. The majority of those who lost their informal jobs have either left the labor force or remained unemployed. Overall, unemployment rates have increased, while labor force participation, informal employment, and job finding rates have declined among natives. Disadvantaged groups -- i.e., females, younger workers, and less-educated workers|have been affected the worst. The prevalence of informal employment in the Turkish labor markets has amplified the negative impact of Syrian refugee inflows on natives' labor market outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Syrian civil war; immigration; Turkey; labor market; informality; difference in differences. |
| JEL: | C21 J15 J21 J61 |
| Date: | 2015–01–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:61503&r=cwa |
| By: | Armagan Tuna Aktuna-Gunes (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne - Paris School of Economics); François Gardes (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne - Paris School of Economics); Christophe Starzec (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne - Paris School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In this article, the size of informal economy is measured by using the full price method proposed by Gardes F. (2014). As an extension of this method, price elasticities are re-estimated by integrating the underreported earning shares both for wage workers and self-employers from cross-sectional data covering 2003-2006 in Turkey. The contribution of this paper is threefold: The size of informal economy is estimated by a statistical matching of the Turkish Family Budget and Time Use surveys through a complete demand system including full prices. Second, more accurate price and income elasticities are estimated by using the monetary incomes from informal activities for an emerging economy such as Turkey. Third, extended full price estimation of demand elasticities allow us to discover for which consumption group households are more likely to engage in informal work. |
| Keywords: | Informal economy, complete demand system, full prices, demand elasticity. |
| JEL: | E26 D1 D12 J22 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:14088&r=cwa |
| By: | Tuncer Bulutay (Turkish Economic Association, Ankara, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | Açıklamalarıma T. Kuhn’un 1960’larda ileri sürdüğü önemli görüşlerini aktarmakla başlayacağım. Bilindiği gibi Kuhn bir normal, bir de devrimci bilim olduğu görüşündedir. Normal bilimde bir bakıma bilim dalına egemen olan bakış açısının (paradigmanın) ilkelerine, temel yasalarına uyularak hareket edilir, araştırmalar yapılır. Ama hiçbir bilim dalı bu normal işlemleriyle her sorunu ele alamaz, alsa da çözemez, bazı sorunlar, temel bakışına uymayan terslikler (anomalies) çözülmez kalır. Bu tür sorunların birikimi ve önemlerinin artması yeni, farklı bakış açılarına gereksinim yaratır, sonuçta yeni bir bakış açısı ortaya çıkar. Bu geçiş aşaması bir devrimci bilim safhası ya da etkinliğidir. Farklı, hatta ters bakış açısı alana egemen olduğunda normal bilim artık daha çok bu yeni ya da eski olup şimdi öne çıkan bakış açısı çerçevesinde yapılır. Eski bakış açısına göre yapılan çalışmalar da ortadan kalkmaz, hiç olmazsa bir süre varlıklarını sürdürebilirler. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tek:wpaper:2015/04&r=cwa |
| By: | Mohamed Ihsan Ajwad; Ilhom Abdulloev; Robin Audy; Stefan Hut; Joost de Laat; Igor Kheyfets; Jennica Larrison; Zlatko Nikoloski; Federico Torracchi |
| Abstract: | This report addresses a fundamental question facing policymakers in Uzbekistan: are worker skills hindering employment outcomes? The main finding of the report is that, indeed, worker skills gaps are hindering employment outcomes in Uzbekistan. In fact, employers—particularly formal sector employers—seek workers who possess both cognitive and non-cognitive skills. The higher employability and higher wage rates among higher skilled workers is mostly explained by the use of those skills in workplaces. But, skills gaps persist, leading a large share of employers to report shortages of high-skilled workers. These shortages are resulting in high wage premiums—tertiary graduates earn on average 55 percent more than similar workers with a general secondary education. However, large variations in observed skills among adults with the same level of educational attainment indicate that formal education is failing too many people. The report outlines weaknesses in the way skills are formed in Uzbekistan. While skills are developed during different stages in the life cycle and a host of actors are involved—families, for example, play a central role—the education and training system has a mixed record in skill formation. The report argues that the government could do more to align the skills imparted through the education and training system with the needs of employers. The government can also do more to get children off to the right start by investing in early childhood development, where rates of return to investment are generally very high and important soft skills are learned. Finally, more can be done to match the supply of skills with employer demand by improving the use of information in matching skills to jobs in the labor market. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2014–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:60023&r=cwa |
| By: | Mohamed Ihsan Ajwad; Stefan Hut; Ilhom Abdulloev; Robin Audy; Joost de Laat; Sachiko Kataoka; Jennica Larrison; Zlatko Nikoloski; Federico Torracchi |
| Abstract: | This report addresses a fundamental question facing policy makers in Tajikistan: is the current level of worker skills hindering employment outcomes? Using a unique household survey, the study finds that skills are valued in Tajikistan’s labor market, yet skills gaps persist. Jobs have been created in more knowledge-intensive occupations and in the service sector as opposed to the more traditional manual jobs, and employment outcomes are stronger for workers with better skills. Analysis of worker skills shows that workers with better cognitive and non-cognitive skills are typically more likely to have the highly sought-after formal sector jobs; and in fact make more frequent and intense use of mathematics and reading skills on the job. Furthermore, workers with better non-cognitive skills tend to become supervisors. The study finds that there are large variations in observed skills among those with the same level of educational attainment, indicating that formal education is failing too many people even though skills are developed during different stages in the life cycle and a host of actors are involved—families, for example, play a central role. The report’s conclusion is that the government could shift the focus from providing access to educational institutions and instead focus on providing the skills (cognitive, non-cognitive, and technical) students need to succeed as adults. The government can also do more to get children off to the right start by investing in early childhood development programs, where rates of return to investment are generally very high and important soft skills are learned. Finally, more can be done to match worker skills with employer demand by improving the use of information in matching skills to jobs in the labor market. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2014–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:60024&r=cwa |