|
on Central and Western Asia |
|
Issue of 2015‒01‒19
eighteen papers chosen by Christian Zimmermann Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis |
| By: | Fulya Memisoglu |
| Abstract: | Turkey, at the crossroads of Europe, Middle East and Asia, has confronted with mounting pressures of mixed migration flows in recent decades. This paper aims to explore Turkey’s contemporary approach to migration management by focusing on the adoption of the country’s first comprehensive immigration law (Law on Foreigners and International Protection) and the signing of the readmission agreement with the European Union in 2013. This incorporates an analysis of both policy continuities and changes in migration management in Turkey, while also providing an understanding of the interplay between internal and external factors, namely internationalisation and Europeanisation processes and the responsiveness of domestic actors to such pressures. The paper argues that migration policies driven solely by state-centric concerns are becoming increasingly inefficient in responding to the challenges caused by interlinked pressures of globalisation and multi-layered migratory flows. As Turkey’s role as a transit and receiving country grows, issues of international migration, and irregular migration in particular, are becoming dynamic topics in defining its role in a globalised world and as well as the trajectory of its relations with the EU. |
| Keywords: | Turkey; Europeanization |
| Date: | 2014–12–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erp:euirsc:p0419&r=cwa |
| By: | Leyla Mocan (Federal Reserve Board of Governors) |
| Abstract: | In 1997 Turkey passed a law making middle school completion compulsory, increasing the mandatory education from 5 to 8 years. At the time of this policy change, only 3-in-5 students were completing middle school in Turkey. In this paper, I employ data from the 2011 and 2012 Turkish Household Labor Force Survey to investigate the effect of this law on educational attainment, the impact of the increase in education on wages, and to explore how this varied across individuals. The results indicate that the fraction of children completing middle school increased more than 20 percentage points as a result of this reform. The effects were especially pronounced for girls (particularly those living in rural areas): I estimate that as a result of the reform, an additional half a million girls attained a middle school diploma. There are also considerable spillover effects into high school completion rates. Despite the large policy-induced increase in educational attainment, I find little evidence of a corresponding increase in labor force participation or full-time work. The results suggest large wage gains of about 14 percent per year of schooling, with these benefits concentrated among females. Taken together, the findings demonstrate that the policy change induced a dramatic change in educational attainment among the youth of this predominantly Muslim developing country, but that the economic benefits of the change were limited to women. |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1424&r=cwa |
| By: | Celbis M.G.; Crombrugghe D.P.I. de (UNU-MERIT) |
| Abstract: | This study presents novel evidence regarding the role of regional internet infrastructure in reducing regional per capita income disparities. We base our study on the assumptions that 1 the diffusion of information homogenizes regional economies through reducing the dissimilarities in institutions and culture, and 2 the telecommunication capacity, represented as the internet infrastructure of a region, facilitates this flow of information. Using the data from the 26 statistical regions of Turkey, we find evidence that internet infrastructure has contributed to regional convergence during the period 1999-2011. We also observe that the Turkish economic geography is defined by a strong core-periphery pattern and significant spatial clustering. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data); Public Goods; Telecommunications; Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure; Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence; Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; |
| JEL: | R12 L96 E20 H41 O18 O47 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2014078&r=cwa |
| By: | Ucal, Meltem; Bilgin, Mehmet Hüseyin; Haug, Alfred A. |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how foreign direct investment (FDI) and other determinants impact income inequality in Turkey in the short- and long-run. We apply the ARDL (Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag) modelling approach, which is suitable for small samples. The data for the study cover the years from 1970 to 2008. The empirical results indicate the existence of a cointegration relationship among the variables. The positive impact of the FDI growth rate on income inequality, worsening inequality, is shown to be significant in the short-run, though at the 10% significance level only and with a quantitatively small impact, and insignificant in the long-run. In other words, FDI increases income inequality initially somewhat but this effect disappears in the long run. The literacy rate clearly reduces inequality in the long run, but also in the short run. On the other hand, population growth worsens inequality in the long run, and the effect is quite large, though it has no statistically significant effect on inequality in the short run. Also, an increase in GDP growth reduces inequality especially in the short run (at a 5% level of significance) but also in the long run (though only at the 10% level). |
| Keywords: | Income inequality, foreign direct investment, ARDL estimation, FM-OLS estimation, Turkey |
| JEL: | C13 C32 D31 F21 |
| Date: | 2014–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:61104&r=cwa |
| By: | Akarçay- Gürbüz, Ayça; Polat, Sezgin |
| Abstract: | We evaluate public-private sector wage differentials in Turkey for the years 2005 and 2011, a period marked by educational upgrading and restructuring in public employment. Using micro data from Household Labour Force Surveys we find a positive premium for low wage earners and a penalty of working in the public sector at the higher end of the distribution. Although the penalty has not disappeared, the price effect has increased, especially at the end of the distribution owing to a relatively uneven wage increase in the private sector along the distribution, rather than an explicit public wage policy. |
| Keywords: | employment; wage differentials; decomposition; quantile regression |
| JEL: | C31 J31 J45 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:60872&r=cwa |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. European Dept. |
| Abstract: | KEY ISSUES Context: Turkey’s economy has grown on average by 6 percent annually since 2010, but this has come at the expense of a persistently large external deficit making the economy sensitive to changes in external financing conditions. Inflation is high and above the authorities’ target, and real policy interest rates remain negative. The exchange rate continues to be stronger than suggested by fundamentals. Challenges: Policies should focus on rebalancing the economy, reducing the external deficit—by boosting savings rather than decreasing investment—and lowering inflation to preserve competitiveness. Over the medium term, implementation of the ambitious structural reform agenda is critical to raising potential growth. Key policy recommendations: • Fiscal policy should be tighter, raising domestic savings by increasing the primary surplus by 2 percent of GDP by 2017. • Renewing the focus of monetary policy on the inflation target, by setting and sustaining a positive real policy interest rate. • Expanding the (macro)prudential toolkit to contain risks to financial stability, in particular the banking system’s wholesale external foreign exchange funding. Traction of past Fund advice: The authorities and staff agree that the external imbalance should be reduced, and that this should be done while preserving investment. They also concur that lowering inflation is a key objective. Moreover, to preserve financial stability, the authorities introduced well-targeted macroprudential measures to slow the rise in household leverage and encourage banks to increase core funding. They plan to tackle structural issues through the 10th Development Plan. However, the authorities believe risks are lower than what staff believes and that the economy has enough buffers to withstand reasonable shocks. Thus fiscal and monetary policies would remain more accommodative than recommended by staff. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultation reports;Economic growth;Capital inflows;Fiscal risk;Fiscal policy;Debt sustainability;Monetary policy;Banking sector;Macroprudential Policy;Economic indicators;Staff Reports;Press releases;Turkey; |
| Date: | 2014–12–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:14/329&r=cwa |
| By: | Tamara G. Nezhina (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In this theory-based article, the author examines how the cultural and anthropological or ethnocentric theory of corruption by Van Roy (1970) explains the emergence of systemic corruption in the Republic of Kazakhstan. Research findings are based on the secondary data analysis, which allows establishing theoretical connections among the economic transition, the culture and the systemic corruption in Kazakhstan. Following the Van Roy’s theory, the author determines that the emergence of systemic corruption was incentivized by cultural factors such as the transformation of the society and the corresponding value shift, and by the ethnocentric factors such as the parochial traditions of the country. The author analyzes the influence of the economic transition programs, known as the “shock therapy,” on the impoverishment of citizens, the high level of the acceptance of corruption and the effects of clan culture in Kazakhstan from 1991 until modern days. The author determines that the above factors were present in the country during the economic overhaul of 1991, and logically establishes the relationships between these factors and the systemic corruption. The author argues that culture matters in the process of economic and social development, and that the economists, who typically pay little attention to culture variables, should integrate these variables in their models of economic development. As experience of economic transition in Kazakhstan shows, culture may enhance or impede the success of economic transformation. The experience of Kazakhstan can be extrapolated to other countries in transition. |
| Keywords: | systemic corruption, cultural and ethnocentric theory, Republic of Kazakhstan |
| JEL: | O10 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:23/pa/2014&r=cwa |
| By: | Roman Yu. Pochekaev (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Mikhail Speranskiy, outstanding Russian statesman and legislator of the first half of the 19th century was the Siberian Governor-General from 1819-1821. The main result of this stage in his career was the reform of government in Asiatic Russia as well as development in 1822 of a set of codes – rules and regulations – for Siberia and its peoples. Speranskiy tried to incorporate his theoretical views on the state and law into these codifications. One of them were the “Rules on the Siberian Kirghiz” which provided reforms of the government system of Kazakhs (“Kirghiz” in the Russian pre-revolutionary tradition) of the Middle Horde which were under the control of Siberian regional authorities. The Middle Horde became a place for practical experimentation for Speranskiy’s ideas. Previous researchers have paid more attention to consequences of the promulgation of the “Rules on the Siberian Kirghiz” on the further history of Kazakhstan. This paper clarifies which specific ideas of Speranskiy on the state and law were reflected in the “Rules on the Siberian Kirghiz” and answers the question of whether they had practical importance. A substantial part of the “Rules on the Siberian Kirghiz” was, in fact, ineffective and didn’t use in practice because of lack of knowledge of Speranskiy on Kazakhs and his underestimation of their political and legal level. At the same time, authority of Speranskiy in the Russia of the 19th c. as legislator and reformer was so high that his “Rules on the Siberian Kirghiz” became actual until 1860s when next substantial reforms in Kazakhstan took place |
| Keywords: | Mikhail Speranskiy, Russian Empire, Kazakhstan, “Rules on the Siberian Kirghiz”, traditions and modernization, political and legal reforms, imperial legislation, traditional law |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:43/law/2014&r=cwa |
| By: | Resul Cesur; Bahadir Dursun; Naci Mocan |
| Abstract: | Although the impact of education on health is important for economic policy in developing countries, the overwhelming majority of research to identify the health returns to education has been done using data from developed countries. We use data from three waves of a nationally-representative health survey, conducted between 2008 and 2012 in Turkey, and exploit an education reform that increased the mandatory years of schooling from 5 to 8 years in 1997. Using exposure to the reform as an instrument for education, we find that for women ages 18-30, education has no impact on self-reported health, BMI, overweight, obesity, or on the propensity or intensity of smoking. Education does not influence women’s daily consumption of fruits, vegetables, or their propensity to get a flu shot either. The same results are obtained for men of the same age group with one exception: education increases men’s BMI and the propensity to be overweight and obese. Potential explanations for these findings are provided. |
| JEL: | I1 I12 I15 I21 I25 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20764&r=cwa |
| By: | Zeynalov, Ayaz |
| Abstract: | This research will analyze the effects of the similarities in economic size and institutional level on bilateral trade. It is interested whether similarities at the country size and institutional level encourage international trade between countries. Using panel data of the bilateral trade of Azerbaijan with 50 different countries from 1995 to 2012 estimating by the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method, it is expecting that similarity at the income size is not necessary for increasing bilateral trade across countries, on the contrary, country has interest to trade with dissimilar economic-size countries. Institutional similarity is expecting plays pivot role in international relationships and it has positive impact on bilateral trade. |
| Keywords: | international trade, gravity model, economic growth, institutions |
| JEL: | F14 P33 P48 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:60943&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Investment and Investment Climate Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Subnational Economic Development Public Sector Expenditure Policy Public Sector Development |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:20750&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Public Sector Expenditure Policy Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Public Sector Economics Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Subnational Economic Development Public Sector Development |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:20772&r=cwa |
| By: | Irina Denisova; Polina Kuznetsova |
| Abstract: | The main objectives of this paper are to estimate the burden of tobacco-caused mortality as a whole and by main tobacco-related diseases in Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine, and to assess the distributional health impact of an increase in tobacco taxation in these three countries. According to the results obtained, in 2012 smoking caused around 310,000 deaths in Russia, about 70,000 in Ukraine, and 14,300 in Kazakhstan, representing a key factor of mortality among the working-age population. Using data from various sources, the paper estimates the distributional consequences of a hypothetical tax rise in the three countries that leads to an approximately 30 percent increase of the average retail price of cigarettes. The analysis includes an estimation of changes in smoking prevalence, mortality, life expectancy, and public health expenditures by income quintile and gender. Considered excise growth can lead to about 3.5 to 4.0 percent fall in smoking prevalence, which in turn can avert about 600,000 tobacco-related deaths in Russia, 140,000 in Ukraine, and 30,000 in Kazakhstan over a 50 years period. Reduced tobacco-related morbidity will also result in substantial decrease in health expenditures for the treatment of tobacco-related diseases. Positive health effects are expected to be pro-poor, as almost 60 percent of the reduction in mortality is concentrated in the two lower-income quintiles of the population of the three countries. |
| Keywords: | Addiction, adult population, Age Groups, age mortality, alcohol, alcohol abuse, alcohol consumption, arteriosclerosis, cancers, cardiovascular diseases, Causes of Death ... See More + Cigarette, Cigarette Taxes, Circulatory System, citizens, Clinical Research, Cost Effectiveness, current smoking, death rates, dependence, Developing Countries, Disease Control, economic costs, Economics of Tobacco Control, EFFECTS OF TOBACCO, excise taxes, female mortality, females, Global Health, health care, health care system, Health Consequences, health effects, health impact, Health Insurance, health system, health systems, heart disease, intervention, life expectancy, lifestyles, long-term smokers, lung cancer, male mortality, Medical Care, Medicine, Ministry of Health, morbidity, mortality, mortality rate, mortality reduction, neoplasms, Nicotine, number of deaths, number of people, Nutrition, Peer Reviewers, Population Processes, premature mortality, PRICE ELASTICITY, Price Increases, price of cigarettes, Price Policies, public health, pulmonary disease, Respect, respiratory diseases, Risk Factors, smoker, smokers, smoking, smoking cessation, smoking prevalence, smoking prevalence data, smoking rates, Social Impact, Tobacco Addiction, tobacco consumption, Tobacco Control, tobacco control measures, Tobacco Control Policies, tobacco excises, tobacco industry, tobacco products, Tobacco Research, tobacco smoking, tobacco tax, Tobacco Tax Increases, tobacco taxation, TOBACCO TAXES, TOBACCO USE, tobacco-related disease, tobacco-related diseases, tobacco-related illnesses, treatment, Tuberculosis, working-age population, World Health Organization, young women |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hnpdps:92765&r=cwa |
| By: | Lamazoshvili Beka |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of oil price fluctuations on oil-importing developing economies focusing on Armenia and Georgia as examples of a small open economy. Our analysis takes into account the underlying sources of the increase in oil prices and the structure of energy flows. Our objective is to understand the role of oil price jumps in the context of endogeneity of oil prices to global economic activity and to identify the key channels of transmission (compared to the developed countries). Using the methodology of Kilian (2009a), we decompose the oil price shocks based on the original source of the increase. We conclude that accounting for underlying reasons for the increase in oil prices in the world energy markets is important for understanding the impact of oil shocks on the small open economies under study. The identified responses of key macroeconomic variables suggest that demand channel may be an important transmission factor. Given the high share of food items in the CPI of the developing economies under study, increased world real activity is likely to translate into increased food prices directly as well as indirectly through higher oil prices. The structure of energy flows and the politics of natural gas matter for the transmission of oil shocks. |
| JEL: | C32 E32 Q43 |
| Date: | 2014–11–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:14/06e&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Health Monitoring and Evaluation Public Sector Expenditure Policy Health Economics and Finance Health Systems Development and Reform Health, Nutrition and Population - Population Policies Public Sector Development |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:20771&r=cwa |
| By: | Randall Blair; Kenneth Fortson; Joanne Lee; Anu Rangarajan |
| Abstract: | This working paper used a randomized controlled trial to estimate the effectiveness of a U.S. government-funded farmer assistance program that trained more than 50,000 farmers throughout Armenia. Training did not increase household income or consumption, or affect mediating outcomes, such as adoption of agricultural practices or changes in cultivation of crops, suggesting that longer-term impacts are unlikely to materialize. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Aid, Agricultural, Armenia, International , Working paper |
| JEL: | F Z |
| Date: | 2013–08–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:74d16d1a54bd430eb39d64979cf38acc&r=cwa |
| By: | Timur Kuran (Duke University); Jared Rubin (Chapman University) |
| Abstract: | In advanced economies interest rates generally vary inversely with the borrower’s socio-economic status, because status tends to depend inversely on default risk. Both of these relationships depend critically on the impartiality of the law. Specifically, they require a lender to be able to sue a recalcitrant borrower in a sufficiently impartial court. Where the law is markedly biased in favor of elites, privileged socio-economic classes will pay a premium for capital. This is because they pose a greater risk to lenders who have limited means of punishing them. Developing the underlying theory, this paper also tests it through a data set consisting of judicial records from Ottoman Istanbul, 1602-1799. Pre-modern Istanbul offers an ideal testing ground, because rule of law existed but was highly partial. Court data show that titled elites, men, and Muslims all paid higher interest rates conditional on various loan characteristics. A general implication is that elites have much to gain from instituting impartially enforced rules in financial markets even as they strive to maintain privileges in other domains. It is no coincidence that in the Ottoman Empire the beginnings of legal modernization included the establishment of relatively impartial commercial courts. |
| Keywords: | Rule of law, elite, status, religion, gender, court, interest rate, credit, financial market, Ottoman Empire, Istanbul, Islam, Islamic law, sharia |
| JEL: | G10 K42 N2 N4 N95 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chu:wpaper:14-22&r=cwa |
| By: | Kristina Meier |
| Abstract: | It is often assumed that international labor migration from Tajikistan, while having no noticeable effects on investment (usually defined as medium and long-term consumption, such as education, or investment into housing or business), on average leads to an increase in short-term consumption, mostly food. In this paper, a simple household-level model determining the migration decision is developed and tested empirically. In a second step, the effect of low-skilled labor migration on household expenditure shares is analyzed using 2SLS. While only weak effects of migration measured by a simple dummy are visible, repeating the analysis using the length of the migration spell instead, as well as its squared term, reveals that labor migration apparently takes a while to "kick in" and become profitable to those remaining at home. The observed long-term effects on household consumption patterns, albeit being rather small, actually speak in favour of investment of remittances, with the respective shares increasing over time, while the budget share spent on food slowly decreases. |
| Keywords: | labor migration, remittances, consumption shares, Tajikistan |
| JEL: | J61 F22 I31 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1433&r=cwa |