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on Central and Western Asia |
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Issue of 2014‒12‒29
fourteen papers chosen by Christian Zimmermann Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis |
| By: | Kemal Türkcan (Department of Economics, Akdeniz University, Antalya, Turkey); Erhan Pişkin (Department of Economics, Akdeniz University, Antalya, Turkey.) |
| Abstract: | The present paper examines the effects of the Customs Union (CU) and Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) on Turkey’s extensive and intensive margins. For this purpose, using highly disaggregated product-level data at the six-digit product level of Harmonized System, we first decompose Turkey’s export to 172 countries over the period 1996-2011 into extensive and intensive margins, following the decomposition approach by Hummels and Klenow (2005). We then investigate the effects of the CU and FTAs on Turkey’s extensive and intensive margins using a standard gravity model. The same analyses are carried out for different categories of goods (final goods and intermediate goods exports). The empirical analyses show that the effects of the CU and FTAs on the extensive and intensive margins are statistically significant. Furthermore, the results suggest that the CU has larger impact on the extensive and intensive margins than FTAs. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tek:wpaper:2014/10&r=cwa |
| By: | K.Ali Akkemik; Erisa Dautaj Şenerdem |
| Abstract: | Turkey is among top ten countries in the world tourism market in terms of international tourist arrivals and international tourism revenues. Tourism sector has grown rapidly over the last three decades and emerged as an important foreign exchange earner. It is argued that tourism creates opportunities for employment and contributes to economic growth and international tourism revenues compensate part of the current account deficit, which has traditionally been a major source of structural problems in Turkey. Tourism policies, therefore, may have important implications at the macro level. Recently the government published a strategy paper for tourism titled "Tourism Strategy of Turkey - 2023". In this study, we critically analyze the tourism strategy of Turkey using a dynamic applied computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The model is a multi-sector, multi-country CGE model based on the GTAP model. The model includes 14 sectors and 12 regions. The sectoral disaggregation of the model emphasizes tourism-related activities. We use the GTAP database and run policy simulations to assess alternative tourism strategies as well as the potential impacts of exogenous shocks. The results bear important policy implications for the economy. . |
| JEL: | C68 L83 |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa14p891&r=cwa |
| By: | Luca, Davide; Rodriguez-Pose, Andres |
| Abstract: | One of the most important decisions that governments face is how to allocate the public resources necessary for development, given each country’s budget constraints. According to the literature on the links between wealth and institutional performance, highly kleptocratic countries are expected to show higher levels of politicisation of the public purse. The article tests the extent to which socioeconomic criteria (equity and efficiency) or electoral concerns determined the geographical distribution of public investment in the 81 provinces of Turkey between 2004 and 2012. Our results show that, although electoral concerns mattered for the allocation, socioeconomic measures remained the most relevant predictors of investment. Moreover, in contrast to official regional development policy principles, the Turkish state tended to favour areas with a higher level of development over those with greater ‘socioeconomic need’. Our results therefore challenge much of the distributive politics literature, which has overly emphasised the role of pork-barrel in public policy-making. At the same time, they underline the need of paying more attention to the political economy of regional development strategies. |
| Keywords: | distributive politics; political geography; public investments; regional development policies; Turkey |
| JEL: | H76 O12 O53 R12 R58 |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10043&r=cwa |
| By: | Dudu, Hasan; Cakmak, Erol H. |
| Abstract: | The effects of climate change in Turkey are expected to be significant. The aim of this paper is to quantify the effects of climate change on the overall economy by using an integrated framework incorporating a computable general equilibrium model and a c |
| Keywords: | agriculture, climate change, computable general equilibrium, integrated assessment, Turkey |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2014-106&r=cwa |
| By: | Furuoka, Fumitaka |
| Abstract: | Unemployment hysteresis is an important but rather controversial issue in applied economics because the existence of hysteresis in unemployment rate poses a challenge to a central building-block of macroeconomic theory. The current paper chooses five Central Asian countries, namely Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, as a case study to examine the unemployment hysteresis for the period of 1991-2012. The number of observation is 22. In order to overcome the insufficient data, this paper uses the Bootstrap method to estimate the critical values (Park, 2003). For the purpose of empirical analysis, this paper uses the SURADF tests (Breuer et al., 2002) and the Fourier ADF tests (Enders and Lee, 2012). The univariate unit root tests indicates that unemployment rate in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan can be the stationary process and unemployment rates in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan can be the unit root process. The panel unit root indicates that unemployment rate in the Central Asia can be the stationary process. Overall, the current study concludes that unemployment rates in Central Asia can be best described as stationary process in line with the natural rate hypothesis. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment hysteresis, Central Asia, unit root, nonlinear |
| JEL: | E24 |
| Date: | 2014–11–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:60323&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank Group |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2014–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:20670&r=cwa |
| By: | Senem Kozaman |
| Abstract: | After 1980's as a result of neo-liberal policies in development strategies of Turkey, coastal areas exposed a massive pressure on its environmental resources. Attractiveness of natural amenities and due to encouragement with regulations for tourism sector development caused population growth and agglomeration of real estate investments in these areas. Also, this process has triggered degradation of environmental values. Paradoxically, the coastal management policies and protection mechanisms gained significance for the sustainability of natural resources. All these mechanisms have revealed the importance of understanding and assessing the vulnerability of these areas with regards to continuing trends of environmental and social change and natural resource consumption that restricts sustainability. From this point of view, this research is focused on the evaluation of vulnerability to these changes in Aegean cost side of Turkey; Izmir - Aydýn - Muðla Provinces. Assessment of vulnerability is based on the definition of IPCC that identify the vulnerability as a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. With a basic analytical framework, it's assumed that vulnerability will increase as the sensitivity rise and decrease as adaptive capacity improves. Another assumption is built on the concept of sensitivity. It is defined as the changing trends in social and environmental indicators (land-use change, population growth, water and energy consumption, waste generation etc.) that demonstrate pressure and threat to socio-ecological system. Furthermore, exposure component is excluded from the evaluation. Adaptive capacity index is based on normalization of social, economic, environmental, pyhsical, institutional capital indicators and arithmetic means of these components. This framework will help to understand, compare and exhibit a geographical pattern of vulnerability in the study area. |
| Keywords: | vulnerability; sensitivity; adaptive capacity; social changes; environmental changes; coast; Turkey |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa14p1668&r=cwa |
| By: | Resul Cesur (University of Connecticut); Naci Mocan (Louisiana State University, NBER and IZA) |
| Abstract: | Using a unique survey of adults in Turkey, we find that an increase in educational attainment, due to an exogenous secular education reform, decreased women’s propensity to identify themselves as religious, lowered their tendency to wear a religious head cover (head scarf, turban or burka) and increased the tendency for modernity. We also find that education has a negative impact on women’s propensity to vote for Islamic parties. The impact of education on religiosity and voting preference is not working through migration, residential location or labor force participation. There is no statistically significant impact of education on men’s tendency to vote for Islamic parties and education does not influence the propensity to cast a vote in national elections for either men or women. |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1422&r=cwa |
| By: | Fadim Yavuz; Ayla Bozdað |
| Abstract: | Cihanbeyli, located in Salt Lake (SL) Basin, is the largest county of Turkey in terms of its area. In total 56.105 people live in the county and its rural population is 7.005. According to data of 2011 year, Cihanbeyli's social development level is at the tenth of 31 counties of the Konya province and the county is among the least developed counties' group. SL basin is an important wetland in Turkey in terms of biodiversity conservation and international criteria. The most important economic activities in the area are agriculture, livestock and industrial salt production. All the cultivated land is reserved for dry farming and vegetable and fruit production is at negligible quantity. Lack of forested areas, existence of barren lands, insufficient water resources for the agriculture with the impact of the SL, Being one of the Turkey's low rainfall areas, transforming the domestic and industrial waste of Konya city directly to the SL's are the negative factors affecting the agriculture in the region. Depending on the threat of drought, significant productivity and quality issues are being experienced in the region's rural area. In the region agricultural production is decreasing due to drought and intense population immigration from the county's rural areas. Desertification caused by SL, furthermore aridity caused by manufacturers' improper fertilizer uses exist in agricultural areas. Range of products is limited as a result of unconscious agricultural production. Wheat, barley and sugar beet are the products commonly grown. By identifying the obstacles against the Cihanbeyli region's economy this study aims to determine sustainable strategies activate/improve agriculture as a main source of income, thereby improve economy of the region. Results are useful in i) referring agricultural activities to the areas have good physical and environmental conditions and may achieve maximum efficiency in countryside, ii) improving non-agricultural uses in the areas are unsuitable for agriculture and low efficient, iii) avoiding the construction and environmental pressures on suitable farmland. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural land suitability; sustainable economic development; Cihanbeyli; Salt Lake Basin; |
| JEL: | Q01 Q15 Q18 |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa14p1268&r=cwa |
| By: | Aldashev, Alisher (Kazakh-British Technical University of Almaty); Danzer, Alexander M. (University of Munich) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the economic returns to language skills and bilingualism. The analysis is staged in Kazakhstan, a multi-ethnic country with complex ethnic settlement patterns that has switched its official state language from Russian to Kazakh. Using two newly assembled data sets, we find negative returns to speaking Kazakh and a negative effect of bilingualism on earnings while Russian was the official state language in the 1990s. Surprisingly, the Kazakh language continues to yield a negative wage premium 13 years after it has been made official state language. While we do neither find evidence for an ethnically segmented labor market nor for reverse causality, the low economic value of the Kazakh language can be explained by the comparatively poor quality of schools with Kazakh as language of instruction. Based on PISA data, we illustrate that scholastic achievements are substantially lower for pupils taught in Kazakh, despite the official support for the titular language. Our results suggest that switching the official state language without appropriate investments in school resources is unlikely to cure the economic disadvantage of a previously marginalized language. |
| Keywords: | bilingualism, returns to language skills, wage premium, language policy, language of instruction |
| JEL: | J24 I21 P23 O15 |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8624&r=cwa |
| By: | Nevin Gültekin |
| Abstract: | As an extension of the urban regeneration process initiated in Turkey during the years of 2000, the concept of renewal-based preservation approach is being implemented through rehabilitation and regeneration projects designed for areas of cultural heritage. Once the capital holders and the political power discovered the financial benefits to be endowed by cultural heritage into the fields of tourism and urban profits, such projects of rehabilitation and regeneration displace the projects of conservation. In this process, instead of the building which is classified as a cultural heritage, the piece of land on which it is located is considered as an area of investment in the real-estate capital market. Therefore, and in line with this consideration, such implementations of demolishing the old buildings and constructing new buildings in their place, or constructing new buildings referencing the past, are supported by laws, even to the extent that legislation alterations are made contrary to conservation. As such, regeneration projects generally implemented utilizing public financing and public mediation are rapidly realized instead of achieving the concept of integrated conservation planning which envisages transparent, participatory, partaker development. Hence, gentrifications turn out to be inevitable through the functional alterations of the cultural heritage areas which are regenerated as touristic, commercial and recreational areas. However, disowning the public and societal benefits targeted at with the concept of conservation, the urban regeneration and/or renewal that slid over to urban value increase concept is evaluated as success in urban conservation. This state will be examined through the Hamamönü area which is registered as a preservation area by law and which is an area that exhibits the traditional, historical and urban weaving of the city of Ankara. Hamamönü project was initiated in the year 2006 and a large proportion of it is completed. The implementation of rehabilitation projects with its different phases and methods were first started to be applied over this area. This area is selected as the case to be studied since it discloses the conservation policies implemented in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | urban conservation policy; urban rehabilitation; gentrification; Ankara-Turkey |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa14p651&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank Group |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policies Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Environment |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:20673&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank Group |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Environmental Economics and Policies Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Environment Social Protections and Labor |
| Date: | 2014–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:20671&r=cwa |
| By: | Hofman, Irna; Visser, Oane |
| Abstract: | After more than two decades of agrarian change in Tajikistan, farming structures seem to crystallise. The first signs towards farm individualisation were observed only around 2000, which were the result of significant pressure from outside, when the post-conflict state was highly susceptible to pressure from multilateral institutions. Over time, striking differences in agrarian structures have emerged nation-wide; from highly fragmented, autonomous farms, to elite-controlled large-scale cotton farming. In this paper we analyse and describe the Tajik path of reform, and locate the Tajik case amongst the other reformers in the CIS. We use a political economy and geographical approach to understand the way in which different geographies of transition have emerged in the aftermath of the Soviet collapse. Particular pathways of reform are conditioned by geographical factors, in which in turn, a local political economy comes into play that further shapes the emergence of particular farm models over time. |
| Abstract: | Nach mehr als zwei Jahrzehnten der postsowjetischen Transformation in Tadschikistan scheinen sich (verschiedene) Strukturen in der Landwirtschaft heraus zu kristallisieren. Die ersten Anzeichen in Richtung einer Individualisierung waren erst im Jahr 2000 zu erkennen. Dies geschah vor allem aufgrund erheblichen Druckes von außen, als der Post-Konflikt-Staat anfällig war für den Druck von multilateralen Institutionen. Im Laufe der Zeit entstanden landesweit markante Unterschiede in den Agrarstrukturen. Diese reichen von stark fragmentierten, autonomen Betrieben, bis hin zu Eliten-gesteuerte Großbetrieben in der Baumwollproduktion. In diesem Beitrag analysieren und beschreiben wir den tadschikischen Weg der Reformen und vergleichen den tadschikischen Fall mit anderen postsowjetischen Ländern. Wir verwenden einen politisch-ökonomischen sowie einen geographischen Ansatz, um die Art und Weise von Landreform und Agrartransformation zu verstehen. Der Verlauf der Reformen ist bedingt durch geographische Faktoren. Hier entwickeln sich wiederum lokale politische Ökonomien, die weitere Formen von bestimmten Bauernbetrieben prägen. |
| Keywords: | agrarian change,political economy,former Soviet Union,Central Asia,Agrartransformation,politische Ökonomie,ehemalige Sowjetunion,Zentralasien |
| JEL: | Q10 Q15 Z1 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iamodp:151&r=cwa |