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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Hakan Kara (Central Bank of Turkey); Cagri Sarikaya (Central Bank of Turkey) |
| Abstract: | Turkey’s high current account deficit has been at the core of macroeconomic policy discussions in recent years. Quantifying the role of cyclical factors in driving the current account fluctuations is essential for designing an appropriate policy response and evaluating the impact of policy measures. Using a simple methodology, this study extracts the cyclical component of the current account in Turkey, with special reference to its three main drivers; namely foreign demand, domestic demand and foreign trade prices. We argue that the underlying (cyclically-adjusted) current account deficit has displayed a persistent deteriorating trend during 1998-2007 period before stabilizing around 6 percent of GDP in recent years. Decomposing the current account deficit into cyclical and non-cyclical factors allows us to assess the impact of recent policy actions. Our computations suggest that, although the policies pursued by the central bank and other authorities since 2011 have removed the cyclical part to a great extent, there remains a sizeable component of the deficit to be dealt with more structural policies. |
| Keywords: | Current Account Balance, Foreign Trade, Business Cycle, Cyclical Adjustment, Filtering. |
| JEL: | E32 F14 F32 |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1420&r=cwa |
| By: | Gafarova, Gulmira; Perekhozuk, Oleksandr; Glauben, Thomas |
| Abstract: | As a result of some recent changes in the international wheat market, market shares of leading wheat exporters have recently altered. The Black Sea region countries – Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine (KRU) – have become important wheat exporters, since they implemented substantial restructuring in total agricultural production, consumption and trade in the 1990s, and subsequently achieved a massive increase in grain production during the 2000s. Consequently, the pricing behaviour of these countries has become a key issue. By applying the pricing-to-market model to annual wheat exports, this study analyses the price discriminating behaviour of the KRU exporters in foreign markets during 1996-2012. The results demonstrate that even though the KRU countries are able to exercise price discrimination in different importing countries, they usually face perfect competition in most destinations. |
| Keywords: | fixed-effects model, price discrimination, pricing-to-market, wheat export, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, |
| Date: | 2014–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi14:187583&r=cwa |
| By: | Wolters, Alexander |
| Abstract: | [Introduction ...] To analyze the transformation of the relations between secular states and the emerging Muslim societies in Central Asia this paper is divided into two sections. First I introduce into the cases by highlighting recent developments in religious awakening, "Islamic economics" and the "War on Terror". Second, I compare the state institutions, policies and actual practices to regulate the religious field in the five republics. I finally conclude on the politics of state engagement and the dynamics of state & society relations in Central Asia and possible further developments in Islamic economics in the region. I contend that development trajectories depend on the available space for political maneuvering that both state and society actors can use to engage one another. An open political system like the one in Kyrgyzstan promises more innovation and eventually more stable relations than a closed political system like the one in Uzbekistan, for example. Politics as an more or less open arena for exchange between opposing forces proves essential for the development of new institutions and practices, regardless of whether they are formalized or not. Only such social innovation allows states in the region to make use of Islam and religious faith in general to serve as a source for community strengthening and economic development, both much needed in the internationally pressured and politically instable region. To test my hypothesis I will rely for most parts on recent scholarly work about the "Islamic revival" in Central Asia and on research about the states' institutional settings. In addition news reports provide evidence on current events in the "War on Terror" and on "Islamic economic" practices in the region. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:pfhrps:201403&r=cwa |
| By: | Vorotnikova, Ekaterina; Asci, Serhat; Seale, James |
| Abstract: | After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russian economy was on the way to becoming more market-based. While the broadening of market forces in Russian agriculture seems plausible, there is little empirical evidence to support the proportion that land allocation decision among grains and oil-seeds are in large determined by output prices for the crops. The crops are wheat, barley, oats, corn, rye, soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower. In this chapter, a land allocation model developed recently by Vorotnikova, Asci and Seale (2013) is fit to post-Soviet data to determine if output prices for grains and oil-seeds significantly affect land allocation among these crops and by what magnitudes. We look at the effect of the relative export price changes on allocation of land among top eight top crops in agricultural production for Russia during the years 1992 to 2012. We have determined that most price responsive acreages are those of 1) soybeans, 2) corn, 3) sunflower, 4) wheat, 5) rye, 6) barley, and 7) other. Overall, we can conclude that Russian agriculture has become price responsive when it comes to the land allocation. |
| Keywords: | Post-Soviet Union agriculture, land allocation, price responsiveness, Crop Production/Industries, Land Economics/Use, Production Economics, |
| Date: | 2014–05–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea14:170681&r=cwa |
| By: | Cojocaru, Alexandru; Diagne, Mame Fatou |
| Abstract: | This paper examines support for reducing inequality and for income redistribution to specific groups in Europe and Central Asia. The paper uses the Life in Transition Survey to analyze cross-country differences in redistributive preferences and the determinants of individual-level differences in such preferences. The analysis tests for various possible motivations, such as self-interest, beliefs about the fairness of the income-generating process, past social mobility experience, or expectations of future social mobility. Fewer people wanted to reduce the gap between the rich and the poor in 2010 than in 2006 in transition countries. Support for redistribution toward specific groups is highest for the disabled and the elderly, but there is high heterogeneity across countries in support for various redistributive policies, as well as in the alignment between average beliefs and actual policies. The empirical analysis confirms the importance of beliefs about fairness in influencing redistributive preferences, together with self-interest and past and expected social mobility in European Union member states (Western European and new member states), but only to a limited extent in the non-European Union member state group of transition countries. Regarding redistribution to specific groups, self-interest appears to be an important motivation for support for the elderly and families with children, whereas values and beliefs are important drivers of support for the working poor and the unemployed. Although framing matters, the results are broadly robust to alternative measures of support for reducing inequality. |
| Keywords: | Rural Poverty Reduction,Inequality,Services&Transfers to Poor,Poverty Impact Evaluation,Gender and Law |
| Date: | 2014–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7097&r=cwa |