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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Türkcan, Kemal; Pişkin, Erhan |
| Abstract: | The objective of this study is to analyze the effects of the Customs Union (CU) and Free Trade Agreements (FTA) on the extensive and intensive margins. For this purpose, first, Turkey’s export data set composing HS-6 digit product level statistics for period 1996 to 2011 with 172 countries has been decomposed into extensive and intensive margins by using the decomposition method of export shares developed by Hummels and Klenow (2005) related Feenstra (1994). Then, effects of the CU and FTA on both extensive and intensive margins has been identified with the Gravity model. All analyzes has been performed for the exports of the total goods as well as the exports of the final and intermediate goods. Empirical results for the Gravity model show that the effects of the CU and FTA on the extensive and intensive margins are statistically significant. Furthermore, the effect of the CU on the extensive and intensive margins is greater than that of the FTA. |
| Keywords: | Free Trade Agreements, Customs Union, Extensive Margin, Intensive Margin |
| JEL: | F12 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2014–11–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:59841&r=cwa |
| By: | Ayse Guveli (University of Essex); Harry Ganzeboom (Free University Amsterdam); Helen Baykara-Krumme (Chemnitz University of Technology); Lucinda Platt (London School of Economics and Political Science); Şebnem Eroğlu (University Bristol); Niels Spierings (Radboud University Nijmegen); Sait Bayrakdar (University of Essex); Efe K Sozeri (Free University Amsterdam); Bernhard Nauck (Chemnitz University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Despite extensive recent advances in the empirical and theoretical study of migration, certain critical areas in the analysis of European migration remain relatively underdeveloped both theoretically and empirically. Specifically, we lack studies that both incorporate an origin comparison and trace processes of intergenerational transmission across migrants over multiple generations and incorporating family migration trajectories. This paper outlines the development, data and design of such a study, the 2000 Families study, framed within a theoretical perspective of ‘dissimilation’ from origins and over generations. We term the study an origins-of-migration study, in that it captures the country of origin, the family origins and potentially the originating causes of migration processes and outcomes. The resulting data comprised nearly 2,000 migrant and non-migrant Turkish families with members across three or more generations, covering. 50,000 individuals. We reflect on the potential of this study for migration research. |
| Keywords: | Migration, Europe, Turkey, dissimilation, intergenerational transmission, originsof- migration study |
| Date: | 2014–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nor:wpaper:2014007&r=cwa |
| By: | Aysenur Acar (Bahcesehir University Center for Economic and Social Research) |
| Abstract: | Over the past 20 years, poverty has conceived as a multidimensional issue, not only one-dimensional issue based on conventional indicators (i.e., income or expenditure). While a relatively huge literature has focused on the dynamic analysis of one-dimensional poverty, little attention has been given to the dynamics of multidimensional poverty. Using a panel data drawn from the Survey of Income and Living Conditions (SILC) in the years 2007-2010, this study focuses on the dynamics of multidimensional poverty in Turkey. The purposes of the study are twofold: the first is to identify “poor” in Turkey by proposing a multidimensional poverty measure that incorporates various dimensions closely related to the well-being of individuals (such as labor market, housing, health and living standards), and the second is to investigate how the new measure differs from other existing poverty measures (i.e., income poverty and EU material deprivation) by using random effect probit model. The findings show that the new measure is partially consistent with the other measures and multidimensional poverty decreased during the period under examination. Empirical work reveals that higher years of schooling, homeownership or being a rental/asset income recipient decreases the probability of being multidimensionally poor, while large household size, attachment to agricultural employment or being a social welfare income recipient increases the probability of being multidimensionally poor. |
| Keywords: | Multidimensional Poverty, Severe Material Deprivation, Relative Income Poverty |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bae:wpaper:014&r=cwa |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Serkan Çiçek (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Rumen Dobrinsky (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Vladimir Gligorov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Peter Havlik (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Leon Podkaminer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Hermine Vidovic (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Summary Despite near stagnation in the euro area and the negative impact of the Ukraine crisis, in most of the NMS economies and some of the Western Balkan countries growth prospects are viewed as positive. While the NMS economies will preserve their positive growth differential vis-à-vis the EU-28, Russia and Ukraine are facing a deterioration of their economic performance. External factors have had a major impact on growth performance in the CESEE region. Financial transfers from the EU have lent essential support to economic growth in the European Union’s new Member States (NMS). Investment and operational costs funded via those transfers have become an integral and increasingly important part of aggregate demand in the NMS economies. 2013 and 2014 have been among the strongest years in terms of transfers in the framework of the EU cohesion policy. Their impact is comparable to that of fiscal stimuli, albeit better inasmuch as they do not give rise to new debt. A possible disadvantage compared to classic fiscal stimuli is that transfers have no steerable relation to business cycles. In the eastern part of the CESEE region, the Ukraine conflict has had a pronounced negative impact on economic growth. 25 years after the fall of the Iron Curtain, the current crisis in relations between Russia and the West is evolving into a dangerous geopolitical conflict. In Ukraine, the main victim of the conflict, the economy may decline by 8% over the current year. In Russia, the costs of the conflict are estimated to be to the tune of about 1% of GDP, primarily on account of increased investment risks and the financial sanctions. The impact on the individual EU countries differs according to their exposure to the Russian market. The Baltic States and some other NMS will be those most affected on account of their trade channels with estimated losses in the order of up to 0.4% of GDP. The global financial crisis has shattered the rapid expansion of financial intermediation in nearly all of the countries in the region; recovery of crediting activities is still fragmentary and weak. High levels of non-performing loans are a major concern throughout much of the region. There seems to be a justified concern over the region having entered a period of ‘creditless recovery’ which threatens to be much slower than a recovery with strong credit growth. The outlook for GDP growth in the CESEE region is again fairly diversified. Compared to 2013, the growth performance is expected to improve in twelve and deteriorate in nine of the twenty-one countries in the region in 2014. The general medium-term trend for the NMS as a whole is seen to be positive in most of these countries, we expect a gradual acceleration of GDP growth; exceptions are Hungary and Slovenia where a deceleration is forecast, and Poland where the relatively high GDP growth rate will remain practically unchanged. For the current year, the assumption is that the NMS will grow by 1.8 percentage points higher than expansion in the euro area and 1.3 pp above the EU-28 average. In 2015, the gap in favour of NMS growth performance will become somewhat narrower 1.5 pp relative to the euro area and 1.1 pp to the EU-28 average. For some of the countries in the Western Balkans, growth prospects will only improve over the period 2015-2016, closely related to the damage caused by the floods this summer. Turkey will continue to register remarkable economic growth. Growth performance in Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine will worsen in the current year compared to 2013; the medium-term outlook in Russia and Ukraine is, depending on the evolution of the political crisis, fairly uncertain with considerable downward risks. As for our forecasts for 2015 and 2016, a further weakening of performance in the euro area poses a downward risk, while a longer lasting drop in oil prices will represent an upward risk, except for energy exporters Russia and Kazakhstan. |
| Keywords: | Central and East European new EU Member States, Southeast Europe, Balkans, Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Turkey, economic forecasts, employment, foreign trade, competitiveness, debt, financial crisis, deleveraging, exchange rates, fiscal consolidation, Ukraine conflict |
| JEL: | C33 C50 E20 E29 F34 G01 G18 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52 |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:fpaper:fc:autumn2014&r=cwa |
| By: | Alisher Aldashev (International School of Economics, Almaty); Alexander M. Danzer (Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Munich) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the economic returns to language skills and bilingualism. The analysis is staged in Kazakhstan, a multi-ethnic country with complex ethnic settlement patterns that has switched its official state language from Russian to Kazakh. Using two newly assembled data sets, we find negative returns to speaking Kazakh and a negative effect of bilingualism on earnings while Russian was the official state language in the 1990s. Surprisingly, the Kazakh language continues to yield a negative wage premium 13 years after it has been made official state language. While we do neither find evidence for an ethnically segmented labor market nor for reverse causality, the low economic value of the Kazakh language can be explained by the comparatively poor quality of schools with Kazakh as language of instruction. Based on PISA data, we illustrate that scholastic achievements are substantially lower for pupils taught in Kazakh, despite the official support for the titular language. Our results suggest that switching the official state language without appropriate investments in school resources is unlikely to cure the economic disadvantage of a previously marginalized language. |
| Keywords: | Bilingualism, returns to language skills, wage premium, language policy, language of instruction |
| JEL: | J24 I21 P23 O15 |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:1440&r=cwa |
| By: | Armagan-Tuna Aktuna Gunes (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne); Carla Canelas (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the links between time use, informal labor market, and poverty measures in two countries that strongly differ on their level of development, by means of a multidimensional poverty index, and a bivariate probit model to assess the changes in the joint probability of working in the informal sector while being considered poor. |
| Keywords: | Poverty; informality; time use |
| Date: | 2013–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00820754&r=cwa |
| By: | Wachenheim, Cheryl |
| Keywords: | Afghanistan, development, International Development, |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea14:170514&r=cwa |