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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Erdal Ozmen (Department of Economics, METU); Mehmet Duygu Yolcu-Karadam (Department of Economics, METU) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates export and import dynamics of Turkey in the context of the main Broad Economic Classification (BEC) sectors. Our results suggest that the trade equations do not remain stable when an endogenously estimated regime change is taken account. According to our results, consistent with the elasticity pessimism literature, real exchange rate elasticities of exports and imports are considerably low in absolute value. Exports and imports are basically determined by world real output and domestic real income, respectively, with substantially high elasticities. Consistent with the fact that Turkish integration to global value chains has substantaily increased during the post-2000 period especially in intermediate and capital goods sectors, the real exchange elasticities of exports and imports decrease (in absolute value) during the recent period. Our results suggesting that the external income elasticity of exports, for all sectors, is substantially higher than the domestic income elasticity of imports support that the Houthakker and Magee findings still remains a puzzle even under case of the higher participation in the global value chains. |
| Keywords: | current account deficits, exports, global value chains, imports, real exchange rates, trade elasticity, Turkey. |
| JEL: | F1 F4 |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:1413&r=cwa |
| By: | Ãœlke, Volkan; Ergun, Ugur |
| Abstract: | In this study we analyze the relationship between the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) in Turkey. We test long run, short run and causality relationship of these series. Johansen’s cointegration tests present a long run relationship between these series. Vector error correction (VEC) model specification suggests these series move together. There is a unidirectional long run causality from CPI to PPI. On the other hand VEC Granger causality test indicates no causality in short run. Thus our results suggest demand pull inflation in long run. |
| Keywords: | Cointegration, Vector error correction model and Price indices |
| JEL: | C32 E31 |
| Date: | 2013–09–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:59437&r=cwa |
| By: | Mustafa Utku Ozmen; Cagri Sarikaya |
| Abstract: | [EN] In this note, departing from the observation of systematic price hikes in certain products due to a shift in consumption behavior during Ramadan, we investigate the effects of such changes on food inflation. Empirical findings suggest that Ramadan effect is most significant in red and white meat, milk and milk products, while it has strengthened since 2009. Estimated Ramadan effect on consumer inflation through food products may reach 0.15 percentage points. [TR] Bu calismada, Ramazan ayinda tuketim kaliplarinin degismesiyle birlikte belirli urun fiyatlarinda yuksek oranli sistematik artislar oldugu gozlemi paralelinde, gida grubu enflasyonu uzerinde bu doneme ozgu etkiler incelenmistir. Ampirik bulgular, Ramazan etkisinin ozellikle kirmizi ve beyaz et, sut ve sut urunlerinde belirgin olduguna ve 2009 yili sonrasinda guclendigine isaret etmistir. Tuketici enflasyonunda gida grubu kaynakli Ramazan etkisinin 0,15 puana kadar ulasabildigi tahmin edilmistir. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1414&r=cwa |
| By: | Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano; Capitanio, Fabian; Adinolfi, Felice |
| Abstract: | Dynamics and transitions in the agricultural sector of emerging countries are not well understood yet. A decade of major political and economic changes is challenging the Mediterranean Economies, affecting the primary sectors of transition economies which are largely influenced by recent trends. The resulting exposure of agriculture to risks has called great attention on risk management strategies and public intervention. We explore their role in three different economies with a view to a unified policy framework. The analysis is conducted through a field activity in Syria, Tunisia and Turkey that has allowed to understand the key issues. The experts’ opinions draw a clear picture of retrospect and prospects and stimulate a comparative analysis that widens the current knowledge of risk management in the EU Partner Countries. |
| Keywords: | EU Integration, Agricultural Policy, Partner Countries, Risk Management |
| JEL: | F15 N54 Q18 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:58935&r=cwa |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); (Central and West Asia Department, ADB); ; |
| Abstract: | In 2011, Uzbekistan celebrated 20 years of independence. The transition has not been smooth for any country in the Commonwealth of Independent States, and Uzbekistan, too, has experienced both positive and negative developments in gender equality. The status of women and men in Uzbekistan is very much shaped by the fact that the country has undergone significant and rapid change in recent years. Uzbekistan is still being transformed from a state-controlled, largely agricultural economy to a market-based system. Several characteristics of the transformation have direct bearing on gender equality and are illuminated in greater detail throughout this assessment. |
| Keywords: | Uzbekistan, gender, women, girls, equality, empowerment, rights, employment, women’s committee, infrastructure, transport, energy, education, health, labor, natural resources, water, entrepreneurship, business, safety, social protection, participation, segregation, sex-disaggregated, roles, disparities |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt146431-3&r=cwa |
| By: | Nargiza Alimukhamedova (CERGE-EI) |
| Abstract: | The paper describes the microfinance environment in Uzbekistan, with an emphasis on two types of non-bank microfinance institutions – Credit Unions and Microcredit Organizations. The specific nature of these institutions provides new evidence of the commercially oriented microcredit model and SME lending, which is an emerging trend in mainstream microfinance. The paper offers two important contributions. On the supply side of microcredits, we analyse the determinants of initial placement of these MFIs in districts of Uzbekistan. We find that MFIs follow general economic principles when choosing the location for establishment. On the demand side, we analyse the actual margins of excess demand for microcredits by considering only the pool of eligible applicants. We find that the total probability of microcredit approval is on average only 0.5, which implies that the actual margins of untapped market could be just half of that projected when the narrow definition of eligible applicants is taken into account. |
| Keywords: | microcredit, microfinance institutions, credit unions |
| JEL: | O16 C34 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ost:wpaper:344&r=cwa |
| By: | Andriansyah, Yuli |
| Abstract: | This article analyzed the phrase “baldatun thayyibatun wa rabbun ghafûrâ€, one of main keywords in Islamic quality of life research, with reference to the interpretations given by tafsir nusantara i.e. Marâh Labîd, Tafsir An Nur, Tafsir Al-Azhar, Al Qur’ân dan Tafsirnya, and Tafsir Al-Mishbâh. The phrase “baldatun thayyibatun wa rabbun ghafûr†was chosen because of its relation with the concept of civilized and sustainable society as UII research orientation, while the selection of tafsir nusantara was driven by the current tendency in research and implementation of local genius both in UII and the Ministry of Religious Affairs. The method used in this article was comparative method (muqârin) aimed to compare the interpretations given by some interpreters on the phrase and then linked to the concept of quality of life that has been widely studied. The results showed that the quality of life, as tafsir nusantara noted, had several aspects such as nature and its resources; fulfillment of basic needs; support and the ability to manage irrigation facilities; advancement in transportation; security in many activities; freedom in economic activities; international trade; religious conditions; commitment to maintain public facilities ; closeness with family etc. A number of aspects of interpretation found in tafsir nusantara has some conformity with the conceptual framework prepared by the Quality of Life Research Unit, University of Toronto. Further research is needed to examine the concepts of quality of life for other terms mentioned in the Koran as the foundation of the development of this study in the future. |
| Keywords: | quality of life, baldatun thayyibatun wa rabbun ghafûr, tafsir nusantara |
| JEL: | I31 Z12 |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:58446&r=cwa |