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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Fatih Akcelik; Mustafa Utku Ozmen |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we revisit the unsettled discussion of whether retail fuel oil prices respond asymmetrically to oil price shocks. Using a novel micro approach that considers each price spell separately; we find evidence of pass-through asymmetry in the fuel oil market in Turkey. With our approach it is possible to analyze asymmetry at various other grounds including source and size of the cost shock. We show that exchange rate (oil price) is the main factor fueling asymmetry in case of cost increases (decreases). Also, if the magnitude of positive cost shock is higher, pass-through will be lower. Finally, empirical evidence suggests that pricing behavior in terms of pass-through degree and asymmetry varies across firms. The market power of the firms is suggested as the main explanation of the asymmetry, yet there are factors limiting the use of market power in price setting. |
| Keywords: | Fuel oil, Oil price, Exchange rate, Pass-through asymmetry, Gasoline, Diesel; Micro data, Turkey |
| JEL: | D22 D43 E31 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1431&r=cwa |
| By: | Ece Oral; Turknur Brand |
| Abstract: | The ability to measure the predictive power of consumer surveys is very important especially for central banks in order to have a forward-looking perspective about consumer tendencies and expenditures. Particularly, most studies have found that diffusion indices obtained from surveys are linked to aggregate GDP or consumer expenditures. Therefore, the performance of prediction can be assessed at an aggregate level via the diffusion indices. On the other hand, our paper, while restricting itself to the evaluation of Turkish data provided by Consumer Tendency Survey (CTS) for the period 2003-2012, differs from previous studies in looking at disaggregated measures of both consumers’ opinion and household’s expenditures. In particular, various demographic characteristics such as employment type, age and income of the people interviewed are considered in this paper. Moreover, as a reference series, different categories of consumption are used (services, food and non-food items) instead of more aggregate measures of economic activity (total consumption, GDP). First of all, the survey results are analyzed monthly and quarterly. The quarterly series, which shows less volatility compared with monthly series, are used in order to examine the leading/coincident relationships with the related reference series; then, we test the significance of these relationships. We also construct regression models. The disaggregated analysis confirms that the CTS-consumption relationship is stronger for different demographic categories of consumers and some specific groups of expenditures than the aggregated categories of consumers. |
| Keywords: | Consumers, Consumption, Time series, Demographics |
| JEL: | N3 E2 C1 J11 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1432&r=cwa |
| By: | Ira N. Gang (Rutgers University); Achim Schmillen |
| Abstract: | Several post-Soviet states have introduced policies to improve the relative economic, political or social position of formerly disadvantaged populations. Using one example of such policies – “Kazakhisation†in Kazakhstan – we investigate their impact on the comparative earnings of two directly affected groups, ethnic Russians and ethnic Kazakhs. Oaxaca decompositions show that Kazakhs are better endowed with income generating characteristics but receive lower returns to these characteristics than Russians. The second effect dominates and Kazakhs have comparatively lower average living standards. While “Kazakhisation†may have been successful in a narrow sense – i.e., by empowering Kazakhs to take on leading positions in the public sector – more broadly it as been a self-defeating policy as it has pushed ethnic Russians into jobs that often evolved into positions that (at least in monetary terms) are superior now to those held by Kazakhs. |
| Keywords: | Ethnicity, Decomposition, Indigenization, Kazakhstan |
| JEL: | I32 O12 J15 |
| Date: | 2014–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:1437&r=cwa |