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on Central and Western Asia |
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Issue of 2014‒09‒05
sixty-two papers chosen by Christian Zimmermann Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Banks and Banking Reform Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:19321&r=cwa |
| By: | Leyla Baştav |
| Abstract: | The study aims to analyze Turkish economy for the period 2000-2012 with emphasis on hysteresis mechanism in labor markets. New Keynesian (NK) framework has natural rate (or Non Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemploymet - NAIRU) vs alternative theory of hysteresis as explanations for employment patterns. Of the four empirical research one reveals presence of hysteresis in Turkey for the term 1950-1995, whereas two of the remaining three studies for 1980-2011 also provide supporting evidence. In this study NKPC is estimated with labor market variables and additionally PC is estimated in output gap format by OLS. Although labor market equations are inconclusive due to presence of hysteresis, output gap NKPC provides some hinting evidence. This finding is also supported by statistical data analysis on employment, unemployment series and further by analysis on turnover in labor markets and long term unemployment. Hysteresis in Turkey seems to be result of business cycles in the economy (or economic shocks) rather than labor market characteristics, which can be overcome by demand management policies. Labor market and output gap equations in the study should be reestimated in the New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve (NKWPC) format when wage series becomes available. [1]Only then a better vision will have been obtained on labor market dynamics. On macroeconomic field there is insufficient empirical evidence on dynamics of hysteresis to reach a firm theoretical background . This study may add some information to the relevance of business cycles and recessions for presence of persistent unemployment. See above See above |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Labor market issues, Labor market issues |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:6202&r=cwa |
| By: | Anoshirvan Taghipour |
| Abstract: | In the literature, there are many studies to measure financial liberalization indices, but none of them has studied for the case of Iran. Therefore, to fill this gap, in this paper we introduce a comprehensive indicator for financial liberalization which considers various aspects of financial sector reforms. Then, we estimate the index for the case of Iran and compare the results with two ECO members, i.e. Turkey and Pakistan. For the estimation of aggregate financial liberalization index, we use different methods of aggregation such as principal component method (PCM) and simple summation. Our findings show that Ira and Pakistan have started financial reforms since the mid 1990s, while Turkey has started a decade earlier, in 1980s. Moreover, the results show that the level of financial reforms in Iran is not very high amongst the countries considered while the index related to Turkey is higher compare with Iran and Pakistan. See above See above |
| Keywords: | Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, Finance, Regional integration |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:6326&r=cwa |
| By: | Leyla Baştav |
| Abstract: | This study aims to analyse Turkish economy for the 2000-2012 term with emphasis on inflation dynamics within the framework of New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC). The aim is to capture whether the inflation dynamics is explained by output gap and/or growth of output explanatory variables or alternatively by level or the rate of change of employment (and unemployment). Price equations are estimated in the form of New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) by GMM methodology following unit root tests. There is hysteresis effect in price dynamics and past levels of output effect current inflation. There is hardly any supporting pattern for employment/unemployment level or rate of change variables upto second order lags having any explanatory power for the price inflation dynamics of Turkey. However the study will be extended by new explanatory variables (like marginal cost index, different expected inflation proxy variables etc). |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Macroeconometric modeling, Monetary issues |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:6955&r=cwa |
| By: | Fabio Indeo |
| Abstract: | The presence in its territory of huge oil and gas reserves and its geographic-territorial location as a kind of “energy bridge” between Caspian energy and Turks and European markets represent relevant geopolitical factors which have enhanced the strategic relevance of Azerbaijan in the regional and international scenario. Thanks to these conditions, several energy projects (pipelines, LNG terminals) have been proposed with the aim to cross Azeri republic or to use Azeri oil and gas reserves: the most famous is Nabucco and the Southern Corridor but there are others like AGRI, TANAP, ITGI, TAP which stress the rising importance of this Caucasian republic. The aim of this paper is to evaluate if Azerbaijan could play both roles as energy supplier and energy hub in the East-West corridor in the next years and which geopolitical, strategic and economic gains could obtain considering following issues: Azerbaijan is a strategic key partner for the EU in order to satisfy its growing demand of energy and to achieve its energy security strategy focus on the diversification of export route and on the reduction of export dependency from Russia; Azerbaijan could be a geopolitical player in the Russian energy strategy aimed to preserve the EU dependency from Russian gas hindering the realization of the Southern Corridor; Azerbaijan could become a strategic energy partner for Turkey, not only following the implementation of the planned TANAP pipeline but because most of planned energy routes projects involving Azerbaijan must necessarily cross Turkish territory; Azerbaijan is the obliged route for Central Asian states (mainly Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan) which aimed to channel their oil and gas exports towards Western and European markets. We can observe that the precondition for a full implementation of the Southern Corridor is the Turkmen-Azeri appeasementTo develop my research, I use a comparative method through which I analyse how Azeri strategic key drivers (strategic geographic position, huge oil and gas reserves, Azerbaijan's diversification strategy of energy exports) have attracted interests of geopolitical actors in order to achieve their strategic energy goals.The convergence of strategic interests between Azerbaijan and EU focused on the energy diversification concept has enhanced the Caucasian republic in the role of key partner for EU, in order to achieve its energy security through the implementation of the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC). The future implementation of the Trans Anatolia Gas Pipeline (TANAP) will represent a concrete and feasible opportunity for Azerbaijan to play both role of transit and supplier country within the SGC also benefiting of several economic, political and strategic gains. However, the achievement of this result will hinder Russian geopolitical plans in the region (to set back EU energy diversification projects and to obtain additional volumes of gas to fuel South Stream project). The concrete achievement of the Azeri geopolitical ambition to become a strategic energy supplier and transit country depends on the solution of regional hindrances, such as the obliged Georgian export route, the unsolved Caspian legal status, relations with Turkmenistan to realize the Trans Caspian energy corridor.. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, Energy, Infrastructure |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:6037&r=cwa |
| By: | Alper Duman |
| Abstract: | Turkey by and large avoided the financial meltdown thanks to its low level of household debt ratio and relatively sound public finance structure. The stylized fact is that the consumption loss as a percentage of GDP has been greater for the countries with higher growth rates of household debt-to-income ratios prior to the global crisis. Although Turkey also witnessed a surge in household debt levels (for example in 2010 among 34 OECD members, Greece and Turkey saw household liabilities increase at fastest pace as 12.1 percent and 10.8 percent respectively), the starting point was so low that the general effect could not be as destructive. We study two main factors that will make this dynamic more fragile and hence lay ground for an imminent financial crisis in the future: (1) Due to formalization of land and real estate markets, home ownership rates decline for the median group of households which constitute the backbone of the labor force, and (2) The share of consumer credit in household budgets increase steadily for the lower three quintiles of the households. Both factors will induce dramatic rises in household debt-to-income ratios and will create systemic financial risks . We follow Hein (2011) and employ a simple Kaleckian closed economy model. By using the model we get comparative statics equation for growth in terms of household debt as a ratio of total disposable income and various parameters/variables including the home ownership rate, interest rate, debt burden. Then we simulate the model in Mathematics to figure out the critical regions in which growth would decline and hence trigger a crisis. Decreasing home ownership rates, decreasing nominal income growth and increasing debt-sensitivity of investment will increase the fragility (by expanding the regions in which growth declines) and hence raise the likelihood of a crisis in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Growth, Microsimulation models |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:5259&r=cwa |
| By: | A. Emre AKEL |
| Abstract: | Turkey’s exports have been experiencing remarkable developments in recent years. Turkey’s exports increased from 47,2 billion dollars in 2003 to 152,5 billion dollars in 2012, which implies more than a two-fold increase in 10 years. During the same period, sectoral and regional breakdowns of Turkey’s exports have changed significantly. The sectoral structure of exports, which was heavily dependent on labor-intensive products in 2003, have become significantly capital intensive in 2012. Similarly, the share of the EU in Turkey’s exports decreased from 58% in 2003 to 38% in 2012, while share of MENA increased from 15% in 2003 to 34% in 2012. Although these basic indicators obviously imply a structural change for Turkey’s overall exports, firm-level reasons and outcomes of these developments are yet to be clear. However, Turkey has already set a target of “500 billion dollars of exports in 2023” in the absence of detailed information on firm-level dynamics of her exporters. The main objective of this study is to analyze firm-level dynamics behind the structural change in Turkey’s exports during 2003-2012 and bring out lessons from the past ten years for the upcoming ten years. In this context, this study tries to answer a number of questions such as “Do Turkish exporters export regularly?”, “What are the entry, exit and survival rates for Turkish exporters?”, “Are there any certain group of firms that dominate the developments in Turkey’s exports?”, “What shares do intensive and extensive margins have in Turkey’s exports?”, “What are the sizes of market portfolio and product portfolio in an average exporter in Turkey?”, “How does size and/or continuous exports activities of a firm influence its exports metrics?” and “What lessons do the most affluent ten years of Turkey’s exports bring forward for the next ten years?”. This study mainly focuses on Turkey’s exports between 2003 and 2012, because Turkey’s exports boom began in 2003, mainly thanks to the increasing global demand, especially in the regions surrounding Turkey. In addition, in 2002, after a decade of political uncertainties due to coalition governments, a single-party government came into force and initiated a wide range of structural reforms that continued throughout the analysis period and maintained a stable economy, which annually grew at 5.1% on average despite the %-4.8 growth rate in 2009 due to the global financial crises. Therefore, Turkey’s exports level reached a record-high level in 2012 with 152,5 billion dollars. The exports data used in the analysis are firm-level exports data from TUIK for 2003-2012 at HS 6-digit breakdown. Therefore, the term “an exports good” refers to an HS-6 digit product. To deal with the compatibility issue between HS2002, HS2007 and HS2012 6-digit codes, all the exports goods are defined in terms of HS2002 products using the correlation tables obtained from the UN. The size of the firms are determined by the number of employees they have, where there are 4 main categories namely micro-sized (1-9 employees), small-sized (10-49 employees), medium-sized (50-249 employees) and large-sized (more than 249 employees) firms. In addition, the firms that have less than 250 employees will be referred as SME’s (Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises). The data regarding “the size of the firms” and “whether they are producer or not” are collected from the Ministry of Finance. Although the analysis is based on firm-level data, only category-based results will be presented to secure commercial privacy of Turkish exporters. While STATA 12 and MS Excel 2010 were used for data manipulation to calculate all the metrics mentioned above, a new type of decomposition was used to assess the contribution of “intensive and extensive margins of exports”. The traditional decomposition used by Eaton, Eslava, Kugler, and Tybout (2008), Bernard, Jensen, and Schott (2009), Lederman, Rodriguez-Clare, and Xu (2011), and Amador and Opromolla (2012) and Cebeci and Fernandes (2013) focuses on assessing the roles of continuing exporters, new exporters, and exiting exporters in explaining “total annual export growth”, while this type of decomposition takes into account only two consecutive years (the current year and the former one) while defining a continuing exporter, new exporter, and exiting exporter; whereas it uses one year before and after the current year while defining a survivor. One implication of this approach is, if “Firm A” exports in 2004 and does not export for the following two years, this approach considers Firm A’s exports in 2007 as “exports of a new firm”. Besides, if Firm A exports to a different country or a different product in 2007, it will not be considered as a “market or product diversification” compared to its export in 2004, because of the same reason that it will be counted as exports of a new firm. At the same time, this approach may lead to an underestimated share for intensive margin, since Firm A may have exported the same products to the same markets in 2007; in which case it should be counted in intensive margin. In other words, if the analysis period is more than 3 years, the traditional decomposition approach has a high risk for miscalculation of “firm entry” and “firm exit” values, which would influence all the calculations regarding ‘intensive and extensive margins of exports’, as well as any empirical analysis based on these outcomes. In this study, instead of calculating the contributions to total annual exports growth, the composition of annual exports values will take place using a number of definitions. At first, an “exporter portfolio” for Turkey that includes ‘every exporter that has exported at least once in any year between 2003 and 2012’ was constructed. This definition enables us to clearly determine first-time exporters (firm entries), as well as all-time exporters (survivors), irregular exporters and those export for the last time (firm exits). Once we determine new firms in each year, the rest will be the firms that are already in the portfolio. Also, when a new firm in any year between 2003 and 2011 exports for a second time in any following year given the analysis period, the latter exports of the firm will be treated as ‘exports of a firm in the portfolio’. In addition, for each firm in the portfolio, we can determine whether “a good is exported for the first time or not” or “the destination market is a new market or not”. The goods that a firm exports constitute its “product portfolio”, while the destination countries that a firm exports constitute its “market portfolio”. Therefore, starting from 2003 and evaluating the growing exporters portfolio within years, once we determine the firms that are already in the portfolio, then for each firm, we can bring out whether: 1- A new product was exported to a new market, 2- A new product was exported to an old market, 3- An old product was exported to a new market, 4- An old product was exported to an old market”. Hence, for each year and each firm, we can calculate the value of product diversification ( using 1 and 2) and market diversification (using 1 and 3). Therefore, “Extensive Margin” of Turkey’s total exports can be tracked by summing up firm level exports values for “1 to 3” combined with the contribution of new firms, as well as “Intensive Margin” that will be reflected by summing up firm level exports values for “4- An old product was exported to an old market”. This structure also enables us to identify which countries were the main sources of market diversification and which products were the main sources of product diversification for Turkish exporters. Initial findings of the study can be summarized as below: • Turkey’s exports portfolio between 2003-2012 consists of 140.214 different exporters. • 57.428 of them are producer-exporters. • There are only 8789 firms that continuously exported between 2003-2012 (10-year-survivors). • These 8789 firms constitute 2/3 of Turkey’s exports each year on average between 2003-2012. • 93% of these firms are SME’s. • Around 50% of these firms are producer-exporters. • In the last 5 years, 10.500 new firms on average has entered Turkey’s exports portfolio. • 53% of these firms are micro-scale firms and 40% are small-scale firms. • Each year, on average, 20 out of 100 firms are exporting for the last time. In other firms, firm exit rate for Turkey is around 20%. • Between 2008-2011, each year, on average, 10.700 firms exported for the last time. • On average, each year, 35 out of 100 new exporter firms has exported for the last time. In other words, on average, each year, only 65 out of 100 new exporter firms exported at least once again in the following years. Therefore, the exit rate for new firms is 35% for Turkey. • When we compare ‘the products and the destination markets of one-time exporters’ to ‘the products and the destination markets of new firms that were able to survive in the following years’, we surprisingly face almost the same products and markets. In other words, most of the new exporters tried to export the same product(s) to the same market(s), and only some of them were able to survive while the others were not able to export again. Besides, these destination markets and products were at the top 10 list of Turkey’s exports in each year. Therefore, it seems that in most of the cases, a firm that has never exported before tries to sell a common exports good of Turkey to a familiar exports market,where some fails to export again while some others continue to export in the following years. • Each year, on average, %70 of exporters had at most 3 destination markets in their market portfolio. In other words, only 30% of exporters had more than 3 destination markets in their market portfolio. • Each year, on average, 60% of exporters had at most 5 different products in their exports product portfolio. In other words, only 40% of exporters had more than 5 products in their exports products portfolio. • Between 2003-2012, each year, on average, 63% of Turkey’s total exports were realized by SME’s, while almost 95% of exporters in each year are SME’s. • On average, the size of “product portfolio of a Turkish exporter” increased from 8,8 products in 2003 to 10,9 products in 2012. • On average, the size of “market portfolio of a Turkish exporter” increased from 3,5 destinations in 2003 to 4,4 destinations in 2012. • In 2012, 20% of total exporters exported only a single good to a single market. In 2003, the share of exporters that exported only a single good to a single market was 25%. • The size of the market portfolio and product portfolio is highly correlated to the size of the firm. In addition, survivors have larger market and product portfolios. • For example, in 2012, the average market portfolio size of a micro-scale firm was 2.8, whereas it was 15.8 for a large-scale firm, while it was 23.7 for a ten-year-survivor large-scale firm. Similarly, the average product portfolio size of a micro-scale firm was 9, whereas it was 28.7 for a large-scale firm, while it was 36.2 for a ten-year-survivor large-scale firm. • On average, the share of total market diversification constituted 12.6% of Turkey’s exports each year between 2003 and 2012. • On average, 80% of total market diversification was realized by SME’s each year. • On average, the share of total product diversification constituted 8.3% of Turkey’s exports each year between 2003 and 2012. • On average, 87% of total market diversification was realized by SME’s each year. • On average, contribution of firm entries constituted 3.8% of Turkey’s exports each year between 2003 and 2012. • On average, 80.9% of Turkey’s exports in each year were thanks to the exports of the firms in the portfolio that exported the same product(s) to the same market(s). In other words, on average, intensive margin of Turkey’s exports have 80.9% share in each year. So what lessons do these figures imply and what can be done for a better performance in the next 10 years of Turkey’s exports? The most affluent 10 years of Turkey’s exports were driven by 8789 firms that exported continuously during 2003-2012, constituting 2/3 of all exports in each year. These firms outperfomed the others in all metrics used in this study, which is a clear indication of importance of continuous exports activities and how continuity helps to enhance an exporter’s product and market portfolio. Since nearly all of these firms are SME’s, it is posibble to come up with “success stories”, which would enlight those that were not able to export continuously. In addition, since all of the one-time exporters and other firm exits are identified, the reasons behind their quits can be investigated in detail by implementing surveys. Once the problems are detected, solution-oriented policy options can be generated. At this point, it is obvious that each firm size category imply that different policy options should be genarated for different type of firms. Currently, none of the support mechanisms take into account the different structures that Turkish exporters have, which needs to be fixed to address problems and guide exporters more efficiently. Exports values for intensive margin imply that the firms that exports the same products to same markets are the main reason behind the sharp fall in exports values in 2009, as well as the quick rise in 2010 and onwards. The market portfolio of these firms mainly consist of Euro Zone countries and MENA countries. In this sense, taking into account the global forecasts for these countries on the next ten years combined with the decreasing global demand, Turkey will most likely to face hard times in increasing its exports values unless a structural change occurs on production side, such as shifting to production of high-value added products. Therefore, new policies that focuses on production and exports of high value-added products should be implemented to sustain increase in exports. All in all, given the firm-level structure of Turkey’s exports and the forecasts on decreasing global demand in the upcoming years, reaching 500 billion dollars of exports in 2023 seems not to be rationale for Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Trade issues, Developing countries |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:7126&r=cwa |
| By: | Cem Baslevent |
| Abstract: | The main purpose of this study is to carry out descriptive and econometric analyses (at the province and district levels) to identify the urbanization–related determinants of the electoral success of the currently-ruling Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP). The AKP is not only the dominant party in the Turkish party system, and but it also is believed to have benefited the most from the existing living conditions of the urban population, especially in the metropolitan areas. Our ultimate goal is to produce empirical findings that provide foresight on future political outcomes under various assumptions regarding education levels, birth rates, and migration patterns.In the absence of individual level data from a comprehensive nationwide survey designed specifically for the purpose of examining the relationships in question, the best alternative is to work with official socio-demographic and election data available at the levels of the major administrative units in Turkey. The empirical work involves the estimation of econometric models where the AKP vote share appears as the dependent variable. The findings from the province level analysis reveal that the available indicators are reasonably good predictors of the dependent variable. It turns out that the urbanization rate is positively related with the AKP vote share. This finding is in line with the hypothesis that the AKP has benefited the most from the existing living conditions of the urban population, especially in the metropolitan areas. To be more specific, the party has been particularly successful in identifying the worldviews and addressing the needs of conservative and generally-underprivileged masses of voters many of whom are first or second generation migrants. The district level analysis also yields results that are in line with our expectations regarding the socio-economic and cultural factors behind the AKP’s success. The high level of support for the party in parts of the province where lower-class native and migrant populations are concentrated is among the key findings of the econometric work. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Socio-economic development, Labor market issues |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:5960&r=cwa |
| By: | Can Erbil; Kit Baum; Ferhan Salman |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of banking reform and financial crisis of 2001 on non-financial firm dynamics. Our analysis integrates the two lines of literature on financial liberalization, banking reform and access to capital and banking competition, which were addressed earlier by Bertrand, Schoar and Thesmar (2007) and Cetorelli and Strahan (2006). Our unique firm level survey data from Turkey sheds light on market structure and firm performance. We find that increased banking competition for credit along with banking concentration and financial crisis severely affects access to capital. Moreover, this effect is more pronounced with varying firm size. See above See above |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Finance, Finance |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:5674&r=cwa |
| By: | Yahya özdemir |
| Abstract: | Azerbaijan, Turkey, Afghanistan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in addition to research, technology development and production partner countries ' Innovation structures sharing with R&D Center in technoparks, thanks to the advanced technology and the production of these technoparks produced this advanced technology, technology to provide application process so that it can be imported, and the country's socio-economic and technical ways by its proponents, to serve together in the development of the total synergies "of the economic cooperation organization" will have an important place in the world economy and will create a strategic vision in this geography perception is of great importance.Advanced technologies in the world, especially in the last quarter century of rapid change, radical innovation were required to compete in important decisions, triggered by the national network of cooperation structures is a very significant changes in participates in the regional country or new technology generation and transfer systems to be released; starting from the most basic research on the effect of knowledge production, commercialization, distribution of the total well-being of society is an important dating "shining knowledge value chain". This important change, has become the main formative element of the economies. Recent advances in the knowledge economy and the resulting new strategic theories, knowledge, technology transfer and increased mobility at the long distances, the concept of regional development is a brand new technological cooperation aims and information focusing on the transformation processes of growth of the economies of developed nations are experiencing today, which is the most important technological innovation in the vision of the economic development advanced plays an important role, evolving processes trigger in all aspects of the right to readmost threats and opportunities that might be the best analysis, by passing the appropriate policies for countries in their visions, and entrusted a vital importance. |
| Keywords: | TURKEY, Socio-economic development, Other issues |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:5842&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Law and Development - Tax Law Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Markets and Market Access Economic Theory and Research International Economics and Trade - Trade Policy International Economics and Trade - Free Trade |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:19320&r=cwa |
| By: | Ayşenur Acar; Cem Baslevent |
| Abstract: | Using a balanced panel data set drawn from TurkStat’s Income and Living Conditions Survey, we examine the transition of Turkish households into and out of poverty. During the four year period (2007-2010) under examination, the relative poverty rate had remained more or less the same in Turkey while the absolute poverty rate declined considerably, implying that households were more likely to exit than enter poverty. In addition to a descriptive analysis in which poor, non-poor, entrant, exitor, and switcher households are compared in terms of basic characteristics, the empirical work features the estimation of binary choice models that assess the relative importance of these factors in determining the poverty status of the households. Comparisons of non-poor vs. entrant and poor vs. exitor households - identified according to both relative and absolute poverty criteria - reveal that factors such as changes in labor income and household composition were mainly responsible for poverty status changes. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Impact and scenario analysis, Labor market issues |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:5779&r=cwa |
| By: | Şevket KALANLAR; Dr. A. Ahmet YÜCER; Dr. Muhammet DEMIRTAŞ; Dr. Şevket KALANLAR |
| Abstract: | Due to the increasing oil prices in Turkey, the fuel released with legal regulations, as the supply of fuel and diesel oil from 2013 to domestic agricultural products produced in the gradually bio-fuel blending mandates. Accordingly; the supply of gasoline as fuel types on the market; 2% in 2013, 2014 at least 3% extra for bio-ethanol produced domestic agricultural products is required. Diesel oil; at least 1% in 2014, at least 2% in 2015 and at least 3% in 2016 is produced by domestic agricultural products extra mandates to bio-diesel. The results of the analysis conducted in this context study, costs of policy, import requirement, minimum space requirements adhering to the criteria. Study on bio-fuel raw materials as wheat, corn, sugar beets; sunflower, rapeseed, safflower and soybean is taken into account. 34,5% of the fat in sunflower, soybean 18.2%, 44% of the Canola. Contains of ethanol ratio; 40% in corn, 34% wheat, Sugar beets 11% was accepted.The analysis of bio-energy in Turkey; the need to meet the demand for diesel fuel in 2014 0.169 million tons, 0.351 million tons in 2015, 0,546 million tons in 2016, 0.565 million tons in 2017, 0.583 million tons in 2018, 0.600 million tons in 2019, 2,071 million tons in 2020, have been identified. In Turkey; to meet the demand for fuels product needs 0.144 million tons in 2014, 0.139 million tons in 2015, 0.133 million tons in 2016, 0.127 million tons in 2017, 0.121 million tons in 2018, 0.115 million tons in 2019, 0.363 million tons in 2020 have been identified. The current oilseeds pattern in Turkey and production capacity, the targeted rate of bio-diesel fuel-mixture is quite inadequate to meet the quantity demanded. This demand breaks the food security. Because current agricultural structure and costs within the framework of a single product to meet this demand the impossible. According to the results of the analysis of bio-ethanol; the current crop pattern in Turkey and production capacity from 2013 the rate of bio-ethanol fuel-mixture of targeted demanded quantity is sufficient on its own to meet the bio-energy. In this context the areas of cultivation of agricultural products needed to meet these quantities are determined. Current agricultural policy tools and threads in the current situation are discussed in the context of the future in bio-fuels in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Energy, Agriculture |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:6093&r=cwa |
| By: | Bülent Köksal; Cüneyt Orman |
| Abstract: | Our paper uses a new and comprehensive dataset to investigate the capital structure of non-financial firms in a major emerging market economy, Turkey. We study both statistical and economic significance of four types of leverage factors: Firm-specific, tax-related, industry specific,and macroeconomic. We have included "capital flows" as a new determinant of non-financial firm capital structure in our analysis. We use fixed effects panel data analysis by adjusting the errors for heteroskedasticity and serial correlation. A summary of the issues analyzed in the paper that distinguishes it from the literature. 1. This paper is the first to provide evidence that tradeoff theory better accounts for the capital structure of Turkish firms than the pecking order theory. 2. In the Turkish context, this paper is also the first to show that firms adjust their leverage towards the industry median and that firms match the maturity of their assets and liabilities among several other findings. 3. On a more general level, our dataset is not just bigger and/or newer. It is different from the previous datasets in terms of its coverage of privately-owned firms. Although our dataset includes listed firms, most firms in the dataset are privately-owned, which means that the dataset is much more representative of the actual population of firms, thereby allowing us to take an unprecedentedly more accurate picture of the capital structure of the average (ie typical) non-financial firm. Most studies are silent on this as they focus on firms listed on the stock exchanges. We believe, this aspect of our paper is quite a distinguishing feature. 4. Another novel aspect is that we investigate not only the "statistical significance" of various determinants but also their "economic significance". This is very rare in the literature. Given this, we can rank the relative economic importance of various types of determinants (firm-specific, industry-specific, tax-related, macroeconomic) for Turkey. This can be fruitfully investigated in other countries as well. A statistically significant factor may not have to be very important if it is not economically all that important. This point is rarely made, if at all. 5. Our analysis also sheds light on the statistical as well as economic significance of leverage determinants for short-term, long-term, and total leverage definitions. For example, our findings suggest that if one is analyzing long-term leverage, the most economically important determinant is tangibility or collateral, even before size, profitabiliy, or tax-related factors. 6. Also novel is our finding that short-term debt ratios increase with firm size, but only for firms that are sufficiently large, indicating a “threshold effect” in size for short-term indebtedness. To our knowledge, no previous study has uncovered such a pattern in any country. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Finance, Developing countries |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:6405&r=cwa |
| By: | Idil Goksel; Alper Duman |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to investigate the network effect on the probability of job finding. This paper uses a specific data set from the Izmir region, prepared by the Turkish Statistical Institute for a specific project carried out by Izmir University of Economics in cooperation with the Izmir Commerce Centre, the Izmir branch of the Turkish Statistical Institute and the Turkish Labour Institute. Its aim was to investigate the labour market situation of Izmir and to understand the main problems of labour market and reasons of unemployment and suggest possible policy implications. During this study we found that the migrants who have moved to Izmir five years or more ago have higher probability to find a job than Izmir born ones. The same argument is also valid for the ones who moved less than two years ago. Only the ones that have moved 2-5 years ago have less chance to find a job. These trends show also difference according to the gender. Furthermore, it is found that migrants tend to earn more relative to the natives. This variety made us think that it will be interesting to analyze this subject a bit deeper. Izmir is the third biggest city in Turkey and has been one of the preferred destinations of migrants. Izmir attracts both skilled and unskilled migrants. Moreover, we believe doing such an analysis at a local level is more promising than doing it in the state level, as it will be easier to isolate the network effects in local level. The paper aims to analyze how the network effect differs between skilled and unskilled people and the nonlinearity in the network effects. It is assumed that the more time spent in a city, the larger is the network and quality of the network connections depend on the job seeker’s qualifications. Using Armengol and Jackson (2007) theoretical model and the empirical framework of Munshi (2003), a probit model that estimates the probability of being employed is used. In the model personal characteristics, the sectors, and the number of years spent in Izmir are controlled for. Moreover, the education levels and occupations of the parents are used as proxies for the size and the quality of the network. It is expected to find nonlinearity in network effects. We also expect to find higher influence of quality of network with respect to its dimension. It will be also interesting to investigate whether network effects differ according to the gender or not. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Labor market issues, Regional modeling |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:5245&r=cwa |
| By: | Ihtiyor Bobojonov; Dr. Aden Aw-Hassan |
| Abstract: | There are several regional trade agreements made amongst Central Asian countries during the transition period. However, the implementation of these agreements remains very restricted which causes limited exchange and flow of agricultural commodities between the countries. The market imperfections caused by state policies, poor market infrastructure and trade restrictions remain as the main challenge for small scale producers in Central Asia. This study analyses input and output price differentiations between the countries and main factors causing those prices. Furthermore, the paper examines the impact of easing those trade barriers on farm level welfare, especially under different climate change scenarios. Therefore, the paper aims at filling in the gap of knowledge about effects of trade barriers on farm gate prices and farmers’ welfare in Central Asia. The farm level prices, production and consumption patterns are analyzed using the data obtained from farm surveys conducted in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Changes in income and expenditure under trade liberalization at country, region (Central Asia and CIS) and world market level is estimated. Per capita income and expenditure changes are estimated for alternative market conditions. The impact of climate change on farm utilities is analyzed using integrated modeling tool which incorporates the climate change module and crop growth simulation model in the expected utility framework. The results show significant difference of farm gate prices of many agricultural commodities except wheat. Salient differences also found between the energy and fertilizer prices among these countries. Political disputes between some Central Asian countries are explained to be the main challenge for restricted trade between the countries. Liberalization of trade may create favorable economic conditions for many regions in Central Asian countries. However, potential gains from market integration are very region and country specific. The integrated model results show that easing commodity exchange between the countries may improve the adaptive capacity of the small scale producers especially in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan under different climate change scenario. |
| Keywords: | Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Agriculture, Regional integration |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:5946&r=cwa |
| By: | Şevket KALANLAR; Dr.A. Ahmet YÜCER; Dr.Şevket KALANLAR; Dr.Muhammet DEMİRTAŞ |
| Abstract: | The aim of this study demographic characteristics of consumers, to identify the relationship between living standards and food shopping habits, determine the level of awareness by the MFAL of measures taken to ensure food safety and to develop recommendations in this context.Research is the largest city in Turkey and 13.7 million people live in Istanbul, made in the first quarter of 2013. Proportional sampling method was used in this study. Making process of sampling margin of error of 1.4% and the 95% confidence interval studied. In addition to the unknown probability value of the subject on the values of p and q are considered to be 0.5. 2106 as a result of the calculations according to these data, the sample size was determined as t. Chi-square analysis of the data, Visual Relationship analysis (TIA), and logistic regression analyzes were used.Consumers are average age 38.32, college graduates 46.3%, family population 3.4, number of children 2.6, the average family income 2.495 TL/month, average food expenditure 610 TL/month, Consumers are the most purchase from supermarkets that red meat (45.3%), chicken meat (56.5%), milk (70%), dairy products (74.8%) while they purchase fresh fruit and vegetables from district market (47.3%), while food most of their attention to freshness and expiration date, reliable information for the food they receive a large proportion of TV and the internet have been identified. MFAL for public health policies, bread, salt and bran rates and arrangements for the school milk program and school canteens located right by consumers and supported. In some applications (increasing the amount of control, establishment of ALO Food Line and implementation arrangements for the sale of pesticides) and are no longer seen by consumers largely underreported. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Agriculture, Other issues |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:6087&r=cwa |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); (Economics and Research Department, ADB); ; |
| Abstract: | The economy of Kazakhstan has performed remarkably well since gaining independence in 1991, with per capita income approaching $13,000. This excellent performance has been the result of both sound macroeconomic policies and a favorable investment climate. However, Kazakhstan’s economy remains heavily dependent on oil, and this dependence is increasing. While in 2000, petroleum accounted for 50% of total exports, by 2010 it represented 61%. Moving forward, Kazakhstan’s strategic development objective is long-term sustainability, which requires diversifying the economy and upgrading the human capital base. Starting in 2010, the Government of Kazakhstan has put in place new programs to increase economic diversification. This report analyzes the degree of diversification of Kazakhstan’s economy during the last 15 years. Using export data, the report documents that, surprisingly, in 2010 Kazakhstan exported fewer products with comparative advantage (the measure of diversification used in this report) than it did one decade ago. Second, the report summarizes the experiences and lessons of Australia, the People’s Republic of China, the European Union, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, and the United States, in modernizing industrial policy tools. And third, the report emphasizes that given that industrial policy should be stage-ofdevelopment dependent, Kazakhstan should implement a modern indirect industrial policy program and a risk-management framework, through the financial markets. |
| Keywords: | kazakhstan, kazakhstan economy, kazakhstan industry, kazakhstan GDP, economic diversification |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt136049-3&r=cwa |
| By: | Dina Azhgaliyeva |
| Abstract: | Recently it has become popular among oil-producing countries to establish oil revenue funds, which are believed to stabilize the economy. However their effectiveness is still under debates. The objectives of this paper to determine what makes funds effective in oil-producing countries. The effect of different types of funds on correlation between exchange rates and oil export was tested using data of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and other 26 oil-producing countries. An effective fund must be able to de-link exchange rates from oil export. The empirical model is based on the findings theoretical model. The data was tested using panel and country-by-country unit roots and cointegration tests. The effectiveness of funds was tested using country-by-country estimation and panel data estimation. The results show that funds can stabilize exchange rates, however just the existence of funds does not guarantee their effectiveness. The results of panel data estimation provide a list of rules (such as accumulation rule, investment, reference oil price and percentage which accumulates funds) which make funds effective. The results show that the oil revenue fund of Azerbaijan is effective in stabilizing exchange rate, but this result is statistically not significant. The results show that the oil revenue fund of Kazakhstan is not effective in stabilizing exchange rate, this result is statistically not significant. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and other oil -producing countryies, Energy, Tax and public finance |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:6023&r=cwa |
| By: | Jeyhun Mammadov; Assoc. Prof. Dr. Jeyhun Mammadov; Prof. Dr. Ingilab Ahmadov; PhD candidate, Kenan Aslanli |
| Abstract: | Natural resource dependence is believed to have potential impact on institutional development, and there is growing consensus in the academic literature that institutional weakness is central to the explanation of the negative effects of resource booms. Generally, the quality of institutional framework and natural resource dependence interact mutually. Natural resources rents can damage institutions by removing incentives to conduct reforms and even to establish a well-functioning bureaucracy. Also, weak institutional quality is the ultimate cause for a disadvantageous management framework of natural resources and process of converting revenue flows into economic development. This paper presents a a comprehensive assessment of the linkage between institutional quality and resource dependence in resource-rich transition countries of the Caspian basin (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkmenistan) with transition economies. Drawing on multiple sources, the paper assembles a comprehensive set of information to date pertaining to the institutional quality for diverse countries of this region, both in terms of country background and levels of economic development. Also, using a panel data set containing information on government effectiveness, we establish the determinants of government effectiveness in Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan over the period of 1996 to 2011. The various combinations of variables were compared experimentally. Once we found the association between government effectiveness and resource rents using panel data analysis, we could rank the countries in terms of government effectiveness. The analysis for the total natural resource rents suggests that, in aggregate, revenues on total natural resources have a negative impact on government effectiveness. The countries with higher average oil rents (% of GDP) and total natural resource rents (% of GDP) have lower rates of government effectiveness. This finding is promising and should be explored with other resource-rich countries. Our results are encouraging and should be validated in a larger set of relevant data which directly and indirectly relates to quality of governance and government effectiveness. These results provide compelling evidence that there is a direct undue influence among variables related to resource abundance and institutional quality. An applied approach in this study can be used in the identification of institutional aspects of the “resource curse” concept. Our study provides the framework for future studies to assess the quality of institutions in resource-rich countries, but has also raised some serious questions. One of the important questions for future studies is to define the mutual influence channels between institutional quality and natural resource dependence using multidimensional variables. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan, Energy, Socio-economic development |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:5994&r=cwa |
| By: | Bedri Kamil Onur Tas |
| Abstract: | In the wake of the recent crisis many countries face problems caused by budget deficits. To be able to lower their budget deficits these governments should conduct their expenditures at the lowest possible prices. To achieve this objective many countries use auctions to administer government procurements. Turkey is one of the countries where government procurement is conducted mainly using first-price auction methodology. In this study, we make use of a unique data set provided by the Public Procurement Authority (PPA) of Turkey which comprises detailed information about all GP auctions for the years 2004-2010, 472560 first-price auctions. Using this data set, we empirically investigate the the optimal competitive environment for lowest procurement costs. First, we analyze the effect of number of bidders on the procurement price (winning bid). Then we examine the main research question of the paper and investigate the optimal number of bidders for different types of products which renders lowest procurement costs. In order to examine the research questions raised in the introduction section we conduct the following analysis. First, we run two sets of regressions in order to separately investigate the effects of our explanatory variables on the bidders' decision to enter an auction and how the auction prices are determined. Following Bajari and Hortacsu (2003), we use a negative binomial regression model to analyze bidders' entry decision and how auction specifications affect the number of participants. Then we conduct the auction price determination regression to analyze the determinants of auction prices and the effect of number of bidders on auction prices. We take into account the possible endogeneity. Endogeneity problem might affect the empirical results since unobserved variables correlated both with the number of bidders and with the auction price might exist. We implement the GMM methodology to control for endogenous regressors. Finally, we search for the optimal number of bidders for each product type by comparing the mean of dependent variables for different number of bidders. Estimation procedures and the results are discussed in detail in the following sections. Using this unique data set, we first analyze the determinants of number of bidders. Then, we focus on the effect of competitive environment on the procurement costs by examining the effect of various explanatory variables on the difference between the contract price and the estimated cost of auctions. Finally, we analyze the optimal number of bidders for different product types. We take into account the endogeneity of the number of bidders while conducting these analysis. We have two major results. First, we show that the number of bidders significantly and negatively affects the procurement price. Thus, existence of a more competitive environment significantly decreases government procurement costs in Turkey. Second, the optimal number of bidders to take the full advantage of competition differs among auctions for different types of products. At least nine bidders are needed for services; six bidders are required for the goods and construction auctions to be able to achieve the lowest procurement price possible. The findings of our study are in line with the standard theoretical predictions of the IPVP auction models and confirm some of the key empirical findings of previous studies like Iimi (2006). |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Public finance, Developing countries |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:6728&r=cwa |
| By: | Elchin Suleymanov; Ayaz Zeynalov; Ruslan Huseynov |
| Abstract: | In the article, valuing of the existing situation of export multiplication in the Azerbaijan Republic has been analyzed. Non-oil sector has not enough pay in the general export of country that enables us to say that there stıll exıst bıg problems. Although non-oil sector has a high export potential, there is very small share in foreign trade and to increase share of non-oil sector in foreign trade were investigate in the article. In thıs article,the present situation of export multiplication in the Azerbaijan Republic has been studıed. The attentıon ıs drown to the fact that non-oil sector could not have a sıgnıfıcant place in the general export of the country and thıs enables us to see the bıg problems. Although non-oil sector has venerable export value ıt could not take an ımportant place ın foreıgn trade. We trıed to analyze the ways of ıncreasıng ıts share in foreign trade and fınd the solutıon of current problems in the article. In the article, valuing of the existing situation of export multiplication in the Azerbaijan Republic has been analyzed. Non-oil sector has not enough pay in the general export of country and it is sign that this sector stay with enough problems. Although non-oil sector has a high export potential, there is very small in export and to increase share of non-oil sector in foreign trade were investigate in the article. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, Trade issues, Regional integration |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:5896&r=cwa |
| By: | Bulat Mukhamediyev; Bulat MUKHAMEDIYEV |
| Abstract: | Favorable period of 2000-2007 years with a high rates of GDP growth in Kazakhstan after the global economic crisis was replaced by a period of its moderate growth. According to estimates of monetary policy rules the National Bank of Kazakhstan concentrated focus on inflation targeting after the surge to 18.7 percent in 2008 and on stabilizing of the exchange rate. In this report an analysis of the different variants of monetary policy based on a small model of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium was performed. The results show that the higher exchange rate leads to lower levels of inflation, and the weaker GDP fluctuations in response to shocks of oil prices. |
| Keywords: | Kazakhstan, General equilibrium modeling, Macroeconometric modeling |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:5330&r=cwa |
| By: | Ingilab Ahmadov |
| Abstract: | Analyze extractive industry governance in Azerbaijan in comprehensive integrated manner (value chain) in order to ensure long term sustainable development in the country. Qualitative, Quantitative and Comparative methodology to consider the hypothesis and trying to prove that value chain approach will impact to extractive industry governance in Azerbaijan positively. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, Energy, Agriculture |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:5985&r=cwa |
| By: | Bekkhan Chokaev; Aleksandr Knobel |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the possible economic effects of free trade agreement, implying a mutual zero import tariffs in the trade between the Customs Union (Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan) and the European Union. Analysis of the effects is made using CGE model.We estimate the impact of an FTA on the economies, both at the level of the entire economy and at the industry level. The sensitivity analysis is made. It is shown that, in both relative and absolute terms, Russia potentially benefits from the agreement more than the EU. The cumulative gain of the CU is strictly positive, but the benefits and costs are unevenly distributed among its members. |
| Keywords: | Russia, General equilibrium modeling, Trade issues |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:7026&r=cwa |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); (Regional and Sustainable Development Department, ADB); ; |
| Abstract: | Based on an analysis of gender inequalities, strategies and promising initiatives to countergender discrimination and promote equality between men and women in Cambodia, Kazakhstan, and the Philippines, as well as an inventory of global good legal, economic, and social practices, this report summarizes the findings and recommendations for these countries. It shows how to improve equitable employment opportunities, remuneration, and treatment for women and men at work to support the development of decent work and gender equality good practices in Cambodia, Kazakhstan, and the Philippines. The report is part of a series consisting of: •Good Global Legal Practices to Promote Gender Equality in the Labor Market •Good Global Economic and Social Practices to Promote Gender Equality in the Labor Market •Gender Equality and the Labor Market: Cambodia, Kazakhstan, and the Philippines •Gender Equality in the Labor Market in Cambodia •Gender Equality in the Labor Market in the Philippines. |
| Keywords: | gender, gender equality, labor market, employment, employment policies, women, cambodia, kazakhstan, philippines, gender development, informal employment, gender gaps, labor force, formal employment, labor support policies, women work, women agriculture |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt136185-3&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Poverty Reduction - Rural Poverty Reduction Gender - Gender and Law Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Regional Economic Development Public Sector Expenditure Policy Public Sector Development |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:19307&r=cwa |
| By: | Fakhri Hasanov; Frederick Joutz |
| Abstract: | The objective of the study is building and using macroeconometric model which ensures analyzing and forecasting the (short run) impacts of various policy measures and external shocks, particularly changes in the oil price, foreign price and income on the Azerbaijani economy.Cointegration and Error Correction Modeling; General to Specific Modeling Strategy; Automatic Model Selection with Impulse Indicator SaturationsWe developed macroeconometric model with the objective of analyzing and forecasting the effects of various domestic policy measures and external shocks, particularly changes in oil price, world income on the Azerbaijani economy. It comprises 13 stochastic equations and 13 identities by covering the real, monetary, fiscal and external sectors of the Azerbaijan economy. The General to Specific Strategy is applied to the Cointegration and Error Correction Modeling in the empirical estimations over the quarterly period of 2000-2010. As we argue, the main contribution of our model is that since its stochastic equations contain information about the long-run relations, short-run dynamics and speed of adjustment from short-run deviation to long-run equilibrium, it has more power for policy analyzing and forecasting than the prior models built for the Azerbaijani economy. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, Other issues, Other issues |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:6017&r=cwa |
| By: | Klaus S. Friesenbichler (WIFO); Michael Böheim (WIFO); Daphne Channa Laster |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a survey of the effects of market competition in the transition economies of Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The pivotal element of the transition was inter-firm competition, which replaced economic planning as the method to identify demand. Pro-competitive policies that facilitated the transition are discussed, including international trade, attracting foreign direct investment and firm entry. Research topics with respect to competition changed as the transition advanced. The focus shifted from churn and macroeconomic shock-management in the initial phases toward firm entry, privatisation and restructuring of incumbents. In the later phases of transition, differentials in aggregate economic performance became obvious, pointing at institutional differences and their interplay with transitions. These are equally reflected by the degree of competition of the business environment. Also the methods changed with the evolution of the research agenda. Early case studies were displaced by large-scale, cross-country econometric studies as survey data became increasingly available. |
| Keywords: | competition, transition, survey, Eastern Europe and Central Asia |
| Date: | 2014–08–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2014:i:477&r=cwa |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); (Central and West Asia Department, ADB); ; |
| Abstract: | This report updates the 2007 private sector assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic. It is based on the experience gathered by the Asian Development Bank over the last 5 years and includes information current as of January 2013. Despite notable examples of entrepreneurship in some industries, such as dairy and garments, the Kyrgyz Republic’s private sector as a whole remains weak and has made little progress in expanding its production capabilities and creating more wealth. The report identifies challenges facing the development of a vibrant private sector—the country’s main driver of economic growth—and suggests interventions for meeting them. |
| Keywords: | kyrgyz republic, private sector assessment, private sector development, business environment, human capital, access to finance, structural transformation, production capabilities, binding constraints |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt136165-3&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Public Sector Expenditure Policy Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Subnational Economic Development Urban Development - Municipal Financial Management Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Public Sector Economics Public Sector Development |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:19311&r=cwa |
| By: | Reza Bagherian; Majid Sanaei |
| Abstract: | The degree of popular participation in development programs is a major determinant of success or failure but the factors which make participation efforts successful still remained a mystery. Many studies have developed numerous and sometimes different views concerning to the dimensions of participation. Most of these literature's tends to be descriptive and rarely applies theory. This study was designed to analyze and modeling the people participation in Watershed Management Programs in Iran by using the framework of social exchange theory and determine the role of this theory in explaining people participate in Watershed Management Programs.In this Research we have modeled social exchange theory as an approach to people participation in watershed resources management projects in Iran.Multiple regression analysis discovered that exchange factors explained 33 percent of variation in the level of people participation in watershed management programs. This study found that social exchange theory is an appropriate perspective to explain level of people participation but participation is a complex issue and future researchers might use multiple perspectives for explaining participation. |
| Keywords: | Iran, Environmental and water issues, Agriculture |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:5817&r=cwa |
| By: | Abdollah Mahmoodi |
| Abstract: | Brain drain Impacts on production Endowments Demand and Prices Brain drain Impacts on Real GDP and Welafre Global trade analysis project reduction in real gdp and welfare in Iran Different impacts on production factors' market |
| Keywords: | Iran and Western countries, Regional modeling, Labor market issues |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:6579&r=cwa |
| By: | Gorkhmaz Imanov |
| Abstract: | Estimation developing level of the national ecnomy Fuzzy set and fuzzy logic theory Define of level of development of the Azerbaijan economic system |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, Macroeconometric modeling, Macroeconometric modeling |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:6625&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Subnational Economic Development Public Sector Expenditure Policy Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Public Sector Economics Public Sector Development |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:19310&r=cwa |
| By: | Bulat Mukhamediyev; Mukhamediyev Bulat |
| Abstract: | For oil producing countries it is important to share rationally oil revenues between current expenditure and savings. The purpose of this paper is to study what impact will have change of the oil revenues accumulation on the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators.Modeling of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium with oil producing sector of economy.Forecasted responses of model variables to internal and external shocks of the economy of Kazakhstan. The influences of changes in the share of oil revenues accumulation in the National Fund on forecasted responses of macroeconomic indicators were found. |
| Keywords: | Kazakhstan, General equilibrium modeling, Developing countries |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:6890&r=cwa |
| By: | Qanimat Safarov |
| Abstract: | This article has investigated the trend of human development in the Azerbaijan Republic. It was accordingly analyze indices subgroups affecting human development, and compared the average for the countries of the Caucasus, the CIS and the world. It was also summarized the factors affecting human development and to develop proposals and recommendations. See above See above |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, Regional integration, Regional integration |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:6315&r=cwa |
| By: | Yulia Vymyatnina |
| Abstract: | A Common Economic Area (CEA) formed by Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus since January 1st 2012, following creation of the Customs Union between these countries in 2007 (and in operation since mid-2010), raises a number of topical questions on whether it can be sustainable, trade-stimulating, efficient in terms of long-run economic growth etc. However, an important part in the effects of inter-country influence within such a union is played by the degree the countries are connected through other than trade policies - monetary policy in general and exchange rate policy in particular. The nature of such inter-connectedness is influenced by the proneness of these countries to ‘resource curse' (or ‘Dutch disease' broadly understood as reallocation of production inputs in the economy due to its dependence on natural resource exports). Our objective is to check how monetary policies (including exchange rate policies) in these countries influence the others in the Customs Union.We use quarterly data for 1996-2010 for Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan on the following economic indicators: real GDP, inflation, bilateral and effective exchange rates, interest rates. Additional data are collected on oil prices, oil-related real GDP in all three countries (estimated using the method suggested by Masaaki 2009), capital flows and a proxy for ‘world GDP’ in real terms. We build a small inter-country forward-looking simultaneous equations model based on the New Keynesian Phillips curve in which economies of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan are described using a number of equations. The model contains two layers of links between countries: explicit one through real effective exchange rates (that rely also on trade intensity between the countries) and implicit one using inter-country averages suggested by GVAR methodology (Chudik and Pesaran 2007). Unlike GVAR, our model uses a small number of countries only, and contains one dominating country (Russia). However, as Monte-Carlo experiments described in Charemza et al (2009) suggest, GVAR methodology can be successfully used in case of small number of countries with a dominating country. Our version of the inter-country model is an adaptation of the model built in Charemza et al (2009) with a number of changes suitable for a different set of countries. While Belarus can be considered small opened economy and microfoundations for the type of model used can be found in e.g. Gali and Monacelli (2005) and Benigno and Benigno (2006), for Russia microfoundations have to be different and are loosely derived following the argument from Sosunov and Zamulin (2007) and Charemza et al (2009). Kazakhstan might be regarded as a somewhat ‘middle’ case, since in terms of economy size it is closer to Belarus, but in terms of expected macroeconomic dependencies might be reasonably considered closer to Russia with a potential threat of the Dutch disease. The first equation for each country describes output gap depending on its own lagged values, real effective exchange rate (REER), world output gap, base interest rate and inter-country averages of output gaps (GVAR methodology). The second equation describes dynamics of non-systematic part of current inflation through lagged inflation, output gap (alternatively – oil-related real GDP), REER, expected deviation of future inflation from its target level (forward-looking equation) and inter-country averages of inflation. The REER is modeled as consisting of two parts – external (proxied by REER with USD and Euro) and internal (REER with the other two countries from the model) with trade shares used as weights (third equation of the model). Bilateral exchange rates are modeled as related to output gaps and REERs of corresponding countries (fourth equation of the model). The model is closed by requiring that bilateral exchange rates (after proper transformations) are inversely related to each other. The last equation of the model describes monetary policy rule for each country, allowing for different modifications depending on the previous research on the topic, Central Banks announcements etc. Bilateral exchange rates modeling allows also to reflect the degree of exchange rate control by the Central Banks of the relevant countries. The equations are estimated using GMM method. The model includes 18 equations in total, being quite parsimonious in terms of parameters – 77 in all equations. Being heavily inter-related through both exchange rates inter-influence and trade inter-influence, the model allows us to simulate spillover effects of various policy measures and pass-through effects of the ‘Dutch disease' between the CEA countries. Simulation experiments (modeling changes in exchange rate regimes, base interest rate (monetary policy changes) and external changes reflected in external part of REER) demonstrate that Belarus is most dependent on the other two counterparts of the union. |
| Keywords: | Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Macroeconometric modeling, Trade issues |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:7160&r=cwa |
| By: | Alovsat Aliyev; PhD. in Economical Sciences, A.G.Aliyev; A.S.Aliyeva |
| Abstract: | Economy and ICTsystem analysis, economic and mathematical modeling, economic and statistical methodsPerfection of assessment methods of ICT impact on the economy and determination of economic development directions basing on ICT |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, Socio-economic development, Socio-economic development |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:6085&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Investment and Investment Climate Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress Public Sector Expenditure Policy Public Sector Development |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:19305&r=cwa |
| By: | Rufat Mammadov |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this article is to show the importance of tourism industry, indicate the current situation of tourism in Azerbaijan, show the current situation in the regions, the current policies and strategies for tourism, and in the conclusion to give proposals for future development of tourism. For this purpose, world literature in tourism will be analyzed, statistical information of Azerbaijan and World Tourism Organization will be used. To formulate the importance of tourism as the industry To show the mistakes in statistical information |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, Socio-economic development, Other issues |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:6014&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Curriculum and Instruction Teaching and Learning Education - Primary Education Education - Education For All Tertiary Education |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:19312&r=cwa |
| By: | Nigar Muradkhanli |
| Abstract: | Researching new solutions of meeting the European increasing energy demand. Estimating Caspian potential and other solutions of this problem like shale gas. The case study is mainly based on qualitative research, with using quantitative and comparative methodologies as well. Showing the role of Caspian countries in energy supply security of Europe. |
| Keywords: | Caspian region and the EU countries, Energy, Socio-economic development |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:5991&r=cwa |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); (Regional and Sustainable Development Department, ADB); ; |
| Abstract: | Increasing job opportunities and decent work for women are essential for advancing economic and social development in countries, because many women continue to experience gender inequalities at work. An analysis of strategies to counter gender discrimination and promote equality between men and women shows how a combination of good practices in law and in social and economic policy can improve equitable employment opportunities, remuneration, and treatment for women and men at work. This report provides some examples of good global economic and social practices to reverse unequal labor market outcomes for women and realize their economic potential to the full. It is part of a series consisting of: •Good Global Economic and Social Practices to Promote Gender Equality in the Labor Market •Good Global Legal Practices to Promote Gender Equality in the Labor Market •Gender Equality and the Labor Market: Cambodia, Kazakhstan, and the Philippines •Gender Equality in the Labor Market in Cambodia •Gender Equality in the Labor Market in the Philippines. |
| Keywords: | gender; women; labor market; global practices; economic; social; gender equality; ADB; ILO; decent work; inclusive growth; Gender-Responsive Fiscal Policy; Gender-Responsive Monetary Policy; Gender-Responsive Trade; employment; employment policies; gender mainstreaming; gender-specific policies; micro enterprises; small enterprises; mircocredit; microfinance; informal economy; school; training; girls; social protection; conditional cash transfer; public employment; social funds; gender analysis; GAD; gender and development; women's association; technical assistance |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt136184-3&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Health, Nutrition and Population - Population Policies Gender - Gender and Law Pensions and Retirement Systems Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Social Protections and Labor |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:19304&r=cwa |
| By: | Telman Aliyev; Telman Aliev, Ali Abbasov, Tofig Babayev, Gambar Quluyev, Fahrad Pashayev |
| Abstract: | The necessity of creating an earthquake early warning system to minimize economic damage is substantiated. The methodology is based on application of robust noise technology for processing of seismic-acoustic signals registered in suspended wells. A technology is offered for processing of seismic-acoustic information for creating an earthquake early warning system in the countries of seismically active regions. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, Infrastructure, Regional integration |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:5890&r=cwa |
| By: | Abdollah Mahmoodi |
| Abstract: | The ECO Regional Integration affects the Trade and Some Macroeconomic Variables of ECO MembersGlobal Trade Analysis Project Modeling Approach Trade policy reform will improve the ECO members' economic performance, by means of greater exports, imports and output, lower import prices, higher endowment demand, and higher consumption, utility and welfare. |
| Keywords: | All Eco Members, Regional integration, Trade issues |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:5805&r=cwa |
| By: | Saeed Rasekhi |
| Abstract: | Intra industry trade may promote bilateral and multilateral trade among the ECO members. The paper has investigated IIT and its potentials between the countries. The methodology is based on recent indices of IIT types. The results indicate low but increasing intra industry trade between the selected countries. Furthermore, an important part of this IIT is allocated to Vertical Intra Industry (VIIT). Then, it seems that ECO's cross country trade is based on comparative advantage currently. We suggest that the members should pay more attention to their bilateral and multilateral IIT to promote trade and cooperation with each other. |
| Keywords: | ECO members based on data availibilty, Trade issues, Trade issues |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:6073&r=cwa |
| By: | Lal Almas; Nazim Uzbey Hajiyev |
| Abstract: | The present article "Study of Current and Potential Comparative Advantage of Azerbaijan Economy", which has been prepared as a contribution to the National Employment Strategy, provides an analysis of the sectors and industries in which Azerbaijan is either currently competitive or there is a potential to become competitive in the future. It is of great significance to define the sectors of the economy which are competitive in the world market and which have comparative advantage for the creation of new jobs.This study proves the existence of the competitive non-oil sectors in Azerbaijan and there are good grounds to suppose that new and competitive industries can develop in the future. Along with the analyses of the current competitive sectors in Azerbaijan, this report recommends to undertake detailed and comprehensive analysis of those sectors which are proved to be currently competitive and to identify the key obstacles hindering their development. These further investigations should also provide a basis for linking comparative advantage with labor markets to create the conditions for competitive industries that generate employment in the sectors outside oil and gas. We hope that future research on the potential of the non-oil sector will explore more opportunities for promoting a sustainable increase in employment. See above See above |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan , Labor market issues, Impact and scenario analysis |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:5501&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Health Monitoring and Evaluation Health, Nutrition and Population - Population Policies Health Systems Development and Reform Health Economics and Finance Disease Control and Prevention |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:19313&r=cwa |
| By: | Alovsat Aliyev; A.G.Aliyev; R.O.Shahverdiyeva |
| Abstract: | high technology parksystem analysis, decision-making, information support systems, economic and mathematical modelingDetermination and management of the impact and role of innovation structures in economic development, as well as to improvement of decision-making process |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, Socio-economic development, Socio-economic development |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:6082&r=cwa |
| By: | Nadjiba Hajiyeva |
| Abstract: | Достижение стабильного роста, модернизация и интеграции экономики страны посредством социально экономического развития регионов.Исходной предпосылкой при формировании и реализации модели развития регионов является заранее предусмотренная совокупность управленческих подходов и организационных действий законодательных и исполнительных органов власти. Для достижения стратегических целей используется системный подход, позволяющий определить значение и роль регионов в стратегии развития страны, принципы формирования структуры экономики регионов, выявить общие закономерности и учитывать специфические особенности конкретных регионов. В ближайшие 3 года рост ВВП в не нефтяном секторе ожидается в среднем на уровне 8% в год, к 2015-м году доля нефтяного сектора в ВВП снизится на почти на 50%, а доля не нефтяного сектора в ВВП возрастет с почти на 20% . |
| Keywords: | Азербайджан, Socio-economic development, Regional integration |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:5976&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Public Sector Expenditure Policy Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Public Sector Economics Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Subnational Economic Development Public Sector Development |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:19301&r=cwa |
| By: | Elchin Akbarov |
| Abstract: | Competitiveness is considered to be the main factor for achieving the success in market economy. Because, the main goal of any commercial organization is to expand its business in market, to make it robust and in worst case to stay in a stable condition without growth. In order to achieve this goal, profit maximizing with high level of sales must be set as the main target and competitiveness is required here. Competitiveness is always in a fashion and of use by developing and developed countries. Developing countries need it to get a market share and developed countries need competitiveness as a new source of growth. Nowadays in line with the globalization, tourism has became as one of the key sphere of development of many countries and recognized as one of the main sources of jobs, wealth, welfare and income. Understanding and measurement of competitiveness in tourism is a major consideration and bearing this in mind this paper has been prepared in order to give an overview of tourism in Azerbaijan, its potential and role in regional integration in the background of some indicators for measuring competitiveness in tourism by OECD. See above See above |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, Impact and scenario analysis, Impact and scenario analysis |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:6409&r=cwa |
| By: | Ali Yousefi; Parisa Karbasi; Amir-mozafar Amini |
| Abstract: | Abstract Production of animal protein has a major role in the human nutrition and health and a large share of economic value-added in agricultural sector. The Iran government implemented the Subsidy Reform Plan (SRP) on December 18, 2010 as the biggest surgery to the nation's economy in half a century in order to replace the subsidies on bread and energy (80% of total) with targeted social assistance. Given the importance of dairy industry, it is essential to determine the positive and negative impact of SRP. The aim of this study is to analysis the temporal effect of SRP on the comparative advantage of dairy farms in 2009 and 2011.Data was collected from a survey of 65 members of Isfahan Industrial Dairy Farms Cooperation through face-to-face interviews based on a structured questionnaire. The comparative advantage of dairy farms has been analyzed in the Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) framework by calculation the ratios of domestic resource cost (DRC), social cost benefit (SCB), nominal protection coefficient of the product (NPCO, NPCI) and effective protection coefficient (EPC).The results indicate that after SRP, the government introduced the new milk price distortion in order to support the consumers, the nominal protection coefficient on tradable inputs (NPCI) has been decreased and farmers pays indirect tax. Moreover, the dairy farms still have the comparative advantage of production, but the DRC ratio has been increased. In order to improve the dairy farm profitability and the farmer’s motivation, it is important to removal of the output price distortions and enhancing farmers' access to input markets. |
| Keywords: | Iran, Agriculture, Tax and public finance |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:6048&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Health Monitoring and Evaluation Public Sector Expenditure Policy Social Protections and Labor - Labor Markets Public Sector Management and Reform Public Sector Economics Public Sector Development Health, Nutrition and Population |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:19309&r=cwa |
| By: | Jalal Gaytaranov; Lewell F. Gunter |
| Abstract: | We focus on recent differences in export performance of transition countries and use recent research on trade facilitation policies and new data on export costs to examine the effect of domestic export costs and external costs to markets on the exports of transition countries. At the same time, productive capacity and domestic demand along with potential market demand are also included in our study. Our focus is on growth in exports rather than growth in GDP, but we are partially motivated by the relationship between the two. Our analysis is going to focus on specific group of transition countries: Former Soviet Union and Central and Eastern Europe countries. In our study we will try to clarify the reasons why the differences continue to exist and what are the main determinants of these variations. Along with traditional export growth determinants we will try to analyze the impact of the specific factors which are related to our sample of transitions. Specific objectives are: •To describe the differences in economic and export growths among the various transition economies in terms of natural resource endowments. •To identify the issues that cause differences in growth of exports in transition countries •To build an econometric model that estimates the impact of various trade costs on the exports of transitions •To analyze the impact of location factor, economic unions and trade agreements on the growth of exports in transition economies. Our empirical model includes a panel of the 28 transition countries for the years from 2005 through 2011. The data period goes back only to 2005 based on the availability of the Export Cost variable. We used Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and GMM Instrumental Variables techniques for the estimation. In our estimation we use the instrument variable GMM estimation technique based on Hansen (2000, Ch. 11), Hayashi (2000, Ch. 3) and Wooldridge (2002, Chapter 8) We chose GMM based on advantages of this approach for our model. First, GMM generates efficient estimates in the presence of heteroskedasticity of unknown form. This is the case in our panel data. After applying Breusch-Pagan / Gook-Weisberg tests we observed heteroskedasticity in our data-set. Even though standard IV estimators with the robust standard errors can be consistent, they are relatively inefficient. Second, efficient GMM has an advantage of consistency in the presence of arbitrary heteroskedasticity. Both econometrically and theoretically our instrument is meeting both exogeneity and relevance conditions and was used in the previous studies (Djankov (2010) Both in the base model and as we add other determinants, based on the previous theory and theoretical relevance, estimated signs and significance levels of the important variables is expected not to change considerably. This can be considered as a type of robustness check for the empirical estimation. Expected positive and significant sign of GDP and Natural Resource variables also indicate that the transition countries with larger economies and greater endowments of natural resources tend to export more. The population variable is expected to be negative and in two out of six specifications (in preliminary results) highly significant. This is consistent with our theoretical foundation, as we were expecting negative relation between the domestic demand and the growth of exports. demand in the major exporting market stays significant as we add other control variables to our base model. Positive and significant parameter on the GDP of major export partners indicates the importance of the demand factor in the main markets. Coefficients for distance from major markets are negative, significant, and of similar magnitude across all specifications reflecting the export depressing impact of higher transportation costs. Highly significant parameter of this variable throughout the specifications indicates the robustness and importance of transportation cost for the export performance in transition countries. Lagged Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) was included in five of the specifications and the coefficients were positive, significant, and of approximately the same magnitude across all of them. Consistently with expectations, higher FDI inflows promote exports of countries through utilization of low-cost human capital and natural resources. As we add business climate and later internal export cost variables into our model all the previous determinants keep their signs and significance levels, with an exception of population variable which gets insignificant. Measure of economic competitiveness was significant and positive in the specifications. The last specifications include dummies of being a member of EU and Central European Free Trade Agreement. Being an EU Member state is estimated to have a positive and significant impact on the export growth in transition countries. On the other hand, Central European Free Trade Agreement estimated to have negative and significant impact on the exports, which is primarily because of the fact that the members of CEFTA trade organization are comparatively less developed (in terms of GDP and exports) representatives of Central and Eastern Europe. As these countries expand their economy and meet the requirements of EU membership, they become no more the members of CEFTA. |
| Keywords: | Transition Economies (Former Societ Union countries; Central and Eastern Europe Countries), Trade issues, Regional integration |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:6052&r=cwa |
| By: | Lal Almas; Nazim U. Hajiyev |
| Abstract: | The economic condition in each country can be determined based on two ratios. One of them is inflation and the other is economic growth. The inflation level is an indicator of economic stability in the country; however, sustainable development is an indicator of economic development and the welfare of the country. Due to the fact that economic development is a vast phenomenon, it consolidates social, ecological, ethical and other factors. The main point here is provision of a fecund environment for sustainable economic development. We would like to note that economic growth cannot provide an adequate approximation of the long-term development; therefore, the provision of the dynamic equilibrium level of economic growth is essential. The research covers a time span of 1996 through 2010 and has the following goals: • Evaluation of the country’s economy and the determination of its dynamic equilibrium level of economic growth using Keynesian Domar model; • Determination of changes in the basic economic determinants by the conduction of Domar table; • Effect of application of obtained results in measurements dedicated to the support of economic growth. The models of economic growth reflect the real economic processes using some simplifications, but holding the main concepts. These models analyze the different points of the economic development and make possible the identification of certain consistencies and rules. We would like to note that the differentiating features of the economic growth models are their ability to grow only in account of capital and labor forces. We know that the economic development is possible under various circumstances such as quality and quantity of economic resources and their changes, economic technologies, technical progress and etc. However, it is not possible without an initial investment. For this reason, the Keynesian model is considered to be the most basic model of economic growth. Thus the main point in this model is determination of factors enabling the dynamic equilibrium growth model. During the modeling of the economic process the simplification and identification of initial inputs is also important. The Domar model is considered a simple Keynesian model and reflects this in the following way [3, 180], [2, 519-520], [4, 250]: (1) here, - the speed of the economic growth t period; - the capital efficiency limit; and - saving norm. As we can see the capital efficiency limit and saving norm are the basic variables of the model and can be estimated using the following quotations: (2) (3) Where - output growth in t period, - investment in the capital in t period, - savings in t period, - output level in t period, and σ - constants. It is obvious that all models are estimated under conditions of predefined limitations. This is due to the fact that a model cannot account for all conditions and terms of actual economic process, which can bring about additional complexity and inconsistencies. From this point of view, the Domar model consists of the following initial conditions [1, 231], [2, 519], [4, 249-250]: 1. The model is based only on the products/goods market; 2. The technology of the production is reflected by the Leontyev function, i.e. the limit of capital efficiency is constant; 3. The labor market is in a saturation condition and there is no lack of labor force; 4. The excessive supply on labor market supports the stable prices; 5. The growth in investments reflects the growth in total supply and total demand, i.e. both total demand and total supply increase only due to increase in investments; 6. There is no amortization of capital; and 7. Correlation between capital (K) and quantity of goods (Y) is (K/Y) reflecting the saving norm Due to the initial terms of the model ( ) is constant. The major conclusions drawn from the model are that limits of product output, investments and capital growth are equal to each other [2, 520], [4, 250]. In other words, (4) During the composition of this model for the Azerbaijani economy we considered the specifics of economic growth and the oil factor of the economy. Considering that the oil and natural gas resources are scarce and limited and the national economy cannot fully rely on it (Holland syndrome), necessary measurement and changes in the national economic policy should be taken. A number of policy measures were implemented in this direction such as establishment of oil fund, saving of oil revenue in foreign banks and etc. However, in order to continue the obtained economic growth, we need to establish and realize the complexity of the necessary measurements. The major role in the establishment of sustainable economic development in Azerbaijan is the identification of the dynamic equilibrium levels of economic growth and the qualitative and quantitative evaluation of actual deviations from this level. It will play a crucial role in the formation of the national economic policy. In order to evaluate the Domar model we should determine its basic inputs – saving norm and the efficiency limit of the capital. Therefore the econometric evaluation of equation (2) was as following: Table 1. the results of econometric evaluation of saving norm Variable ratio Standard deviation t-statistics Probability R_GDP 0.627099 0.0416 15.06642 0.000 C -561.353 300.9516 -1.86526 0.095 Determination ratio 0.94583 Average of the variable 4346.899 Clarified Determination ratio 0.94166 Standard deviation of variable 3197.992 Standard deviation of regression 772.393 Akayk information factor 16.260 Sum of squares of deviations 775568 Schwartz factor 16.355 Log relevance to reality -119.95 F-statistics 226.100 Statistics of Durbin-Watson 1.22534 Probability (F-statistics) 0.00003 Source: the valuation was made by author It can be seen from the results that the model is significant from an economic point of view. According to the determination ratio, 95% of increase in real savings during 1997-2000 can be explained by the increase in real GDP during this period. At the same time, the high level of t-statistics (15.066) shows that the GDP taken as an explanatory variable has a really large impact on other variables within the model. The model supports the stability test and coefficient test at the required level and provides the basis for the economic conclusions. According to the results of the model increase in GDP by one million Azeri Manat (AZN) brings about an increase in savings by 0.62 million AZN. In other words, if our country’s population spends one AZN, it reflects as 38 kopeks of consumption and 62 kopeks for saving. From the population’s point of view this result seems unrealistic. In reality, an increase in income brings about an increase in consumption. It is explained by the fact that the consumption demands of the population are not met yet. However, considering that the inputs of the model contained information not only about population, but also about the government, companies and other organization, we believe that the obtained results can be considered as reliable. Thus the governmental bodies and companies direct their revenues to savings rather than consumption, which forms the savings base of our country. Now let us identify the limit of capital efficiency. For this purpose we observed the relation between the growth of real GDP and capital investments using the econometric evaluation tools: Table 5. The results of evaluation of limit of capital efficiency Variable ratio Standard deviation t-statistics Probability R_CI 0.153436 0.024873 6.168736 0.0000 Determination ratio 0.377072 Average of variable 978.5786 Clarified Determination ratio 0. 377072 Standard deviation of variable 844.4061 Standard deviation of regression 666.4543 Akayk information factor 15.91057 Sum of squares of deviations 5774098. Schwartz factor 15.95622 Log relevance to reality -110.3740 Statistics of Durbin-Watson 0.97980 Source: the valuation was made by author |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, Growth, Impact and scenario analysis |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:6650&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Investment and Investment Climate Public Sector Expenditure Policy Housing and Human Habitats Finance and Financial Sector Development - Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Public Sector Development Communities and Human Settlements |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:19302&r=cwa |
| By: | Seymur Guliyev; Rasim Abutalibov |
| Abstract: | The main objective of the article is to determine the main effects of globalization on social-economic development of a country. Quantitative Research was used in order to gather primary data. On the other hand, Secondary data was used as well so as to complete literature review part of the article. authors expect that only positive impacts of globalization will be founded out |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, Socio-economic development, Regional integration |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:5958&r=cwa |
| By: | Saeed Rasekhi; Somaye Sadeghi |
| Abstract: | business cycle synchronization is an important topic since it involves with transfering economic shocks among the countries with some degree of business cycle synchronization. The synchronization may be increased by integrating. Estimating index of synchronization(de-trended real GDP correlation)and then analyzing the results The results indicate the bilateral Synchronization in ECO integration. So, we suggest that the members should cooperate with each other and pay attention to the effects of their economic policies regarding to the Synchronization. |
| Keywords: | ECO members based on data availibilty, Trade issues, Regional integration |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:6076&r=cwa |
| By: | Bruhn, Miriam; Loeprick, Jan |
| Abstract: | Using a panel of administrative data and regression discontinuity analysis, this paper examines how the introduction of preferential tax regimes for Georgian micro and small businesses in 2010 affects formal firm creation and tax compliance. The results show that the new tax regime for micro businesses increased the number of newly registered formal firms by 18-30 percent below the eligibility threshold during the first year of the reform, but not in subsequent years. The analysis does not find an effect of the new tax regime for small businesses on formal firm creation in any year. Policy makers are often concerned about abuse risks stemming from differentiated tax treatment of micro and small businesses. The analysis in this paper reveals reduced tax compliance in 2010 around the micro business eligibility threshold, but does not find significant evidence of reduced compliance by Georgian firms in later years. The results also do not show any significant evidence of strategic sorting around the regime eligibility thresholds. |
| Keywords: | Debt Markets,Taxation&Subsidies,Microfinance,Emerging Markets,Access to Finance |
| Date: | 2014–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7010&r=cwa |