|
on Central and Western Asia |
|
Issue of 2014‒08‒25
forty-four papers chosen by Christian Zimmermann Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis |
| By: | Acar, Elif Öznur (Cankaya University); Tansel, Aysit (Middle East Technical University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how informality can be defined and measured in the Turkish labor market. Two alternative definitions of informality are used to explore their relevance and implications for the Turkish labor market using descriptive statistics. They are the enterprise definition and the social security definition. Further, contributions of individual and job characteristics to the likelihood of informality are investigated using multivariate probit analysis under the two definitions. The social security registration criterion is found to be a better measure of informality in the Turkish labor market given its ability to capture the key relationships between several individual and employment characteristics and the likelihood of informality. The study suggests that preference should be given to social security definition of labor informality for a more accurate depiction of the Turkish labor market. The suitability of the two alternative definitions of informality in the Turkish labor market and its implications have not been investigated before. |
| Keywords: | informality, definition, measurement and likelihood, Turkey |
| JEL: | J20 J21 J24 O17 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8377&r=cwa |
| By: | Mustafa İsmihan (Atilim University); Burcu Dinçergök (Atilim University); Seyit Mümin Cilasun (Atilim University) |
| Abstract: | Empirical results on the link between financial development and economic growth is mixed in Turkey. However, existing studies did not take into account the fact that Turkey has experienced endemic political and economic instabilities over extended periods. As a consequence of such instabilities, Turkish economy has shown frequent growth accelerations and collapses. Moreover, Turkish banking sector preferred to finance public borrowing rather than lending to the private sector due to the prevalence of high real interest rates on government bonds particularly during the 1990s. This study, therefore, aims to analyze the role of overall macroeconomic instability and public borrowing on finance-growth nexus in Turkey by using time series econometric techniques over the 1980-2010 period. After taking into account the effects of overall instability and public borrowing, we found a significant finance-growth link. |
| Keywords: | Financial Development, Public Debt, Macroeconomic Instability, Growth, Turkey |
| JEL: | E10 E44 E20 O40 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eyd:cp2013:271&r=cwa |
| By: | Masterson, Thomas (Levy Economics Institute, USA); Zacharias , Ajit (Levy Economics Institute, USA); Antonopoulous, Rania (Levy Economics Institute, USA); Memiş, Emel (Ankara University, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | Not available |
| Keywords: | Not available |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eyd:cp2013:23&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Date: | 2013–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16532&r=cwa |
| By: | Dudu, Hasan (EC JRC-JRC IPTS, Sevilla, Spain); Çakmak, Erol Hasan (TED University, Department of Economics, Ankara, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | This study quantifies the economic effects of climate change on Turkey. We use an integrated framework that combines a static regional and a dynamic national economy-wide model with a crop water requirement model. Results suggest that the economic effects of climate change will not be significant until late 2030s. This provides Turkey an excellent opportunity to design and implement appropriate adaptation policies. The impact varies across regions. Agriculture and food production will be heavily affected, and irrigated production will decline as water stress increases. Together, this causes significant decline in agricultural production and national welfare. Part of agriculture’s decline is compensated by imports, thus deteriorating Turkey’s food trade balance. |
| Keywords: | Computable general equilibrium, climate change, agriculture, productivity |
| JEL: | C68 D24 Q1 Q54 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eyd:cp2013:310&r=cwa |
| By: | Üngör, Murat (Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Ankara, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | When examined in isolation, the 2002-2007 period in Turkey stands out as a high growth period. However, the relative performance of Turkey in this period is weaker compared to China. The service sector in Turkey had the lowest labor productivity growth rate. Counterfactual experiments based on a three-sector model point out that the service sector represented a drag on aggregate productivity in Turkey. Using a newly constructed detailed sectoral database for China, I argue that if the service sector in Turkey had had the same annual productivity growth rates as observed in China, then the average annual growth rate of the aggregate labor productivity would have been 7.8% instead of 5.7% during 2002-2007. |
| Keywords: | Sectoral productivity; services; China; Turkey. |
| JEL: | O11 O40 O57 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eyd:cp2013:218&r=cwa |
| By: | Kılıçaslan, Yılmaz (Department of Economics, Anadolu University, Eskişehir, Turkey); Kayış, Aliye Atay (Department of Econometrics, Süleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey.); Sickles, Robin (Department of Economics, Rice University, Houston, TX, USA.); Üçdoğruk, Yeşim (Department of Economics, Dokuz Eylül University, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to explore the impact of ICT on output and/or productivity growth in Turkish manufacturing. The analysis is based on the firm level data obtain from Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) and covers the period from 2003 to 2010. Two different methodologies are used in exploring the impact of ICT on output growth or productivity. The first method is what is called “growth accounting”. This methodology decomposes output/productivity growth into its sources and shows how much of the growth is due to production factor changes or TFP. The second approach to TFP calculation and ICT impact analysis will be an econometric approach. Econometric modeling will be based both on static and dynamic panel data analysis, i.e. Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM). Our preliminary findings show that the impact of ICT capital is twice larger than that of conventional capital. |
| Keywords: | Productivity, TFP, ICT, manufacturing industry, Turkey |
| JEL: | D24 L60 O14 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eyd:cp2013:295&r=cwa |
| By: | Cevriye Aysoy; Cem Aysoy; Semih Tumen |
| Abstract: | [EN] Using a national panel of housing units, this paper analyzes the rate of nominal rigidities in housing rents in Turkey between 2008 and 2011. We find that, on average, 31.5 percent of the rents did not change from year to year in nominal terms. We then ask if the incidence of nominal rigidity depends on the turnover status of the housing unit. We show that 35.4 percent of the non-turnover units had rigid rents, while for only 17.1 percent of the turnover units rents did not change. We also present evidence that grid pricing is responsible for more than half of the observed nominal rigidities in housing rents. Implications of these results for monetary policy, inflation accounting, and asset prices are discussed. [TR] Bu çalýþmada, TÜÝK tarafýndan 2008-2011 yýllarý arasýnda uygulanan Gelir ve Yaþam Koþullarý Araþtýrmasý verisi kullanýlarak Türkiye’de konut kiralarýndaki katýlýðýn derecesi ölçülmektedir. Nominal kiralarýn yýllýk bazda ortalama yüzde 31,5’inin deðiþmediði bulunmuþtur. Sonraki aþamada, kiralardaki katýlýðýn kiracýlarýn ev deðiþtirme oranýyla iliþkisi incelenmiþtir. Katýlýk derecesi evlerinideðiþtirmeyen birimlerde yüzde 35,4’e kadar çýkarken, ev deðiþtirenlerde bu oran yüzde 17,1’e kadar düþmektedir. Bunun yanýsýra, kiralarda gözlenen katýlýðýn yarýsýndan fazlasýnýn da yuvarlama etkisinden kaynaklandýðý gösterilmiþtir. Ayrýca, para politikasý, enflasyon ve varlýk fiyatlamasýgibi konulardaki etkilerde tartýþýlmýþtýr. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1412&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Access and Equity in Basic Education Teaching and Learning Social Protections and Labor - Labor Markets Education - Primary Education Education - Education For All |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17561&r=cwa |
| By: | Derya Fındık (Department of Science and Technology Policy Studies, Middle East Technical University); Aysıt Tansel (Cornell University, Ithaca, USA, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effect of intangible investment on firm efficiency with an emphasis on its software component. Stochastic production frontier approach is used to simultaneously estimate the production function and the determinants of technical efficiency in the software intensive manufacturing firms in Turkey for the period 2003-2007. Firms are classified based on the technology group. High technology and low technology firms are estimated separately in order to reveal differentials in their firm efficiency. The results show that the effect of software investment on firm efficiency is larger in high technology firms which operate in areas such as chemicals, electricity, and machinery as compared to that of the low technology firms which operate in areas such as textiles, food, paper, and unclassified manufacturing. Further, among the high technology firms, the effect of the software investment is smaller than the effect of research and development personnel expenditure. This result shows that the presence of R&D personnel is more important than the software investment for software intensive manufacturing firms in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | intangible investment, software investment, efficiency |
| JEL: | L21 L22 L23 L25 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eyd:cp2013:235&r=cwa |
| By: | Leyla Baştav (Department of Legal Affairs, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BRSA), Ankara, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | This study aims to analyze the structural traits of the US (1990-2011) and Turkish economy (2000-2012) with regards to hysteresis (persistent unemployment) in labor markets. Under the New Keynesian framework two major lines of thought explain unemployment patterns: Non Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemploymet - NAIRU (or the natural rate of unemployment) and the alternative theory of hysteresis. Following pioneering work of Blanchard and Summers (1986) empirical research has emerged on hysteresis for OECD countries. Following, Jaeger and Parkinson (1991), Roed (1996), Mitchell (1993), Arestis&Mariscal (2000) have conducted studies on unemployment series for various OECD countries. Although with different methodologies, studies diagnose the presence of hysteresis in many countries. Ball in 1997 has revealed significant relation between change in NAIRU, fall in inflation and length of disinflation policies for OECD countries for 1980’s where the only relevant labor market explanatory variable magnifying hysteresis isunemployment benefits. In a similar work dated 1999 Ball detected monetary policy variable as explanatory for NAIRU (and alternatively hysteresis) dependent variable . There are even fewer studies on Turkish labor market hysteresis. While Ener and Arıca (2011) refuted (only refuting work) hysteresis with panel unit root stationarity tests, Gözgör (2012) has detected hysteresis by the same tool of analysis. Bildirici, Ersin, Türkmen &Yalçınkaya (2012), Küçükkale (2002) have also detected hysteresis by statistical analysis and econometric estimation respectively. Nonstationarity of the unemployment series provide us preliminary evidence due to possible presence of hysteresis in both economies. Following, separate wage inflation equations are estimated in the form of New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve (NKWPC) and New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) by OLS and GMM methodologies (for Turkey and USA respectively) with employment (and unemployment) vs rate of change of employment (and unemployment) as explanatory variables Alternatively wage and price equations are further estimated against output gap and growth of excess demand variables. Analysis results did reveal hysteresis patterns for the rate of change of excess output estimations for both economies, whereas employment, unemployment variables turned economically and statistically insignificant/unmeaningful which hint that hysteresis patterns are not due to Insider-Outsider mechanism of labor markets but rather macroeconomic environment and policy which fit better into Long Term Unemployment (human capital) hypothesis framework. Low turnover and shooting long term unemployment are also detected during times of recession in US, whereas in Turkey turnover (total separations) is high during busts with high unemployment along with long run unemployment hike. As opposed to US, pattern in Turkey fits more into human capital framework where rising long term unemployment can be reversed with job creation by appropriate policy measures. Unfavorable shocks and economic policy response or labor market structure may trigger hysteresis according to which economic policy choice should be made: demand management policies vs structural reforms in labor markets. Although there is capturing picture around recessions (and/or depressions) in the form of stylized facts, there is stil need for further research to reach solid empirical background to build up the theoretical dynamics. |
| Keywords: | New Keynesian economics, business cycles, labor market structure, hysteresis, time series models |
| JEL: | E12 E24 E32 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eyd:cp2013:230&r=cwa |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); (East Asia Department, ADB); ; |
| Abstract: | This project study was initiated by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) as part of the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Transport and Trade Facilitation Strategy. Its objective is to identify areas for improvement in the administration and application of sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) regulations, procedures, and standards in the CAREC region. It recommends a set of concerted, coordinated measures designed to improve and reduce delays in handling perishable goods in transit (and particularly at border crossing points), ensure that food is safe for consumers, and prevent the spread of pests and diseases among animals and plants. The study is based on an examination of SPS measures as applied in the People’s Republic of China, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan. The study involved a wide-ranging assessment of current procedures for animal and plant quarantine, veterinary inspection, food safety inspection, and risk analysis and assessment, assessing conformity with internationally accepted standards. |
| Keywords: | adb, asian development bank, asdb, asia, pacific, poverty asia, trade facilitation, agricultural products, food products, carec, Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation, afghanistan, azerbaijan, china, prc, kazakhstan, kyrgyz republic, mongolia, pakistan, tajik, sanitary and phytosanitary standard, perishable goods |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt135393-2&r=cwa |
| By: | Erlat, Haluk (METU, Department of Economics, Ankara, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | In our previous research on the pattern of Turkish trade (Erlat and Erlat, 2012) we tried to establish if this pattern had a persistent nature or whether it was dynamic. In doing so we used tools originally developed by Gagnon and Rose (1995) and later used by Carolan, Singh and Talati (1998) and Carter and Li (2002, 2004). These involved (i) classifying the sectors as surplus, balance and deficit sectors and constructing 3x3 contingency tables indicating whether sectors, say, that showed a deficit at the beginning of a period, remained deficit sectors at the end of the period or became balance and surplus sectors; (ii) testing whether the pattern at the end of the period was independent of the pattern at the beginning period, and (iii) constructing histograms regarding the distribution of how long the sectors have been showing surpluses over the period. We consider three aspects of this approach that may require improvement: (i) The results are highly aggregated even though the data used, at least in Erlat and Erlat (2012), are at the SITC 5 digit level. (ii) The results refer to the comparison between the beginning and ending of two periods that are years apart. Thus, how the patterns at the end of the period are reached is not investigated. (iii) The only tools that take the individual sectors and how they behave during the period into account are the histograms. To remedy these shortcomings, we followed Carolan, Mora and Singh (2012)’s lead and applied time series methods to individual sectors to obtain information about the path their trade balances took over the period under consideration. This also allowed us to pinpoint those sectors that have been successful in trade. We first constructed two series using export and import data for the sectors to be considered. First, we have the normalized trade balance for sector i at time t, NBit, to be used as the subject of the time series analysis. Second, we have the normalized trade volume for sector i at time t, NVit, to be used in presenting the results of the time series analysis. The sum of the NVit across i for any t is always 100. It, thus, shows the significance of the ith good (or sector) in overall trade. Since the focus of our time series analysis was the NBit, we established if the trade balance of a given sector increased, decreased or remained the same. This means that we needed to be interested in the long run movement of the NBit; in other words, the trend component in the series. This component may be stochastic, implying the presence of a unit root, or deterministic, implying a trend stationary series. In the second case, the sign of a statistically significant coefficient for the linear trend term will indicate to us the direction of the change while a statistically insignificant coefficient would imply that there has been no significant change in the trade balance of that sector. We used two tests for this purpose. The first one had the existence of a unit root as its null hypothesis and our test for this was the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. The second had stationarity as its null and the test we used was Kwiatowski, Phillips, Schmidt and Shin (KPSS) test. The joint use of the ADF and KPSS tests leads to the classification of the sectors into eight groups. Groups IV-VII contain results where there are no conflicts. Of these IV indicates that the series are nonstationary while VI-VII indicate that they are stationary. Groups I-III and VIII indicate conflicts. However, we used the results in I-III by regarding the stationarity obtained by the KPSS test as an indication that ADF lacks power in the sense that the null of a unit root would have been rejected. The conflict in VIII implies that the NBit has neither a unit root, nor is it stationary. Thus, these sectors were ignored. The data are the same ones used in Erlat and Erlat (2012) and will enable us to compare our results with those obtained in that paper. They are from 5-sectors but we eliminated those sectors that either had no exports or imports or both at any year during the period in question. This reduced the number of sectors to be analyzed to 1118. We also used the technological classification of the data and the presentation of the results as in Erlat and Erlat (2012). When we look at the aggregate results of this paper, we find that there is not much that is new compared to those in Erlat and Erlat (2012). But, when we consider the disaggregated results, we find information about the nature of the dynamism in the sectors classified as such. We find that the number and share in 2001 trade of positive change sectors is larger in all categories except Raw-Material Intensive Goods, a category including more traditional export sectors. sectors but we eliminated those sectors that either had no exports or imports or both at any year during the period in question. This reduced the number of sectors to be analyzed to 1118. We also used the technological classification of the data and the presentation of the results as in Erlat and Erlat (2012). When we look at the aggregate results of this paper, we find that there is not much that is new compared to those in Erlat and Erlat (2012). But, when we consider the disaggregated results, we find information about the nature of the dynamism in the sectors classified as such. We find that the number and share in 2001 trade of positive change sectors is larger in all categories except Raw-Material Intensive Goods, a category including more traditional export sectors. By the same token, Difficult-to-Imitate Research Intensive Goods appears to be the most dynamic sector with 21 top dynamic 5-digit sectors. Hence, we are able to say that Turkey not only has a dynamic tra |
| Keywords: | Not available |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eyd:cp2013:300&r=cwa |
| By: | Aziz Atamanov |
| Keywords: | Poverty Reduction - Rural Poverty Reduction Economic Theory and Research Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Regional Economic Development Poverty Reduction - Poverty Lines |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16455&r=cwa |
| By: | Çelik, Orkun (Gumushane University, Department of Economics, Gumushane, Turkey); Selim, Sibel (Celal Bayar University, Department of Econometrics, Manisa, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | Ücret farklılıkları konusu, Türkiye gibi gelişmekte olan ülkelerin emek piyasalarında sıkça rastlanan bir sorun olmaktadır. Oluşan bu ücret farklılıkları, piyasa aksaklıklarından kaynaklanabildiği gibi bireylerin nitelik farklılıklarından da kaynaklanabilmektedir. Özellikle kırsal ve kentsel kesimdeki çalışanların eğitim, sağlık hizmetlerine erişimlerinin farklı olması, kalkınma düzeylerindeki farklılıklar ve daha birçok nedenden dolayı bireysel gelir farklılıkları oluşmaktadır. Bireysel nitelik farklılıklarından oluşan ücret farklılıkları, İnsan Sermayesi Teorisi’nde genişçe yer bulmaktadır. Oluşan nitelik farklılığı ücretlere zamanla yansımakta ve bireyler arasında gelir farklılıklarına yol açmaktadır. Bu çalışmada amaç, Türkiye geneli, kentsel ve kırsal kesimdeki kamu ve özel sektörde çalışan kadın ve erkekler arasında oluşan gelir farklılıklarının analiz edilmesidir. Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK)’nun hazırlamış olduğu 2011 yılı Hanehalkı İşgücü Araştırması mikro veri seti kullanılarak elde edilen En Küçük Kareler (OLS) ve Kantil Regresyon (QR) model sonuçları karşılaştırılmıştır. İşgücü piyasasındaki ücret farklılıkları ve QR modeli kapsamında literatürde yapılmış olan çalışmalar sayıca sınırlıdır. Bu çalışma, sınırlı olan literatüre hem temel insan sermayesi hem de genişletilmiş modeller açısından katkıda bulunacaktır.Keywords: Ücret farklılıkları, İnsan Sermayesi Teorisi, Kantil Regresyon Yaklaşımı |
| JEL: | J30 J31 E24 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eyd:cp2013:276&r=cwa |
| By: | Johannes Koettl; Elizabeth Mata; Gady Saiovici; Indhira Santos |
| Keywords: | Social Protections and Labor - Labor Markets Governance - Youth and Governance Social Protections and Labor - Labor Policies Social Protections and Assistance Economic Theory and Research Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16956&r=cwa |
| By: | İsmihan, Mustafa (Atilim University, Ankara, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | Gelişmekte olan ülkeler farklı ve genellikle kalıcı olmayan büyüme ve verimlilik performansı sergilemektedir. Bu makale, Türkiye deneyiminden esinlerek, büyüme ve verimlilikteki uzun dönemli aşırı oynaklığı basit bir toplam faktör verimliliği modeli oluşturarak açıklamayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda, bu çalışmada yeni politik ekonomi yazını (özellikle, sosyo-politik ve kurumsal unsurlar dikkate alınarak) teorik bir köprü olarak kullanılıp kısa ve orta vadedeki makroekonomik çıktıların uzun vadede ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkileri basit bir üretim fonksiyonu çerçevesinde incelenecek ve Türkiye için zaman serisi analizi sunulacaktır. |
| Keywords: | Toplam faktör verimliliği, İstikrarsızlık, Ekonomik büyüme, Politik ekonomi. |
| JEL: | E60 O40 O50 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eyd:cp2013:311&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Markets and Market Access Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets |
| Date: | 2013–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16526&r=cwa |
| By: | Sakarya, Burçhan (BRSA/Strategy Development Department, Ankara,Turkey); Kaya, Yasemin Türker (BRSA/Strategy Development Department, Ankara,Turkey) |
| Abstract: | Bu araştırmanın temel amacı, Türkiye’de faaliyet gösteren mevduat ve katılım bankaların karşılaştırmalı analizini yapmak ve katılım bankalarının hangi alanlarda farklılaştığını irdelemektir. Bu çerçeve katılım bankacılığı için ifade edilen en önemli önermelerin sınanması amaçlanmaktadır. Bu önermelerden ilki katılım bankalarla geleneksel ticari bankalar arasında özkaynak açısından farklılığın bulunmasıdır. Diğer bir önemli önerme (veya ön kabul) ise, katlım bankalarının ile ticari bankalardan aktif kalitesi ve kârlılık açısından farklılık arz etmesidir. Çalışmada 2005-2012 döneminde Türkiye’de faaliyette bulunan mevduat bankaları ile katılım bankaları panel veri yöntemi ile incelenmiş ve katılım bankalarının daha yüksek özkaynakla çalışarak, finansal aracılık faaliyetlerine odaklanırken, diğer bankalardan etkinlik ve kârlılık açsından bir farklılık arz etmedikleridir. |
| Keywords: | Katılım Bankaları, Panel Veri |
| JEL: | G20 G21 C33 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eyd:cp2013:215&r=cwa |
| By: | Vahap Taştan (Yıldız Teknik Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İktisat, İstanbul) |
| Abstract: | Güney Gaz Koridoru, Avrupa Birliği’nin enerji politikalarında önemli bir yere sahiptir. Alhaiji’ye (2007) göre, 1970’lerdeki petrol krizlerinin literatüre en büyük katkısı “Enerji Arzı Güvenliğidir”. Aynı çalışmada Enerji Güvenliği, batılı devletlerin kullandığı bir kavram olarak ifade edilmektedir. Avrupa Birliği’nin özellikle Rusya-Ukrayna krizinden sonra konuya bakış açısı değişmiştir. Ortadoğu’daki siyasi istikrarsızlık ortamı ve Rusya-Gazprom’un politikaları, Avrupa Birliği’ni güvenli enerji arzı arayışına itmiştir. Zira Avrupa Birliği Gazprom’un politikalarından son derece rahatsızdır. Ayrıca Avrupa’nın kullandığı gazın, Rusya’dan ithal edilen kısmının %30’u geçmesi Enerji Güvenliği açısından önemli bir tehdit unsurudur. Bu bağlamda Güney Gaz Koridoru, yeni ve güvenli arz kaynağı olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Türkiye ise “Yeni Enerji Düzeni’nde” transit ülke olarak artık masada yer almaktadır.Çalışma, Güney Gaz Koridoru’nun Yeni Enerji Düzeni’nde önemini “oyun teorik” çerçevede tartışmayı amaçlamaktadır. Ayrıca Gazprom-Ukrayna krizi ve Güney Gaz Koridoruna karşı strateji olarak karşımıza çıkan Güney Akım’ın da varlığı farklı modeller çerçevesinde irdelenecektir. |
| Keywords: | Enerji, Doğalgaz, Arz Güvenliği, Rusya, Güney Kafkasya, Türkiye |
| JEL: | Q41 Q43 C73 F02 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eyd:cp2013:240&r=cwa |
| By: | Teymour Abdel Aziz; Peter McConaghy |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Microfinance Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Banks and Banking Reform |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18154&r=cwa |
| By: | Yeldan, Erinç (Yasar University, Department of Economics, Izmir, Turkey); Taşçı, Kamil (Republic of Turkey Ministry of Development, Ankara, Turkey); Voyvoda, Ebru (METU, Department of Economics, Ankara, Turkey); Özsan, Emin (Republic of Turkey Ministry of Development, Ankara, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | Not available |
| Keywords: | Not available |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eyd:cp2013:306&r=cwa |
| By: | Arman Vatyan |
| Keywords: | Private Sector Development - E-Business Social Protections and Labor - Labor Policies Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Knowledge Economy Public Sector Development |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17081&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Energy - Energy Production and Transportation Housing and Human Habitats Social Development - Social Accountability Conflict and Development - Post Conflict Reconstruction Communities and Human Settlements |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18652&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policies Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Environment |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16688&r=cwa |
| By: | Celal Taşdoğan (Gazi University, College of Banking and Insurance, Ankara, Turkey); Selim Çağatay (Akdeniz University, Department of Economics, Antalya, Turkey); Reyhan Özeş (Akdeniz University, Department of Economics, Antalya, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | Türkiye’de Enerji Piyasası Düzenleme Kurulu benzin ve motorin türlerine ilişkin teknik düzenleme tebliğlerinde yapılan değişiklikler ile piyasaya akaryakıt olarak arz edilen benzinin yerli tarım ürünlerinden üretilmiş etanol içeriğini 2013 için en az %2, 2014 için ise en az %3 olarak belirlemiştir. Buna ek olarak Avrupa Birliği’nin de üye ülkeler için bu karışım oranlarını 2020 yılına kadar %10 olarak hedeflediğinden Türkiye’de anılan oranların aşamalı olarak artırılacağı öngörülmektedir. Biyo-etanol kullanım hedeflerin tarım ürünleri piyasaları, gıda güvencesi, faktör piyasaları ve hanehalkı gelirleri üzerinde çok boyutlu etkiler yaratacağı düşünülmektedir. Çalışmada muhtemel etkileri alternatif senaryolarla açıklayabilmek amacıyla iki aşamalı bir yöntem kullanmaktadır. İlk aşamada, biyo-etanol hammaddeleri olarak kabul edilen buğday, mısır ve şeker pancarı ürünlerinin de dahil olduğu çok ülkeli-çok mallı, ikili dış ticarete izin veren, kısmi denge de dinamik çözüm üreten tarımsal ticaret modeli olan Akdeniz Dünya Ticaret Modeli (ADTM) kullanılmaktadır. Bu model söz konusu hammaddelerin dünya fiyatlarını çözerek, alternatif senaryolar için bahsi geçen ürünlerin yurtiçi fiyat ve miktarlarını çıktı olarak vermektedir. İkinci aşamada ise ADTM’den elde edilen senaryo sonuçları tarım sektörü odaklı düzenlemiş bir Sosyal Hesaplar Matrisi’nde girdi olarak kullanılmakta ve bu matris çarpanları ile faktör piyasaları ve hanehalkı gelir etkileri hesaplanmaktadır. Çalışma yapılması planlanan politika değişikliklerin ortaya çıkaracağı çok boyutlu etkilerin daha geniş bir perspektif ile takip edilmesine imkân sağlamasının yanı sıra alternatif senaryolar için politika yapıcıların kullanabileceği ampirik ve metodolojik açıdan güçlü bir araç sunmaktadır. |
| Keywords: | Biyo-etanol, Kısmi denge, Tarım ticaret modeli, Sosyal hesaplar matrisi |
| JEL: | C63 Q16 Q42 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eyd:cp2013:289&r=cwa |
| By: | Tokatlıoğlu, Yağmur (Gazi University, Department of Econometrics, Ankara, Turkey); Saraçoğlu, Bedriye (Gazi University, Department of Econometrics, Ankara, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | 2008 küresel kriz ile birlikte özellikle az gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelere yönelik sermaye akımlarında artış gözlemlenmiştir. Bu durum, bahsi geçen ülkelerin finansal sistemlerinde kırılganlık yaratmıştır. Ayrıca günümüzde birçok merkez bankasının hedefi, fiyat istikrarını sağlamanın yanında finansal istikrarı sağlama olmuştur. Merkez bankaları, finansal sistemlerinin kırılganlığını azaltacak yeni para politikası araçları arayışlarına başlamışlardır. Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası da finansal sistemdeki kırılganlığı önlemek için geleneksel olmayan para politikaları geliştirmeye başlamıştır. Bunlardan biri de rezerv opsiyon mekanizmasıdır. Rezerv opsiyon mekanizması, bankalara Türk lirası zorunlu karşılıklarının belli bir bölümünü yabancı para veya altın olarak tutabilmelerine imkan tanıyan bir uygulamadır. Bu imkanın bankalar tarafından ne kadar kullanılacağı rezerv opsiyon oranı ve rezerv opsiyon katsayısı ile belirlenir. Otomatik dengeleyici olarak kullanılan rezerv opsiyon mekanizmasının döviz kuru ve piyasa likiditesi oynaklığını azaltmada etkisinin olduğu söylenmektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası tarafından bir para politikası aracı olarak kullanılan rezerv opsiyon mekanizmasının tanıtılması, işleyişinin açıklanması ve Türkiye’deki finansal sisteme olan etkisinin araştırılması amaçlanmaktadır.Keywords: Rezerv opsiyon mekanizması, geleneksel olmayan para politikası, finansal istikrar |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eyd:cp2013:291&r=cwa |
| By: | Clemens, Jeffrey |
| Abstract: | In the mid-2000s, U.S. anti-opium policy intensified with a goal of reducing the resources available to Afghan insurgents. To achieve this objective, I show that opium suppression efforts must accurately distinguish between insurgent and non-insurgent suppliers. The required level of accuracy will be particularly high if demand for opium is inelastic and if the insurgents’ initial market share is large. Empirically, I show that demand for Afghan opium is relatively inelastic, that the market share of Taliban-heavy areas is large, and that enforcement has primarily impacted non-Taliban territory. Consequently, anti-opium efforts have significantly increased the drug-trade resources flowing to the Taliban. |
| Keywords: | National Security, Drug Control Policy, Policy Evaluation, Economics of Crime, Economics of Insurgency |
| JEL: | D78 H00 H50 H56 |
| Date: | 2013–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:57890&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policies Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Environment |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18650&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Access and Equity in Basic Education Teaching and Learning Education - Education For All Tertiary Education Governance - National Governance |
| Date: | 2013–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16531&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Environmental Economics and Policies Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Banks and Banking Reform Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Environment |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16719&r=cwa |
| By: | Claudia Nassif; Omar Joya; Guillemette Sidonie Jaffrin |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Environmental Economics and Policies Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Banks and Banking Reform Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Environment |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16510&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Gender - Gender and Development Population and Development Social Protections and Labor - Employment and Unemployment Health, Nutrition and Population - Reproductive Health Education - Educational Policy and Planning |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18661&r=cwa |
| By: | Francisco Carneiro; Marina Bakanova |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy and Planning Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Social Protections and Labor - Labor Policies Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Health, Nutrition and Population - Population Policies Transport |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18931&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Environmental Economics and Policies Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Banks and Banking Reform Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Environment |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16720&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Water Supply and Sanitation - Wastewater Treatment Environmental Economics and Policies Private Sector Development - E-Business Mining and Extractive Industry (Non-Energy) Water Supply and Sanitation - Sanitation and Sewerage Industry Environment |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18957&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policies Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Markets and Market Access Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Environment |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16781&r=cwa |
| By: | Artur Kochnakyan; Sunil Kumar Khosla; Iskander Buranov; Kathrin Hofer; Denzel Hankinson; Joshua Finn |
| Keywords: | Environment - Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Climate Change Economics Energy - Energy Production and Transportation Environment - Environment and Energy Efficiency Energy - Energy and Environment |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17596&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Environment - Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Climate Change Economics Transport Economics Policy and Planning Science and Technology Development - Science of Climate Change Environmental Economics and Policies Transport |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17549&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Subnational Economic Development Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Banks and Banking Reform Public Sector Expenditure Policy Public Sector Development |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18640&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Public Sector Expenditure Policy Banks and Banking Reform Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Public Sector Economics Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Subnational Economic Development Public Sector Development |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16684&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Public Sector Expenditure Policy Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Subnational Economic Development Finance and Financial Sector Development - Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Banks and Banking Reform Public Sector Development |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16793&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Environment - Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases Health Monitoring and Evaluation Water Supply and Sanitation - Water Supply and Sanitation Governance and Institutions Science and Technology Development - Science of Climate Change Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Climate Change Economics Health, Nutrition and Population |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17550&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Environmental Economics and Policies Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Environment |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18659&r=cwa |