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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Erten, Irem; Okay, Nesrin |
| Abstract: | The goal of this paper is to examine the sustainability of the trade deficit of Turkey with cointegration techniques allowing for structural breaks. We follow Husted (1992) model, which shows that if a country’s exports and imports are cointegrated, and if the cointegrating vector is (1,-1), then its trade deficit is sustainable. First, classical cointegration tests indicate that exports and imports are cointegrated, but the cointegrating vector significantly differs from (1,-1). Next, the existence of cointegration is confirmed with an alternative method proposed by Silvestre and Sanso (2006) controlling for structural breaks. Our analysis detects two breaks in the cointegration relationship on 2001:01, and 2008:09, coinciding with economic crises. We show that since 2001, Turkish trade deficit has not been sustainable in the strong form, and after 2008, the country has moved away from sustainability. Based on our analysis, the sustainability of Turkey’s widening trade deficit is highly doubtful. |
| Keywords: | Exports, Imports, Trade Deficit, Sustainability, Cointegration, Structural Breaks |
| JEL: | C22 E6 G14 G15 |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:56191&r=cwa |
| By: | Erkan Erdil (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University); M. Teoman Pamukçu (TEKPOL, Science and Technology Policy Studies, Middle East Technical University); Dilek Çetin (Department of Economics, Kırıkkale University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between economic performance and innovation in Turkey, while also taking into account the crucial mediating effect of the institutional environment. We carry out an in-depth analysis of the recent shifts in STI policy making in Turkey. The emphasis is on the innovation support policy instruments, and their effectiveness, as well as on the formulation of national STI targets, sector priorities and targets in the field of human resources. A number of concerns are expressed for the effectiveness of policy instruments and for the attainability of national STI targets. In the second part using firm-level data from an innovation survey pertaining to 2008-2010, an econometric exercise is conducted in order to test for the effectiveness of innovation support in Turkey. Innovation support is treated alternatively as an exogenous and endogenous variable. Findings indicate a positive impact innovation support in general. Innovation support granted by local authorities is not effective while EU-funded projects lead to innovation although they constitute an extremely low share of total innovation supports. |
| Keywords: | Institutional Environment, Science, Technology, Innovation, Economic Performance, CDM Model, Turkey |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:stpswp:1303&r=cwa |
| By: | Aytekin Guven (Department of Economics, Abant İzzet Baysal University); Basak Dalgic (Department of Public Finance, Hacettepe University); Aysit Tansel (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) Bonn, Germany and Economic Research Forum (ERF) Cairo, Egypt) |
| Abstract: | Increasing income inequality has made economists focus on income mobility issue which enables individuals to relocate their income position up to higher income groups. Income mobility and its effects on inequalities have begun to be investigated following 2000s and rather for developed countries while there are only a limited number of studies to reach a general conclusion regarding the issue. This study aims to contribute to the literature by analyzing income inequality and income mobility together for a developing country Turkey which is one of the countries having most unequal income distributions. The results of this study can be summarized as follows; i) income mobility increases over time but this mobility raises income inequality instead of reducing it. ii) the individuals at the two tails of the distribution are more mobile with respect to the ones in the middle. iii) 30 percent of the individuals at the lowest income group become unemployed while only 1.5 percent of them move up to the highest income group in the considering sub-periods. |
| Keywords: | Income Mobility, Income Inequality, Turkey. |
| JEL: | D31 D63 J60 |
| Date: | 2014–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1415&r=cwa |
| By: | Özdemir, Durmuş; Rosch, Angi |
| Abstract: | Annual population growth rate in Turkey is as high as 1.1 per cent, while many EU countries have shrinking, and hence ageing, populations. In this paper we consider an age-structured population that consists of female natives and Turkish immigrants into the EU. Immigrants’ fertility and mortality schedule may differ from that of EU natives, their children may adopt it. We apply a discrete-time Leslie-type model which allows for immigration and the study of its long-run effects. We examine the contribution of EU natives and Turkish immigrants to the EU population in terms of age-specific reproductive values which measure the value of one female of a given age as a seed for future population growth. Genealogies are derived in terms of the realisations of a corresponding Markov chain running backward in time. |
| Keywords: | Turkey and the EU; ageing populations; immigration; stochastic demography; stable populations; discrete-time Leslie-type model; age-specific reproductive values; Markov chain; genealogy |
| JEL: | J11 J15 |
| Date: | 2005–05–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:55848&r=cwa |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Each year SIGMA produces assessment reports as a contribution to the EC’s annual reports on EU candidate countries and potential candidates, as well as to its programming of technical assistance. These reports assess progress made in public administration reform by our beneficiary countries. The report for Turkey analyses and takes stock of progress achieved by this country in 2012, with an aim to also provide inputs into its reform agenda. It focuses on civil service and administrative law, integrity, public expenditure management and control, and public procurement. |
| Date: | 2012–10–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:govaaf:2012/1-en&r=cwa |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); (Regional and Sustainable Development Department, ADB); In-Ho Keum; |
| Abstract: | Climate change will increase the frequency of extreme weather events, making more geographic places inhospitable to human habitation and secure livelihoods. This report presents a detailed picture of the potential impacts of climate change on migration in Asia and the Pacific. It draws upon a wealth of research to provide policy makers with informed analysis of an emerging phenomenon requiring urgent attention by governments and the international community. The report also suggests that climate-induced migration should be seen not only as a threat to human well-being but also as a potential tool to promote human adaptation to climate change. |
| Keywords: | adb, asian development bank, asdb, asia, pacific, poverty asia, water, water supply, sanitation, water supply and sanitation, water resources, water sector |
| Date: | 2011–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:bkk114083&r=cwa |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Abstract: | KEY ISSUES Context Economic activity accelerated in 2013 as oil output stabilized while non-oil growth continued at close to 10 percent. Inflation remained low and the external position strengthened further. President Aliyev won a third term in the October election. Favorable economic prospects and large buffers provide an opportune environment to speed up reforms. Focus of consultation and recommendations In an environment of high oil prices but with a relatively short oil production horizon, the overarching challenge for Azerbaijan remains bringing fiscal policy to a sustainable position while accelerating structural reforms to foster broad-based private sector-led growth. Staff recommends: • Pursuing a growth-friendly fiscal consolidation strategy by cutting investment projects with small growth returns and advancing decisive reforms to improve the business environment and thereby create opportunities for private investment; • Maintaining monetary policy in a neutral stance while improving the transmission mechanism and taking steps to enable greater exchange rate flexibility in the medium term; and • Fostering private sector–led growth in the non-oil sector by ensuring financial stability, promoting the deepening of financial markets, strengthening governance, and removing barriers to competition and trade. Previous Consultation During the 2013 Article IV Consultation, Directors encouraged the authorities to: (i) undertake a moderate front-loaded fiscal consolidation based on a rules-based fiscal framework; (ii) discontinue the Central Bank’s direct lending to the real economy; (iii) strengthen the supervisory framework and adopt prudential measures to contain the growth of consumer credit; and (iv) advance ambitious structural reforms to reduce barriers to trade and competition. Since then, the authorities have signaled a change in the course of economic policies by approving a budget for 2014 that contains government spending, unwinding part of the central bank’s directed lending to the real sector, and adopting measures to rein in consumer credit. The pace of reforms aimed at strengthening the fiscal framework and improving governance and the business climate remains slow. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultation reports;Economic growth;Fiscal policy;Nonoil sector;Private sector;Fiscal consolidation;Fiscal reforms;Banking sector;Monetary policy;Economic indicators;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Azerbaijan; |
| Date: | 2014–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:14/159&r=cwa |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Abstract: | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Political context. On April 3, 2014, parliament approved a new government, led by Mr. Otorbaev, the new Prime Minister. The ministers of economy and finances kept their positions. Moreover, on May 7, 2014, a new chairperson was appointed for the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR). No major changes in economic policies are expected. In February 2014, parliament approved a new deal with Centerra, ending a two-year dispute over the Kumtor gold mine. Background. In the first quarter, growth moderated to 5.6 percent (year-on-year) after the 2013 growth spike at 10.5 percent related to an unexpectedly high level of gold production. In the same period, inflation picked up slightly, owing to depreciation of the som in response to pressures from the depreciation of the Russian ruble and the devaluation of the Kazakh tenge. The NBKR intervened heavily to mitigate these pressures, but has recently rebuilt reserves to ensure a more comfortable level of over three months of imports. The current account is expected to deteriorate this year because of higher imports related to large public investments and FDI-financed infrastructure projects. Fiscal performance in 2013 was better than expected, with a deficit of 4 percent of GDP, but revenue headwinds call for a cautious budget in 2014. The medium-term outlook remains broadly favorable, provided prudent macroeconomic policies continue and are supported with structural reforms, including tax policy and administration reforms, public financial management (PFM) reforms, and implementation of FSAP recommendations, in particular the Banking Code. Program. The program is broadly on track, with all end-December 2013 quantitative performance criteria and all but one indicative targets (IT) met for end-December 2013. Although three March 2014 ITs were missed, since then there has been progress in rebuilding reserves and enhancing tax collections. The two structural benchmarks (SBs) for end-December were met, and the SB on signing the contract with one of the big four audit companies to audit the Debt Resolution Agency (DEBRA) is expected to be completed with delay. The remaining SB on introducing the Treasury Single Account (TSA) on a pilot basis was missed. Overall, the Kyrgyz authorities are completing a broadly successful three-year ECF arrangement, although further reforms will be needed to preserve and deepen the accomplishments. Despite occasional domestic political turmoil, the authorities have regained and maintained macroeconomic stability, consolidated the fiscal position, implemented a new monetary framework, and embarked on a comprehensive banking sector reform. The authorities have not yet expressed their intentions regarding a successor program. |
| Keywords: | Extended Credit Facility;Economic growth;Fiscal policy;Fiscal consolidation;Fiscal reforms;Monetary policy;Economic indicators;Staff Reports;Letters of Intent;Press releases;Kyrgyz Republic; |
| Date: | 2014–07–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:14/200&r=cwa |
| By: | Kyle, Steven |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Production Economics, |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cudawp:180170&r=cwa |