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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | KARGI, Bilal |
| Abstract: | In this study, income and consumption expenditures, which are the reflections of the economic growth’s supply and demand facades, are analyzed. There are six basic hypothesis, which try to explain how consumer spending affected from consumers' income levels and of these the most common is Friedman's "Permanent Income Hypothesis". In this study, evidence for this hypothesis is being sought from Turkey's economy data. As a result of the time-series analysis of quarterly data for the period 2004:01-2012:03, consumers, consumption expenditures are not only affected by current income but also influenced by the expectations of the next period. Indeed, expectations are calculated as the Granger cause of consumer spending. This finding is cited as evidence for Friedman's Permanent Income Hypothesis for Turkey's economy. |
| Keywords: | Permanent Income Hypothesis, Growth, Turkey Economy, Consumption Expenditures, Time Series Analysis |
| JEL: | I31 O11 O40 |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:55696&r=cwa |
| By: | KARGI, Bilal |
| Abstract: | Energy and especially electricity consumption is a variable that can be also considered as the indication of the social development as far as economic growth is concerned. Energy, as the input of the industry and other production branches, is an indication for the production increase; and also for consumption with regards to raising the living standards of the consumers. In literature with its situation, it is argued that the electricity consumption is included the mutual causality relation with the growth data in a long-term. As there are several empirical studies that support this hypothesis, in some economies, especially it may sometimes be concluded that the data of the energy utilization in the production area can negatively affect growth in the long-term. Therefore, the literature does not come to the agreed results for the relation between these two variables. In this study, the causality relations have been analyzed by dividing the electricity consumption into three categories; residential, industrial and others, based on the data of the Turkish economy. In the lights of the obtained findings, it is concluded that in long term, there is at most one long-term co-integrating vector between GDP and electricity consumed in residential and industrial areas and also two-way causality relation between GDP and electricity consumed in these sectors. In this case, electricity consumption can be considered as an indicator for both growth and social development. |
| Keywords: | economic growth, electricity consumption, industrial consumption, residential consumption |
| JEL: | C22 O40 Q43 |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:55699&r=cwa |
| By: | Ariel BenYishay (School of Economics, Australian School of Business, the University of New South Wales); Pauline Grosjean (School of Economics, Australian School of Business, the University of New South Wales) |
| Abstract: | This study explores how initial endowments at the start of transition have shaped reform outcomes and reform trajectories in 27 former communist countries in Europe andCentral Asia. Countries of the former Russian Empire that had a large resources sector at the start of transition underperformed other countries in terms of the speed and the depth of economic reforms. The effect is particularly strong for privatization, enterprise restructuring and competition policy. Within country, Ottoman or Russian provinces that had a large natural resources sector in 1989 have a lower share of entrepreneurs and of small and medium sized enterprises today and also experience endemic corruption. Our results indicate that the propensity, or ability, of special interest groups to capture the reform process that would erode their rents were facilitated by the quality of institutions whose foundations go back centuries; and that the effects on the local economy are real. |
| Keywords: | corruption, initial endowments, natural resources, persistence, transition |
| JEL: | H11 O57 P26 |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:swe:wpaper:2014-22&r=cwa |
| By: | Ogundipe, Adeyemi; Akinyemi, Opeyemi; Ogundipe, Oluwatomisin |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the implications of foreign land deals in Africa especially with regard to agricultural trade. It is motivated essentially by large scale foreign deals of land in Africa, Latin America, Central Asia and Southeast Asia that have been reported in recent years. One of the driving forces has been attributed to the presumed availability of land in these regions. This study employs data sourced from World Development Indicators and World Governance Indicators on key variables such as arable land per person, agricultural land as percentage of land area, net food import, regulatory quality, among others (1995-2010) on selected African countries where instances of foreign land deals have been reported. The study formulates empirical models that draw from institutional development theory, which is estimated using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). The study found LSFLDs to impact negatively on agricultural export in selected countries, the indexes of institutional framework used were found to be significant; likewise, agricultural land becomes highly significant with relative larger magnitude when interacted with institutional indexes. This therefore implies that as more agricultural land is acquired, agricultural export tends to dwindle and incidences of food insecurity are heightened. The preliminary investigation suggests the need for controlling the issue of massive foreign land deals through viable institutional framework, which can be engendered by building sound legal and procedural measures that will protect local rights and take into account the aspirations of local farmers and the welfare of citizenry. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural exports, Food security; Institutional quality; Land deals |
| JEL: | F21 Q15 Q18 R52 |
| Date: | 2013–12–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:56075&r=cwa |
| By: | KARGI, Bilal |
| Abstract: | In this study, the analysis was that the capacity of creating inflation depends on oil prices as the one of energy types that is a major input of aggregate output which becomes a source of economic growth with increasing in costs. The aggregate output is also a function of energy that is the one of production inputs. Moreover, energy is an imported by several countries because it is acquired from the limited sources around the world. It causes inflation of importing countries to exporting countries through oil prices. At the same time, the rises of oil prices causes inflation because it increases the product costs. The second argument is that the increasing of aggregate output is generally affected by energy use, and is privately affected by oil use. In that case, oil import is both efficient on inflation and on growth. Tested hypothesis in the study is that oil prices have an inflationary effect because of its effect on costs, and is that this activity will negatively affect the growth because of its effect on expectations. In this study, the effects of the crude oil import of Turkey for inflation and growth are analysed over the long term. The committed analyses show that GDP was affected by oil imports, and it also caused inflation in the Turkish economy. |
| Keywords: | Oil Import, Inflation, Economic Growth |
| JEL: | C32 E31 Q43 |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:55704&r=cwa |
| By: | Verónica Frisancho; Kala Krishna; Sergey Lychagin; Cemile Yavas |
| Abstract: | This paper provides some evidence that repeat taking of competitive exams may reduce the impact of background disadvantages on educational outcomes. Using administrative data on the university entrance exam in Turkey, the paper estimates cumulative learning between the first and the nth attempt while controlling for selection into retaking in terms of observed and unobserved characteristics. Large learning gains measured in terms of improvements in the exam scores are found, especially among less advantaged students. |
| Keywords: | Learning, Educational tests, Higher Education |
| Date: | 2014–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:83875&r=cwa |
| By: | KARGI, Bilal |
| Abstract: | This work is about the compatibility of the given credit rates to Turkey by the USA originated credit rating companies and the data of the Turkish economy. When their own resources are not enough to finance economical growth, countries are needed for foreign investments. These foreign investments are wanted by countries as direct foreign investments or financial investments. Both kinds want to have a trust on these types of economies to invest on them. For this reason, it is needed to have a indicator for safety of a country to invest. Most important indicator developed for this purpose is credit rate. First of all, the "Credit Rating" concept is examined and the purpose and quality of these international establishments are examined. Then, the credit rating criteria of the USA originated S&P Fitch and Moody’s establishments are examined. The relation of these criteria and certain basic data (GDP, Current Account Balance, Foreign Borrowing and, Inflation) of Turkish economy is discussed. Depending on these data, it seems that S&P is the agency following Turkey the closest. In the order, the other are Fitch and Moody’s. But while the most optimist ratings are Moody’s, S&P ratings are the most fluctuated ones. In this case, it can be assumed that a possible decrease in rating in 2014 may come from S&P. |
| Keywords: | Credit Rating Agencies, Turkey Economy, Economic Growth. |
| JEL: | G24 O40 O52 |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:55698&r=cwa |
| By: | Binnur Balkan; Yusuf Soner Baskaya; Semih Tumen |
| Abstract: | The Turkish government started an employment subsidy program in 2008 to generate new employment for younger men and all women, which are the relatively disadvantaged groups in the Turkish labor market. In this paper, we use a nationally representative micro-level dataset and a difference-in-differences approach to evaluate the effects of this subsidy program. Our results indicate that, on aggregate, the subsidy program seems to be ineffective in increasing the employment probabilities of those individuals in the target group. However, when heterogeneity is accounted for by dividing the treatment group into several sub-groups, we observe that the program has been notably effective on some of those sub-groups. In particular, we find that the increase in employment probability is more pronounced for older women, while a weaker positive effect is observed for younger women and almost no effect is detected for younger men. The effect on older women is subject to further heterogeneity : the subsidy program has increased the employment probabilities of low-educated and/or low-skill older women rather than the high-educated and/or high-skill ones. |
| Keywords: | Employment subsidies; treatment effects; difference-in-differences; Turkish micro data. |
| JEL: | C21 H24 J21 J68 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1414&r=cwa |
| By: | Selen Baser Andic |
| Abstract: | [TR] Cekirdek enflasyon gostergeleri genellikle tuketici fiyatlarindaki degisimin ana egilimini gormek icin olusturulmaktadir. Bu calismada, uc basamakli yurt ici uretici fiyat endeksi (YI-UFE) imalat grubu alt kalemlerinin aylik enflasyonlarinin oynakligina ve dagilimlarina göre dislamasiyla Turkiye icin on bir adet YI-UFE cekirdek enflasyon gostergesi elde edilmistir. Gostergeler yansizlik, ana egilim takibi, oynaklik, tahmin gucu ve anlasilir olma kriterlerine gore karsilastirilmistir. Sonuclar tum kriterler esas alindiginda tek bir en iyi gosterge olmadigini, dolayisiyla uretici fiyatlarindaki degisimin ana egilimini anlamak icin birden fazla gostergenin bir arada takip edilmesi gerektigini isaret etmektedir. Bu gostergeler, ortalama aylik enflasyona 1,5 standart sapmadan daha uzak aylik enflasyona sahip kalemlerin budandigi V_1,5 ile ana metal ve petrol haric imalattir. [EN] In general, core inflation measures are designed to identify the underlying trend in inflation in consumer prices. In this study, via exclusion of three-digit sub-indices of the manufacturing group according to volatility and dispersion in their monthly inflation rates, eleven core inflation indicators for domestic producer price index for Turkey are constructed. These measures are then evaluated with respect to unbiasedness, trend tracking, volatility, predictive power and complexity criteria. Results reveal that taking into account all the criteria there is no single best indicator, therefore more than one indicator should be monitored together. These measures are found as manufacturing excluding basic metals and petroleum and V_1.5, which is calculated by trimming indices with monthly inflations that are 1.5 standard deviation away from the average monthly inflation. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1406&r=cwa |
| By: | KARGI, Bilal |
| Abstract: | This article remark that the activities of the international capital flows and the foreign direct investment increase on the growth process of countries. The economies attach more importance to these two factors in each passing day. On the other hand, the exposure degrees of host countries increase through the fluctuations. Especially, markets can fluctuate on a short notice because of the high speed of the capital movements. Therefore, countries mostly prefer to host the foreign direct investments. Thus, it is thought that countries can gain stability in a long term. However, this time, the damaging natural environment becomes a currect issue with the labor force and natural sources that may be adapted to the technology transfered by direct foreign capital. This study empirically resarched the actions of the foreign direct investments and portfolio investments on the growth that is theoretically presented for the finance of growth. The long term relation is researched by using the annual data of 1980-2012 in the Turkish economy. Especially, the structural breakage analysis is applied to can put forward the effects of the crisis in 1994, 2001 and 2008. The most distinct finding according to the structural breakage tests cannot be confirmed in relation between the foreign investments and growth in the Turkish economy. In addition, it has been concluded that there is a long term relation between growth and foreign capital investments (the direct and portfolio). |
| Keywords: | Foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, economic growth |
| JEL: | F21 F43 F44 O11 O40 |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:56086&r=cwa |
| By: | Fabio Donato; Anahita Lohrasbi |
| Abstract: | This paper is aimed at studying the potentials of cultural heritage in the discourse of development in rural cultural landscapes. It studies the attributes of the integrated cultural landscape management in order to maintain sustainability of the cultural landscape as a holistic system of entangled cultural and natural elements. This management approach is investigated through participative activities as well as considering cultural heritage as a resource for local sustainable development in all dimensions. While going through chronological review of policy documents in the area of sustainable development and cultural integration, academic literature review was made to come up with defining the interfaces of valorization of cultural heritage and the dimensions of sustainable development. The relevant challenges regarding the rural cultural landscapes were studied through a questionnaire survey in the case of a World Heritage Site in Iran, namely Throne of Solomon (Takht-e Soleyman). The findings of the empirical research show that the area is suffering from the lack of symmetrical exploitation of the resources not adequately resulting in economic development, environmental protection and social cohesion. On the other hand, at local level there is a positive trend for the participative activities for valorization of cultural heritage as a potential resource for development which acknowledges global recognition of culture as the forth pillar of sustainable development. |
| Keywords: | Cultural landscape management; sustainable development; cultural heritage; participation; valorization |
| JEL: | Z10 |
| Date: | 2014–05–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udf:wpaper:2014073&r=cwa |