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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Ilhom Abdulloev (Open Society Institute Assistance Foundation, Tajikistan and IZA); Gil S. Epstein (Bar-Ilan University, CReAM, IZA and Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano); Ira N. Gang (Rutgers University, CReAM, IOS and IZA) |
| Abstract: | Some immigrants try to keep their ethnicity hidden while others become ever deeply more mired in their home culture. We argue that among immigrants this struggle manifests itself in the ethnic goods they choose to consume. Different types of ethnic goods have vastly different effects on immigrant assimilation. We develop a simple theoretical model useful for capturing the consequences of this struggle, illustrating it with examples of Central Asian assimilation into the Muscovite economy. |
| Keywords: | Assimilation, migrants, culture, ethnic goods |
| JEL: | J15 |
| Date: | 2014–04–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csl:devewp:364&r=cwa |
| By: | Alexander A. Yalbulganov (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The creation of the EurAsEC Customs Union and Russia’s ascension into the WTO has led to a radical change in Russia’s anti-dumping legislation. Anti-dumping regulation ceased to fall under national jurisdiction and was transferred to the Eurasian Economic Commission, a supranational regulator. This article analyzes the new anti-dumping legislation of the EurAsEC Customs Union, anti-dumping procedures, their principles, participants, and main stages, as well as the legal treatment of information used in the anti-dumping regulation. |
| Keywords: | EurAsEC, customs union, anti-dumping measures, anti-dumping duty |
| JEL: | F15 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:35/law/2014&r=cwa |
| By: | Azevedo, Joao Pedro; Atamanov, Aziz |
| Abstract: | Turkey's poverty reduction performance in the 2000s has been remarkably consistent. Extreme and moderate poverty have fallen considerably since 2003. Between 2002 and 2011, extreme poverty fell from 13 percent to 5 percent, while moderate poverty halved from 44 percent to 22 percent (respectively, defined using the World Bank's Europe and Central Asia regional poverty lines of 2.5 and 5 USD/PPP). Most of this poverty reduction (89 percent) has been driven by growth, a performance consistent with most countries in Europe and Central Asia. This is substantially different form the recent performance of other regions, such as Latin America, where redistribution contributed to poverty reduction almost four times more than in Turkey. Turkey has also achieved sustained consumption growth of the bottom 40 percent of the population, even during the years of the world recession. Turkey's performance in poverty reduction and increased shared prosperity has been complemented by the systematic expansion of the middle class by 20 percentage points. This paper analyzes the main drivers of poverty reduction, shared prosperity, and changes in inequality in Turkey from 2002 to 2011. The analysis shows that labor markets, demographics, pensions, and social assistance have played a critical role in this process. It further explores some of the mechanisms that have facilitated these changes. |
| Keywords: | Rural Poverty Reduction,Regional Economic Development,Inequality,Achieving Shared Growth |
| Date: | 2014–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6834&r=cwa |
| By: | Aliyev, Khatai |
| Abstract: | World Trade Organization (WTO) is the largest trade organization which is supposed to open the international trade for the benefit of all countries through liberalization or removing impediments over trade. It may directly impact import and export and indirectly other macroeconomic variables. In this context, Azerbaijan’s accession process to WTO has been subject to many discussions in terms of what impacts are expected for the economy in case of the accession. This thesis attempts to do an empirical analysis of the expected macroeconomic impacts of the membership on Azerbaijan economy through application of VAR model. In this thesis, central question is what overall macroeconomic impact is expected for Azerbaijan’s economy if Azerbaijan join to WTO. In this context, I hypothesize that macroeconomic impact of the membership over Azerbaijan economy is expected to be negative. To test my hypothesis, I benefit from the membership experience of Georgia and Armenia and use VAR model to estimate time series data for Georgia and Armenia individually, and panel data consisted of Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan’s time series data. After all, I conclude that WTO membership increases import much more than export. However, the research fails to find enough evidence to say that overall impact of WTO membership is statistically significant. After taking Azerbaijan’s economic characteristics into consideration, the research concludes that overall macroeconomic impact of WTO membership is expected to be negative for Azerbaijan. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, WTO membership, Macroeconomic impacts, VAR model |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F55 |
| Date: | 2014–02–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:55096&r=cwa |
| By: | Aslihan Atabek Demirhan |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calismanin amaci, Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi (TCMB) ile Ekonomik Kalkinma ve Isbirligi Orgutu (OECD) ortak calismasi sonucunda olusturulan ve 2002 tarihinden bu yana aylik olarak yayinlanan bilesik oncu gostergeler endeksi (MBONCU-SUE) yonteminde yapilan degisiklikler hakkinda bilgi vermektir. OECD devresel analizler ve oncu gostergeler sistemi cerçevesinde uyguladigi yontemde bazi degisiklikler yapilmistir. Bu degisikliklere uyumlu olacak sekilde, mevcut oncu gostergeler kullanilarak yeni yontem ile MBONCU-SUE hesaplanmistir. Elde edilen yeni MBONCU-SUE’nin beklenildigi uzere daha duzgun bir patika izledigi ve bu nedenle de karar alicilar acisindan daha tutarli ve etkin bilgi sagladigi gorulmustur. [EN] The aim of this study is to inform about recent methodological changes that occurred in the construction of composite leading indicator for Turkish economy activity (MBONCU-SUE). Since 2002, on a monthly basis, MBONCU-SUE has been published as a result of cooperation between Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) and Organisation of Economic Developments (OECD). OECD’s cyclical analysis and leading indicators system has been gone under several technical changes. Parallel to those changes, with the current leading indicators, MBÖNCÜ-SÜE is constructed via new methodology. The obtained new MBÖNCÜ-SUE displays smoother pattern as expected which provides more robust and efficient information to the policy makers. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1404&r=cwa |
| By: | Kim, Byung Yeon; Shida, Yoshisada |
| Abstract: | We measure the informal economy and shortages of consumer goods in the Soviet republics from 1965 to 1989 to estimate the relationships of these two variables. We use fixed-effect model and instrument variable approach and find that the informal economy and shortages reinforce each other. Results indicate that the Soviet central planning system is difficult to sustain in the long run. A substantial heterogeneity across the Soviet republics exists not only in the extent of the informal economy and shortages, but also in the associations of the two variables. |
| Keywords: | shortages, informal economy, Soviet republics |
| JEL: | P21 P27 P36 |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:rrcwps:43&r=cwa |
| By: | Bagayev, Igor; Najman, Boris |
| Abstract: | In this paper we provide original findings on the impact of local financial development (LFD) on manufacturing firms' energy intensity in European and Central Asian (ECA) post communist countries. We implement the two-step method of Guiso et al. (2004) in order to build a lagged measure of financial development at the local level. The paper is the first to use this methodology to assess local financial development in the ECA region and to test its effect on firm-level energy demand. According to related literature, our findings also show that firm size matters. But we also provide a new insight about the non-linear effect of financial development depending on the scope of the financial market. We show that while energy consumption of small businesses is more affected by local financial markets, large firms are more sensitive to countrywide financial in-depth. Overall, this paper provides econometric evidence for a financial access explanation of the "energy efficiency gap". Improving financing opportunities should increase firms’ energy efficiency. Moreover, focus on local conditions and small firms should be an important feature of active energy-saving financial policies. |
| Keywords: | Energy Intensity, Local Financial Development, Firm Size, ECA Region |
| JEL: | D22 P28 Q4 |
| Date: | 2014–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:55193&r=cwa |
| By: | Petrick, Martin; Gramzow, Andreas; Oshakbaev, Dauren; Wandel, Jürgen |
| Abstract: | Kazakhstan is now widely regarded as a key player on world agricultural markets, with considerable export potential in the wheat, beef and dairy sectors. Based on unique farm-level data, we offer new insights into the constraints that hamper further economic growth and provide an assessment of the Kazakhstani government's agricultural development strategy. Most managers in the farm survey doubt that agricultural investments deliver a sufficiently reliable return required for credit funding and thus do not take loans. In the cattle sector, there are significant problems in year-round fodder supply. The value chains for beef and dairy are bifurcated into an import-dependent chain for industrially processed products serving urban consumers, and a local chain of raw products serving rural consumers and urban bazaars. The government's modernisation strategy focuses on providing subsidised capital, but underestimates the knowledge and incentive problems inherent to such measures. The government should rather provide impartial and reliable public services to the sector, ensuring that the weakest links in food chain development are identified and private entrepreneurs are incentivised to strengthen them. Our evidence suggests that a bundle of measures designed to improve the local institutional environment of agriculture is more important than massive state funding of certain production lines. -- |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iamopb:15&r=cwa |
| By: | Nader Habibi (International Business School, Brandeis University) |
| Abstract: | Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won the 2005 presidential election promising economic justice and fairness. Throughout his eight-year presidency, he paid more attention to economic fairness and redistribution of wealth than had previous presidents, and he adopted several populist financial and fiscal policies intended to fulfill his promise. These policies did reduce income inequality, but they also resulted in a loss of fiscal and monetary discipline. Yet, Ahmadinejad, a self-assured politician, often dismissed the warnings of both his critics and his supporters about the consequences of his economic policies. Ahmadinejad brought many commanders of the Revolutionary Guards and Basij militia into his cabinet and facilitated the sale of a large number of privatized firms to these institutions and their economic units. As a result, the Revolutionary Guards are now actively involved in all types of economic and financial activities in Iran. Initially, Ahmadinejad was skeptical of the market-oriented economic reforms of previous presidents, but he gradually changed his mind and continued many of them. His most important achievement in this regard was the reform of energy and fuel subsidies. With the active support of the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guards, Ahmadinejad implemented the price subsidies reform in December 2010. Despite record high oil revenues, however, Iran’s economic growth during Ahmadinejad’s presidency was no better than in the Khatami or Rafsanjani eras. |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:brd:wpaper:69&r=cwa |
| By: | Simone Tagliapietra, (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei) |
| Abstract: | Iran is the perennial “elephant in the room” of international gas trade. The country could well become, one day, a major game changer of international gas markets but today its potential still remains fundamentally untapped due to a number of geopolitical and commercial reasons. Iran owns the first largest proven gas reserves in the world, but since 1997 it is basically a net-importer of gas. This paradoxical situation is due to a number of internal and external factors, which will be widely discussed in the paper. However, the main cause of the current under-exploitation of Iran’s gas resources is certainly linked to the international isolation of the country due to the well-known international dispute over its nuclear program. For this reason, if the positive outcome of the recent nuclear talks turn into a complete nuclear deal, great opportunities will likely open up in Iran also with regard to the gas market. The aim of this paper is to analyze the country’s gas outlook in the aftermath of a potential nuclear deal, looking at the potential production trends, at the potential export options, but also at the political and commercial barriers that such a development will likely have to face. In fact, a full resolution of the nuclear issue will unlikely automatically change the Iranian gas market in the short term, as a number of commercial issues will continue to remain on the table. In other words, the “elephant” will need a bit of time to move. However, it is sure that its movement will ultimately have a profound and long-lasting impact on international gas markets. |
| Keywords: | Iran Gas Market, International Gas Markets, World Energy Outlook, Nuclear Talks |
| JEL: | Q40 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2014.31&r=cwa |
| By: | Glauben, Thomas; Belyaeva, Maria; Bobojonov, Ihtiyor; Djuric, Ivan; Götz, Linde; Hockmann, Heinrich; Müller, Daniel; Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr; Petrick, Martin; Prehn, Sören; Prishchepov, Alexander; Renner, Swetlana; Schierhorn, Florian |
| Abstract: | Der Kornkammer des Ostens, namentlich Russland, der Ukraine und Kasachstan, wird aufgrund riesiger Flächen- und Ertragspotenziale eine zunehmende Bedeutung für die Weltgetreidemärkte zugesprochen. Allerdings blockieren widersinnige Markt- und Handelspolitiken, anhaltende betriebliche Produktivitätslücken sowie Defizite in der Vermarktungsinfrastruktur nachhaltig die Realisierung von Produktions- und Marktpotenzialen. Voraussetzung für deren Realisierung wären eine Priorisierung marktkonformer und exportorientierter Politiken sowie massive Investitionen in die räumliche und betriebliche Infrastruktur. Des Weiteren wäre aktuell natürlich auch eine zügige Bewältigung der Krim-Krise erforderlich. -- |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iamopb:16&r=cwa |
| By: | Mohammad Reza Farzanegan (University of Marburg); Mozhgan Raeisian Parvari (University of Vienna) |
| Abstract: | One of the main elements of economic sanctions against Iran due to its nuclear and military programs is crude oil exportation restrictions in addition to investment in Iranian energy related projects. Senders of such sanction are interested in understanding the impacts of such embargos on international oil prices. We apply unrestricted Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, using impulse response (IRF) and variance decomposition (VDA) tools with annual data from 1965 to 2012 to analyze the dynamic response of international oil prices to Iranian oil export sanction. Controlling for the supply of non-Iranian oil and the world GDP per capita, we show that international oil prices respond positively to negative changes of the Iranian oil expor, our proxy of Iran oil sanctions. However, the increasing response of oil prices to the Iranian oil sanction is only significant in the first year after negative shock in Iran oil exports. Beyond the first year following shock, we do not observe a statistically significant response of oil prices. |
| Keywords: | Oil Price, VAR Model, Sanction, Iran Handle: RePEc:mar:MAGKSE:201427 |
| JEL: | E37 Q32 Q34 Q38 Q43 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:201427&r=cwa |
| By: | M. Haluk Guler; Gursu Keles; Erkan Kilimci |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu notla, bankacilik sistemi Turk Lirasi (TL) fonlama ihtiyaci ana kalemlerindeki gelismelerin, TL tuketici ve ticari kredi degisimlerine ne sekilde etki ettigi degerlendirilmektedir. Bulgular, sistemin fonlama ihtiyacinda TL zorunlu karsilik tutari disinda gerceklesen artislarin TL tuketici kredilerini azaltirken TL ticari kredileri degistirmeyerek kredi kompozisyonunu etkileyebilecegine isaret etmektedir. [EN] In this note, we analyze how changes in the essential components of the banking system’s liquidity need affect Turkish Lira denominated consumer and commercial loans. Our findings indicate that an increase in the banking system’s liquidity need, in excess of reserve requirements, may affect the composition of the total loans by leading to a decrease in consumer loans while keeping commercial loans intact. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1403&r=cwa |
| By: | Olcay Yucel Culha; M. Koray Kalafatcilar |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu notta Turkiye’de mal ihracatini belirleyen temel unsurlarin, ihracat pazarlari arasinda ne olcude farklilastigi arastirilmistir. Bu amacla, 2003-2013 donemini kapsayan VAR analizi kullanilarak ihracat talep fonksiyonundaki esneklik katsayilari hesaplanmistir. Ihracatin gelir esnekligi gelismis ulkelerde, ozellikle de Euro Bolgesi’nde, belirgin olarak daha yuksek bulunmustur. Doviz kuru esnekligi ise Orta Dogu ve Afrika bolgesinde hem mutlak deger olarak daha yuksek bulunmus, hem de diger bolgelerin aksine istatistiki olarak anlamli oldugu saptanmistir. Bu bulgular, ihracatin belirleyici faktorleri arasinda, gerçeklestirilen mal ihracatinin kompozisyonundaki farkli yapiya paralel olarak, bolgesel farkliliklar oldugunu teyit etmektedir. [EN] In this note we have investigated to what extent the determinants of Turkish exports differentiate across export destinations. To this end, elasticity coefficients of export demand function are estimated by employing the VAR method for the 2003-2013 period. The estimated values for demand elasticity of exports are considerably higher in advanced countries, particularly in the Eurozone. We have found that the real exchange rate elasticity of exports in the Middle East and Africa region is not only higher in absolute terms but also statistically significant, contrary to other regions. These findings confirm that there are regional variations in the determinants of exports across destinations in accordance with the difference in the composition of export goods. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1405&r=cwa |
| By: | Julia Hauberer (University of Hamburg - School of Business Administration); Alexander Tatarko (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This article deals with the influence of cultural background on the sources of social capital. We analyse four different culture groups – Czechs and Russians representing post-modernized cultures and Dagestanis and Chechens representing traditional cultures. Applying univariate comparisons and Structural Equation Modelling, our results indicate a clear difference between post-modern and traditional cultures. Postmodernity seems to come along with less family network density and greater formal network size; however, also with higher family social capital access than traditionalism. No clear distinction can be drawn regarding size of friendship network and social capital accessed by the friendship network. |
| Keywords: | individual social capital, social networks, culture, modernization, tradition, resource generator |
| JEL: | D85 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:38/soc/2014&r=cwa |