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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Ali T. Akarca (University of Illinois at Chicago); Aysýt Tansel (Middle East Technical University) |
| Abstract: | During last sixty years, Turkish population moved from one province to another at the rate of about 7-8 percent per five-year interval. As a consequence of this massive internal migration, population residing in a province other than the one they were born in increased from 12 percent in 1950 to 39 percent in 2011. Impact of this population instability on provincial turnout rates in 2011 parliamentary election is studied, controlling for the effects of other socio-economic, demographic, political and institutional factors. Consequences of migration both at destinations and origins are considered. According to robust regressions estimated, the relationship between turnout and education is inverse U-shaped, and between turnout and age, U-shaped. The latter reflects generational differences as well. Large population, large number parliament members to be elected from a constituency, participation by large number of parties, and existence of a dominant party depress the turnout rate. A percentage increase in the proportion of emigrants among the people born in a province reduces turnout rate in that province by 0.13 percentage points, while a percentage increase in the ratio of immigrants in the population of a province reduces it by 0.06 percentage points. However, at destinations where large numbers of immigrants from different regions are concentrated, the opportunity afforded to immigrants to elect one of their own, reduces the latter adverse impact significantly and in some cases turns it to positive. |
| Keywords: | Election turnout, internal migration, political participation, Turkey, voter behavior. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tek:wpaper:2014/4&r=cwa |
| By: | Kemal Türkcan (Akdeniz University) |
| Abstract: | Purpose: Recent empirical research in international trade emphasizes the role of the extensive and intensive margin to the export growth. This paper examines the sources of export growth in Turkey. For this purpose, the study decomposes Turkey’s export growth into extensive and intensive margins by using two methodologies, the count method and the decomposition method of export growth shares. The intensive margin into price and quantity components is further decomposed in order to evaluate the role of changes in price and changes in quantity. Detailed bilateral trade data, BACI, from CEPII are employed to analyze Turkey’s export statistics with 209 countries at the HS-6 level over the period 1998–2011. Additionally, these methods are employed for different categories of goods (final goods and intermediate goods exports). The results suggest that the extensive margin, particularly geographic diversification, plays the most important role in Turkey’s total goods export growth. Further, the growth in Turkey’s total goods exports is mainly explained by quantity rather than price growth. The results further point out that growth in Turkey’s final goods was driven by price growth, whereas growth in intermediate goods exports was mainly explained by quantity growth. Yet the results also suggested that product and geographic diversification of Turkey’s have not been fully realized and thus many more opportunities exist for Turkey to expand product range or expand into new markets, which in turn will bring significant benefits in the form of stable, sustainable economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, export margins |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tek:wpaper:2014/2&r=cwa |
| By: | Mehmet Burak Turgut (University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the spatial economic activity in Turkey and estimates the correlation between wages and consumer demand across NUTS1 regions of Turkey. First, I estimate simple market potential function to test whether closeness to larger markets has impact on wages. Second, I estimate Krugman (1993) economic geography model to see the agglomeration forces in Turkey. The results suggest that wages are higher in the regions close to larger markets and low trade costs and high share of expenditure on manufactured goods are the forces of agglomeration in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Regional economic activity, Turkey, economic geography model |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tek:wpaper:2014/5&r=cwa |
| By: | Hirshleifer, Sarojini (University of California, San Diego); McKenzie, David (World Bank); Almeida, Rita K. (World Bank); Ridao-Cano, Cristobal (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | We use a randomized experiment to evaluate a large-scale active labor market policy: Turkey's vocational training programs for the unemployed. A detailed follow-up survey of a large sample with low attrition enables precise estimation of treatment impacts and their heterogeneity. The average impact of training on employment is positive, but close to zero and statistically insignificant, which is much lower than either program officials or applicants expected. Over the first year after training we do find training to have had statistically significant effects on the quality of employment, and that the positive impacts are stronger when training is offered by private providers. However, longer-term administrative data shows that after three years these effects have also dissipated. |
| Keywords: | vocational training, active labor market programs, randomized experiment, private provision |
| JEL: | I28 J24 J68 O12 C93 |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8059&r=cwa |
| By: | Sumru Altug (Department of Economics, Koc University, CEPR); Cem Cakmakli (Department of Economics, Koc University, Department of Quantitative Economics, University of Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the evolution of inflation expectations for two key emerging economies, Brazil and Turkey, using a reduced form model in a state-space framework, where the level of inflation is modeled explicitly. We match the survey-based inflation expectations and inflation targets set by the central banks of Brazil and Turkey with the predictions implied by the model in a statistically coherent way. Confronting these expectations with inflation targets leads to a statistical measure of the discrepancy between inflation expectations and the target inflation. The results indicate that inflation expectations are anchored more closely the inflation target set by the Central Bank for Brazil. By contrast, there is more evidence that inflation expectations deviate significantly from the target inflation set by the Central Bank for Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Inflation targeting, survey-based inflation expectations, forecasting, state space model. |
| JEL: | E31 E37 C32 C51 |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1413&r=cwa |
| By: | Bonin, John (BOFIT); Hasan, Iftekhar (BOFIT); Wachtel , Paul (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | Modern banking institutions were virtually non-existent in the planned economies of central Europe and the former Soviet Union. In the early transition period, banking sectors began to develop during several years of macroeconomic decline and turbulence accompanied by repeated bank crises. However, governments in many transition countries learned from these tumultuous experiences and eventually dealt successfully with the accumulated bad loans and lack of strong bank regulation. In addition, rapid progress in bank privatization and consolidation took place in the late 1990s and early 2000s, usually with the participation of foreign banks. By the mid 2000s the banking sectors in many transition countries were dominated by foreign owners and were able to provide a wide range of services. Credit growth resumed, sometimes too rapidly, particularly in the form of lending to households. The global financial crisis put transition banking to test. Countries that had expanded credit rapidly were vulnerable to the macroeconomic shock and there was considerable concern that foreign owners would reduce their funding to transition country subsidiaries. However, the banking sectors turned out to be resilient, a strong indication of the rapid progress in institutional development and regulatory capabilities in the transition countries. |
| Keywords: | transition banking; bank privatization; foreign banks; bank regulation; credit growth |
| JEL: | G21 O57 P27 |
| Date: | 2014–03–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2014_008&r=cwa |
| By: | Faruk Ülgen (CREG - Centre de recherche en économie de Grenoble - Université Pierre-Mendès-France - Grenoble II : EA4625) |
| Abstract: | In the wake of the global change of a new accumulation regime in major capitalist economies, the opening up and liberalisation process of emerging economies from the 1980s has provoked great expectations that resulted in recurrent disappointing crises. Studied as a stylized fact, the Turkish experience leads us to assess the role of liberalised macroeconomic environment, unsuitable economic policies and hesitant and weak regulatory mechanisms as the main sources of perverse sequencing in the reform area. The paper shows that the Turkish crises since the 1980s arose from bad macroeconomic policies, which implemented the neo-liberal shock therapy model and triggered boom-and-bust cycles. After three decades of liberal reforms, the Turkish economy remains still subject to structural downturns. The economic recovery is not guaranteed by a hasty liberalisation. It requires consistent policies which should frame economic agents' forms of behaviour in order to induce a sustainable macroeconomic development. |
| Keywords: | liberalisation ; stability ; sustainable growth regime ; Turkish economy |
| Date: | 2013–10–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00968501&r=cwa |
| By: | Antonio Di Paolo (University of Barcelona); Aysýt Tansel (Middle East Technical University) |
| Abstract: | Foreign language skills represent a form of human capital that can be rewarded in the labor market. Drawing on data from the Adult Education Survey of 2007, this is the first study estimating returns to foreign language skills in Turkey. We contribute to the literature on the economic value of language knowledge, with a special focus on a country characterized by fast economic and social development. Although English is the most widely spoken foreign language in Turkey, we initially consider the economic value of different foreign languages among the employed males aged 25 to 65. We find positive and significant returns to proficiency in English and Russian, which increase with the level of competence. Knowledge of French and German also appears to be positively rewarded in the Turkish labor market, although their economic value seems mostly linked to an increased likelihood to hold specific occupations rather than increased earnings within occupations. Focusing on English, we also explore the heterogeneity in returns to different levels of proficiency by frequency of English use at work, birth-cohort, education, occupation and rural/urban location. The results are also robust to the endogenous specification of English language skills. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tek:wpaper:2013/14&r=cwa |
| By: | Dreger, Christian (DIW Berlin); Rahmani, Teymur (University of Tehran) |
| Abstract: | In line with the neoclassical growth model a persistent stream of oil revenues might have a long lasting impact on GDP per capita in oil exporting countries through higher investment activities. This relationship is explored for Iran and the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) using (panel) cointegration techniques. The existence of cointegration between oil revenues, GDP and investment can be confirmed for all countries. While the cointegration vector is found to be unique for Iran, long run equations for GDP and investment per capita are distinguished for the Gulf countries. Both variables respond to deviations from the steady state, while oil income can be treated as weakly exogenous. The long run oil elasticities for the Gulf states exceed their Iranian counterparts. In addition, investment in Iran does not react to oil revenues in the long run. Hence, oil revenues may have been spent less wisely in Iran over the past decades. |
| Keywords: | oil exporting countries, oil revenues, panel cointegration |
| JEL: | F43 O53 Q30 C33 |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8079&r=cwa |
| By: | Aurelio Volpe (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies) |
| Abstract: | During the 2008-2013 period, imports of lighting fixtures in Azerbaijan registered an average 20% growth yearly. There are a lot of projects planned to be realized in next several years, including construction of tourism resorts, hotel and business centers, health and recreation centers. The overall costs of projects provide for about USD 528 million. This report analyzes the lighting fixtures market in Azerbaijan, providing trends (2008-2013) in lighting fixtures production and consumption, imports and exports. Data on the supply structure, reference prices and distribution channels are also provided, as well as sales data, market shares and short company profiles of the major lighting fixtures companies operating on Azerbaijani market. |
| JEL: | L11 L22 L68 L81 |
| Date: | 2014–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mst:csilre:s78&r=cwa |
| By: | Timm, Christian |
| Abstract: | The article analyzes state dominance in Georgia's economy between 2003 and 2010 from the perspective of the (new) developmental state. The specific interlinkage of economic model, law and administration through which state interventions may generate market-enhancing effects provides the analytical framework for the examination of Georgia's institutional setting. The article argues that Georgia enjoyed favorable exogenous conditions for the emergence of a developmental state and was about to introduce a set of administrative features similar to developmental states. However, two factors significantly shaped state-economy relations different to developmental states. Firstly, Georgia opted for a radical anti-corruption-driven separation of state and economy and pursued, consequently, a strict Washington Consensus economic policy. In doing so, the government simultaneously abandoned effective formal instruments for the politically relevant steering of the distribution of economic advantages. This in turn increased the necessity for informal interventions in economic processes contradicting the chosen economic model. Secondly, the flexibility-approach of the government, which relied rather on capable managers than on structures and procedures, undermined the administrative reforms and prevented the emergence of an 'embedded autonomy' of the public service. The absence of a capable, institutional learning and autonomous administration must be seen as the major obstacle for the elaboration of appropriate strategies after 2008 when the government altered its neo-liberal approach towards state-managed capitalism. Although the government was able to steer private and public investments in the specific sectors by relying on its informal coercive power, the economic success of this economic policy, however, failed to appear. The article argues that the lack of an independent administration and the renunciation of means of formal coordination and of law in general are to be made responsible for this. In doing so, Georgian policy makers also waived the chance to reconcile their agenda of sustainable economic growth with the agenda of political power preservation. The study seeks to contribute to the question of institutional prerequisites for successful state interventions in Low- and Middle-Income Countries and, hence, to the growing literature on Post-Washington Consensus and New Developmentalism. -- |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:pfhrps:201402&r=cwa |