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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Akarca, Ali T. (University of Illinois at Chicago); Tansel, Aysit (Middle East Technical University) |
| Abstract: | During last sixty years, Turkish population moved from one province to another at the rate of about 7-8 percent per five-year interval. As a consequence of this massive internal migration, population residing in a province other than the one they were born in increased from 12 percent in 1950 to 39 percent in 2011. Impact of this population instability on provincial turnout rates in 2011 parliamentary election is studied, controlling for the effects of other socio-economic, demographic, political and institutional factors. Consequences of migration both at destinations and origins are considered. According to robust regressions estimated, the relationship between turnout and education is inverse U-shaped, and between turnout and age, U-shaped. The latter reflects generational differences as well. Large population, large number parliament members to be elected from a constituency, participation by large number of parties, and existence of a dominant party depress the turnout rate. A percentage increase in the proportion of emigrants among the people born in a province reduces turnout rate in that province by 0.13 percentage points, while a percentage increase in the ratio of immigrants in the population of a province reduces it by 0.06 percentage points. However, at destinations where large numbers of immigrants from different regions are concentrated, the opportunity afforded to immigrants to elect one of their own, reduces the latter adverse impact significantly and in some cases turns it to positive. |
| Keywords: | election turnout, internal migration, political participation, Turkey, voter behavior |
| JEL: | D72 J61 |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8036&r=cwa |
| By: | Ketenci, Natalya |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of the customs union between Turkey and the European Union on the balance of trade in Turkey. The framework for analysis is an extended trade gravity model onto which the impact of the customs union is applied. The gravity model of trade is estimated using dynamic panel data which applies the Generalized Method of Moments to a sample of OECD countries. Separate estimates were made for the periods before and after the process of trade liberalization in Turkey – 1980-1995 and 1996-2012, respectively – as well as for the full period – 1980-2012. The main conclusion is that when the European Union is accounted for as an econometric variable, the empirical results are striking: Turkey’s gains resulting from taking part in the customs union are noteworthy, with significant improvement in the trade balance with European Union countries. However, the trade flows, and specifically imports, have been mainly with OECD countries that are themselves not members of the EU. The model indicates that external common tariffs are responsible for Turkey’s trade growth rather than tariffs abolished in the internal market of the customs union. |
| Keywords: | Gravity model; GMM; Customs Union; European Union; OECD countries, Turkey. |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:54662&r=cwa |
| By: | M. Ege Yazgan (Istanbul Bilgi University); Hakan Yilmazkuday (Department of Economics, Florida International University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between the level of inflation and regional price-level convergence utilizing micro-level price data from Turkey during two clearly distinguishable periods of high and low inflation. The results indicate that higher persistence and slower convergence of price levels are evident during the low-inflation period, which corresponds to the inflation targeting (IT) regime. During the low-inflation IT regime, inflation convergence across regions appears to occur more quickly and may be responsible for the slower pace of convergence in price levels. Overall, IT in Turkey, which was successful in lowering and maintaining inflation at acceptable levels, also appears to be associated with faster convergence in inflation rates at the expense of slower convergence in price levels. |
| Keywords: | Price Convergence, Inflation Convergence, Micro-level Prices, Turkey. |
| JEL: | E31 F41 |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1412&r=cwa |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Rumen Dobrinsky (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Vladimir Gligorov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Peter Havlik (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Michael Landesmann (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Leon Podkaminer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Hermine Vidovic (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) expects GDP in Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) to pick up speed and grow on average by 2-3% over the forecast period 2014-2016 a major driving force rooted in an upward reversal of public and private investment. The question remains, however, whether investment-led growth in the CESEE countries is merely a statistical base effect of a few replacement investments or an indication of a profound paradigmatic shift. Increasing evidence suggests the latter for a number of reasons. During the ongoing economic crisis, public investment was severely reduced. However, in times of extreme uncertainty, the private sector is hesitant to invest. Hence, the public sector has to take the lead. It seems that the time for action has now come. This holds especially true for the New Member States, where towards the end of the previous year additional efforts were made to raise the absorption rate of the funds allocated within the context of the EU multiannual financial framework for 2007-2013 that was about to come to a close. Over the remaining disbursement period of the biennium 2014-2015 substantially higher amounts of EU-funded investment are to be expected. Given that, in practically all cases, national co-financing is also required, CESEE public capital investment will increase, with private investors likely following in its slipstream. Apart from a number of transport infrastructure projects, a host of thermal power plant projects are in the pipeline, as are several major investments in the construction and expansion of nuclear power plants across the region. Apart from public and semi-public infrastructure investment initiatives that have the potential to spur subsequent private investment, improving growth prospects in the euro area, the CESEE economies’ main trading partner, are likely to encourage export industries in the region to modernise and increase their capital stock. This should help avert a lapse into a deflationary spiral and foster a shift towards better equilibrium with lower unemployment rates over the medium term. However, substantial downward risks include possible effects from the current Russia-Ukraine conflict; in particular the interruption of energy supplies, potential trade embargoes or additional interest rate risk premia. All this could adversely affect investment-led growth in CESEE. |
| Keywords: | Central and East European new EU Member States, Southeast Europe, financial crisis, Balkans, Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Turkey, economic forecasts, employment, foreign trade, competitiveness, debt, deleveraging, exchange rates, fiscal consolidation |
| JEL: | C33 C50 E20 E29 F34 G01 G18 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52 |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:fpaper:fc:spring2014&r=cwa |
| By: | Armagan Tuna Aktuna-Gunes (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne - Paris School of Economics); Christophe Starzec (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne - Paris School of Economics); François Gardes (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne - Paris School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We use the demand system approach to estimate the size of informal economy in Turkey following the methodology based on the analysis of the individual consumption behaviour proposed by Pissarides, Weber [1989], Lyssiotou et al. [2004] and Fortin et al. [2009]. We extend this method by taking into account both the monetary expenditures and time spent on domestic activities. The necessary information of money and time inputs in consumption on the household's level is obtained by a statistical match of the Turkish Family Budget and Time Use surveys [2006]. As expected, the estimated model size of the informal economy in Turkey using the full (time plus money) expenditure is higher than those obtained by only monetary expenditure approach (in average 40.6% and 33.5% of GDP for self employers and 20.7% and 14.1% of GDP for wage-earners respectively) and also higher than that obtained by more conventional macroeconomic methods (35.1%). |
| Keywords: | Informal economy, complete demand system, full expenditures. |
| JEL: | D01 D12 E26 C81 |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:14018&r=cwa |
| By: | Ketenci, Natalya |
| Abstract: | The effect of the global financial crisis on the international trade patterns of developed countries has been one of the main focuses of recent studies. However, the dependence level of world trade on emerging markets increases every day. Therefore, it is important to study the level of the negative effect of the crisis on emerging economies and the level of their recovery potential. This paper empirically studies the effects of the financial crisis on changes in the trade elasticities of BRIICS (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China and South Africa) countries and Turkey. The imperfect substitute model (Goldstein and Khan 1985) for the export and import demand functions is used. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration is applied to test the cointegration relationships between exports and imports and their determinants and in order to estimate the export and import elasticities in the countries under examination. The empirical results provide enough evidence to conclude that changes in the exchange rate did not play significant role in export and import demand functions before the global financial crisis and after. However, foreign and domestic incomes are found highly significant and elastic in export and import demand functions, respectively. It is found as well that the global financial crisis had increasing effect on export and import responsiveness to foreign and domestic incomes respectively, except for Turkey and Brazil in the export demand function and South Africa in the import demand function. |
| Keywords: | financial markets; international trade; emerging markets. |
| JEL: | F14 F41 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:54659&r=cwa |
| By: | Nazli Karamollaoglu (MEF University, Turkey); M. Ege Yazgan (Istanbul Bilgi University) |
| Abstract: | Micro-level empirical research has begun to obtain important results on the effects of currency variations on firms' survival. To date, the literature has lacked detailed analysis of the effects of exchange rates on firms' survival behavior in emerging markets due to a scarcity of firm level information. Using a unique firm-level dataset, we test the impact of currency appreciation on the survival behavior of Turkish firms in manufacturing industries for 2002-2009. The results suggest that real exchange rate appreciation decreases the probability of survival in manufacturing industries. We also find that high (low) productivity firms have higher (lower) probability of survival than low (high) productivity firms as a result of domestic exchange rate appreciation. This evidence indicates that economic events/policies leading to appreciation in domestic currency should be cautiously managed, especially in a resource constrained emerging market economy such as Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate, firm-level, export, emerging markets, survival. |
| JEL: | F14 F31 F41 |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1411&r=cwa |
| By: | Yavuz Arslan; Evren Ceritoglu; Birol Kanik |
| Abstract: | Bu calismada Turkiye icin nufus dagilimi dinamiklerinin uzun donemde konut talebi uzerindeki etkisi incelenmektedir. TUIK hanehalki butce anketi verileri kullanilarak hanehalki konut talebi hanehalkindaki bireylerin yas araliklari ile iliskilendirilmis ve her bir yas araligi icin konut talebi elde edilmistir. Bu tahmin sonuclari TUIK nufus projeksiyonlari ile birlestirilerek Turkiye icin uzun donem konut talebi projeksiyonu bulunmustur. Ekonometrik tahminler konut talebindeki buyumenin nufus artisinin yani sira Turk toplumunun nufus yapisindaki degisimlerinden etkilendigini gostermektedir. 2009-2050 yillari arasinda kalan donemde konut talebi yillik ortalama yuzde 1,48 oraninda artarken; soz konusu artisin yuzde 1,08’lik kisminin nufus artisindan ve kalan yuzde 0,4’luk artisin nufus yapisindaki degisimden kaynaklanacagi tahmin edilmektedir. |
| Keywords: | Konut piyasasi, Konut talebi, Demografi |
| JEL: | J11 R21 R30 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1405&r=cwa |