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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Masahiro Kawai (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)); Peter J. Morgan |
| Abstract: | The Asian financial crisis (1997–1998) and the global financial crisis (2007–2009) highlighted the potential value of financial regionalism, i.e., regional-level cooperation in financial policy. This paper argues that there is a mediating role for regional-level institutions of financial regulation between national regulators in Asia and global-level institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the Financial Stability Board. This potential role includes : (i) monitoring financial markets and capital flows to identify regional systemic risks such as capital flows; (ii) coordinating financial sector surveillance and regulation to promote regional financial stability; and (iii) cooperating with global-level institutions in rule formulation, surveillance and crisis management. This is particularly important in an environment of increasing financial integration and harmonization in the region. The paper considers experiences of the European Union (EU) and Asia in regional financial cooperation and regulation and draws lessons for Asia. The EU represents the most advanced stage of regional financial integration and regulation in the world today, and can provide valuable lessons for Asia. Asia’s greater diversity of financial development and openness requires a more nuanced approach to integration. Despite its shortcomings and slow pace, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Economic Community process probably provides the most feasible and relevant model for regulatory cooperation on a voluntary basis. It would be desirable to extend this framework further in Asia, say to the ASEAN+3 countries for a start. Asian economies can also strengthen existing surveillance processes; enhance and diversify the resources, functions and membership of the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization and the Macroeconomic Research Office for surveillance and provision of a financial safety net; and create an Asian financial stability dialogue to monitor regional financial markets, facilitate policy dialogue and cooperation, and secure regional financial stability. |
| Keywords: | global financial crisis, Asian financial crisis, financial regionalism, financial regulation, regional financial integration, surveillance processe, financial safety net, Chiang Mai Initiative |
| JEL: | F33 F36 G15 G18 G28 |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:govern:23971&r=cwa |
| By: | Saumik Paul; Vengadeshvaran Sarma |
| Abstract: | Building on the theory of necessity entrepreneurship, we test whether female entrepreneurship was a part of the household coping mechanism facing the recent global crisis across 30 transition countries centered in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The identification strategy relies on the self-reported crisis victimization indicators at the household level. Main findings indicate that female members from crisis-affected households are more willing to become entrepreneurs and have initiated firms at a significantly higher rate since 2007. The estimated outcomes are particularly critical for male headed households with propensity score matching and doubly robust tests supporting the main findings. We also find that prior entrepreneurial activity at the household level, acts as a catalyst for such female necessity entrepreneurship. Overall, the findings suggest that crisis perhaps worked as a contextual factor contributing to the creation of necessary entrepreneurship among women. |
| Keywords: | Female Entrepreneurship; Economic Crisis; Eastern Europe and Central Asia |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notcre:13/08&r=cwa |
| By: | Abdulloev, Ilhom (Open Society Institute Assistance Foundation, Tajikistan); Epstein, Gil S. (Bar-Ilan University); Gang, Ira N. (Rutgers University) |
| Abstract: | Some immigrants try to keep their ethnicity hidden while others become ever deeply more mired in their home culture. We argue that among immigrants this struggle manifests itself in the ethnic goods they choose to consume. Different types of ethnic goods have vastly different effects on immigrant assimilation. We develop a simple theoretical model useful for capturing the consequences of this struggle, illustrating it with examples of Central Asian assimilation into the Muscovite economy. |
| Keywords: | assimilation, migrants, culture, ethnic goods |
| JEL: | J15 |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8004&r=cwa |
| By: | Juzhong Zhuang (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)); Ravi Kanbur; Changyong Rhee |
| Abstract: | This paper looks at the recent trends of rising inequality in developing Asia, asks why inequality matters, examines the driving forces of rising inequality, and proposes policy options for tackling high and rising inequality. Technological change, globalization, and market-oriented reform have driven Asia’s rapid growth, but have also had significant distributional consequences. These factors have favored owners of capital over labor, skilled over unskilled workers, and urban and coastal areas over rural and inland regions. Furthermore, unequal access to opportunity, caused by institutional weaknesses and social exclusion, has compounded the impacts of these forces. All these combined have led to a falling share of labor income in national income, increasing premiums on human capital, and growing spatial disparity—all contributing to rising inequality. The three drivers of rising inequality cannot and should not be blocked, because they are the same forces that drive productivity and income growth. This paper outlines a number of policy options for Asian policy makers to consider in addressing rising inequality. These options, aiming to equalize opportunities and, thereby, reduce inequality, include efficient fiscal measures that reduce inequality in human capital, policies that work toward increasing the number and quality of jobs, interventions that narrow spatial disparity, and reforms that strengthen governance, level the playing field, and eliminate social exclusion. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, developing Asia, market-oriented reform, unequal access to opportunity, institutional weaknesses, social exclusion |
| JEL: | D63 O15 O53 |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:macroe:23973&r=cwa |
| By: | Carolina V. Zuccotti (European University Institute); Harry Ganzeboom (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Ayse Guveli (University of Essex) |
| Abstract: | Research on educational and occupational achievement of immigrants in Europe has mainly followed an assimilationist approach, focused on comparisons with natives or other immigrant groups (see for example Heath & Cheung 2007). However, this may not be at all the perspective that migrants themselves find most relevant, if we assume that people move to improve their life chances relative to what they would have been in the origin society without migrating. Following this argument, the paper studies social mobility and status attainment among Turkish migrants and their descendants in nine Western European countries in comparison with Turks in Turkey (and native populations in Western Europe). The emphasis is therefore on the origins, through a twofold perspective: with respect to parents and with respect to non-migrants in Turkey. This way, the widely used approach of 'ethnic penalties' (also included in the analysis) is complemented with a focus on the benefits (and limitations) of migrating, not only in terms of average achievements with respect to those left behind, but also in terms of the possibilities that migration opens for social mobility processes. The study is based on a combined dataset from the European Social Survey (2002-2010) and the European Values Study (2008). Among the main findings, the paper shows that 'ethnic penalties' in terms of occupational status have been declining between the generations, as more Turks in Western Europe have been educated in the destination country. However, the comparison with Turks in Turkey shows that migration has not favoured immigrants on all accounts. While second generation Turks are on average less dependent on their parental background than Turks in Turkey, and those with lower class backgrounds (which comprises most of cases) are indeed better able to move relative to their parents in terms of education, they continue to be disadvantaged in terms of the occupations they get. This is due to the fact that in Turkey the same education leads to a higher occupational status, which makes the occupational 'gains' that second generation Turks obtain in Western Europe (on average) transform into lags with respect to those left behind. These lags also seem to be particularly pronounced for higher educated women. |
| Keywords: | Turkish migrants; first generation; second generation; Turks in Turkey; social mobility; status attainment |
| JEL: | J15 |
| Date: | 2014–03–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qss:dqsswp:1406&r=cwa |
| By: | Thomas Masterson; Emel Memis; Ajit Zacharias |
| Abstract: | The Levy Institute Measure of Time and Consumption Poverty (LIMTCP) is a two-dimensional measure that takes into account both the necessary consumption expenditures and the household production time needed to achieve a minimum standard of living -- factors often ignored in official poverty measures. In the case of Turkey, application of the LIMTCP reveals an additional 7.6 million people living in poverty, resulting in a poverty rate that is a full 10 percentage points higher than the official rate of 30 percent. |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:levyop:op_46&r=cwa |
| By: | Ali T. Akarca (Department of Economics, University of Illinois at Chicago); Aysit Tansel (Department of Economics, METU) |
| Abstract: | During last sixty years, Turkish population moved from one province to another at the rate of about 7-8 percent per five-year interval. As a consequence of this massive internal migration, population residing in a province other than the one they were born in increased from 12 percent in 1950 to 39 percent in 2011. Impact of this population instability on provincial turnout rates in 2011 parliamentary election is studied, controlling for the effects of other socio-economic, demographic, political and institutional factors. Consequences of migration both at destinations and origins are considered. According to robust regressions estimated, the relationship between turnout and education is inverse U-shaped, and between turnout and age, U-shaped. The latter reflects generational differences as well. Large population, large number parliament members to be elected from a constituency, participation by large number of parties, and existence of a dominant party depress the turnout rate. A percentage increase in the proportion of emigrants among the people born in a province reduces turnout rate in that province by 0.13 percentage points, while a percentage increase in the ratio of immigrants in the population of a province reduces it by 0.06 percentage points. However, at destinations where large numbers of immigrants from different regions are concentrated, the opportunity afforded to immigrants to elect one of their own, reduces the latter adverse impact significantly and in some cases turns it to positive. |
| Keywords: | election turnout, internal migration, political participation, Turkey, voter behavior. |
| JEL: | D72 J61 |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:1402&r=cwa |
| By: | Ahmet Faruk Aysan; Salih Fendoglu; Mustafa Kilinc |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effectiveness of macroprudential policies introduced by Turkey in late 2010. The unprecedented quantitative easing policies of advanced countries after the global financial crisis have presented serious financial stability concerns for most emerging countries including Turkey. To cope with these challenges, Turkey has devised new policy tools such as asymmetric interest rate corridor and reserve option mechanism. From the perspective of capital flows, the interest rate corridor works mainly through stabilizing supply of foreign funds, and the reserve option mechanism through decreasing the sensitivity of equilibrium exchange rate to shifts in the demand for foreign funds. Using a large panel of 46 countries and employing Bruno and Shin (2013a,b)’s methodology, we investigate whether the new policy framework in Turkey has been successful in cushioning the economy from volatile cross-border capital flows from a comparative perspective. The results show that, after controlling for a set of domestic and external variables and relative to a group of advanced and emerging countries, cross-border capital flows to Turkey have been less sensitive to global factors after the implementation of macroprudential policies. |
| Keywords: | Capital Flows, Macroprudential Policies |
| JEL: | E58 F32 F34 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1404&r=cwa |
| By: | Lauridsen, Jørgen T. (Department of Business and Economics); Zeren, Fatma (Inonu University); Ari, Ayse (Istanbul University) |
| Abstract: | The study investigates whether crime in Turkey is governed by economic rationality. An economic model of rational behaviour claims that the propensity to commit criminal activities is negatively related to risk of deterrence. Potential presence of higher risk profiles for certain population segments is investigated. Panel data aggregated to sub-regional levels and observed annually for the years 2008 to 2010 are applied. Controls for endogeneity among criminal activity level and risk of deterrence, intra-regional correlation, inter-temporal heterogeneity and spatial spillover are exerted. A positive effect of risk of deterrence on criminal activity is found which conflicts with the hypothesised economic rationality. Certain population segments are identified as obvious target groups for regional policy initiatives aiming to reduce criminal activities. These are in particular unemployed and males. On the other hand, educational attainment, poverty and youngsters are less obvious target groups, while the relationship between population density and crime is ambiguous. Finally, spatial spillover patters related to criminal activities seem to be highly relevant, thus implying that while initiatives toward criminal activities may well be formed at the regional level, coordination across regions might obviously be called for. |
| Keywords: | Crime; risk of deterrence; Turkey; panel data; spatial spillover |
| JEL: | C21 C23 K42 |
| Date: | 2014–03–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sdueko:2014_003&r=cwa |
| By: | Murat Ungor |
| Abstract: | [EN] Consumption taxes are the most important source of revenues used to finance public spending in Turkey, where the share of taxes on consumption (general and specific) is more than 40%. This study computes the average effective tax rates on consumption for Turkish economy and provides a glimpse of how Turkey stands in comparison with other OECD countries. We provide new estimates, in a comparative perspective, using national income accounts and tax revenue statistics. Average effective tax rates on consumption increased from around 10.5% in 1998 to around 15.5-16.5% in 2012. Turkey has one of the lowest average effective tax rates on consumption in the OECD and the calculated tax rates are very similar to those for Greece in recent years. We present an exercise and show the importance of time-variant consumption taxes to understand the changes in aggregate labor supply in Turkey. We also note that the revision to the national accounts has effects on the calculated tax rates. [TR] Turkiye’de, tuketim (genel ve ozel) uzerindeki vergiler, yuzde 40’in uzerinde bir pay ile kamu harcamalarini finanse etmek icin kullanilan vergi gelirlerinin en onemli kaynagidir. Bu calisma, milli gelir hesaplari ve vergi hasilati istatistiklerini kullanarak, Turkiye ekonomisi icin, diger OECD ulkeleri ile karsilastirmali bir bicimde, tuketim uzerindeki ortalama efektif vergi oranlarini sergilemektedir. Hesaplanan vergi oranlari kullanilarak, tuketim uzerindeki efektif vergi oranlarinin tuketim-calisma uzerine etkileri incelenmektedir. Turkiye ve diger ulkeler icin rapor edilmis olan seriler, ulke karsilastirmalarini iceren degisik calismalarda kullanilabilir. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1402&r=cwa |
| By: | Claudia Diehl; Elisabeth Liebau |
| Abstract: | By applying event-history analysis to all available waves of the German Socio-Economic Panel, we analyze how remigration intentions and actual remigration of Turkish migrants to Germany have evolved over time. The study draws from a broad set of theoretical approaches to remigration and it takes a different focus than previous studies by concentrating on long-term change in these rates. Our findings reveal an increase in remigration intentions and rates for first generation migrants after the turn of the millennium. Those who plan to return have a stronger emotional attachment to Turkey than those who plan to stay. Nevertheless, the two groups differ neither with respect to their educational levels nor in terms of their identification with Germany and perceptions of discrimination. Similarly, the small though slightly increasing group of immigrants that actually returns does not have a clear profile in terms of educational level, national identification, and perceptions of being disadvantaged in Germany. We thus argue that for first-generation migrants from Turkey after 2001, rising remigration intentions and actual remigration are unrelated to their integration into German society. Rather, the increase seems to be triggered by macro-structural changes in the country of origin. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp637&r=cwa |
| By: | Ahmet Faruk Aysan; Salih Fendoglu; Mustafa Kilinc |
| Abstract: | During the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, both advanced and emerging countries have implemented significant easing policies on monetary and fiscal fronts. Yet, the recovery, especially in advanced countries, was not as quick or strong as expected. These quantitative easing policies, coupled with weak recovery and restricted fiscal positions, have created not only abundant but also excessively volatile global liquidity conditions, leading to short-term and excessively volatile capital flows to emerging markets. To contain potential risks due to such flows, emerging countries have augmented their existing policy frameworks. Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), for example, has introduced two new policy tools in its new monetary policy framework: the asymmetric interest rate corridor and the reserve option mechanism. From a capital flows perspective, the interest rate corridor helps smooth fluctuations in supply of foreign funds, whereas the reserve option mechanism helps contain movements in demand for foreign funds. Both policies have been actively used by the CBRT and appeared to be effective in containing financial stability risks stemming from excessively volatile capital flows. |
| Keywords: | Capital flows, macroprudential policies, central banking |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1403&r=cwa |
| By: | Eli Berman; Michael Callen; Clark Gibson; James D. Long |
| Abstract: | International development agencies invest heavily in institution building in fragile states, including expensive interventions to support democratic elections. Yet little evidence exists on whether elections enhance the domestic legitimacy of governments. Using the random assignment of an innovative election fraud-reducing intervention in Afghanistan, we find that decreasing electoral misconduct improves multiple survey measures of attitudes toward government, including: (1) whether Afghanistan is a democracy; (2) whether the police should resolve disputes; (3) whether members of parliament provide services; and (4) willingness to report insurgent behavior to security forces. |
| JEL: | H41 O10 O17 O53 P16 |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19949&r=cwa |
| By: | Hande Kucuk; Pinar Ozlu; Anil Talasli; Deren Unalmis; Canan Yuksel |
| Abstract: | Recently, massive global liquidity has compelled many emerging market economies to change their monetary policy frameworks in order to address the financial stability challenges posed by volatile capital flows. In this respect, as of the second half of 2010, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has developed additional policy instruments to support the adoption of financial stability as a complementary objective to price stability. Liquidity management has actively been used in conjunction with a wide interest rate corridor to smooth excessive volatility in shortterm capital inflows. As a result, the spread between the Borsa Istanbul overnight repo interest rate and the CBRT average funding rate (overnight spread) has become wider and more volatile. We analyze the determinants of the overnight spread using data from both the traditional and the new monetary policy episodes and empirically document that this spread has recently been influenced by various factors which are directly or closely related to the liquidity policy of the CBRT. |
| Keywords: | Overnight interest rate; liquidity policy; monetary policy; operational framework |
| JEL: | E43 E52 C22 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1402&r=cwa |
| By: | Erol Taymaz (METU); Ebru Voyvoda (METU); Kamil Yilmaz (Koc University) |
| Abstract: | Turkiye, 1980 askeri darbesiyle ara verilen demokrasiye yedi yil sonra yapilan serbest secimlerle geri dondu. Bu makalede, Turkiye imalat sanayiinde reel ucretler ve isyeri duzeyinde emek ve toplam faktor verimliliginin 1987’de demokrasiye gecis sonrasindaki hareketleri incelenmektedir. 1988’den 1993’e imalat sanayiinde ortalama reel ucretler %120 artti. Yine ayni donemde toplam faktor ve emek verimliliginde daha once rastlanmayan duzeyde artislar gerceklesti. O donemdeki siyasi ve ekonomik gelismeleri yakindan izleyen iktisatcilar olarak, bu gozlemlerden yola cikarak reel ucret artislarinin rekabet guclerini kaybetmek istemeyen sirketleri, emek ve toplam faktor verimliligini artirmaya zorladigi hipotezini test ediyoruz. Isyeri duzeyinde zaman serilerini kullanarak yaptigimiz Granger nedensellik testleri, nedenselligin reel ucretlerden verimlilige dogru oldugunu ortaya koymaktadir. Bu bulgular, Turkiye’nin yani sira 1980’lerin sonunda demokrasiye gecis surecini sorunsuz bir sekilde gerceklestiren G. Kore, Sili ve Tayvan gibi ulkelerde gecis doneminde yasanan hizli verimlilik artislarini da dolayli olarak aciklamakta, “demokrasiler daha yuksek ucret oderler” hipotezini (Rodrik, 1999) desteklemektedir. |
| Keywords: | Demokratik gecis, Sendikalar ve grevler, Reel ucretler, Toplam faktor verimliligi, Emek verimliligi, Uzun-vadeli buyume. |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1408&r=cwa |