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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Kawai, Masahiro (Asian Development Bank Institute); Morgan, Peter J. (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | The Asian financial crisis (1997–1998) and the global financial crisis (2007–2009) highlighted the potential value of financial regionalism, i.e., regional-level cooperation in financial policy. This paper argues that there is a mediating role for regional-level institutions of financial regulation between national regulators in Asia and global-level institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the Financial Stability Board. This potential role includes: (i) monitoring financial markets and capital flows to identify regional systemic risks such as capital flows; (ii) coordinating financial sector surveillance and regulation to promote regional financial stability; and (iii) cooperating with global-level institutions in rule formulation, surveillance and crisis management. This is particularly important in an environment of increasing financial integration and harmonization in the region. The paper considers experiences of the European Union (EU) and Asia in regional financial cooperation and regulation and draws lessons for Asia. The EU represents the most advanced stage of regional financial integration and regulation in the world today, and can provide valuable lessons for Asia. Asia’s greater diversity of financial development and openness requires a more nuanced approach to integration. Despite its shortcomings and slow pace, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Economic Community process probably provides the most feasible and relevant model for regulatory cooperation on a voluntary basis. It would be desirable to extend this framework further in Asia, say to the ASEAN+3 countries for a start. Asian economies can also strengthen existing surveillance processes; enhance and diversify the resources, functions and membership of the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization and the Macroeconomic Research Office for surveillance and provision of a financial safety net; and create an Asian financial stability dialogue to monitor regional financial markets, facilitate policy dialogue and cooperation, and secure regional financial stability. |
| Keywords: | financial regulation; financial surveillance; regional cooperation; financial safety net; international financial markets; international monetary arrangements and institutions |
| JEL: | F33 F36 G15 G18 G28 |
| Date: | 2014–02–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0460&r=cwa |
| By: | Ahrens, Joachim; Stark, Manuela |
| Abstract: | This contribution explores the importance of independent organizations in authoritarian regimes. While some authoritarian governments delegate policy tasks to (relatively) autonomous agencies simply in order to improve their domestic or international image as modern political leaders or to build up democratic facades to conceal the actual nature of their regime, other political leaders do so in order to make their genuine commitment to economic growth and development more credible. This relates to the central questions of this paper: Why do political elites in authoritarian regimes craft, or accept the emergence of, (relatively) independent organizations? Which specific forms and functions of these organizations can be identified? The main observation of this paper is that authoritarian governments of so-called developmental states have effectively used (relatively) independent organizations in order to implement market-oriented reforms, to improve private-sector coordination, and to foster economic growth and development in the long run. -- |
| Keywords: | Political Economy of Authoritarianism,Governance of State Capitalist Systems |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:201401&r=cwa |
| By: | Terk, Eric |
| Abstract: | This article makes an attempt to compare the development patterns of the economies of the East Asian and Central and Eastern European (CEE) regions, which have been the fastest in catching up on the global arena. It observes both the internal fea-tures of the economies and economic policies and the parameters characterising their relation with the international background (openness, integration).The statistical materials used have been taken mostly from the World Economic Forum competi-tiveness reports and from the WB and IMF sources, while the descriptions of eco-nomic policy and its dynamic are based on materials concerning the regions under discussion and their individual countries. The goal of the article is not to reach con-clusions characterising the behaviour of the economies of the entire East Asian or CEE regions, but the economic development models, specific features, development and performing of countries, which have displayed top performance in either region and have reached the level of developed economies. -- |
| Keywords: | catching up,development models,developmental state |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:201402&r=cwa |
| By: | Alpaslan, Baris; Demirel, Baki |
| Abstract: | Most emerging market economies in the 1990s witnessed a wide variety of crises. Following those crises, emerging market economies have given up monetary policies using exchange rates as a nominal anchor and inflation targeting has become a new policy of such countries. The overshooting effect of exchange rates in these markets and therefore arising problems are an important cause of this political change. The aim of this paper is to evaluate exchange rate pass-through effects on prices in Asian Pacific, Latin American and Turkish economies which implemented inflation targeting, but have different dollarization and inflation episodes. Panel VAR approach was used in the analysis. Our findings show that exchange rate pass-through effect in Asian Pacific countries is lower than that of Latin America and Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Pass-through Effect, Inflation Targeting, Emerging Market Economies. |
| JEL: | E42 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2014–02–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:53726&r=cwa |
| By: | Olga A. Demidova (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to identify the spatial effects of the main macroeconomic indicators of the eastern and western regions of Russia. These regions differ significantly in population density and the distances between cities. The main research question we are interested in is the following: how are events occurring in one of the western regions, such as economic growth or a decrease in the unemployment rate, effecting similar indicators in other western and eastern regions. The spatial effects of the western and eastern regions, when considered separately, may differ both qualitatively and with of the ‘flow on effect’. The determinants of the same macro-economic indicators in the eastern and western regions may also differ. In order to test the hypothesis of a possible difference in the spatial effects and determinants for these regions, we have developed a special class of model with four spatial matrices (west-west, east-east, west-east, and east-west) and a double set of control variables (one for each type of region). As the macroeconomic indicators monitor the rate of unemployment in the region, the real regional wage and GRP growth for the year were chosen for our models. We controlled the variables describing the socio-demographic situation in the region, migration processes, economic development, and export-import activity in the region. The models were estimated by the Arellano-Bond method on panel data for Russian regions over 2000-2010. Our analysis revealed, 1) a positive spatial correlation of the main macroeconomic indicators for the western regions, 2) both positive and negative externalities for the eastern regions and 3) the asymmetric influence of eastern and western regions on each other. Usually “impulses” from the western regions have a positive effect on the eastern regions, but the “impulses” from the eastern regions usually do not affect the western regions. |
| Keywords: | Russian regions, spatial effects, spatial econometric models |
| JEL: | R1 C21 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:50/ec/2014&r=cwa |
| By: | Gonul Sengul (Central Bank of Turkey); Murat Tasci (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) |
| Abstract: | This paper measures flow rates into and out of unemployment for Turkey and uses these rates to estimate the unemployment rate trend, that is the level of the unemployment rate the economy converges to in the long-run. In doing so, the paper explores the role of the labor force participation in determining the trend unemployment. We find an inverse V-shaped pattern for the unemployment rate trend over time in Turkey, currently standing between 8.5 and 9 percent, with an increasing labor market turnover. We also find that allowing for an explicit role for participation changes the results substantially, reducing the “natural” rate at first, but then getting closer to the baseline over time. Finally, we show that this parsimonious model can be used for forecasting unemployment in Turkey with relative ease and accuracy. |
| Keywords: | Risk measurement, systemic risk, connectedness, systemically important financial institutions, vector autoregression, variance decomposition |
| JEL: | C3 G2 |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1404&r=cwa |
| By: | Andrei Y. Shastitko (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Svetlana V. Golovanova (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper demonstrates that even established and verified facts of agreements among producers are not a sufficient condition for cartel identification and, as a consequence, prosecution of agreement participants. Such requires looking at institutional details and the wider context of these and similar appearances or occurrences of documents and actions when qualifying the actions of market participants and their effects. This paper discusses a recent antitrust case brought against Russian manufacturers of large diameter pipes (LDPs) that examined supposedly abusive practices by these firms that were contrary to the law on the Protection of Competition, which prohibits market division. The case under consideration illustrates the importance of investigating institutional details when qualifying the actions of market participants and their effects. An analysis of the materials in this case using modern economic theory indicates that the presence of collusion is inconsistent with the active participation of the main consumer of LDPs in that agreement. The chosen format for the cooperation between pipe manufacturing companies and OJSC Gazprom, namely indicative planning, may be explained from the perspective of reducing contract risk in an environment characterized by large-scale private investments. |
| Keywords: | collusion, antitrust policy, credible commitments, indicative planning, contract risk |
| JEL: | K21 B52 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:49/ec/2014&r=cwa |
| By: | Ramayandi, Arief (Asian Development Bank); Rawat, Umang (Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge); Tang, Hsiao Chink (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | Events surrounding the global financial crisis have brought to light the potential role of monetary policy in precipitating the crisis. Numerous studies on advanced economies have documented a significant negative relationship between interest rates and bank risk-taking. This paper also finds the presence of the risk-taking channel based on a panel of publicly listed bank data in Asia. Using both annual and quarterly data, "too low" interest rates are found to lead to an increase in bank risk-taking. |
| Keywords: | Bank risk-taking; interest rates; panel data; monetary policy; Asian banks |
| JEL: | E43 E52 G21 |
| Date: | 2014–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbrei:0123&r=cwa |