nep-cwa New Economics Papers
on Central and Western Asia
Issue of 2013‒10‒18
29 papers chosen by
David J. Pollard
Leeds Metropolitan University

  1. Myanmar's apparel industry in the new international environment : prospects and challenges By Kudo, Toshihiro
  2. The long-run and intergenerational education impacts of intergovernmental transfers By Irineu de Carvalho Filho; Stephan Litschig
  3. Alliances in the Shadow of Conflict By Ke, Changxia; Konrad, Kai A.; Morath, Florian
  4. Scoping paper: Developing University Innovation Capacity: How can innovation policy effectively harness universities’ capability to promote high-growth technology businesses? By Einar Rasmussen; Paul Benneworth; Magnus Gulbrandsen
  5. Index-Based Risk Financing and Development of Natural Disaster Insurance Programs in Developing Asian Countries By Sommarat CHANTARAT; Kirk PANNANGPETCH; Nattapong PUTTANAPONG; Thanasin TANOMPONGHANDH
  6. Russian Peasants and Politicians: The Political Economy of Local Agricultural Support in Nizhnii Novgorod Province, 1864-1914 By Steven Nafziger
  7. A cross-country analysis of the relationship between income inequality and social capital By Heijke J.A.M.; Ioakimidis M.
  8. The Interrogation Game: Using Coercion and Rewards to Elicit Information from Groups By David Johnson; John Ryan
  9. Russian Serfdom, Emancipation, and Land Inequality: New Evidence By Steven Nafziger
  10. Kyrgyz Republic : Minimum Living Standards and Alternative Targeting Methods for Social Transfers By Franziska Gassmann
  11. Will income inequality cause a middle-income trap in Asia? By Akio Egawa
  12. Developing Skills for Innovative Growth in the Russian Federation By World Bank; National Research University – Higher School of Economics
  13. An Investigation of Oil Curse in OECD and Non-OECD Oil Exporting Economies Using Green Measures of Income By Natina Yaduma; Mika Kortelainen; Ada Wossink
  14. Privacy Expert Group Report on the Review of the 1980 OECD Privacy Guidelines By OECD
  15. Outcomes of Social Assistance in Central and Eastern Europe: A Pre-transfer Post-transfer Comparison By Avram, Silvia
  16. 2013 Global Hunger Index: The challenge of hunger: Building resilience to achieve food and nutrition security By von Grebmer, Klaus; Headey, Derek; Bene, Christophe; Haddad, Lawrence; Olofinbiyi, Tolulope; Wiesmann, Doris; Fritschel, Heidi; Yin, Sandra; Yohannes, Yisehac; Foley, Connell; von Oppeln, Constanze; Iseli, Bettina
  17. Bulgaria : Options to Improve Security of Gas Supply By World Bank
  18. Labor migration and economic growth in east and southeast Asia By Walmsley, Terrie; Aguiar, Angel; Ahmed, S. Amer
  19. Banking in Transition Countries By John Bonin; Iftekhar Hasan; Paul Wachtel
  20. The impact of migration on children left behind in Moldova By Gassmann, Franziska; Siegel, Melissa; Vanore, Michaella; Waidler, Jennifer
  21. The Effects of Government Spending Shocks on the Real Exchange Rate and Trade Balance in Turkey By Cem Cebi; Ali Askin Culha
  22. Institutional Voids or Entry Barriers? Business Groups, Innovation and Market Development in Emerging Economies By Fulvio Castellacci
  23. Can e-filing reduce tax compliance costs in developing countries ? By Yilmaz, Fatih; Coolidge, Jacqueline
  24. The identification of the sources of current account fluctuations in Ukraine By Nikolaychuk Sergiy; Shapovalenko Nadiia
  25. Eurozone Debt Crisis and its Effects on Turkish Economy By Aysan, Ahmet Faruk; Ermişoğlu, Ergun
  26. On the Trade-diversion Effects of Free Trade Agreements By Dai, Mian; Yotov, Yoto; Zylkin, Thomas
  27. Affect of financial leverage on firm performance. Empirical evidence from Karachi Stock Exchange. By Raza, Muhammad Wajid
  28. Development, Structure, and Transformation: Some Evidence on Comparative Economic Growth By Gordon C. McCord; Jeffrey D. Sachs
  29. Robbing Peter to Pay Paul: The Employment Effects of the Missouri Quality Jobs Program By Wall, Howard

  1. By: Kudo, Toshihiro
    Abstract: Myanmar’s apparel industry had long been denied access to Western markets due to sanctions against its military government. The birth of a "civilian" government in March 2011 improved Myanmar’s relations with the international community, and Western sanctions were largely lifted. Regained market access is expected to trigger rapid growth of Myanmar’s apparel exports. This paper examines this impact with a comparison to Vietnam’s apparel industry. The industry’s prospects are getting bright, but the business environment has recently changed drastically in Myanmar. A new challenge for Myanmar’s apparel industry is remaining globally competitive. This paper also examines advantages and disadvantages that apparel firms in Myanmar experience. Although its abundance of low-wage workers remains a source of competitiveness, Myanmar needs its government to play a more active role to build the foundation of the industry.
    Keywords: Myanmar, Apparel industry, Myanmar (Burma), Apparel, International market, Export, Sanctions, Economic growth
    JEL: F14 J39 L67
    Date: 2013–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper430&r=cwa
  2. By: Irineu de Carvalho Filho; Stephan Litschig
    Abstract: This paper provides regression discontinuity evidence on long-run and intergenerational education impacts of a temporary increase in federal transfers to local governments in Brazil. Revenues and expenditures of the communities benefiting from extra transfers temporarily increased by about 20% during the 4 year period from 1982 to the end of 1985. Schooling and literacy gains for directly exposed cohorts established in previous work that used the 1991 census are attenuated but persist in the 2000 and 2010 censuses. Children and adolescents of the next generation --born after the extra funding had disappeared-- show gains of about 0.08 standard deviation across the entire score distribution of two nationwide exams at the end of the 2000s. While we find no evidence of persistent improvements in school resources, we document discontinuities in education levels, literacy rates and incomes of test takers' parents that are consistent with intergenerational human capital spillovers.
    Keywords: intergovernmental grants, human capital, test scores, regression discontinuity
    JEL: H40 H72 I21 O15
    Date: 2013–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1390&r=cwa
  3. By: Ke, Changxia; Konrad, Kai A.; Morath, Florian
    Abstract: Victorious alliances often fight about the spoils of war. This paper presents an experiment on the determinants of whether alliances break up and fight internally after having defeated a joint enemy. First, if peaceful sharing yields an asymmetric rent distribution, this increases the likelihood of fighting. In turn, anticipation of the higher likelihood of internal fight reduces the alliance’s ability to succeed against the outside enemy. Second, the option to make non-binding declarations on non-aggression in the relationship between alliance members does not make peaceful settlement within the alliance more likely. Third, higher differences in the alliance players’ contributions to alliance effort lead to more internal conflict and more intense fighting.
    Keywords: Conflict; Contest; Alliance; Endogenous internal conflict; Hold-up problem; Non-aggression pact; Experiment
    JEL: D72 D74
    Date: 2013–01–14
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trf:wpaper:420&r=cwa
  4. By: Einar Rasmussen (Bodø Graduate School of Business (HHB), University of Nordland); Paul Benneworth (Center for Higher Education Policy Studies (CHEPS) at the University of the Twente); Magnus Gulbrandsen (Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture (TIK), University of Oslo)
    Abstract: Some universities and departments have been very successful in stimulating university spin-off firms (USOs). This has persuaded policy makers and university administrators to devote considerable resources to improve universities' capabilities to promote USOs, but with little tangible results. Related research has considered why some universities contributes more to business innovation than others, but whether the majority of universities can become innovation hotbeds remains an open question. This paper takes a novel interdisciplinary approach integrating insights from two separate literatures, academic entrepreneurship and university management. We start by taking the firm’s perspective and seek to understand the challenges faced by USOs and how universities can assist these firms in developing their entrepreneurial competencies. The structure and main purpose of universities are very different from that of new technology businesses and the transition from being an academic research activity to become a commercial business activity poses challenges both for the university and the USO. Much research on universities’ entrepreneurial capability focuses on ‘what’ universities can do to support USOs at the expense of ‘why’ universities’ might choose to promote USOs when they are under many intense competing demands from outside. We explore not only what universities can do to support USOs, but also how universities experience USOs’ support demands, and the circumstances under which universities can develop capability to promote USOs. We address the barriers that arise between universities and USOs and discuss mitigating factors which support the competencies of USOs whilst at the same time meet the different university stakeholders’ needs.
    Date: 2013–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tik:inowpp:20131007&r=cwa
  5. By: Sommarat CHANTARAT (Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University); Kirk PANNANGPETCH (Faculty of Agriculture, Khon Kaen University, Thailand); Nattapong PUTTANAPONG (Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University, Thailand); Thanasin TANOMPONGHANDH (School of Management, Mae Fah Luang University, Thailand)
    Abstract: This paper explores innovations in index-based risk transfer products (IBRTPs) as a means to address important insurance market imperfections that have precluded the emergence and sustainability of formal insurance markets in developing countries, where uninsured natural disaster risk remains a leading impediment of economic development. Using a combination of disaggregated nationwide weather, remote sensing and household livelihood data commonly available in developing countries, the paper provides analytical framework and empirical illustration on showing design nationwide and scalable IBRTP contracts, to analyse hedging effectiveness and welfare impacts at the micro level, and to explore cost effective risk-financing options. Thai rice production is used in our analysis with the goal to extend the methodology and implications to enhance development of national and regional disaster risk management in Asia.
    Keywords: Natural disaster insurance, index insurance, reinsurance, catastrophe bond, rice production, Thailand.
    JEL: Q54 G22 G12 Q11 O53
    Date: 2013–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2013-09&r=cwa
  6. By: Steven Nafziger (Department of Economics, Williams College)
    Abstract: This paper explores the local political economy of early agronomic efforts in Tsarist Russia by undertaking a two-part analysis of the role of the zemstvo – a 19th century institution of local self-government – in improving local agricultural conditions. First, we investigate the agronomic activities of various levels of government in Russia over the last fifty years of the Tsarist era. After discussing the relatively limited role played by the central ministries and peasant institutions of self-government, we follow Nafziger (2011) in undertaking a qualitative and cross-district empirical analysis of how variation in economic conditions and the political structure of the zemstvo assemblies may have motivated zemstvo expenditures on agriculture. This exercise finds evidence suggesting that the peasantry – the population most likely affected by agronomic efforts – had an influence on the policies of the zemstvo, despite rarely holding majority positions in the assemblies. To explore the mechanisms underlying these results, we turn to a case study of agricultural development and zemstvo policies in Nizhnii Novgorod province. We draw on archival records, contemporary publications, and newspaper accounts to document these factors, both at the provincial level and for one relatively non-agricultural district (Semenov). Our findings suggest that the policy preferences of the local elites and of leaders of the executive committees of the institution likely mattered more than the composition of the zemstvo assembly for the resulting outcomes. By shedding light on the political mechanisms behind local public support for agronomic efforts, this chapter makes an initial step towards a fuller account of the early stages of Russia’s agrarian transformation.
    Keywords: Russia, agronomy, political economy, agriculture
    JEL: N33 N43 N53 O13 H41 H72
    Date: 2013–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wil:wileco:2013-15&r=cwa
  7. By: Heijke J.A.M.; Ioakimidis M. (ROA)
    Abstract: This study investigated whether earnings inequality is associated with social capital as measured by active membership in organizations and interpersonal trust. Pearson product-moment correlation analysis showed that greater earnings inequality was associated with lower values on both measures of social capital in 14 European countries. While causality in either direction cannot be inferred from this result, it does suggest the possibility that earnings inequality negatively affects social capital. To test this idea further, we also tentatively examined whether other societal indicators related to earnings inequality are associated with social capital. These alternative indicatorsthe countrys percentage of urban residents, percentage of residents with tertiary education, and government spending as a percentage of GDPdid not show stronger relationships with social capital than did earnings inequality. Further analysis of the data by excluding specific groups of countries indicated little association between earnings inequality and measures of social capital. These results suggested that country-specific economic or cultural values play a large role in how earnings inequality and social capital are related.
    Keywords: Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials; Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Social and Economic Stratification;
    JEL: J31 Z13
    Date: 2013
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:umarot:2013003&r=cwa
  8. By: David Johnson (University of Calgary); John Ryan
    Abstract: In this paper, we examine how interrogators can get potential sources to provide information which entails defecting from their group. In our experiment, subjects are faced with an interrogator either using coercive techniques or offering rewards. We argue that coercion and reward affect individuals who are “conditional defectors†differently. These individuals will defect only when they can justify that selfish action as either fair or truth telling. For subjects who possess the information the interrogator desires, these conditional defectors will provide that information in both treatments because they are simply telling the truth. For ignorant subjects, conditional defectors provide bad information under coercion because honestly stating ignorance leads to unequal outcomes. In the reward treatment, truthfully saying “I don’t know†leads to a more equal outcome. This means that interrogators receive more information under coercion, but that information is of lower quality.
    Keywords: Group Identity, Punishment, Rewards, Information Gathering
    JEL: C91 D03 D02 L38
    Date: 2013–10–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:clg:wpaper:2013-23&r=cwa
  9. By: Steven Nafziger (Department of Economics, Williams College)
    Abstract: Serfdom is often viewed as a major institutional constraint on the economic development of Tsarist Russia, one that persisted well after emancipation occurred in 1861 through the ways that property rights were transferred to the peasantry. However, scholars have generally asserted this causal relationship with few facts in hand. This paper introduces a variety of newly collected data, covering European Russia at the district (uezd) level, to describe serfdom, emancipation, and the subsequent evolution of land holdings among the rural population into the 20th century. A series of simple empirical exercises describes several important ways that the institution of serfdom varied across European Russia; outlines how the emancipation reforms differentially affected the minority of privately owned serfs relative to the majority of other types of peasants; and connects these differences to long-run variation in land ownership, obligations, and inequality. The evidence explored in this paper constitutes the groundwork for considering the possible channels linking the demise of serfdom to Russia’s slow pace of economic growth prior to the Bolshevik Revolution.
    Keywords: Russia, economic history, serfdom, inequality, land reform, institutions
    JEL: N33
    Date: 2013–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wil:wileco:2013-14&r=cwa
  10. By: Franziska Gassmann
    Keywords: Food and Beverage Industry Poverty Reduction - Poverty Lines Poverty Reduction - Rural Poverty Reduction Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Regional Economic Development Industry
    Date: 2013–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16087&r=cwa
  11. By: Akio Egawa
    Abstract: The Asian economy is expected to realise favourable growth during the first half of this century, but there is no guarantee. There is a discussion about a â??middle-income trapâ??, which refers to a country that has realised rapid growth to become a middle-income country but is unable to grow further. A middle-income trap could occur not only if there is a delay in shifting the economy toward a productivity-driven structure, but also if there is a worsening of income distribution.We consider this in line with the theories of development economics and through a quantitative analysis. The relationship between income inequality and the trap can be explained by the Kuznets hypothesis and the basic-needs approach. Our quantitative analysis supports the Kuznets hypothesis, and indicates that,although a low-income country can accelerate its economic growth with the worsening of income distribution as an engine, a middle income country would experience a decreasing growth rate if it fails to narrow the income gap between the top and bottom income groups. The results also show that the basic-needs approach is also applicable in practice, and imply that the improvement of access to secondary education is important. A sensitivity analysis for three Asian upper-middle-income countries(China, Malaysia and Thailand) also shows that the situation related to a middle-income trap is worse than average in China and Malaysia. These two countries, according to the result of the sensitivity analysis, should urgently improve access to secondary education and should implement income redistribution measures to develop high-tech industries, before their demographic dividends expire. Income redistribution includes the narrowing of rural urban income disparities, benefits to low-income individuals, direct income transfers, vouchers or free provision of education and health-care, and so on, but none of these are simple to implement.
    Date: 2013–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:wpaper:797&r=cwa
  12. By: World Bank; National Research University – Higher School of Economics
    Keywords: Education - Access & Equity in Basic Education Education - Education For All Education - Educational Sciences Education - Knowledge for Development Education - Primary Education
    Date: 2013–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16100&r=cwa
  13. By: Natina Yaduma; Mika Kortelainen; Ada Wossink
    Date: 2013
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:man:sespap:1321&r=cwa
  14. By: OECD
    Abstract: The work of the expert group played an essential role in a process which concluded in July 2013 with the adoption by the OECD Council of the first revisions to the OECD Privacy Guidelines since their original release in 1980. This document identifies a number of issues that were raised but not fully addressed as part of the review process and which could be considered as candidates for possible future study.
    Date: 2013–10–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:stiaab:229-en&r=cwa
  15. By: Avram, Silvia
    Abstract: The poverty reduction potential of national social assistance programs in eight Central and Eastern European countries is examined using data from the EU-SILC. Results indicate that social assistance programs are a marginal component of the social protection system throughout the region. They serve small populations, spend relatively little compared to needs and the benefits they award are largely a top-up for their clients. However, the more extensive and liberal programs achieve higher effectiveness in reducing poverty. Unlike Western Europe, no trade-off between extensiveness and benefit generosity or between generosity and efficiency could be found. Decentralization and discretion are associated with inefficiency and arbitrariness in entitlement decisions rather than improved targeting.
    Date: 2013–10–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:iserwp:2013-18&r=cwa
  16. By: von Grebmer, Klaus; Headey, Derek; Bene, Christophe; Haddad, Lawrence; Olofinbiyi, Tolulope; Wiesmann, Doris; Fritschel, Heidi; Yin, Sandra; Yohannes, Yisehac; Foley, Connell; von Oppeln, Constanze; Iseli, Bettina
    Abstract: The 2013 Global Hunger Index (GHI) report—the eighth in an annual series—presents a multidimensional measure of national, regional, and global hunger. It shows that the world has made some progress in reducing hunger since 1990, but still has far to go. The 2013 GHI report focuses on resilience in theory and in practice. The relief and development communities have long struggled to understand why some people fare better than others when confronting stresses or shocks. Given that world hunger remains “serious†according to the index, resilience-building efforts are much needed to help poor and vulnerable people cope with hunger seasons, droughts, and other natural and manmade disasters both short-term and long-term. Building resilience will involve boosting food and nutrition security. In order to achieve that goal, the humanitarian and development communities must work together.
    Keywords: Africa South of Sahara; Caribbean; CIS; Commonwealth of Independent States; South Asia; Southeast Asia; Latin America; Developing countries; Middle East; North Africa; OECD countries; India; East Africa; East Asia; Eastern Europe; Food availability; food crises; food crisis; food prices; food security; Global Hunger Index; GHI; Gross income; indicators; Children; Land; Land degradation; Nutrition; Malnutrition; Undernutrition; Hunger; Mortality; Natural resources; Climate change; Data; Policies; Poverty; property rights; smallholders; Stress; Sustainable development; sustainable livelihoods; transition economies; Undernutrition; Underweight; Water; resilience; natural disasters; disaster relief; environmental disasters; emergencies; environmental shocks; environmental risks
    Date: 2013
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:issbrf:9780896298330&r=cwa
  17. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Water Resources - Water and Industry Environment - Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Climate Change Economics Oil Refining and Gas Industry Energy - Energy Production and Transportation Industry
    Date: 2013–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16080&r=cwa
  18. By: Walmsley, Terrie; Aguiar, Angel; Ahmed, S. Amer
    Abstract: East and Southeast Asia face major demographic changes over the next few decades as many countries'labor forces will start to decline, while others will experience higher labor force growth as populations and participation rates increase. A well-managed labor migration strategy presents itself as a mechanism for ameliorating the impending labor shortages in some East-Asia Pacific countries, while providing an opportunity for other countries with excess labor to provide migrant workers that will contribute to the development of the home country through greater remittance flows. Although migration would be unable to offset the economic impacts of the declining labor forces in the countries with shrinking populations, a more flexible migration policy, allowing migrants to respond to the major demographic changes occurring in Asia over the next 50 years, would be beneficial to most economies in the region in terms of real incomes and real gross domestic product over the 2007-2050 period. Such a policy could deeply affect the net migration position of a country. Countries that were net recipients under current migration policies might become net senders under the more liberal policy regime.
    Keywords: Population Policies,Labor Markets,Banks&Banking Reform,Labor Policies,Economic Growth
    Date: 2013–10–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6643&r=cwa
  19. By: John Bonin (Department of Economics, Wesleyan University); Iftekhar Hasan (Fordham University, 5 Columbus Circle, 11-22, New York, NY 10019); Paul Wachtel (Stern School of Business, New York University, New York NY 10012)
    Abstract: Modern banking institutions were virtually non-existent in the planned economies of central Europe and the former Soviet Union. In the early transition period, banking sectors began to develop during several years of macroeconomic decline and turbulence accompanied by repeated bank crises. However, governments in many transition countries learned from these tumultuous experiences and eventually dealt successfully with the accumulated bad loans and lack of strong bank regulation. In addition, rapid progress in bank privatization and consolidation took place in the late 1990s and early 2000s, usually with the participation of foreign banks. By the mid 2000s the banking sectors in many transition countries were dominated by foreign owners and were able to provide a wide range of services. Credit growth resumed, sometimes too rapidly, particularly in the form of lending to households. The global financial crisis put transition banking to test. Countries that had expanded credit rapidly were vulnerable to the macroeconomic shock and there was considerable concern that foreign owners would reduce their funding to transition country subsidiaries. However, the banking sectors turned out to be resilient, a strong indication of the rapid progress in institutional development and regulatory capabilities in the transition countries.
    Keywords: transition banking, bank privatization, foreign banks, bank regulation, credit growth
    Date: 2013–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wes:weswpa:2013-008&r=cwa
  20. By: Gassmann, Franziska (UNU-MERIT/MGSoG); Siegel, Melissa (UNU-MERIT/MGSoG); Vanore, Michaella (UNU-MERIT/MGSoG); Waidler, Jennifer (UNU-MERIT/MGSoG)
    Abstract: This paper empirically evaluates the well-being of children "left behind" by migrant household members in Moldova. Using data derived from a nationally-representative, large-scale household survey conducted between September 2011 and February 2012 among 3,255 households (1,801 of which contained children aged 0-17) across Moldova, different dimensions of child well-being are empirically evaluated. Well-being of children in Moldova is divided into eight different dimensions, each of which is comprised of several indicators. Each indicator is examined individually and then aggregated into an index. Well-being outcomes are then compared by age group, primary caregiver, migration status of the household (current migrant, return migrant, or no migration experience), and by who has migrated within the household. It was found that migration in and of itself is not associated with negative outcomes on children's well-being in any of the dimensions analysed, nor does it matter who in the household has migrated. Children living in return migrant households, however, attain higher rates of well-being in specific dimensions like emotional health and material well-being. The age of the child and the material living standards experienced by the household are much stronger predictors of well-being than household migration status in a number of different dimensions. The results suggest that migration does not play a significant role in shaping child well-being outcomes, contrary to the scenarios described in much past research. This paper is the first (to the authors' knowledge) to link migration and multidimensional child poverty.
    Keywords: Moldova, migration, poverty, child poverty, multi-dimensional poverty
    JEL: I32 F22 J61 O15
    Date: 2013
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:unumer:2013043&r=cwa
  21. By: Cem Cebi; Ali Askin Culha
    Abstract: This study aims to investigate the e¤ects of government spending shocks on the real exchange rate and foreign trade balance in Turkey for the period of 2002.I - 2012.IV within a structural VAR framework. The analysis shows that a positive shock to government spending tends to induce real exchange rate appreciation and deterioration in trade balance. We also ?nd that composition of the government spending matters. While shocks to government non-wage consumption generate an appreciation in the real exchange rate and worsening of the trade balance, e¤ects of government investment shocks remain insignificant. Furthermore, the analysis demonstrates that shocks to government spending are associated with a rise in taxes, which points to the existence of a spending- driven tax adjustment process in Turkey.
    Keywords: Government Spending Shocks, Real Exchange Rate, Trade Balance, SVAR
    JEL: E62 H30
    Date: 2013
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1337&r=cwa
  22. By: Fulvio Castellacci (Department of International Economics, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI), Norway)
    Keywords: Business groups, innovation, institutional voids, entry barrieris, market development, emerging economics, Latin America
    Date: 2013–10–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sru:ssewps:2013-05&r=cwa
  23. By: Yilmaz, Fatih; Coolidge, Jacqueline
    Abstract: The purpose of this study is to investigate the association between electronic filing (e-filing) and the total tax compliance costs incurred by small and medium size businesses in developing countries, based on survey data from South Africa, Ukraine, and Nepal. A priori, most observers expect that use of e-filing should reduce tax compliance costs, but this analysis suggests that the assumption should be more nuanced. In particular, policies that require business taxpayers to submit paper-based information in addition to their e-filing roughly negate savings that would otherwise be realized. In addition, adoption of e-filing requires an up-front investment by the business not only in capital assets, but also in the time, effort, and resources required to learn how to use e-filing properly and efficiently. Small businesses, in particular, are likely to face a steep"learning curve"and should probably not be forced to use e-filing before the majority of them have access to computers (with reliable electricity service) and have had a chance to become familiar with both computer use and the Internet.
    Keywords: Taxation&Subsidies,Information Security&Privacy,Debt Markets,Information and Records Management,Emerging Markets
    Date: 2013–10–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6647&r=cwa
  24. By: Nikolaychuk Sergiy; Shapovalenko Nadiia
    Abstract: This paper studies the sources of current account fluctuations in Ukraine. We apply astructural VAR approach to estimate the effects of the following shocks: supply anddemand shocks, nominal shocks and terms-of-trade shocks. For identificationpurposes we impose sign restrictions on the impulse response functions. Theserestrictions are determined on the basis of macroeconomic theory and the results ofprevious papers on related topics. We use the estimated structural shocks tohistorically decompose the trade balance into fundamental factors. The results areconsistent with the predictions of a wide set of open-economy models: (1) the tradebalance in Ukraine is mostly driven by demand and terms-of-trade shocks, (2) a surgein demand caused by changes in fiscal policy and/or in preferences of economicagents leads to a significant deterioration of the trade balance, (3) a persistent adverseterms-of-trade shock is found to have a negative long-run effect on the trade balance(in line with the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect), (4) nominal shocks have a muchsmaller effect on the trade balance. In addition, some evidence of J-curve effect is found.
    JEL: C32 E0 F41
    Date: 2013–09–18
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:13/12e&r=cwa
  25. By: Aysan, Ahmet Faruk; Ermişoğlu, Ergun
    Abstract: The Eurozone debt crisis is an ongoing financial crisis that has made it difficult or impossible for some countries in the euro area to rollover their government debt without the help of third parties. The reasons for the Eurozone debt crisis can be summarized in three groups: (i) Errors on the structure of the Monetary Union, (ii) Macroeconomic instabilities among the monetary union, (iii) Problems on the financial system. In this paper, after discussing the origins of the crisis, we summarize the measures taken against the crisis and then describe the current stage of the crisis. Finally, we focus on the effects of the crisis on the Turkish economy. Turkey is affected by the crisis via three channels: trade, finance and expectations channel. We focus especially on the trade and finance channel for the scope of this paper. We show that these effects have remained rather limited for Turkey with the help of the strong macroeconomic and financial structure.
    Keywords: Eurozone debt crisis, Optimum Currency Area, Turkish economy
    JEL: F15 F34 F36
    Date: 2013–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:50501&r=cwa
  26. By: Dai, Mian (Drexel University); Yotov, Yoto (Drexel University); Zylkin, Thomas (Drexel University)
    Abstract: Standard trade theory suggests that Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) could disrupt trade between members and non-members. However, the trade diversion effects of FTAs have not been thoroughly examined empirically. Using a novel empirical approach, we confirm that FTAs that entered into force during the 1990s diverted trade away from non-member countries. Interestingly, we find that diversion from internal trade due to FTAs was significantly stronger than diversion from external trade.
    Keywords: International Trade; Gravity; Free Trade Agreements; Trade Diversion
    JEL: F13 F14 F15
    Date: 2013–08–16
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:drxlwp:2013_003&r=cwa
  27. By: Raza, Muhammad Wajid
    Abstract: Using panel data analysis, we attempt to find the determinants of capital structure of KSE listed none-financial firms for the period 2004-2009. We first present some descriptive statistics on our selected variables. The most interesting finding of our descriptive statistics is the highest leverage ratio for textile industry whereas the average profitability of textile industry is negatives. The results of this study shows negative relation between performance and leverage. Long term debt is more expensive due to certain direct and indirect costs. Therefore employing high level of debt results low profitability. The result of second hypothesis shows no significance between leverage and profitability. On the basis of these findings it is concluded that profitability is consistent with picking order theory. In the light of above discussion we can say that the existing theories of capital structure contribute to some extent in decision making process.
    Keywords: Financial leverage, Capital structure, Return on Assets, Debt to Equity, Picking Order Theory
    JEL: M1 M16 M19
    Date: 2013–09–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:50383&r=cwa
  28. By: Gordon C. McCord; Jeffrey D. Sachs
    Abstract: We suggest that the geographical patterns of income differences across the world have deep underpinnings. We emphasize that economic development is a complex process driven by economic, political, social, and biophysical forces. Some economists have argued that the patterns reflect mainly the historical footprint of colonial rule and political evolution, and that geography’s effects on development occurred exclusively through its effects on this historical institutional development. We believe that economic development has also been shaped very importantly by the biophysical and geophysical characteristics of economies. Per capita incomes differ around the world in no small part because of sharp differences across regions in the natural resource base and physical geography (e.g. distance to coast), and by the amplification of those differences through the dynamics of saving and investment. We posit that the drivers of economic development include institutions, technology, and geography, and that none of these alone is sufficient to account for the diverse patterns of global growth. We survey the relevant literature, and empirically show that a multi-causal framework helps to explain when countries achieve middle income; the distribution of economic activity around the world today; the patterns of growth between 1960 and 2010; the patterns of income per person within large economies; and the structural characteristics of the remaining countries still stuck in poverty today.
    JEL: O1 O13 O3 O4
    Date: 2013–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19512&r=cwa
  29. By: Wall, Howard
    Abstract: This paper is an assessment of the employment effects of the Missouri Quality Jobs Program, which awards tax credits to businesses so as to spur state job creation. According to the Missouri Department of Economic Development, which adminsters the program, the tax credits rewarded under the program have, created more than 10,000 new jobs, so far, and will generate a net increase of more than 50,000 jobs by 2020. My estimates indicate, however, that the program simply transfers jobs to subsidized projects from the rest of the economy, while also creating labor-market distortions. My baseline estimates indicate that there were about 5,000 fewer private-sector jobs in Missouri in 2011 because of the program. Alternative estimates suggest even larger job losses. The most-likely best-case scenario for the long run is that the hundreds of millions of dollars transferred to businesses under the program will have led to no net change in state employment.
    Keywords: state tax credits, missouri quality jobs program
    JEL: R00 R58
    Date: 2013–09–13
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:50605&r=cwa

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