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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Ahmet Benlialper; Hasan Cömert |
| Abstract: | Especially, after the 2000s, many developing countries let exchange rates float and began implementing inflation targeting regimes based on mainly manipulation of expectations and aggregate demand. However, most developing countries implementing inflation targeting regimes experienced considerable appreciation trends in their currencies. Might have exchange rates been utilized as implicit tools even under inflation targeting regimes in developing countries? To answer this question and investigate the determinants of inflation under an inflation targeting regime, as a case study, this paper analyzes the Turkish experience with the inflation targeting regime between 2002 and 2008. There are two main findings of this paper. First, the evidence from a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model suggests that the main determinants of inflation in Turkey during this period are supply side factors such as international commodity prices and the variation in exchange rate rather than demand side factors. �Since the Turkish lira (TL) was considerably over-appreciated during this period, it is apparent that the Turkish Central Bank benefited from the appreciation of the TL in its fight against inflation during this period. Second, our findings suggest that the appreciation of the TL is related to the deliberate asymmetric policy stance of the Bank with respect to the exchange rate. �Both the econometric analysis from a VAR model and descriptive statistics indicate that appreciation of the Turkish lira was tolerated during the period under investigation whereas depreciation was responded aggressively by the Bank. We call this policy stance under the inflation targeting regimes as “implicit asymmetric exchange rate peg”. �The Turkish experience indicates that, as opposed to rhetoric of central banks in developing countries, inflation targeting developing countries may have an asymeyric stance toward exchange rates and favour appreciation of their currencies to hit their inflation targets. In this sense, IT seems to contribute to the ignorance of dangers regarding to over-appreciation of currencies in developing countries. � � |
| Keywords: | Inflation Targeting, Central Banking, Developing Countries, Exchange Rates |
| JEL: | E52 E58 E31 F31 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uma:periwp:wp333&r=cwa |
| By: | Michael Kromov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | This paper deals with Russia's banking sector in 2012. The author focuses on relationship between banks and corporate customers, foreign transactions in the banking sector, banking regulation. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, banking sector, foreign transactions, banking regulation |
| JEL: | E41 E51 E58 G28 G21 G24 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:147&r=cwa |
| By: | Olga Izryadnova (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | This paper deals with Russia's production macrostructure in 2012. The author focuses on the post-crisis performance of the Russian economy, main characteristics of GDP utilization and changes in the GDP structure by source of income. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, production macrostructure, GDP |
| JEL: | F34 G24 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:145&r=cwa |
| By: | Sergey Tsukhlo (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The author studies the performance of Russian industrial enterprise in 2012. He focuses on the issue of the second wave of the crises hitting the Russian industry. The paper also deals with lending issues to the Russian industry in 2012. Problems of labor shortages hitting the Russian industry are investigated as well. Assessment of the government anti-crisis measures are also provided. |
| Keywords: | Russian industry performance, lending to industry, labor problems, anti-crisis government measures |
| JEL: | C53 E37 L21 L52 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:157&r=cwa |
| By: | Samuel Nursamsu (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics Universitas Indonesia); Fithra Faisal Hastiadi (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics Universitas Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | This research tries to explain the relation between international R&D spillover from international trade and FDI channel with productivity (TFP) based on endogenous growth theory in Asian Newly Industrialized Countries (ANIC) in period 1990--2010. In this research, it is found that R&D spillover is a significant factor in increasing TFP, especially from trade channel. It is also found that the availability of educated workers is another important factor in increasing productivity. From the comparison of the two country groups in ANIC, it is found that in ANIC Tier 2, international R&D spillover from export is not increasing productivity, yet its spillover effect is still significant. Another finding of this research is FDI is not an important channel for technology spillover. However, there is a need to further discuss the FDI spillover measurement. |
| Keywords: | R&D Spillover, Endogenous Growth, Productivity, Asia Developing Countries |
| JEL: | F00 O33 O47 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpecbs:201310&r=cwa |
| By: | Lilia Karachurina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The State Migration Policy Concept of the Russian Federation through 2025 was adopted in Russia in 2012 after an extended discussion. The Concept is the second one in the Russian modern history. The first one – The Migration Process Regulation Concept of the Russian Federation – was issued in 2003 but failed to be implemented both due to the fact that “the rigor of the laws is commonly mitigated by non-compliance therewith in Russia” and some of the provisions of the above document were rendered a priori impossible and its analytical quality was found to be hit-or-miss. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, migration, labor migration, domestic migration |
| JEL: | J11 J61 J62 F22 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:160&r=cwa |
| By: | Michael Kopsidis (Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO)); Katja Bruisch (German Historical Institute Moscow (DHI Moskau)); Daniel W. Bromley (University of Wisconsin-Madison) |
| Abstract: | This paper deals with agricultural dynamics in late-Imperial Russia. Based upon a comprehensive micro-level data set on annual yields between 1883 and 1913, we provide insight into regional differences of agricultural growth and the development prospects of Russian agriculture before WWI. Making use of the fact that— unique in Europe— contemporary Russian statistics distinguished between “privately owned” and mostly communally governed “peasant” land, we are able to test the implications of different landtenure systems for agricultural growth. In a broader sense we will challenge the stereotype of the “backward” peasant and the common narrative of Russia as an exception to the pan-European picture of economic development during the era of industrialization. |
| Keywords: | Russia, land productivity, peasant communal agriculture, land tenure |
| JEL: | N53 O13 Q15 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0046&r=cwa |
| By: | Anton Cheremukhin; Mikhail Golosov; Sergei Guriev; Aleh Tsyvinski |
| Abstract: | This paper studies structural transformation of Soviet Russia in 1928-1940 from an agrarian to an industrial economy through the lens of a two-sector neoclassical growth model. We construct a large dataset that covers Soviet Russia during 1928-1940 and Tsarist Russia during 1885-1913. We use a two-sector growth model to compute sectoral TFPs as well as distortions and wedges in the capital, labor and product markets. We find that most wedges substantially increased in 1928-1935 and then fell in 1936-1940 relative to their 1885-1913 levels, while TFP remained generally below pre-WWI trends. Under the neoclassical growth model, projections of these estimated wedges imply that Stalin's economic policies led to welfare loss of -24 percent of consumption in 1928-1940, but a +16 percent welfare gain after 1941. A representative consumer born at the start of Stalin's policies in 1928 experiences a reduction in welfare of -1 percent of consumption, a number that does not take into account additional costs of political repression during this time period. We provide three additional counterfactuals: comparison with Japan, comparison with the New Economic Policy (NEP), and assuming alternative post-1940 growth scenarios. |
| JEL: | E6 N23 N24 O4 O41 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19425&r=cwa |
| By: | Irina Dezhina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The past year was marked by the alteration of former trends and priorities following the change of the President and the Government. State policies for supporting science came to the fore while the encouragement of innovative activities and technological development lost in the frequency of its mentioning in the official documents. The switching of priorities was also reflected in the way consultative bodies were restructured. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, science, innovations, education institutions |
| JEL: | O31 O32 O38 I21 I22 I23 I24 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:161&r=cwa |
| By: | Ravi Balakrishnan; Chad Steinberg; Murtaza H. Syed |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses how pro-poor and inclusive Asia’s recent growth has been, and what factors have been driving these outcomes. It finds that while poverty has fallen across the region over the last two decades, inequality has increased, dampening the impact of growth on poverty reduction. As a result, relative to other emerging and developing regions and to Asia’s own past, the recent period of growth has been both less inclusive and less pro-poor. Our analysis suggests a number of policies that could help redress these trends and broaden the benefits of growth in Asia. These include fiscal policies to increase spending on health, education, and social safetynets; labor market reforms to boost the labor share of total income; and reforms to make financial systems more inclusive. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth;Asia;Fiscal policy;Government expenditures;Social safety nets;Labor market reforms;China;Asia, Inequality, Inclusive Growth, Poverty, Labor Market, Fiscal Policy, Financial Markets. |
| Date: | 2013–06–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/152&r=cwa |
| By: | di Mauro, Filippo; Caristi, Pierluigi; Couderc, Stéphane; di Maria, Angela; Ho, Lauren; Grewal, Beljeet Kaur; Masciantonio, Sergio; Ongena, Steven; Zaher, Sajjad |
| Abstract: | Islamic finance is based on ethical principles in line with Islamic religious law. Despite its low share of the global financial market, Islamic finance has been one of this sector’s fastest growing components over the last decades and has gained further momentum in the wake of the financial crisis. The paper examines the development of and possible prospects for Islamic finance, with a special focus on Europe. It compares Islamic and conventional finance, particularly as concerns risks associated with the operations of respective institutions, as well as corporate governance. The paper also analyses empirical evidence comparing Islamic and conventional financial institutions with regard to their: (i) efficiency and profitability; and (ii) stability and resilience. Finally, the paper considers the conduct of monetary policy in an Islamic banking context. This is not uncomplicated given the fact that interest rates – normally a cornerstone of monetary policy – are prohibited under Islamic finance. Liquidity management issues are thus discussed here, with particular reference to the euro area. JEL Classification: G21, G28, G34, K21, L4 |
| Keywords: | central bank monetary policy and regulations, Financial Institutions, Globalisation, slamic finance |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:20130146&r=cwa |
| By: | Iza Lejárraga |
| Abstract: | Countries embarking on trade negotiations are not only seeking increased market access, but also, reduced market opacity. This study distils the most progressive practices for promoting regulatory transparency in over one hundred regional trade agreements (RTAs) concluded by OECD and large emerging economies over the last decade. While there is a lively discussion on strengthening transparency in the World Trade Organization (WTO), scant attention has been paid to the evolution of corresponding disciplines in RTAs. And yet, this study finds that RTAs can be credited for introducing instruments that not only deepen existing multilateral transparency commitments (“WTO-plus”), but expand them to new areas that do not have precedents in WTO agreements (“WTO-beyond”). In particular, the paper illuminates a number of options that may be useful for policy-makers to consider in their efforts to reinforce transparency and predictability in international trade policy. Most of the transparency mechanisms identified are being applied on a non-discriminatory basis, since they are often non-excludable and non-exhaustible. The implication is that, although WTO-plus transparency measures may be de jure preferential by virtue of being inscribed in an RTA, they are de facto being extended on a most-favoured nation (MFN) basis. Moreover, there is a considerable level of homogeneity in WTO-plus transparency provisions across a critical mass of RTAs, which may facilitate convergence and adoption at the multilateral level. |
| Keywords: | trade, WTO, regional trade agreements, free trade agreements, regulatory cooperation, preferential trade agreements, multilateralising regionalism, RTAs, anti-corruption, PTAs, FTAs, World Trade Organisation, transparency, anti-bribery |
| JEL: | F1 F10 F13 F15 |
| Date: | 2013–06–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaab:152-en&r=cwa |
| By: | Christian Henn; Chris Papageorgiou; Nicola Spatafora |
| Abstract: | This paper develops new, far more extensive estimates of export quality, covering 178 countries and hundreds of products over 1962–2010. Quality upgrading is particularly rapid during the early stages of development, with quality convergence largely completed as a country reaches upper middle-income status. There is significant cross-country heterogeneity in quality growth rates. Within any given product line, quality converges both conditionally and unconditionally to the world frontier; increases in institutional quality and human capital are associated with faster quality upgrading. In turn, faster growth in quality is associated with more rapid output growth. The evidence suggests that quality upgrading is best encouraged through a broadly conducive domestic environment, rather than sector-specific policies. Diversification is important to create new upgrading opportunities. |
| Keywords: | Exports;Developing countries;Manufacturing sector;Agricultural commodities;Agricultural exports;Cross country analysis;Exports; Product Quality; Upgrading; Developing Countries. |
| Date: | 2013–05–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/108&r=cwa |
| By: | Drobot, Elena; Shlepova, Kristina; Lisyanskay, Victoria; Prohorenko, Valeria; Eugene, Legatov |
| Abstract: | The research work contains analisys of migration processes in Leningrad region and Vyborg. It also contains results of sociological head count of local population attitude towards migrants. |
| Keywords: | Миграция, толерантность, Концепция государственной миграционной политики |
| JEL: | J61 J68 J71 J78 |
| Date: | 2013–09–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:49645&r=cwa |
| By: | Javorcik, Beata; Narciso, Gaia |
| Abstract: | This study documents some unintended consequences of the WTO membership by providing evidence on displacement of tariff evasion driven by the WTO accession process. We argue that implementation of Article VII of the GATT resulted in limiting discretion of customs officials in terms of assessing unit values of goods. While prior to the WTO accession, officials were free to use minimum or reference prices, after their country joined the WTO they were mandated to accept the invoice issued by the exporter. This limited the scope for negotiation between importers and customs officials and their ability to misrepresent import prices. This institutional reform has effectively shut down one channel of import duty evasion. Dishonest importers have responded by relying more heavily on alternative evasion channels, such as undercounting quantities and product misclassification. We formally test these hypotheses using data on 15 countries which joined the WTO between 1996 and 2008. We calculate the discrepancy in the unit values of imports as reported by the exporter and the importer and find that there is a positive relationship between the tariff rate and misrepresentation of import prices prior to the accession. This relationship disappears after the country joins the WTO. However, at the same time we find that removing the opportunity to underreport unit values has induced importers to underreport quantities. We find that in the post-accession period there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between underreporting of import quantities and the tariff rate. Further, we find that the relationship between the tariff on similar products and underreporting quantities becomes stronger after the accession, which is suggestive of product misclassification becoming more widespread. |
| Keywords: | import duties; tax evasion; WTO |
| JEL: | F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9592&r=cwa |