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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Yury Bobylev (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Oil and gas production remain the core sector of Russia economy, which has a leading role in generating federal budget revenue and this country’s balance of trade. The factors that exerted the most significant influence on the development of the oil and gas sector of the Russian economy in 2012 were the situation on the world oil market; the situation on the European gas market; and the objective deterioration of the conditions for the extraction of oil and natural gas, which is associated with a declining production at the ‘old’ deposits and the considerably higher costs of the development of new ones, especially in unpopulated areas with no infrastructure.. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, oil world prices, oil production structure, oil and gas exports, tax regulation of the oil and gas sector |
| JEL: | L71 L72 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:151&r=cwa |
| By: | Konstantin Kazenin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The author deals with the a wide scope of issues related to the North Caucasus region of the Russian Federation. He provides an in depth analysis of the national movement as well as investment projects and local communities interest. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, North Caucasus |
| JEL: | R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:146&r=cwa |
| By: | Tatiana Klyachko (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | This paper deals with issues related to the education system. The author focuses on the latest legislation adopted by the government and reorganization of its institutions. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, educational institutions |
| JEL: | I21 I22 I23 I24 I25 I28 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:162&r=cwa |
| By: | Sergey Prikhodko (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Nadezhda Volovik (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Galina Balandina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the normative and legal basis which regulates Russian customs and tariff policy. The authors analyze the features of customs and tariff regulation in Russia and main directions of its improvement in the medium term perspective. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, foreign trade, Russia's foreign trade regulations |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F19 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:168&r=cwa |
| By: | Andrei Alaev (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Arseny Mamedov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Vladimir Nazarov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | This paper deals with the issue of intergovernmental fiscal relations and subnational finances in Russia. The authors focus on the issue of subnational budgets in 2012, financial support from the federal budget. The point out to how the federal authorities stimulate the constitutent territories on the Russian Federation. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, fiscal relations, subnational finances, federal budget, road funds, subnational budgets |
| JEL: | H5 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:148&r=cwa |
| By: | Tamim Bayoumi; Mika Saito; Jarkko Turunen |
| Abstract: | With global supply chains, any value added or production task can be traded as part of goods. This means that competitiveness can be measured either in terms of “tasks†(Bems and Johnson, 2012), or goods, but with goods prices reflecting the cost of tasks embedded in those goods. We show that when measuring competitiveness in goods, the formula used in computing the real effective exchange rates at the IMF (Bayoumi, Lee, and Jayanthi, 2005) needs to be expressed in terms of the price of value added and needs an additional term, which captures a gain or loss in competitiveness of goods due to outsourcing. |
| Keywords: | Global competitiveness;Emerging markets;International trade;Real effective exchange rates;Economic models;Real Effective Exchange Rate; Global Supply Chains |
| Date: | 2013–05–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/100&r=cwa |
| By: | Svetlana Misikhina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Rapid economic growth early in the 2000s was accompanied by high growth rates in personal income. Personal real income grew up by 2.5 times as inequality increased insignificantly (Gini index was 0.42 in 2011 against 0.4 in 2000). In the first decade of the 21st century, the subsistence minimum increased mainly in response to its indexation to the consumer price index growth rate, thereby increasing the real personal income to subsistence minimum ratio (from 1.89 times in 2000 to 3.32 times in 2010). As a result, population with a substandard per capita money income and poverty level reduced by 2.3-2.4 times from the period between 2000 and 2010. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, personal income, poverty, consumption |
| JEL: | I31 I32 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:163&r=cwa |
| By: | Enrico Spolaore; Romain Wacziarg |
| Abstract: | What obstacles prevent the most productive technologies from spreading to less developed economies from the world's technological frontier? In this paper, we seek to shed light on this question by quantifying the geographic and human barriers to the transmission of technologies. We argue that the intergenerational transmission of human traits, particularly culturally transmitted traits, has led to divergence between populations over the course of history. In turn, this divergence has introduced barriers to the diffusion of technologies across societies. We provide measures of historical and genealogical distances between populations, and document how such distances, relative to the world's technological frontier, act as barriers to the diffusion of development and of specific innovations. We provide an interpretation of these results in the context of an emerging literature seeking to understand variation in economic development as the result of factors rooted deep in history. |
| JEL: | O1 O11 O33 O43 O57 |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19361&r=cwa |
| By: | Francesco Grigoli; Javier Kapsoli |
| Abstract: | Public health spending is low in emerging and developing economies relative to advanced economies and health outputs and outcomes need to be substantially improved. Simply increasing public expenditure in the health sector, however, may not significantly affect health outcomes if the efficiency of this spending is low. This paper quantifies the inefficiency of public health expenditure and the associated potential gains for emerging and developing economies using a stochastic frontier model that controls for the socioeconomic determinants of health, and provides country-specific estimates. The results suggest that African economies have the lowest efficiency. At current spending levels, they could boost life expectancy up to about five years if they followed best practices. |
| Keywords: | Government expenditures;Health care;Emerging markets;Developing countries;Economic models;Health expenditure, efficiency, emerging economies, developing economies |
| Date: | 2013–08–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/187&r=cwa |
| By: | Karthik Muralidharan; Ketki Sheth |
| Abstract: | Recruiting female teachers is frequently suggested as a policy option for improving girls' education outcomes in developing countries, but there is surprisingly little evidence on the effectiveness of such a policy. We study gender gaps in learning outcomes, and the effectiveness of female teachers in reducing these gaps using a large, representative, annual panel data set on learning outcomes in rural public schools in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh. We report six main results in this paper. (1) We find a small but significant negative trend in girls' test scores in both math (0.02σ/year) and language (0.01σ/year) as they progress through the public primary school system; (2) Using five years of panel data, school-grade and student gender by grade fixed effects, we find that both male and female teachers are more effective at teaching students of their own gender; (3) However, female teachers are more effective overall, resulting in girls' test scores improving by an additional 0.036σ in years when they are taught by a female teacher, with no adverse effects on boys when they are taught by female teachers; (4) The overall gains from having a female teacher are mainly attributable to their greater effectiveness at improving math test scores than male teachers (especially for girls); (5) We find no effect of having a same-gender teacher on student attendance, suggesting that the mechanism for the impact on learning outcomes is not on the extensive margin of increased school participation, but on the intensive margin of more effective classroom interactions; (6) Finally, the increasing probability of having a male teacher in higher grades can account for around 10-20% of the negative trend we find in girls' test scores as they move to higher grades. |
| JEL: | I21 J16 O15 |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19341&r=cwa |
| By: | Beck, Thorsten |
| Abstract: | This paper offers a critical survey of the literature on the role of financial deepening in economic development, focusing on the role of government. Specifically, I distinguish between the policy view that relates financial sector development to an array of necessary policies and institutions, the historic view that relates financial sector development to historic and cultural factors, and the politics view that explains financial sector development as the result of political conflicts and decisions. These three views of financial sector deepening imply a different role for government. I discuss examples from the developed and developing world and repercussions for current reform discussions. |
| Keywords: | economic growth; financial crisis; financial development; government policies |
| JEL: | G1 G2 O16 |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9597&r=cwa |
| By: | Lee, Neil; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés |
| Abstract: | The creative industries have long been seen as an innovative sector. More recent research posits that creative occupations are also a fundamental, but overlooked, driver of innovation. Theory also suggests cities are important for both creative industries and occupations, with urban environments helping firms innovate. Yet little empirical work has considered the links between creative industries, occupations, cities and innovation at the firm level. This paper addresses this gap using a sample of over 9,000 UK SMEs. Our results stress that creative industries firms are more likely to introduce original product innovations, but not those learnt from elsewhere. Creative occupations, however, appear a more robust general driver of innovation. We find no support for the hypothesis that urban creative industries firms are particularly innovative. However, creative occupations are used in cities to introduce product innovations learnt elsewhere. The results suggest future work needs to seriously consider the importance of occupations in empirical studies of innovation. |
| Keywords: | Cities; Creative industries; Creative occupations; Innovation; Learning |
| JEL: | O31 O38 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9598&r=cwa |
| By: | Georgy Malginov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Alexander Radygin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Russia’s Government has adopted no other privatization programs over the last two years, as it did in the 2000s, since the Forecast Plan (Program) for the Federal Property and the Guidelines of Federal Property Privatization for 2011-2013 was adopted in November 2010. However, it is these documents that contained numerical data on federal state unitary enterprises (FSUEs) and joint stock companies (JSCs) in which the Russian Federation had a participating interest as of the beginning of a calendar year. Therefore, there is no sufficient information for making an impartial assessment of the dynamics of the foregoing components in the public sector in 2012. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, privatization, public sector, public sector in the economy, structural policy |
| JEL: | H82 K11 L32 L33 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:153&r=cwa |
| By: | Nicholas Crafts (Dept of Economics, University of Warwick); Kevin H. O'Rourke (All Souls College, Oxford) |
| Abstract: | This paper surveys the experience of economic growth in the 20th century with a focus on technological change at the frontier together with issues related to success and failure in catch-up growth. A detailed account of growth performance based on historical national accounts data is given and is accompanied by a review of growth accounting evidence on the sources of economic growth. The key features of our analysis of divergence in growth outcomes are an emphasis on the importance of ‘directed’ technical change, of institutional quality, and of geography. We provide brief case studies of the experience of individual countries to illustrate these points. |
| Keywords: | catch-up growth; divergence; growth accounting; technical change. |
| JEL: | N10 O33 O43 O47 |
| Date: | 2013–09–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nuf:esohwp:_117&r=cwa |
| By: | Axel Löffler; Gunther Schnabl (Institute for Economic Policy, University of Leipzig); Franziska Schobert |
| Abstract: | Given low interest rates in the large industrial countries and buoyant capital inflows into the emerging markets East Asian central banks have accumulated large stocks of foreign reserves. As the resulting easing of monetary conditions has become a threat to domestic price and financial stability, the East Asian central banks have embarked on substantial sterilization operations to absorb what we call 'surplus liquidity' from the domestic banking systems. This has brought the East Asian central banks into debtor positions versus the domestic banking systems. We show based on a central bank loss function that given buoyant capital inflows and exchange rate stabilization the absorption of surplus liquidity leads either to financial repression, or rising inflation or both. Assuming that a debtor central bank moved towards a freely floating exchange rate to gain monetary policy independence, we show that monetary policy independence is undermined by sterilization costs and revaluation losses on foreign reserves. |
| Keywords: | Debtor Central Banks, Monetary Policy Autonomy, Sterilization, Exchange Rate Regime, East Asia |
| JEL: | E52 E58 F31 |
| Date: | 2013–08–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hlj:hljwrp:48-2013&r=cwa |
| By: | Przemyslaw Kowalski; Max Büge |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes new empirical evidence on the relationship between productivity and international trade. This is accomplished using an econometric approach that combines input-output and productivity data, which allows a more detailed tracking of the relationship between trade in intermediate and final products and productivity in countries at different stages of economic development. The results show that various forms of trade integration strongly support productivity in emerging economies. Exporting final products, importing intermediates for domestic production and re-exporting are all associated with higher productivity levels, pointing to the particular importance for this country grouping of being able to integrate into regional and global value chains. Our results emphasise also important linkages between different economic sectors and call for broad-based approaches to facilitating integration with foreign intermediate inputs and final products markets. |
| Keywords: | international trade, productivity, global value chains, emerging economies, intermediate imports, developing economies |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F43 |
| Date: | 2013–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaab:158-en&r=cwa |
| By: | Polat, Sezgin (Galatasaray University Economic Research Center) |
| Abstract: | In this article, I estimate the premium associated with fatal and non-fatal risk within broad industry categories, using official figures provided by the Ministry of Labor and Social Security and wage data from the 2010 and 2011 Household Labor Force Surveys. The results show only positive and significant fatal risk premiums in the manufacturing sector, whereas injury risk premiums exist in both the manufacturing and industry-wide samples. When wage heterogeneity is allowed, fatal risk compensation increases along the distribution, while that of injury risk follows an inverse-u pattern. Compared to similar country cases, the VSL and VSI estimates are relatively small and not significant for low wage earners. Industry averages show that longer working hours are correlated with accidents rates which implies the importance of firm heterogeneity and institutional factors on the high level and variance, particularly for Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Value of a statistical life; Value of a statistical injury; Hedonic wages; Quantile regression |
| JEL: | J17 J28 |
| Date: | 2013–09–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:giamwp:2013_011&r=cwa |
| By: | Troy Matheson |
| Abstract: | The global financial crisis was a stark reminder of the importance of cross-country linkages in the global economy. We document growth synchronization across a diverse group of 185 countries covering 7 regions, and pay particular attention to the period around the global financial crisis. A dynamic factor model is used to decompose each country’s growth into contributions from global, regional, and idiosyncratic shocks. We find a high degree of global synchronization over 1990 to 2011, particularly across advanced economies. Examining the period around the global financial crisis, we find global shocks had large and widespread effects on growth, with more diversity in growth experiences in the early part of the recovery. In a recursive experiment, we find rising global growth synchronization just prior to the crisis, largely resulting from a shift in the importance of global shocks between countries. In contrast, the crisis period caused a much more widespread increase in growth synchronization, and was followed by a similarly pervasive decrease in synchronization in the early recovery. |
| Keywords: | Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009;Economic growth;External shocks;Financial crisis;Economic models;Cross country analysis;Globalization, Financial Crisis, Growth Synchronization |
| Date: | 2013–03–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/76&r=cwa |
| By: | Alexander Novikov; Nino Kordzakhia |
| Abstract: | In the context of dealing with financial risk management problems it is desirable to have accurate bounds for option prices in situations when pricing formulae do not exist in the closed form. A unified approach for obtaining upper and lower bounds for Asian-type options, including options on VWAP, is proposed in this paper. The bounds obtained are applicable to the continuous and discrete-time frameworks for the case of time-dependent interest rates. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the accuracy of the bounds. |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1309.2383&r=cwa |
| By: | Tom Coupé; Hannah Vakhitova |
| Abstract: | Ukraine is a migration-intensive country, with an estimated 1.5-2 million labour migrants (about 5% of the working-age population). Slightly over a half of these migrants travel for work to the EU. This study discusses the impact of this large pool of migrants on both the sending and receiving countries. It also assesses how liberalisation of the EU visa regime, something that the EU is currently negotiating with Ukraine, will affect the stream of Ukrainian labour migrants to EU countries. Our study suggests that the number of tourists will increase substantially, whereas the increase in the number of labour migrants is unlikely to be very large. We also suggest that the number of legal migrants is likely to increase, but at the same time the numer of illegal migrants will decline because currently only a third of migrants from Ukraine have both residence and work permits in the EU, while about a quarter of them stay there illegally. |
| Keywords: | Labour Economics, Labour Markets, Labour Mobility, Ukraine |
| JEL: | D78 F22 F24 I25 J01 J15 J40 J61 J83 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sec:cnstan:0464&r=cwa |
| By: | Ioan Carabenciov; Charles Freedman; Roberto Garcia-Saltos; Douglas Laxton; Ondra Kamenik; Petar Manchev |
| Abstract: | This is the sixth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add three more regions and make a number of other changes to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, euro area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. |
| Keywords: | Forecasting models;Real effective exchange rates;Interest rates;External shocks;Unemployment;Demand;Spillovers;World Economic Outlook;Macroeconomic Modeling, Bayesian Estimation, Monetary Policy |
| Date: | 2013–04–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/87&r=cwa |
| By: | John S L McCombie (Cambridge Centre for Economic and Public Policy, Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge); Marta Spreafico (DISCE, Università Cattolica) |
| Abstract: | Despite the considerable interest in the concept of human development, there has been little research on the political determinants of its dimensions. This paper investigates the role played by the type of political systems on the non-income components of human development. In particular it tests the hypothesis that it is not only democratic countries that enhance spending on health and education, but this might be true of autocratic regimes. The hypothesis is tested for the former Soviet Republics. It is found that expenditure on the social provision of health and education increases with both the degree of democracy and autocracy. |
| Keywords: | governing authority, human development, political regimes, public expenditure on health and education, panel analysis |
| JEL: | I10 I20 H51 H52 C33 |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie5:ispe0066&r=cwa |
| By: | Aruga, Kentaka |
| Abstract: | This paper investigated whether the effect of the shale gas revolution on the U.S. gas market is still a domestic phenomenon or this revolution is influencing the global natural gas market. We used the Bai-Perron test to identify the break date related to the shale gas revolution and tested the price linkages among the U.S., European and Japanese gas markets for the periods before and after this break date. The result indicated that the U.S. gas market had a price linkage with the international market for the period before the revolution affected the U.S. gas production, but this price linkage disappeared for the period after the revolution. This result implied that the U.S. gas market became independent after the shale gas revolution occurred and that the price linkage between the U.S. and international gas market became weaker after the shale gas revolution occurred. |
| Keywords: | shale gas revolution, natural gas market, structural break |
| JEL: | Q4 |
| Date: | 2013–05–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:49545&r=cwa |