|
on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Cheong, Inkyo (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement seems to have reached a crossroads: it could either be a building block toward achieving economic integration in Asia and the Pacific, or trigger the formation of two large trade blocs which will work independently of one another. When the Government of Japan announced its participation in the TPP negotiations in March 2013, the partnership began to attract greater interest from other East Asian countries. This paper analyzes the progress and major issues regarding the current TPP negotiations which are being led by the United States, and draws implications for East Asian economic integration. |
| Keywords: | trans-pacific partnership; tpp; republic of korea; economic integration; asia pacific; east asian countries |
| JEL: | F15 F53 O53 |
| Date: | 2013–07–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0428&r=cwa |
| By: | Muhammad, Javid; Ghulam Fatima, Sharif |
| Abstract: | In this study, we analyzed the effects of financial development, per capita real income, the square of per capita real income, per capita energy consumption and openness on per capita CO2 emissions in the context of Pakistan during 1971-2011. The bound F-test for cointegration yielded evidence of a long-term relationship among these variables. The results confirm the existence of an environmental Kuznets curve in Pakistan for both the short and long term. This finding indicates that at the initial stage of development, the level of CO2 increases with income, and after some threshold level of income, this relationship may change from positive to negative as more efficient infrastructure and energy-efficient technology are implemented during the development of the country. The findings of this study also reveal a significantly positive sign for the coefficient of financial development, suggesting that financial development has occurred at the expense of environmental quality. The findings of this study indicate that the key contributing factors of carbon emissions in Pakistan are income, energy consumption and financial development. In addition, the openness variable has no significant influence on carbon emission in either the short or long term. |
| Keywords: | EKC; Energy; CO2 |
| JEL: | Q4 Q56 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:48287&r=cwa |
| By: | Motkuri, Venkatanarayana; Bhagavatula, Sridhar |
| Abstract: | Andhra Pradesh has been experiencing increasing energy deficits since 2004-05. Energy deficit has increased from a negligible 0.7% in 2004-05 to 6.6% in 2009-10 and to a whopping 22.8% in 2012-13 (as per load generation balance report 2012-13, Central Electricity Authority, 2013). On the whole, the state has not taken measure for the supply side management as much as that of the demand side management of the power sector. State doesn’t have its reserve of generating capacity to fall back on for the rising demand. the energy requirement in the state is expected to increase from around 84 billion units (in 2011-12) to over 173 billion units by the end of 2020-21. The increase is expected to be driven mainly by industrial sector whose percentage consumption is expected to increase from 32% (in 2011-12) to over 44% in 2020-21. Whether the State will be able to meet such a rise in demand? This calls for Supply Side Management. Thus, the Government of Andhra Pradesh must relook at its strategies, especially supply side management, and come up with a comprehensive energy policy for the state with a strong linkage with policy execution. |
| Keywords: | Power, Energy, Power Generation, Power Distribution, Andhra Pradesh, Industry, energy Policy |
| JEL: | Q20 Q30 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q48 |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:48361&r=cwa |
| By: | Bakis, Ozan (Galatasaray University Economic Research Center); Polat, Sezgin (Galatasaray University Economic Research Center) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the evolution of wage inequality over the last decade in Turkey using household labor force survey between 2002 and 2010. During the period between 2002 and 2004, the relative supply of more educated workers to less educated workers stayed almost constant while their relative wages have decreased in the benefit of less educated workers. However, in the second period between 2004 and 2010 the relative supply of more educated workers to less educated workers had risen while their relative wages remained constant or kept increasing in the benefit of more educated workers. Both of these developments calls for factors other than those implied by a simple supply-demand model such as skill-biased technical change or minimum wage changes. The decomposition of wage inequality reveals that price(wage) eect is dominant over the composition particularly in the period between 2002 and 2004. Our results show that the real minimum wage hike in 2004 corresponds to a major institutional change which proves to be welfare increasing in terms of wage inequality. The upper-tail (90/50) wage inequality decreased between 2002 and 2004 and stayed constant thereafter. The lower-tail (50/10) wage inequality decreased smoothly between 2002 and 2010. Our findings provide another evidence to the institutional view. |
| Keywords: | Wage inequality; Wage structure; Labor Demand; Decomposition; Turkey |
| JEL: | J23 J31 |
| Date: | 2013–07–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:giamwp:2013_009&r=cwa |
| By: | B. Sudhakara Reddy (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); P. Balachandra (Indian Institute of Science) |
| Abstract: | The study investigates if the present pattern of urban development in India in the creation of mega cities sustainable. This has been done by comparing the Indian cities Mumbai and Bangalore with sustainable mega cities of developed countries (Shanghai, London, and Singapore) using indicators. The objectives of the study are: (i) developing sustainable urban indicator variables spanning all the relevant sectors of a typical mega city, (ii) developing a benchmark sustainable indicator-base for a selected mega city, (iii) developing the database for Mumbai and Bangalore by adopting the same methodology and same indicators, (iv) comparing and evaluating the indicator data with the benchmark indicator database using "gap analysis" approach, and (v) suggesting appropriate policy measures and implementation strategies to bridge identified gaps to attain the goal of sustainable urban system. Economic, Environmental, social and institutional indicators are proposed to be examined in the context of resource utilization. The indicators represent a primary tool to provide guidance for policy makers and to potentially assist in decision-making and monitoring local strategies/plans. The outcome of the study will contribute to the design of policies, tools, and approaches essential for planning to attain the goal of sustainable development and the social cohesion of metropolitan regions. |
| Keywords: | Benchmarking, Gap analysis, Indicator, Sustainability, Urban |
| JEL: | Q4 L94 L95 L98 |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2013-008&r=cwa |
| By: | Kevin S. Nell (Center for Economics and Finance, Faculty of Economics, University of Porto) |
| Abstract: | This paper re-examines the role of physical capital accumulation in the Indian economy over the period 1953-2010. As an alternative to the orthodox total factor productivity (TFP) view, the paper develops a combined TFP-capital accumulation hypothesis of growth transitions. The results show that the first phase of India’s faster-growing regime during 1980-2002 was mainly TFP driven. However, the large increase in uninvested profits accumulated during the first phase together with evidence of a sharp rise in the productivity of capital and an exogenous saving/investment rate implies that India had a significant amount of untapped long-run growth potential. Consistent with the prediction of the model, the growth surge experienced during 2003-2007 reflects the capital accumulation-driven part of the growth transition. Despite the turbulent years of the global financial crisis since 2008, the analysis suggests that physical capital accumulation will continue to be a driving force of India’s future growth performance. |
| Keywords: | physical capital accumulation, total factor productivity, Solow model, learning by doing model, growth, India, technical progress function |
| JEL: | C22 O4 O5 O41 O53 |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:por:cetedp:1313&r=cwa |
| By: | Shabbir, Safia; Iqbal, Javed; Hameed, Saima |
| Abstract: | Episodes of monetary contraction increases the risk premium of the enterprises which results in higher effective interest rate differential between market loans and subsidized loan; making these firms more reliant on subsidized loans. Since subsidies are easier to exploit and hard to administer. This study evaluates the subsidized lending schemes of Pakistan using information on risk premium and effective interest rate differential of 174 exporting corporate firms over thirteen years (1999-2011). Our results shows that export finance schemes (EFS) helped promoting exports, while long term financing facility (LTFF) facilitated fixed capital formation of these corporate firms. Additionally, using matched sample with loan level data from eCIB, we found that during the phases of high interest rate differential enterprises substituted their short term market loans with subsidized loans (export finance); while no such substitution is observed between long term loans and LTFF. |
| Keywords: | Risk Premium, Interest rate differential, Subsidized lending |
| JEL: | E43 G32 H20 |
| Date: | 2013–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:48250&r=cwa |
| By: | Pottenger, Mike (University of Melbourne); Leigh, Andrew (Australian National University) |
| Abstract: | Outside the US, little is known of long-run trends in executive compensation. We fill this gap by studying BHP, a resources giant that has long been one of the largest companies on the Australian stock market. From 1887 to 2013, trends in CEO and director remuneration (relative to average earnings) follow a U-shape. This matches the pattern for US executive compensation, Australian top incomes, and (for the past two decades) average trends in executive compensation in top Australian firms. Like the US, Australia experienced a post-war 'great compression' prior to the recent 'great divergence'. |
| Keywords: | executive remuneration, inequality, income distribution |
| JEL: | D31 J31 |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7486&r=cwa |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | <UL> <LI>In most OECD countries, newly arrived 15-year-old immigrant students show poorer reading performance than immigrant students who arrived in their new country when they were younger than five. </LI> <LI>Students who emigrated from less-developed countries where the home language differs from their new language of instruction are particularly vulnerable to the “late-arrival” penalty in reading performance. </LI> <LI>Immigrant students from countries with similar levels of development and the same language as the host country do not suffer any late-arrival penalty at all. </LI></UL> |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduddd:29-en&r=cwa |
| By: | Scott Bowman; Patrick Conway (The Treasury) |
| Abstract: | The People’s Republic of China has become increasingly important to the New Zealand economy since the start of economic liberalisation in China more than 30 years ago, particularly in the past decade. This paper is the first of three looking at the impact of China on the New Zealand economy. It examines China’s recent economic expansion and traces the channels through which this expansion and the subsequent increased demand for commodities have impacted on the New Zealand economy, concentrating on exports in the past decade. The second paper (Bowman & Conway, 2013) examines the outlook for China’s impact on the New Zealand economy through these same channels. The third paper (Osborn & Vehbi, 2013) quantifies the impact of China’s expansion and commodity demand on the New Zealand economy through the framework of an econometric model. This paper concludes that China’s expansion has had a large positive impact on the New Zealand economy, mainly through increased merchandise exports, but also through services exports, merchandise imports and other channels. Merchandise exports to China were equivalent to 3.3% of New Zealand’s nominal GDP in 2012, up from 0.8% in 2000. The trend increase in exports to China since 2000 has mainly been a result of higher volumes, with higher prices providing a boost to incomes. The increase in exports to China has generally not come at the expense of lower export volumes to other markets. Since 2001, dairy and forestry exports have outperformed the rest of the economy, contributing 7.9 percentage points to expenditure GDP growth, versus an expected contribution of only 1.9 percentage points if they grew at the same rate as the economy as a whole. Chinese demand has also been the main driver of increased dairy and forestry production recently and they have also outperformed the rest of the economy. Since 2008, the dairy and forestry industries have contributed 2.1 percentage points to real production GDP growth versus an expected contribution of 0.2 percentage points. |
| Keywords: | China; New Zealand; commodities; dairy; forestry; merchandise trade |
| JEL: | F14 F43 |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nzt:nztwps:13/15&r=cwa |
| By: | Gnidchenko, Andrey |
| Abstract: | We consider basic characteristics of foreign and Russian motion pictures (budget, box office revenues, effectiveness, “Kinopoisk” rating, number of views, film duration, genre) in dynamics and examine their linkages. We also compare the Russian market for national and foreign films. Then, we discuss basic characteristics across film directors and genres |
| Keywords: | Motion pictures’ characteristics, budget, box office revenues, effectiveness, “Kinopoisk” rating, number of views, film duration, film directors, genres |
| JEL: | L82 Z10 |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:48391&r=cwa |
| By: | Arief Anshory Yusuf (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University); Irlan Adiyatma Rum (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University) |
| Abstract: | Using a long series of household level survey data,we calculated various indicators of income inequality to look at the long-run evolution of inequality in Indonesia for the period of 1990 to 2012. We found that over that particular period inequality in Indonesia has been rising quite significantly. However, the rise in the inequality is predominantly driven by the rising trend for the last 10 years after the Asian Financial Crisis or in the era of political reform and democratization. Before that period, inequality was relatively stable at the moderate level. The magnitude of the more recent rising inequality is rather spectacular. In ten years toward 2012, Gini coefficient and the decile dispersion ratio has increased by roughly 20% and 50% respectively. The rising inequality are more or less common across regional dimension, urban-rural or Java and non-Java regions. Moreover, we also found an inequality convergence across provinces in which the change in inequality was faster, the lower the initial level of the province's inequality. We found, however, no strong evidences of increasing inter-regional inequality in Indonesia for the same period. |
| Keywords: | inequality, Indonesia |
| JEL: | D63 |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unp:wpaper:201314&r=cwa |
| By: | James Zuccollo; Sholeh Maani; Bill Kaye-Blake; Lulu Zeng (NZIER; University of Auckland Business School) |
| Abstract: | How do private returns to tertiary education in New Zealand compare internationally? According to the latest OECD measures, the private rate of return for New Zealand is 8.9%, compared to an OECD average of 12.4%, placing New Zealand toward the bottom of the OECD ranking. The aim of this study is to better understand the reasons for that gap and determine whether the low returns could be considered as problems amenable to policy interventions. We identify a number of measurement issues with the OECD standardisation. We develop a decomposition approach and provide a series of decompositions of the New Zealand-OECD gap. Our analysis shows that about half of the gap in New Zealand’s private returns can be explained by the way OECD private tertiary returns are measured (eg, old tax rates, New Zealand’s higher employment rates, and compositional issues which have not been controlled for in the OECD analysis such as the mix of degrees and graduates in New Zealand) rather than a “real” gap. However, once those factors are taken into account there remains a gap between New Zealand and the OECD average. We identify a number of endowment, policy, and decision-related contributing factors, and identify directions for future research. |
| Keywords: | Private Returns; Higher Education; Earnings; OECD Index; Decomposition, Measurement Issues |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J38 B49 |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nzt:nztwps:13/10&r=cwa |
| By: | Diego Comin; Mikhail Dmitriev; Esteban Rossi-Hansberg |
| Abstract: | We study technology diffusion across countries and over time empirically. We …find signi…cant evidence that technology diffuses slower to locations that are farther away from adoption leaders. This effect is stronger across rich countries and also when measuring distance along the south- north dimension. A simple theory of human interactions can account for these empirical …ndings. The theory suggests that the e¤ect of distance should vanish over time, a hypothesis that we con…rm in the data, and that distinguishes technology from other ‡ows like goods or investments. We then structurally estimate the model. The parameter governing the frequency of interactions is larger for newer and network-based technologies and for the median technology the frequency of interactions decays by 73% every 1000 Kms. Overall, we document the signi…cant role that geography plays in determining technology diffusion across countries. |
| Date: | 2013–03–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:thk:rnotes:27&r=cwa |
| By: | Fabling, Richard; Gemmell, Norman; Kneller, Richard; Sanderson, Lynda |
| Abstract: | Effective marginal tax rates can be very different from the statutory rate and vary across firms, reflecting such factors as the extent and nature of taxable deductions (losses, depreciation), asset and ownership structures, and debt/equity financing. We estimate firm-specific EMTRs and related user cost of capital (UCC) measures allowing for shareholder-level taxation using data for 2000-2010 from the Longitudinal Business Database. Examining distributions of various UCC measures we find substantial firm-level heterogeneity; systematic changes as a result of tax reforms between 2004 and 2011; and systematic differences between foreignowned and domestically-owned firms. Choices among alternative UCC measures make a difference to interpretations. |
| Keywords: | Tax rates, Taxable deductions, Companies, |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vuw:vuwcpf:2854&r=cwa |
| By: | Nguyen, Thi Minh Hieu; Nguyen, Thi Huong Giang; Vu, Thi Minh Ngoc; Nguyen, Viet Duc |
| Abstract: | This paper examines impacts of income from informal employment and informal sector employment on poverty in Vietnam to define whether the informal economy is an accelerator or a decelerator of poverty. Using data from Vietnam Household Living Standard Surveys, we find that although income from informal sources does not account for a large proportion to total income of the poor households in comparison with the non-poorhouseholds, it significantly contributes to poverty reduction. Without earnings from informal sources, 33.4 per cent of the surveyed households in 2010 live under the poverty line and this rate is only 10.34 per cent if informal income is added up. Both probit and quantile analysis affirms that informal earnings significantly mitigate poverty. Interesting findings from quantile regression are that informal earnings have divergent effects across distribution of household income. Particularly, it is a factor reducing poverty in poor households but it negatively affects the economic capacity of the rich households. The policy implication derived from empirical results is that poverty program should be associated with supporting policy for informal employees with low income so that they can improve their living standards. |
| Keywords: | informal economy, poverty |
| JEL: | I32 O17 |
| Date: | 2013–07–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:48378&r=cwa |
| By: | Arief Anshory Yusuf (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University); Irlan Adiyatma Rum (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University) |
| Abstract: | Using a long series of household level survey data and more information on regional variation in the poor's living cost and inflation, we estimated the proportion of people living below 2005 PPP $2 a day. We found that for the period of 1990 to 2012, the $2 poverty incidence has been declining at an average rate of 2.2% per year leaving only 36.5% in 2012. The rate of the decline in the last ten years (or reformasi era, 2002-2012) has been faster (2.9% a year) than during the pre-reformasi era or the period of 1990-1996 (1.4% a year). This is in contrast to a rather slow rate of the decline in the poverty incidence with national poverty line during the reformasi era which was only 0.65% a year. We also found thatthe $2 poverty has been more concentrated among informal labor and agricultural workers. The difference between $2 poverty incidence in formal and informal labor was larger during the reformasiera, a sign that the informal labor has been rather left behind. During the reformasi era, the economic growth was a lot more income-inequalizing and a lot less pro-poor relative to growth during the period before the reformasiera. This applies to both the poor defined as those living below national poverty line or those living below $2 a day. |
| Keywords: | poverty, $2 per day, Indonesia |
| JEL: | J21 |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unp:wpaper:201313&r=cwa |
| By: | Pipit Pitriyan (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University); Adiatma Y.M Siregar (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University) |
| Abstract: | Indonesia significant progress in health outcomes is followed by significant issues, among them are the issues of inequities and inequalities. These two issues are known to be an important part in achieving plausible health outcome. This study attempts to observe disparity reduction and its acceleration rate in selected health indicators (i.e. access to improved water source and sanitation facility, first-child birth attended by health care worker) over a period of the last 15 years. We analyze the health indicators by clusters of expenditure quintile and regions (urban - rural, Java - non Java, KTI - non KTI). Our analyses have shown some key observations. First, the national figures show improvement for all indicators except for the percentage of population suffering from diarrhea (seemed worsening). However, the rate of improvement remained stagnant and there was no acceleration. Second, the gap reduction between the rich and the poor in terms of health access and status seemed to slow down or even widened during the post reformation era. Third, the health indicators movement trend by region did not seem to have a pattern and the gap between richer and poorer areas exist in some indicators and nonexistent in others (the widest gap is found between urban and rural areas.). Where it existed, however, the condition persisted along the period of observation. |
| Keywords: | inequality, inequity, health, Indonesia |
| JEL: | I14 I15 |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unp:wpaper:201316&r=cwa |
| By: | Denise R Osborn; Tugrul Vehbi (The Treasury) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a quantitative analysis of the impact on New Zealand of economic growth in China through the framework of an econometric model. The analysis compares the roles of China and the US both for growth in New Zealand and also for world commodity prices, the latter being important for New Zealand as an exporter of primary products. Finally, in the light of the increasing role of China in the world economy over the last two to three decades, the paper also investigates whether spillover effects from China to New Zealand have changed over this period. Using models estimated from the mid- 1980s to 2011, we find that growth spillovers from China are important for New Zealand, with estimates of the accumulated increase in domestic GDP from a one percent increase in output growth in China being in the range of around 0.2 to 0.4 percent. It is striking that growth spillovers are substantially greater from the US than from China, despite the latter's increasing importance in the world economy. Both domestic and foreign shocks have been important drivers of real exchange rate fluctuations, while the contribution of the latter has been relatively more important. The time-varying estimates provide some evidence of time-variation, with the greatest impact from China applying for about a decade from the mid-1990s, but also being relatively large in the latter part of our sample period. |
| Keywords: | C32, E32, F43, F44 |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nzt:nztwps:13/17&r=cwa |
| By: | Jose Manuel Roche |
| Abstract: | Important steps have been taken at international summits to set up goals and targets to improve the wellbeing of children worldwide. Now the world also has more and better data to monitor progress. This paper presents a new approach to monitoring progress in child poverty reduction based on the Alkire and Foster adjusted headcount ratio and an array of complementary techniques. A theoretical discussion is accompanied by an assessment of child poverty reduction in Bangladesh based on four rounds of the Demographic Household Survey (1997-2007). Emphasis is given to dimensional monotonicity and decomposability as desirable properties of multidimensional poverty measures. Complementary techniques for analysing changes over time are also illustrated, including the Shapley decomposition of changes in overall poverty, as well as a range of robustness tests and statistical significance tests. The results from Bangladesh illustrate the value added of these new tools and the information they provide for policy. The analysis reveals two paths to multidimensional poverty reduction - either decreasing the incidence of poverty or its intensity - and exposes an uneven distribution of national gains across geographical divisions. The methodology allows an integrated analysis of overall changes yet simultaneously examines progress in each region and in each dimension, retaining the positive features of dashboard approaches. The empirical evidence highlights the need to move beyond the headcount ratio towards new measures of child poverty that reflect the intensity of poverty and multiple deprivations that affect poor children at the same time. |
| Date: | 2013–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qeh:ophiwp:ophiwp057&r=cwa |
| By: | Scott Bowman; Patrick Conway (The Treasury) |
| Abstract: | The People’s Republic of China has become increasingly important to the New Zealand economy since the start of economic liberalisation in China more than 30 years ago, particularly in the past decade. This paper is the second of three looking at the impact of China on the New Zealand economy. The first paper (Bowman and Conway, 2013) examined China’s recent economic expansion and traced the channels through which this expansion has impacted on the New Zealand economy, concentrating on China’s demand for commodities. This paper examines the sustainability of China’s economic growth and demand for commodities, and the impact that China is likely to have on the New Zealand economy in the next decade. The third paper (Osborn and Vehbi, 2013) quantifies the impact of China’s past expansion and commodity demand on the New Zealand economy through the framework of an econometric model. This paper concludes that while there are cyclical risks to China’s economic performance in the medium term, these risks are manageable; China’s economic growth is likely to ease to a more stable and sustainable rate over the next decade compared to the previous decade. However, demand for commodities is likely to remain high over this period, as urbanisation continues and incomes grow faster than other trading partners. A gradual shift in the driver of economic growth from investment to consumption is likely to transfer demand from hard to soft commodities. Dairy and meat consumption per capita are expected to grow as incomes increase and combined with China’s large population will result in significant impacts on global markets. China’s shortage of agricultural land and water resources will limit its supply response and, along with concerns about the quality of domestic production, result in a reliance on imports of agricultural products. New Zealand’s reputation for producing quality products and its efficient supply chains, which are already well established, put it in a good position to benefit. China’s growing share of New Zealand exports will continue to increase its contribution to New Zealand’s economic growth, despite a slowdown in China’s growth. |
| Keywords: | China; New Zealand;; commodities; dairy; forestry; merchandise trade |
| JEL: | F14 F43 |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nzt:nztwps:13/16&r=cwa |
| By: | Coulibaly, Souleymane; Diaby, Mohamed |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes and reconciles macro and micro evidence on savings and factors that affect savings, as well as possible policy implications. At the aggregate level, the main question is how savings are affected by growth and macroeconomic policies and variables (fiscal policy, exchange rate, for example) and the breadth of financial markets. Some of these macro determinants can be reconciled with microeconomic evidence of the savings behavior of households. Using macroeconomic quarterly data and household survey data, the analysis explores the determinants of the savings rate at the macroeconomic and microeconomic levels, using the typical econometric models used in the literature (long-term co-integration relation and short-term error correction model for the macro determinants; linear multivariate models for the micro determinants). The long-term relationship indicates that a 10-percent increase in gross domestic product per capita would add 3.7 percentage points to the savings rate in the long run. The short-term relationship depicts a strong catch-up process to the long-run equilibrium, with quarterly changes in gross domestic product per capita and openness strongly correlated with quarterly changes in the savings rate. The characteristics of households that represent the volatility of expected income, such as education and access to borrowing or remittances, significantly impact saving rates. The macroeconomic and microeconomic analyses of the determinants of saving rates in Armenia point to three policy areas: the macroeconomic environment, the financial sector, and the role of remittances. |
| Keywords: | Access to Finance,Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets,Debt Markets,Rural Poverty Reduction |
| Date: | 2013–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6531&r=cwa |
| By: | Alexander Zimper (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | The financial sector of emerging economies in Africa is characterized by a non-competitive banking sector which dominates any direct participation of agents in asset markets. Based on a variant of Diamond and Dybvig's (1983) model of financial intermediation, we formally explain both stylized facts through market inexperience of agents in emerging economies. While experienced agents correctly predict future market clearing equilibrium prices, inexperienced agents are ignorant about future market equilibria. As a consequence, a monopolistic banking sector can exploit these agents because their only outside option is an autarkic investment project. |
| Keywords: | Emerging Economies, Demand Deposit Contract, Asset Market, Asymmetric Information |
| JEL: | O16 G14 G21 |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201334&r=cwa |
| By: | Doan, Tinh; Nguyen, Ha |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the roles of cost of labour input and competition on productivity dispersion in the Vietnamese manufacturing sector. We look at the effect accounting for labour input quality has on explaining productivity dispersion. This paper tests the hypothesis that mismeasurement of labour input may play a role in large productivity dispersion. We use the cost of labour input of firms as a proxy measure of labour input quality to examine whether incorporating this measure accounts for a part of the productivity dispersion. The paper also examines the role of competition in the extent of productivity dispersion. |
| Keywords: | productivity dispersion, competition, labour input, transition economies |
| JEL: | J24 L1 L25 P27 |
| Date: | 2013–07–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:48357&r=cwa |
| By: | Ross Guest (Griffith University) |
| Abstract: | This paper applies an overlapping generations model in order to evaluate the implications of intergenerational smoothing of New Zealand’s future fiscal costs. The analysis complements the New Zealand fiscal projections of Bell et al. (2010) and the New Zealand tax smoothing analysis in Davis and Fabling (2002). It allows for feedback effects of the tax rate on labour supply through both intratemporal and intertemporal effects which in turn feed back to fiscal projections via taxation revenue. Under Treasury’s sustainable debt projections, which implies convergence to a stable 20% net debt to GDP ratio, generations born prior to 1990 are worse off and those born after 2000 are better off (measured by the impact on their remaining lifetime income). However, the magnitudes of the impact on the remaining lifetime income of all generations are small – no greater that 0.7% under the Medium demographic scenario. Those born around 1960 fare the worst, while those born after 2020 fare the best. The losses to current generations are weighed up against the gains to future generations through the social welfare function. The results show that net social gains are possible provided the gains to future generations are given sufficient weight by a low rate of social time preference and a high rate of aversion to variability in aggregate consumption over time. The parameter values required to generate net social gains are close to the bounds of plausible values. The magnitudes of the net social gains/losses range from minus $90 to plus $94 per capita per year. |
| JEL: | H31 H32 J18 E21 |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nzt:nztwps:13/12&r=cwa |
| By: | Yoshiro Tsutsui (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University); Akiko Kamesaka (Aoyama Gakuin University); Oleksandr Movshuk (University of Toyama); Sayuri Shiraishi (Yokohama City University) |
| Abstract: | This paper is based on a questionnaire survey that examined gender differences with respect to forthcoming marriage, and to expected child birth. The following major results were identified: ‡@ Life satisfaction and subjective well-being were higher among people who planned to get married, as compared with the control group of unmarried individuals, or individuals with no marriage plans. A similar pattern was observed among individuals who expected a child, though the increase was less pronounced compared with the effect of marriage. ‡A In the case of forthcoming marriage, the vast majority of men were full-time workers, and the share was not affected by marriage. For women, the share was lower (at 73%), but similarly to men, the share did not change much by marriage. ‡B In prospective marriage, it was common to have favorite views about partnerfs personality, as compared with the control group. However, no clear difference could be identified in the perception of partnerfs personality in the case of prospective birth. ‡C Both marriage and childbirth did not lead to increased stress, while the degree of depression was lower compared with respective control groups. ‡D In couples, there was a tendency to choose a partner with a similar body type. ‡E For woman, the younger they were, the more likely they married men with higher income. For men, the younger they were, and with higher education level and income, the more likely they were to marry women with a matched hobby. |
| Keywords: | marriage, child birth, well-being, questionnaire survey, Japan |
| JEL: | I31 |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osk:wpaper:1314&r=cwa |