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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Gaurab Aryal; Dong-Hyuk Kim |
| Abstract: | We study the identification and estimation of first-price auction models with independent private values where bidders are risk averse and there is ambiguity about the valuation distribution. When bidders' preferences are represented by the maxmin expected utility of [Gilboa and Schmeidler, 1989], we provide sufficient conditions for nonparametric identification of the valuation distribution and bidders' attitude toward ambiguity, separately from the risk aversion (CRRA, CARA). We propose a semi-parametric method and apply it to two datasets, one from experimental auctions and the other from USFS timber auctions. We find, for both cases, that bidders are not only risk averse but also ambiguity averse. In addition, we consider the multiplier preferences of [Hansen and Sargent, 2001] and identify the valuation distribution using the same conditions, and show that normalizing, additionally, (any) one quantile of the value, e.g. upper bound of the support, is sufficient to identify the ambiguity parameter separately from the nonparametric utility. |
| Keywords: | first-price auction, identification, Bayesian econometrics, ambiguity aversion |
| JEL: | C11 C44 D44 E61 |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2013-607&r=cwa |
| By: | Yijuan Chen; Xiaojing Ma; Qiang Pan |
| Abstract: | We study the word-of mouth effect on movies with platform release, a common marketing strategy in the motion picture industry. We construct a theoretical model which shows that the word-of-mouth effect together with a sliding-percentage contract between the movie distributor and exhibitors gives rise to the usage of platform release. Using the data in the U.S. motion picture industry from 2000 to 2005, we quantify the word-of mouth sales and estimate the information transmission process in the movies featuring platform release. |
| Keywords: | Word-of-Mouth, Platform Release, U.S.Motion Picture Industry |
| JEL: | L82 M31 |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2013-608&r=cwa |
| By: | Graw, Valerie; Husmann (née Ladenburger), Christine |
| Abstract: | This mapping approach aims to make the marginalized and poor visible by identifying areas with difficult biophysical and socio-economic conditions. Mapping using different data sources and data types gives deeper insight into possible causal interlinkages and offers the opportunity for comprehensive analysis. The maps highlight areas where different dimensions of marginality overlap – the marginality hotspots – based on proxies for marginality dimensions representing different spheres of life. Furthermore, overlaying the marginality hotspots with the number of poor shows where most of the poor could be reached to help them to escape the spiral of poverty. Marginality hotspots can be found in particular in India and Nepal as well as in several countries in Central and Eastern Africa, such as Eritrea, Mozambique, Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Northern Sudan and large parts of Niger. Maps showing the overlap between marginality and poverty highlight that the largest number of marginalized poor are located in India and Bangladesh, as well as in Ethiopia, Southeastern Africa and some parts of Western Africa. |
| Keywords: | GIS, Marginality, Poverty Mapping, Hotspot Mapping, Spheres of Life, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ubonwp:147917&r=cwa |
| By: | O. Ashton Morgan; John C. Whitehead; William L. Huth; Gregory S. Martin; Richard Sjolander |
| Abstract: | A natural experiment setting is exploited to develop a unique dataset of oyster consumer actual and anticipated behavior immediately prior to and following the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Using data from a repeat sample of oyster consumers, a pre and post-spill revealed and stated preference model allows both a short and longer-term response to the spill to be investigated. Findings indicate that, as expected, the BP spill had a negative impact on oyster demand in terms of short-run actual behavior, although spill effects show signs of dissipating several months following the spill. However, by accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in the sample, findings further indicate that short and longer-term spill responses differ across consumer groups. For the larger consumer groups, the negative spill effects continue over the longer-term horizon, while other groups are either non-responsive or increase consumption following news of the spill. Key Words: Consumer behavior, BP oil spill, revealed and stated preference, latent class analysis |
| JEL: | Q51 Q10 Q22 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apl:wpaper:13-11&r=cwa |
| By: | Jon D. Samuels; Rodrigo Sekkel |
| Abstract: | A longstanding finding in the forecasting literature is that averaging forecasts from different models often improves upon forecasts based on a single model, with equal weight averaging working particularly well. This paper analyzes the effects of trimming the set of models prior to averaging. We compare different trimming schemes and propose a new one based on Model Confidence Sets that take into account the statistical significance of historical out-of-sample forecasting performance. In an empirical application of forecasting U.S. macroeconomic indicators, we find significant gains in out-of-sample forecast accuracy from our proposed trimming method. |
| Keywords: | Econometric and statistical methods |
| JEL: | C53 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:13-11&r=cwa |
| By: | Francesco Cannata (Bank of Italy); Marco Bevilacqua (Bank of Italy); Simone Enrico Casellina (Bank of Italy); Luca Serafini (Bank of Italy); Gianluca Trevisan (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | In December 2010 the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision published a set of new regulations for banks in response to the financial crisis. This paper aims at evaluating the possible effects of the new framework on banks’ available regulatory capital and risk-weighted assets and assessing their positioning with respect to future leverage and liquidity constraints. The evidence, based on the data collected from a representative sample of 13 Italian banking groups updated to 30 June 2012, show that capital and liquidity positions relatively to the Basel 3 targets have improved considerably over the last two years. Furthermore, compared to banks in other jurisdictions, Italian intermediaries are likely to be less affected by the reform, due to a business model more focused on credit intermediation. Importantly, the estimates cannot be interpreted as a forecast of capital and liquidity needs as they do not incorporate any assumption about future balance-sheet items or banks’ reactions to the changing regulatory and economic environment. |
| Keywords: | Basel 3, QIS, impact assessment, bank, capital, liquidity |
| JEL: | G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_157_13&r=cwa |
| By: | Stefania De Mitri (Banca d'Italia); Antonio De Socio (Banca d'Italia); Paolo Finaldi Russo (Banca d'Italia); Valentina Nigro (Banca d'Italia) |
| Abstract: | Italy is the European country where firms with fewer than 10 employees account for the largest share of value added and employment. On the basis of data from the company balance sheets and the Central Credit Register during the period 2003-2010, this work contributes to the analysis of these companies describing their economic and financial conditions and their relations with banks based on a sample of about 500,000 companies, of which more than 400,000 are classified as micro-enterprises. On average, they have lower profitability and higher debt, largely bank debt, than the other size classes. The proportion of loans made by the partners and shareholders is significant, a feature that can mitigate some of the risks associated with their weaker financial conditions. Econometric estimates indicate that micro-enterprises must provide more guarantees and pay higher rates of interest. In all aspects investigated in our work, the heterogeneity of micro-enterprises is much higher than for the other size classes, which suggests broad scope for future research. |
| Keywords: | micro-enterprises, business companies, employment, banking relationships |
| JEL: | G21 G32 L25 |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_162_13&r=cwa |
| By: | Daniel Mueller (University of Basel) |
| Abstract: | <p style="margin-bottom:0cm; margin-bottom:.0001pt; text-align: justify; line-height:normal; text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">This paper analyses the welfare effects of microfinance and inflation in developing countries. Therefore, we introduce a moral hazard problem into a monetary search model with money and credit. We show how access to basic financial services affects households' decisions to borrow, to save and to hold money balances. The group lending mechanism of the microfinance institution induces peer monitoring, which in turn enables entrepreneurship. Our main result is that there exists an inflation threshold beyond which entrepreneurship collapses. We show that inflation affects the impact of microfinance on social welfare in a nonlinear way. The positive effect of microfinance is largest for moderate rates of inflation and drops substantially for inflation rates above the threshold.</span></p> <p style="margin-bottom:0cm; margin-bottom:.0001pt; text-align: justify; line-height:normal; text-autospace:none"><span style="font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Arial","sans-serif""> </spa n> |
| Keywords: | Microfinance, Moral Hazard, Group Lending, Peer Monitoring and Monetary Policy |
| JEL: | D82 E44 G21 O16 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2013/06&r=cwa |
| By: | Carlos Usabiaga (Universidad Pablo de Olavide); Fernando Núñez (Universidad de Sevilla); Pablo Álvarez de Toledo (Universidad de Sevilla) |
| Abstract: | La investigación, desarrollada con datos de 2007 a 2010, propone medidas concretas para la búsqueda eficaz de empleo mediante la metodología de clusters, que permite suministrar a cada demandante, de forma individualizada, toda la información que necesita para poder conocer las opciones de empleo que tiene actualmente en su segmento laboral. |
| Keywords: | Emparejamiento laboral, Segmentación, Análisis de clusters, Oficinas públicas de empleo, Políticas activas del mercado de trabajo, Información sobre el empleo. |
| JEL: | J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cea:doctra:e2012_03&r=cwa |
| By: | Helena Marques; Gabriel Pino; Juan de Dios Tena |
| Abstract: | n this paper we attempt to establish a nexus between migration decisions and selfassessed happiness, where migration is taken as a mechanism for revealing preferences. The happiness literature has proposed both economic and non-economic determinants of happiness which are very similar to the factors that may be thought of as determinants of migration: absolute income, relative income, demographic and social characteristics, social development, relationship with others and characteristics of the place where we live. To these we add bilateral gravity variables, migration policies, and two survey-based happiness indexes. First, these two indexes are negatively correlated to net migration flows. Second, almost all the other explanatory variables are significant and as such survey-based happiness indexes fail to account for them. Third, we show how an international happiness ranking changes by taking into account those omitted factors. Finally, our migration-based ranking shows that, although many countries "truthfully" reveal happiness levels, in fact 19 countries are net migration senders even though they are self-proclaimed happy in surveys, whereas 23 countries are net migration recipients, even though in surveys they are self-proclaimed unhappy. We identify the sources of this mismatch and suggest where action could be taken to bring people’s self-assessment of happiness in line with revealed preferences |
| Keywords: | Happiness, Subjective wellbeing, Revealed preferences, Migration, Gravity models, FEVD |
| JEL: | F22 D03 C11 C23 |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:wsrepe:ws130908&r=cwa |
| By: | Leonardo Becchetti (University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Luisa Corrado (University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Pierluigi Conzo (Dept. of Economics and Statistics "Cognetti de Martiis", University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | We provide non experimental evidence of the relevance of sociability on subjective wellbeing by investigating the determinants of life satisfaction on a large sample of Europeans aged above 50. We document that voluntary work, religious attendance, helping friends/neighbours and participation to community-related organizations affect positively and significantly life satisfaction. We illustrate the different impact that some sociability variables have on eudaimonic versus cognitive measures of subjective wellbeing. Our empirical findings discriminate among other regarding and self-regarding preferences as rationales explaining such behaviour. We document that different combinations between actions and motivations have different impact on life satisfaction thereby providing support for the relevance of these specific "contingent goods" and to the literature of procedural utility. Our findings are confirmed in robustness checks including refinements of the dependent variable, instrumental variables and sensitivity analysis on departures from the exogeneity assumption. |
| Keywords: | Tsunami, sociability, altruism, other-regarding activities, other regarding motivations, life satisfaction, subjective well-being |
| JEL: | A13 D13 D64 |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ent:wpaper:wp49&r=cwa |
| By: | Marc Joëts (Ipag Business School and EconomiX-CNRS, University of Paris Ouest, France) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes to investigate the impact of financialization on energy markets (oil, gas, coal and electricity European forward prices) during both normal times and extreme fluctuation periods through an original behavioral and emotional approach. To this aim, we propose a new theoretical and empirical framework based on a heterogeneous agents model in which fundamentalists and chartists co-exist and are subject to regret and uncertainty. We find significant evidence that energy markets are composed by heterogeneous traders which behave differently depending on the intensity of the price fluctuations and uncertainty context. In particular, energy prices are mainly governed by fundamental and chartist neutral agents during normal times whereas they face to irrational chartist averse investors during extreme fluctuations periods. In this context, the recent energy prices surge can be viewed as the consequence of irrational exhuberance. Our new theoretical model outperforms the random walk in out-of-sample predictive ability. |
| Keywords: | Energy Forward Prices, Financialization, Heterogeneous Agents, Uncertainty Aversion, Regret |
| JEL: | Q43 G15 D81 |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2013.32&r=cwa |
| By: | Corsi, Alessandro (Università di Torino, Department of Economics); Strøm, Steinar (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo) |
| Abstract: | Organic wines are increasingly produced and appreciated. Since organic production is more costly, a crucial question is whether they benefit from a price premium. We estimate hedonic price functions for Piedmont organic and conventional wines. We use data on the production side in addition to variables of interest for consumers. Our results show that, along with characteristics of interest to consumers, some farm and producer characteristics not directly relevant for consumers do significantly affect wine prices. We find that organic wine tends to obtain higher prices than conventional wine. The price premium is not simply an addition to other price components, but organic quality modifies the impact of the other variables on price. |
| Keywords: | Organic wines; Hedonic price functions; Farming; Prices; Price variables |
| JEL: | C21 D49 L11 Q12 |
| Date: | 2013–03–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:osloec:2013_007&r=cwa |
| By: | Franklin Allen; Elena Carletti |
| Abstract: | In a model with bankruptcy costs and segmented deposit and equity markets, we endogenize the choice of bank and firm capital structure and the cost of equity and deposit finance. Despite risk neutrality, equity capital is more costly than deposits. When banks directly finance risky investments, they hold positive capital and diversify. When they make risky loans to firms, banks trade off the high cost of equity with the diversification benefits from a lower bankruptcy probability. When bankruptcy costs are high, banks use no capital and only lend to one sector. When these are low, banks hold capital and diversify. JEL Codes: G21, G32, G33 Keywords: Deposit finance, bankruptcy costs, bank diversification |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:igi:igierp:477&r=cwa |
| By: | Ageli, Mohammed Moosa; Zaidan, Shatha Mousa |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the nexus between financial sector development and economic growth in the Saudi economy over the period 1970-2012 by using four alternative proxies for financial development and several techniques including unit root tests, the co-integration test, the Granger Causality Test, and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). We used time series econometrics techniques to examine the causal relationship between financial sector development and economic growth in the Saudi economy. The results obtained from the analyses show that there is a positive relationship between financial sector development and economic growth in Saudi Arabia. The development of the financial system will thus have a positive impact on the growth of the Saudi economy. |
| Keywords: | Financial Sector Development, Unit Root test, co-integration test, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Economic Growth, Saudi Arabia |
| JEL: | E44 O11 O53 |
| Date: | 2013–01–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:46591&r=cwa |
| By: | Ageli, Mohammed Moosa |
| Abstract: | Our goal in this paper is to explore the validity of Wagner’s Law in Saudi Arabia during the period (1970-2012) for real oil GDP and Non-oil GDP. Wagner’s Law investigated that fundamental economic growth is validity to the public sector growth. In the previous studies have been tested the six versions of Wagner’s law to support the existence of long-run relationship between government expenditure and economic growth. We used a method as a time series econometrics techniques to examine how far Wagner’s Law validity can be applied in Saudi economy. The results obtained from the analyses find that the Wagnerian proposition can explain the growth of government in Saudi Arabia, which holds for both the oil and non-oil income cases. The findings also note that the existence of strong causality for all of Wagner’s law versions in the long run. |
| Keywords: | Wagner’s Law, Co-integration, Error Correction Model (ECM), Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Government Expenditure, Economic Growth, Saudi Arabia |
| JEL: | C32 H50 O53 |
| Date: | 2013–01–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:46594&r=cwa |
| By: | Pfeiffer, Friedhelm; Reuß, Karsten |
| Abstract: | The paper studies the power of educational investments in relation to transfers for fostering lifetime income and for reducing income inequality in Germany. The welfare analysis is based on a model of age-dependent human capital accumulation, featuring dynamic complementarities in skill formation over the life cycle, and calibrated for the period of ongoing demographic transition until 2080. If policy aims at reducing the inequality of lifetime income among people of the same generation, educational investments for people younger than or equal to seventeen do a better job compared to transfers in adulthood. In an intergenerational perspective all cohorts born after 1976 will gain from tax-financed additional investments in preschooleducation introduced in 2011. Additional investments into secondary education will, as a rule, not cause life time income to raise enough to compensate its costs. -- |
| Keywords: | early education,demographic change,inequality over the life span,redistributive policy |
| JEL: | D63 H55 I20 J11 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:13021&r=cwa |