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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Joshua C.C. Chan; Eric Eisenstat |
| Abstract: | Empirical work in macroeconometrics has mostly restricted to using VARs, even though there are strong theoretical reasons to consider general VARMAs. This is perhaps because estimation of VARMAs is perceived to be challenging. In this article, we develop a Gibbs sampler for the basic VARMA, and demonstrate how it can be extended to models with stochastic volatility and time-varying parameters. We illustrate the methodology through a macroeconomic forecasting exercise. We show that VARMAs produce better density forecasts than VARs, particularly for short forecast horizons. |
| JEL: | C11 C32 C53 |
| Date: | 2013–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2013-604&r=cwa |
| By: | Kathage, Jonas; Qaim, Matin; Kassie, Menale; Shiferaw, Bekele A. |
| Abstract: | Modern technologies are often not widely adopted among smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa. Several adoption constraints have been discussed in the literature, including limited access to information. Using survey data from farmers in Tanzania and the average treatment effect framework, we question the hypothesis that limited information is an important constraint for the adoption of hybrid maize technology. While we find an adoption gap from incomplete awareness exposure, this gap is sizeable only in the east of Tanzania, where productivity effects of hybrids are small. In the north, where adoption is much more beneficial, almost all farmers are already aware of hybrids. The results suggest that exposure to a new technology may be a function of expected returns to adoption. We also test for other constraints related to credit and risk, which do not determine adoption significantly. More generally, nonadoption of technologies is not always a sign of constraints but may also indicate low benefits. Some policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | farm survey, technology adoption, hybrid maize, Tanzania, Community/Rural/Urban Development, International Development, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, O13, O33, Q12, Q16, |
| Date: | 2013–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gagfdp:144007&r=cwa |
| By: | Bent Flyvbjerg |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how theories of the planning fallacy and the outside view may be used to conduct quality control and due diligence in project management. First, a much-neglected issue in project management is identified, namely that the front-end estimates of costs and benefits--used in the business cases, cost-benefit analyses, and social and environmental impact assessments that typically support decisions on projects--are typically significantly different from actual ex post costs and benefits, and are therefore poor predictors of the actual value and viability of projects. Second, it is discussed how Kahneman and Tversky's theories of the planning fallacy and the outside view may help explain and remedy this situation through quality control of decisions. Third, it is described what quality control and due diligence are in the context of project management, and an eight-step procedure is outlined for due diligence based on the outside view. Fourth, the procedure is tested on a real-life, multibillion-dollar project, organized as a public-private partnership. Finally, Akerlof and Shiller's recent discussion in economics of "firing the forecaster" is discussed together with its relevance to project management. In sum, the paper demonstrates the need, the theoretical basis, a practical methodology, and a real-life example for how to de-bias project management using quality control and due diligence based on the outside view. |
| Date: | 2013–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1302.2544&r=cwa |
| By: | Jean-Marie Baland (University of Namur BREAD and CEPR); Lata Gangadharan (Monash University); Pushkar Maitra (Monash University); Rohini Somanathan (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, Delhi, India) |
| Abstract: | Microfinance groups often engage in a variety of collective activities not directly related to credit. Groups can sanction members who default on their loans by excluding them from these activities. Our experiment is designed to explore the effectiveness of such sanctions in improving repayment incentives. Groups of 10 members are provided with joint-liability loans for a specific investment project. If groups repay their loans, contributing members have the option of excluding other members and those that remain play a public goods game. By varying loan sizes across groups and allowing for heterogeneous gains from the public good within groups, we identify the role of incentives in repayment decisions. In line with theoretical predictions, groups with the largest repayment burdens have the highest default rates and within groups, individual decisions to contribute to loan repayment depend on gains from the public good game. |
| Keywords: | Microfinance, Joint Liability, Social Exclusion, Public Good, Heterogeneous Pro- ductivity, Laboratory Experiments. |
| JEL: | C9 G21 O12 |
| Date: | 2013–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cde:cdewps:227&r=cwa |
| By: | Andrey Zubarev (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses different approaches to theoretical and empirical models of bank defaults. Through constructed binary probabilistic models of defaults the paper reveals key factors which have an impact on the viability of Russian banks during the financial crisis of 2008 to 2009. Policy recommendations of the Central Bank of Russia and the banking supervision and regulation aimed at preventing bank defaults in the event of such crises in the future are formulated based on the model results. |
| Keywords: | bank default, financial crisis, binary models, policy of the Central Bank of Russia. |
| JEL: | E41 E51 E58 G21 G24 G28 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:wpaper:0049&r=cwa |
| By: | Alexander Knobel (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Ilya Sokolov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an analysis of the quality of VAT administration in OECD countries and Russia. Econometric analysis of the factors which influence the quality of VAT administration, demonstrate a positive effect of the level of institutional development on the efficiency of tax collection. However this tendency takes place only when there are no additional tax exemptions being implemented alongside the economic development where ex-emptions, in addition to causing a direct loss, complicate the taxation system and lower the quality of its administration |
| Keywords: | administration efficiency, optimal taxation, VAT. |
| JEL: | C23 C51 C53 H21 H23 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:wpaper:0050&r=cwa |
| By: | Sergey Drobyshevsky (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Ilya Sokolov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | This paper deals with 2008-2009 crisis which marked a new stage of Russia’s budgetary policy. Although the budget situation in Russia is presently much better than in the majority of the developed countries, reservation of high dependence on oil proceeds, observed trends in in the structure of expenditure obligations indicate the preservation of high risks of an unbalanced budget in long term perspective. Provision of budgetary and macroeconomic balance require adoption of urgent measures both in the sphere of tax policy and budget outlays. |
| Keywords: | budget policy, financial stability, tax policy, fiscal policy, national budget. |
| JEL: | E62 E52 E58 G01 H61 H68 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:wpaper:0051&r=cwa |
| By: | Ugo Panizza (Graduate Institute of International Studies) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the rules of engineering as a rhetorical device to discuss why the international financial architecture needs a structured mechanism for dealing with sovereign insolvency. The paper suggests that the most important problem with the statusquo relates to delayed defaults and sketches a proposal aimed at mitigating this problem. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign debt, Sovereign default |
| JEL: | F34 H63 |
| Date: | 2013–02–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp03-2013&r=cwa |
| By: | Stephan Klasen (Georg-August-University Göttingen); Sebastian Vollmer (Georg-August-University Göttingen) |
| Abstract: | In a recent paper in the Review of Economic Studies, Siwan Anderson and Debraj Ray (Anderson and Ray, 2010) develop and apply a new ‘flow’ measure of ‘missing women’ to estimate the extent of gender bias in mortality in developing countries. Contrary to the existing literature, they find that the problem of gender bias in mortality is as severe among adults as it is among children in India, that gender bias in mortality is larger in Sub‐Saharan Africa than in China and India, and that there was substantial evidence of gender bias in mortality in the US around 1900. These latter results are driven largely by the finding of substantial gender bias among adults. We show first that the data for Sub‐Saharan Africa used in the paper are generated by simulations in ways that deliver their findings on Africa (and the US in 1900) by construction. Second, we show that the analysis is entirely dependent on a highly implausible reference standard that is inappropriately applied to settings where the overall disease and mortality environment differ greatly; the attempt to control for the disease environment by the authors is not able to address these issues. When a more appropriate reference standard is used, most of the new findings of Anderson and Ray disappear. Instead, the findings from the existing literature relying on stock measures of missing women are confirmed. The one finding that remains and deserves further attention is some evidence of gender bias in mortality among young adults in Africa (though of much lower magnitude than suggested by Anderson and Ray). |
| Keywords: | Missing women; gender bias; mortality; disease; age; Sub‐Saharan Africa; China; India |
| JEL: | J16 D63 I10 |
| Date: | 2013–02–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:gotcrc:133&r=cwa |
| By: | Esther Regnier (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris); Katheline Schubert (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris) |
| Abstract: | This article analyzes the impact of aquaculture on wild fish stocks and on fish consumption, taking into account its dependence on reduction fisheries for the feeding of the farmed species and consumet preferences. The model includes the demand side and three sectors : and edible fish fishery and a reduction fishery, both in open access, and an aquaculture sector. We assume on the one hand that consumer preferences are carnivorous species biased, and on the other hand that the efficiency of the aquaculture sector depends on the diet of the farmed species. We show that consumers are better-off in presence of aquaculture. Furthermore, the income level for which collapse of the wild edible fishery occurs is postponed. However, the choice of the farmed species entails a trade-off between the edible fishery and the reduction fishery which stems from the characteristics of the demand side. Therefore, we explore the consequences of the sensitivity of consumers to the farmed fish type. We also analyze the dynamics of fish stocks, supplies and prices and find that the steady state is a stable node. |
| Keywords: | Fisheries; aquaculture; consumer preferences; food safety |
| Date: | 2013–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00786112&r=cwa |
| By: | Emily Blanchard; Tatyana Chesnokova; Gerald Willmann |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the role of pooled-producer, e.g. private label, trade intermediation in shaping the range and diversity of exports. Direct sales maintain a firm's unique product characteristics (`brand equity'), whereas trade through an intermediary can take two forms — either a wholesaling arrangement that (also) maintains the exporter's unique brand but imposes a higher marginal cost (via double marginalization), or a `private label' contract under which the firm's product is pooled with other firms' output and re-sold under a new private label brand created by the intermediary. This paper focuses on the latter, and shows that the availability of the private label option results in greater total export volumes and lower average prices for consumers, but fewer independent varieties available in equilibrium. Welfare implications are mixed: consumers trade variety for volume, firms face greater competition from the new pooled-products, and intermediaries capture much of the gains from trade |
| Keywords: | Private Labels, Export Mode, Intermediaries, Heterogeneous Firms, International Retailers |
| JEL: | F13 F16 D72 E60 |
| Date: | 2013–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kie:kieliw:1829&r=cwa |