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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Oral, Isil; Santos, Indhira; Zhang, Fan |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the differential impact of climate change policies on employment in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. In particular, the paper examines (i) how vulnerable labor markets are in Eastern European and Central Asian countries to future carbon regulation, and (ii) what countries can do to mitigate some of the potential negative effects of these regulatory changes on employment. In many aspects, the nature of the shock associated with climate regulation is similar to that associated with an increase in energy prices. Constraints on carbon emissions put a price on climate-damaging activities and make hydrocarbon-based energy production and consumption more expensive. As a result, firms in energy-intensive industries may react to higher energy prices by reducing production, which in turn would lead to lower employment. In the presence of frictions in labor markets, these sector shifts will cause resources to be unemployed, at least in the short term. Using principal component analysis, the paper finds that Eastern European and Central Asian countries vary greatly in their vulnerability and adaptability of employment to carbon regulation. Since the economy takes time to adjust, policy-makers will need to ensure that the incentives are there for new firms to emerge and employ workers, and that workers have the skills to respond to that demand. Moreover, governments have a role to play in ensuring that workers that are displaced have a proper safety net that will not only help in protecting their welfare, but will also allow workers to make more efficient labor market transitions. |
| Keywords: | Labor Markets,Energy Production and Transportation,Markets and Market Access,Labor Policies,Climate Change Economics |
| Date: | 2012–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6294&r=cwa |
| By: | Mirzabaev, Alisher; Tsegai, Daniel W. |
| Abstract: | Higher weather volatility may be reflected in higher incidences of weather shocks. Weather shocks could potentially affect the supply of agricultural commodities and their prices. In this study, the effects of weather shocks on agricultural commodity prices in Central Asia are investigated at the provincial scale using monthly data for the period of 2000-2010. The study uses an innovative estimation method, where the idiosyncratic components of the variables are analyzed using Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) panel regression in the presence of cross-sectional dependence and serial autocorrelation. The analysis indicates that weather volatility and, especially, the fluctuations in the availability of irrigation water have statistically significant effects on wheat and potato prices in Central Asia. Negative shocks, involving lower than usual temperatures and precipitation amounts, could create favorable conditions for higher wheat prices in the region. Lower availability of irrigation water may encourage irrigation-dependent countries of the region to aggressively raise wheat stocks to face expected supply shortfalls, thus leading to higher regional wheat prices. This effect could be further aggravated by negative impacts of lower irrigation water availability on wheat yields. In order to counteract such developments, it is necessary to devise effective grain storage policies. Regional free trade arrangements in agricultural commodities will also be important to minimize price volatility resulting from weather shocks. For protecting agricultural producers, weather insurance schemes could be introduced. It would be also necessary to make investments into crop breeding and agronomic research for developing new crop cultivars resistant to biotic and abiotic stresses, and on promoting water-efficient crop production technologies. |
| Keywords: | weather and price shocks, Central Asia, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, Production Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2012–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ubzefd:140769&r=cwa |
| By: | Jonatan Pinkse (MTS - Management Technologique et Strategique - Grenoble École de Management (GEM)); Daniel Van Den Buuse (University of Amsterdam Business School - University of Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | In diversifying energy supply, the transformation of the energy industry has been identified as a key challenge for a sustainable energy future. This suggests that incumbent firms in this industry have a vital role in the development and commercialization process of renewable energy technologies. This paper provides a comparative analysis of oil and gas firms' strategies regarding solar PV technology investments, a renewable energy technology that has seen explosive growth of late. The main aim is to examine the strategic approach of incumbent firms in the oil and gas industry towards the development and commercialization of solar PV technology. To investigate this, a multiple case study has been conducted within the European oil industry, focusing on the three largest oil and gas firms: BP, Royal Dutch/Shell, and Total. Findings show that oil and gas firms have difficulties with integrating solar PV technology in their supply chain. The analysis suggests that it is uncertain whether all oil and gas firms will abandon solar completely, as this depends to what extent they are able to generate profits. Nevertheless, there is currently a trend in the oil industry of leaving solar and positioning towards a 'recarbonization' of business activities. |
| Keywords: | Renewable Energy; Solar Photovoltaic; Oil and Gas industry; |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:gemptp:hal-00763647&r=cwa |
| By: | Schierhorn, Florian; Muller, Daniel; Prishchepov, Alexander V.; Balmann, Alfons |
| Abstract: | Paper prepared for presentation at the "Annual World Bank Conference on Land and Poverty", World Bank, Washington, D.C., April 23-26, 2012 |
| Keywords: | Post-Soviet corpland change, agricultural abandonment, grain potentials, spatial model, Russia, Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use, Production Economics, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miscpa:139019&r=cwa |
| By: | Marco J. Lombardi (Bank for International Settlements,); Francesco Ravazzolo (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) and BI Norwegian Business School) |
| Abstract: | In the recent years several commentators hinted at an increase of the correlation between equity and commodity prices, and blamed investment in commodity-related products for this. First, this paper investigates such claims by looking at various measures of correlation. Next, we assess to what extent correlations between oil and equity prices can be exploited for asset allocation. We develop a time-varying Bayesian Dynamic Conditional Correlation model for volatilities and correlations and nd that joint modelling of oil and equity prices produces more accurate point and density forecasts for oil which lead to substantial bene ts in portfolio wealth. |
| Keywords: | Oil price, Stock price, Density forecasting, Correlation, Bayesian DCC. |
| JEL: | C11 C15 C33 E17 G17 |
| Date: | 2012–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bno:worpap:2012_24&r=cwa |
| By: | Masahiko Aoki (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)) |
| Abstract: | This essay provides a game-theoretic, endogenous view of institutions, and then applies the idea to identify the sources of institutional trajectories of economic development in China, Japan, and Korea. It stylizes the Malthusian-phase of East Asian economies as peasant-based economies in which small families allocated their working time between farming on small plots— leased or owned—and handcrafting for personal consumption and markets. It then compares institutional arrangements across these economies that sustained otherwise similar economies. It characterizes the varied nature of the political states of Qing China, Tokugawa Japan, and Yi Korea by focusing on the way in which agricultural taxes were enforced. It also identifies different patterns of social norms of trust that were institutional complements to, or substitutes for, political states. Finally, it traces the path-dependent transformations of these state-norm combinations along subsequent transitions to post-Malthusian phases of economic growth in the respective economies. |
| Keywords: | economic development, institutions, China, Japan, Korea, political states, social norms, institutional complements and substitutes |
| JEL: | O43 O53 P51 |
| Date: | 2012–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:develo:23378&r=cwa |
| By: | Manchala, Ravibabu; Vagvala, Phani Sree |
| Abstract: | Objective Emerging economies like India are investing heavily in rapid development of urban transport infrastructure for public transport. Though the initial efforts started with three modes - metro rail, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and surface rail; currently investments are being made mainly in metro rail and BRT. In spite of lack of patronage, surface rail, which helped develop many cities in India, is playing a prominent role in movement of urban commuters. The objective of research is to assess the viability of surface rail for movement of urban commuters in comparison to metro rail and BRT. To achieve this objective research questions asked were: • How do cost, capacity and cost per unit capacity compare between metro rail, surface rail and BRT systems? • What is the current urban form of Indian cities and policy framework to accommodate future urbanisation? • What does this imply for planning of public transport? • Can the surface rail serve the city core in addition to serving the peripheral areas? If so, what should be the planning strategies for the surface rail systems? • What are the implications for public transport in India and can the BRT, metro rail and surface rail be symbiotically combined to generate a more purposeful and distinct public transport for Indian UAs? If so, what are the investment implications? • If the answer to the above is affirmative, what policy measures are required to integrate surface rail into transit systems of Indian UAs? Methodology The methodology adapted was : • Comparative assessment of cost, capacity and cost per unit capacity for the three modes which established that cost per unit capacity for surface rail is one twentieth of metro and one fourth of BRT • Review of urbanisation trends and policies • Finally, review of rail network in the 50 urban agglomerations (UAs) with population more than million to see the extent of rail network serving them and whether it can serve the core city. Results The results indicate that during the 12th plan 747 kilometres (kms) of metro rail and 989 kms of regional rail systems are being developed to serve 10 large UAs. As against this, by reallocation of the resources a more elaborate urban rail network of 6628 kms can be upgraded and 3000 kms of new system can be added in all the 49 UAs. Another major finding is the hidden benefits given to metro rail compared to surface rail systems. Implications for Policy Immediate policy implication is to undertake surface rail development on priority before metro rail development is taken up. Policy implication would be to set up an institutional mechanism for fast development of surface rail. This would be possible if apex policy making bodies of Ministry of Urban Development (MoUD) for urban transport, Ministry of Railways (MoR) for surface rail and the Planning Commissions jointly review and formulate guidelines for surface rail and metro rail projects. This would facilitate concerted action for development of surface rail at all levels. |
| Keywords: | Surface rail; urban transit; Bus rapid transit; Metro rail; Urban Agglomerations; India |
| JEL: | R40 R42 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2012–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:43357&r=cwa |
| By: | Ana Luísa Coutinho; Maria Paula Fontoura |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to assess the competitiveness of exports of manufactured goods from China and India to the European Union in the 2000s. The empirical analysis is based on two methodologies: (i) a Constant Market Share analysis which allows to decompose the export growth to the European market into several components including an effect usually related to competitiveness, and (ii) an analysis based on the combination of revealed comparative advantage indexes with a geographic orientation of trade which allows to identify the products of China and India that appear to have export potential. |
| Keywords: | China, India, Competitiveness, European Union, Constant Market Shares Technique, Trade Potential. |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp352012&r=cwa |
| By: | Sayantan Ghosh Dastidar; Sushil Mohan; Monojit Chatterji |
| Abstract: | The paper reviews the theoretical and the empirical case for public investment in education in India. Though the theoretical literature provides a backing for such a policy, the empirical literature fails to find a robust relation between education expenditure and growth. Expenditure on education is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for growth. It seems that the effectiveness of education expenditure depends on the institutional and labour market characteristics of the economy. The effectiveness of education investments also depends on other factors such as trade openness. Due to these aforesaid factors, we argue that the empirical relation between education expenditure and growth for India has been inconsistent. |
| Keywords: | Public education expenditure, economic growth, trade openness, India |
| JEL: | E60 E62 H52 I25 |
| Date: | 2012–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dun:dpaper:273&r=cwa |
| By: | Alia Aghajanian (Institute of Development Studies) |
| Abstract: | Conflict is either caused by, or brings about, drastic changes in the underlying social relationships between members of a community involved in the conflict. The conflict literature has taken note, and a growing number of studies attempt to determine the relationship between conflict and social capital. Unfortunately, there are many problems that have plagued the social capital literature, and conflict studies have failed to address these. This paper aims to provide a critical analysis of the literature on conflict and social capital, discuss the problems that can arise when studying social capital, how the conflict literature might address this, and highlight the gaps in the conflict and social capital literature. |
| Keywords: | Conflict, social capital |
| JEL: | D03 |
| Date: | 2012–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:134&r=cwa |
| By: | Patricia Justino (Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex) |
| Abstract: | This chapter examines how the relationship between economic exclusion, inequality, conflict and violence shape the goal of establishing shared societies. The chapter discusses how this impact is largely determined by the emergence and organisation of social and political institutions in areas of violent conflict. Two areas of institutional change are central to understanding the relationship between armed conflict and shared societies. The first is the change caused by armed conflict on social interactions and norms of trust and cooperation. The second is the influence exercised by informal mediators, informal service providers and informal systems of governance – often controlled by non-state armed actors – that emerge from processes of violence and are prevalent in areas of armed conflict. These forms of institutional transformation are central to understanding how societies may be able to restrict the use of violence as a strategic way of resolving social conflicts and how to transition from violence-ridden to shared societies. |
| JEL: | D63 D74 O17 |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:125&r=cwa |
| By: | Soojin Jo |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of oil price uncertainty on real economic activity using a quarterly VAR with stochastic volatility in mean. Stochastic volatility allows oil price uncertainty to vary separately from changes in the level of oil prices, and thus the impact of oil price uncertainty can be examined in a more flexible yet tractable way. In addition, this paper substantially improves on the recovery of a historical uncertainty series by incorporating an additional uncertainty indicator, i.e., a realized volatility series from daily oil price data, into the estimation process. The estimation results show that an oil price uncertainty shock alone has negative effects on world industrial production. |
| Keywords: | Business fluctuations and cycles; Econometric and statistical methods |
| JEL: | E32 C32 Q43 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:12-40&r=cwa |
| By: | Iqbal, Javed; Mehmood, Sultan |
| Abstract: | High terrorist attack frequency and intensity in Pakistan provides a unique data to study the impact of terrorism on foreign inflows and trade. After 9/11, Pakistan has suffered from rapidly decreasing foreign inflows and a contraction in trade. The paper estimates the unit cost of a terrorist attack in terms of foreign inflows and international trade lost to be $51.92 million. |
| Keywords: | Terrorism; trade; foreign inflows; unit cost |
| JEL: | F24 C01 |
| Date: | 2012–11–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:42910&r=cwa |
| By: | Tom Engsted (Aarhus University and CREATES); Thomas Q. Pedersen (Aarhus University and CREATES) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the predictive power of the rent-to-price ratio for future real estate returns and rent growth in 18 OECD countries over the period 1970 to 2011. First, we document that in most countries returns are signi?cantly predictable by the rent-price ratio. An increase (decrease) in the ratio signals a future increase (decrease) in returns. Second, there are large cross-country di¤erences in how the rent-price ratio predicts rent growth. For some countries the direction of predictability is negative, for other countries it is positive. Third, the predictive patterns are highly dependent on whether returns and rents are measured in nominal or real terms. Finally, there is some evidence of sub-sample instability in the predictive patterns, especially wrt. rent growth predictability. The predictability tests are conducted within a restricted VAR framework based on the dynamic Gordon growth model. This model implies restrictions across the VAR parameters that can be used to construct powerful tests of predictability. |
| Keywords: | Real estate predictability, dynamic Gordon growth model, rent-price ratio, VAR model, OECD countries |
| JEL: | C32 G12 R31 |
| Date: | 2012–12–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aah:create:2012-58&r=cwa |
| By: | Yoshitaka Yamazaki (International University of Japan) |
| Abstract: | The present study aims to examine how job satisfaction rests on confidence in Asia. A total of 914 employees who participated in this study consisted of Japanese, Chinese, Hong Kong's, Malaysian, and Thai managers who work as parent or host country nationals for a Japanese multinational corporation expanding Asian markets. This study initially confirmed that a level of each key variable: job satisfaction and confidence, significantly differed in those countries. As the entire managerial group, by controlling age, gender, tenure, past work experience, and management positions, results of regression analysis showed that confidence powerfully increased job satisfaction. Further, with regard to five different area groups, results also illustrated the strong effect of confidence on job satisfaction in each country. Consequently, the study results have led to a conclusion that this relational aspect between the two psychological variables tends to be universalistic rather than a culturally contextual specific phenomenon. Theoretical and practical implications will be discussed. |
| Keywords: | Job satisfaction, confidence, dispositional approaches, Asian managers, Japanese multinationals |
| Date: | 2012–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iuj:wpaper:ems_2012_22&r=cwa |
| By: | Yousuf, Ahmed Sadek |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between health aid and infant mortality, using data from in total 135 countries (for the purposes of this study, developing countries), between 1975 and 2010. Utilizing both conventional Instrumental Variable and System GMM approaches, a tentative conclusion can be drawn that aid comes to have a statistically significant and positive effect on infant mortality rate, as doubling of aid leads to an approximately 1.3% reduction in infant mortality rates. Thus for an average aid recipient country, doubling per capita aid leads to a reduction of about 790 deaths per million live births in a particular year. This effect, in comparison to the set goals of the Millennium Development Goals, is small and may not be enough to ensure that the MDG targets are met by 2015. |
| Keywords: | Health Oriented Aid; Instrumental Variable; System GMM; Infant Mortality Rates |
| JEL: | C23 C33 C01 I10 |
| Date: | 2012–10–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:43212&r=cwa |