|
on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Atif, Syed Muhammad; Mohazzam, Sardar |
| Abstract: | The mantra of inclusive growth is taking over the public policy debates addressing poverty alleviation and sustained development in the developing world. In order to reduce poverty substantially, rapid pace of growth is not only necessary, but it should be sustainable in the long run and broad-based across sectors, nonetheless, inclusive of country’s labour force at large. Poverty and growth were much discussed and analysed in separation by policymakers in the previous decades. Inclusive growth strategy is an integration of these two strands of analyses implying relationship between the macro and micro determinants of growth. This paper examines the nature of relationship between the macroeconomic and social-development indicators by using a Multiple Regression Framework and Vector Auto Regression Model, as proposed by Toda-Yamamoto, is used to determine the direction of causality between the key macroeconomic variables of Pakistan over the period of 1997-98s to 2009-10. The paper critically examines Inclusive growth paradigm ─ for market led growth, and suggests its weaknesses which can be addressed through review of the pro-poor goals of economic policy of Post Washington Consensus (PWC). Finally, the paper urges to explore the myths and realities of inclusive growth strategies for policymakers in Pakistan to identify and prioritize the Pakistan specific constraints i.e. Low spending on health and education, promote growth in agriculture and rural development for sustained and inclusive growth. -- |
| Keywords: | Inclusive Growth,Washington Consensus,Pakistan,Toda-Yamamoto Causality |
| JEL: | C32 E61 |
| Date: | 2012–07–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:65714&r=cwa |
| By: | Atif, Syed Muhammad; Srivastav, Mudit; Sauytbekova, Moldir; Arachchige, Udeni Kathri |
| Abstract: | The causal effect of globalization on income inequality is an issue of significant academic interest. On one hand globalization is considered to promote global economic growth and social progress, while on the other, it is blamed for growing income inequality and environmental degradation, causing social degeneration and difficulty of competition. This paper analyses the impact of globalization on income inequality by estimating static and dynamic models for panel data of 68 developing countries over the period of 1990-2010. The results conform to a priori expectations and it is suggested that an increase in globalization in developing countries leads to an increase in the level of income inequality. However, this analysis suffers from certain limitations, which lead to the conclusion that perhaps a simple, overarching relationship does not exist in the subject matter. Rather it is possible that the impact of globalization on income distribution varies between nations, depending on the structures and institutions that are in place in each country. -- |
| Keywords: | Globalization,Income Inequality,Panel Data |
| JEL: | C33 |
| Date: | 2012–10–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:65664&r=cwa |
| By: | Ahmad, Mahyudin; Marwan, Nur Fakhzan |
| Abstract: | Numerous empirical studies have documented the evidence of institutional significance towards economic growth. This study extends such evidence as it examines the link between institutions and growth in developing countries including East Asian region. By using neoclassical growth framework augmented with institutional controls and latest estimation technique in panel data analysis, this study finds evidence of positive institutions growth-effects and uncovers the channel of their effects toward growth. This study also fills the gap in the East Asian growth literature, in which, to the best of our knowledge, only two studies namely Rodrik (1997) and Campos and Nugent (1999) that document the institutional importance toward economic growth for the region and apparently these studies are for the period before the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. |
| Keywords: | Institutions; economic growth; Asian Financial Crisis; dynamic panel analysis; generalized methods of moments; |
| JEL: | O43 E13 |
| Date: | 2012–10–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:42293&r=cwa |
| By: | Watanagase, Tarisa (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the relevance of Basel III to Asian emerging markets. It reviews some of the proposed regulations of Basel III in order to evaluate their likely implications for, and their ability to enhance, the stability of the banking and financial system. This is followed by a discussion on the challenges faced by the regulators of Asian emerging markets in effectively managing their financial regulations, given their capacity and institutional constraints. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for Asian emerging markets to strengthen and enhance the stability of their banking and financial systems. |
| Keywords: | basel iii; asian emerging markets; banking system; financial system; financial regulations |
| JEL: | E52 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2012–10–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0391&r=cwa |
| By: | Azam, Rehan; Muhammad, Danish; Syed Akbar, Suleman |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the influences of the approved results of loans cases, the loan applicants’ socioeconomic attributes in the decision of perusal loan. The results can improve the credit quality and avoid the misjudgment of screening personal loan customers and also establish a better personal loan risk management forecasting model. The main purpose of the present paper was to evaluate significance of loan applicant socioeconomic attributes on personal loan decision in the local private commercial banks of Pakistan. The statistical techniques, descriptive and logistic regression were used. The model identified that out of six independent variables, region, residence status and year with the current organization have significant impact on personal loan decision. |
| Keywords: | personal loan; socioeconomic; consumer banking; logistic regression model |
| JEL: | H8 L84 K35 D81 G23 H24 D14 I22 D71 D31 G2 A13 H81 G32 K36 G21 |
| Date: | 2012–10–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:42322&r=cwa |
| By: | Youssouf KIENDREBEOGO |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to address the empirical question of whether a country's level of manufacturing trade is affected by its financial sector development and to investigate the role of institutions in this relationship. Countries endowed with better-developed financial systems tend to specialize in industries that rely on external finance in production. This effect is likely to be stronger in countries with high-quality institutions. Using pure cross-sectional and panel specifications on a sample of 75 countries over the period 1971-2010, we find that financial development strongly and robustly exerts a positive effect on manufacturing exports, even after controlling for the effect of banking crises. Furthermore, institutional quality is found to have a favorable effect on the extent to which finance influences manufacturing trade, suggesting a multiplicity of experiences of the largest exporters of manufactured goods. |
| Keywords: | Financial Development, Manufacturing Exports, Comparative Advantages, Institutional Quality |
| JEL: | L60 F10 D21 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdi:wpaper:1398&r=cwa |
| By: | Victor Gorshkov (PhD student, Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University) |
| Abstract: | The present paper targets activity of Russian banks expanding their businesses abroad. Within the framework of existing multinational theory we examine motivation, entry modes and strategies of Russian foreign banks. We demonstrated on the example of Russia that distinctive features of banking sectors of host and home countries, offshore business of Russian banks, hidden forms of expansion through third countries, role of banks in other outward foreign investments, non-transparency of legal actors of foreign banks and their strong interrelation with the state and recourse-based TNCs and large financial and industrial groups, cultural and historical background among the host and home countries, all these factors in fact do matter and should be considered when investigating the foreign expansion of banks. Some suggestions were made in order to extend existing theoretical base on multinational banking theory. |
| Keywords: | multinational banking theory, foreign banks, motivation, entry modes, strategies, Russian banks |
| JEL: | F23 F30 G20 G21 P29 P33 |
| Date: | 2012–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:830&r=cwa |
| By: | Cashin, P.; Mohaddes, K.; Raissi, M.; Raissi, M. |
| Abstract: | We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2.2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output. |
| Keywords: | Global VAR (GVAR), interconnectedness, global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, international business cycle, oil-demand and oil-supply shocks. |
| JEL: | C32 E17 F44 F47 Q41 |
| Date: | 2012–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:1249&r=cwa |
| By: | Possumah, Bayu Taufiq; Ismail, Abdul Ghafar; Shahida , Shahimi |
| Abstract: | Religion and work are seldom discussed. The two have caused scholars to question the religion’s role with work. This paper reviews research on the integrate between religion and work by examining issues of concept, definition, measurement, and reviewing research that examines the relationship of work and religion with respect to: different times, types of people, organize human interactions and sources of knowledge. We then discuss the methodological requirement for reintegrating work studies into social institutional theory and indicate what the conceptual payoffs of such integration might be. These payoffs include breaking new conceptual ground, resolving theoretical puzzles and envisioning the nature of new social institutions. |
| Keywords: | Work Islam Ethic |
| JEL: | J81 J40 J24 A10 J53 J30 |
| Date: | 2012–01–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:41351&r=cwa |
| By: | Viren , Matti (Department of Economics and the PCRC in the University of Turku, Finland; Monetary Policy and Research, Bank of Finland) |
| Abstract: | This paper deals with economic growth in Europe. The special emphasis is in key institutional factors that are commonly assumed to affect aggregate growth: functioning of labor markets, availability of labor and capital, and the size of government. For more explicit measures, we use the data on profit rates, average working hours, dependency ratios, tax rates and other measures of the size of government (e.g. employment shares), measures of price competitiveness, and finally the structure of production. The data also include the terms of trade, interest rates, and foreign demand as control variables. Empirical analysis makes use of cross-country panel data for EU15 countries for 1971–2010. The results suggest that profitability and competitiveness do indeed constitute the main determinants of growth. However, also other variables like working hours and the size of government appear to affect growth in an important manner. All in all, slowdown of growth in Europe does not appear to be a paradox but at least with some margin something can be done in achieving more ambitious growth rates. |
| Keywords: | growth; working hours; taxes; competitiveness |
| JEL: | O40 O43 |
| Date: | 2012–10–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2012_029&r=cwa |
| By: | Sergei Guriev (New Economic School); Elena Vakulenko (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study convergence among Russian regions. We find that while there was no convergence in 1990s, the situation changed dramatically in 2000s. While interregional GDP per capita gaps still persist, the differentials in incomes and wages decreased substantially. We show that fiscal redistribution did not play a major role in convergence. We therefore try to understand the phenomenon of recent convergence using panel data on the interregional reallocation of capital and labor. We find that capital market in Russian regions is integrated in a sense that local investment does not depend on local savings. We also show that economic growth and financial development has substantially decreased the barriers to labor mobility. We find that in 1990s many poor Russian regions were in a poverty trap: potential workers wanted to leave those regions but could not afford to finance the move. In 2000s (especially in late 2000s), these barriers were no longer binding. Overall economic development allowed even poorest Russian regions to grow out of the poverty traps. This resulted in convergence in Russian labor market; the interregional gaps in incomes, wages and unemployment rates are now below those in Europe. The results imply that economic growth and development of financial and real estate markets eventually result in interregional convergence. |
| Keywords: | Convergence, economic growth, Russian regions, financial development, migration. |
| JEL: | J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0180&r=cwa |
| By: | Mañé Estrada, Aurèlia; Soldevila Lafon, Maria Victòria; Cámara Arilla, Carmen de la; Puig Gómez, Albert |
| Abstract: | The disintegration of the USSR brought the emergence of a new geo-energy space in Central Asia. This space arose in the context of a global energy transition, which began in the late 1970s. Therefore, this new space in a changing energy world requires both new conceptual frameworks of analysis and the creation of new analytical tools. Taking into account this fact, our paper attempts to apply the theoretical framework of the Global Commodity Chain (GCC) to the case of natural resources in Central Asia. The aim of the paper is to check if there could be any Central Asia’s geo-energy space, assuming that this space would exist if natural resources were managed with regional criteria. The paper is divided into four sections. First an introduction that describes the new global energy context within natural resources of Central Asia would be integrated. Secondly, the paper justifies why the GCC methodology is suitable for the study of the value chains of energy products. Thirdly, we build up three cases studies (oil and uranium from Kazakhstan and gas from Turkmenistan) which reveal a high degree of uncertainty over the direction these chains will take. Finally, we present the conclusions of this study that state that the most plausible scenario would be the integration of energy resources of these countries in GCC where the core of the decision-making process will be far away from the region of Central Asia. Key words: Energy transition, geo-energy space, Global Commodity Chains, Central Asia |
| Keywords: | Energia, Àsia central, 338 - Situació econòmica. Política econòmica. Gestió, control i planificació de l'economia. Producció. Serveis. Turisme. Preus, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:urv:wpaper:2072/203154&r=cwa |
| By: | Ine Van Robays (European Central Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates whether macroeconomic uncertainty changes the impact of oil shocks on the oil price. Using a structural threshold VAR model, we endogenously identify different regimes of uncertainty in which we estimate the effects of oil demand and supply shocks. The results show that higher macroeconomic uncertainty, as measured by higher world industrial production volatility, significantly increases the responsiveness of oil prices to oil shocks. This implies a lower price elasticity of oil demand and supply in the uncertain regime, or in other words, that both oil curves become steeper when uncertainty is high. The difference in oil demand elasticities is both statistically and economically meaningful. Accordingly, varying uncertainty about the macroeconomy can explain time variation in the oil price elasticity and hence in oil price volatility. Also the impact of oil shocks on economic activity appears to be significantly stronger in uncertain times. JEL Classification: E31, E32, Q41, Q43 |
| Keywords: | Oil prices, uncertainty, price elasticity, threshold VAR, sign restrictions |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20121479&r=cwa |
| By: | David C Broadstock (Research Institute of Economics and Management (RIEM), Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Sichuan, China and Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey, UK.); Hong Cao (Research Institute of Economics and Management (RIEM), Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Sichuan, China); Dayong Zhang (Research Institute of Economics and Management (RIEM), Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Sichuan, China) |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the current literature by adopting dynamic conditional correlation and asset pricing models to discover how the dynamics of international oil prices affect energy related stock returns in China. After conditioning for structural instability, the results show a much stronger relation following the 2008 financial crisis. We argue that this reflects the fact that investors in the Chinese stock market, especially for energy related stocks, are more sensitive to the shocks in international crude oil market. |
| Keywords: | Oil Prices, Energy Related Stocks, DCC, Asset Pricing, Structural Break. |
| JEL: | G12 G15 |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sur:seedps:137&r=cwa |
| By: | Azam, Rehan; Muhammad, Danish; Syed Akbar, Suleman |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study was to substantiate the consumption styles of adolescents as customer. The study was executed in Karachi, Pakistan by applying consumption style inventory scale. The data covered of 1,048 respondents who are young and educated mostly students, which belong to the different universities in Karachi. The data was collected through structured and self administered questionnaire. To test objective Independent sample t test was used. The results show that young females are more shopping influenced, fashion conscious, recreational, and confused over-choice as compare to males whereas males are more reliance on media, perfectionist, brand conscious, and impulsive as compare to females for their consumption style toward shopping behavior. This research provides understanding about adolescents’ decision making style of consumers in Karachi which would enable organizations to make more appropriate strategies to cater youth consumers market. |
| Keywords: | Consumption style; gender; independent sample t-test; young adults; shopping behavior |
| JEL: | P36 M3 D11 L67 D1 L1 I2 D12 C44 J1 I23 D01 |
| Date: | 2012–09–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:42369&r=cwa |
| By: | Kumagai, Satoru; Hayakawa, Kazunobu; Isono, Ikumo; Keola, Souknilanh; Tsubota, Kenmei |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a simulation of the reduction of several components in trade cost for Asia and examines its impact on the economy. Our simulation model based on the new economic geography embraces seven sectors, including manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, and 1,715 regions in 18 countries/economies in Asia, in addition to the two economies of the US and the European Union. The geographical course of transactions among regions is modeled as determined based on firms’ modal choice. The model also includes estimates of some border cost measures such as tariff rates, non-tariff barriers, other border clearance costs, transshipment costs and so on. Our simulation analysis for Asia includes several scenarios involving the improvement/development of routes and the reduction of the above-mentioned border cost. We have shown that the contribution of physical and non-physical infrastructure improvements conducted together is larger than the sum of the contribution by each when conducted independently. |
| Keywords: | Asia, Transportation, Distribution, Costs, International trade, Geographical simulation, New economic geography, Trade cost |
| JEL: | F15 O53 R15 |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper369&r=cwa |
| By: | Matthias Doepke (Northwestern University) |
| Abstract: | Women's rights and economic development are highly correlated. Today, the discrepancy between the legal rights of women and men is much larger in developing compared to developed countries. Historically, even in countries that are now rich women had few rights before economic development took off. Is development the cause of expanding women's rights, or conversely, do women's rights facilitate development? We argue that there is truth to both hypotheses. The literature on the economic consequences of women's rights documents that more rights for women lead to more spending on health and children, which should benefit development. The political-economy literature on the evolution of women's rights finds that technological change increased the costs of patriarchy for men, and thus contributed to expanding women's rights. Combining these perspectives, we discuss the theory of Doepke and Tertilt (2009), where an increase in the return to human capital induces men to vote for women's rights, which in turn promotes growth in human capital and income per capita. |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed012:116&r=cwa |