nep-cwa New Economics Papers
on Central and Western Asia
Issue of 2012‒10‒27
seventeen papers chosen by
Cherry Ann Santos
University of Melbourne
  1. Regional cluster policy: The Asian model vs. the OECD approach By Pessoa, Argentino
  2. Another look at the determinants of current account imbalances in the European Union: An empirical assessment By Agnieszka Gehringer
  3. Stagflation, the Labor Market Impact, and the Poverty Puzzle in Pakistan: A Preliminary Analysis By Amjad, Rashid
  4. Finance and economic development in Islam, historical perspective By Cizakca, Murat
  5. "Riba in La-riba contracts: where to turn in Islamic home financing? By Hasan, Zubair
  6. Russian interbank networks: main characteristics and stability with respect to contagion By A. V. Leonidov; E. L. Rumyantsev
  7. Domestic capital investment By Olga Izryadnova
  8. Russia's Financial Markets Development Forecast till 2020 By Àlexey Vedev
  9. Production Macrostructure in Russia in 2011 By Olga Izryadnova
  10. Export Barriers in Pakistan: Results of a Firm-Level Survey By Amjad, Rashid; Ghani, Ejaz; Din, Musleh ud; Mahmood, Tariq
  11. Problems of Rural Development in the Wake of the Municipal Reform in Russia By Irina Starodubrovskaya; Nina Mironova
  12. Trade in a'green growth'development strategy : global scale issues and challenges By de Melo, Jaime
  13. RUSSIAN ECONOMY AS THE HOSTAGE OF HIGH OIL PRICES By Sergey Drobyshevsky
  14. Export Duties on Oil and Oil Products: Cancel Expediency and Scenario Analysis By Yuri Bobylev; Georgy Idrisov; Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev
  15. Moody Oil - What is Driving the Crude Oil Price? By Filippo Lechthaler; Lisa Leinert
  16. Military Economy and the Military Reform in Russia in 2011 By Vasily Zatsepin; Vitaly Tsymbal; Elena Trofimova
  17. Are you what you eat? Experimental evidence on risk preferences and health habits By Miraldo, M; Galizzi, MM
  1. By: Pessoa, Argentino
    Abstract: Nowadays, policy makers in charge of designing innovation policies, especially at the regional level, are more and more looking at the cluster approach either with a view to accelerate the existing clusters or for providing the basis for the emergence of new ones. In fact, not only as a consequence of their appeal as an interactive and territorially embedded vision of innovation but also owing to a lot of other reasons, clusters are usually considered as key instruments for promoting competitiveness, industrial development, innovation and growth. But, although cluster policies have a potential for generating benefits, the presence of potential benefits from cluster initiatives is not per se a sufficient foundation or a validation for policymakers to get involved, since clustering is something that has been happening spontaneously during time. The key question is whether and how policymakers can add value through appropriate measures, beyond the outcomes that markets and market players produce on their own. While there is an extensive literature that focuses on the cluster analysis, the connection between clusters and policy has been mainly ignored. This paper tries to shed light on this issue, highlighting the key features of both the cluster concept and policy. It also aims at contributing to diminish the existing gap between theory and policy comparing two broad models of cluster policy: the Asian and the OECD approach.
    Keywords: agglomeration; clusters; cluster policy; innovation; competitiveness; externalities; regional economic development
    JEL: R58 R1 L26 R11
    Date: 2012–10–17
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:42024&r=cwa
  2. By: Agnieszka Gehringer
    Abstract: In a dynamic panel framework, I investigate the qualitative aspects of factors determining current account imbalances in (country groupings within) the European Union. I consider the standard determinants of current account positions discussed in the past literature, but additionally, I include a series of explanatory variables that refer to the sectoral composition of the European economies and that could have significantly contributed to the current account developments in the past decades. Independently of the econometric method used, the main finding suggests that the economic predominance of the construction sector might have played an important role in aggravating current account positions in the European economies. In parallel, some negative influence could be found for some other service sectors, but this shouldn’t be of much concern due to their role played in the growth process.
    Keywords: current account determinants; construction sector; European Union
    JEL: F32 F34 F36
    Date: 2012–10–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:cegedp:142&r=cwa
  3. By: Amjad, Rashid
    Abstract: This article discusses the impact of the current stagflation in Pakistan on the labor market and poverty. The paper presents a preliminary explanation of why the labor market and poverty impact of the current stagflation may be far smaller than projected in recent studies, especially for the rural economy. The main conclusions that emerge are that (1) The overwhelming expected negative impact of low economic growth, high double-digit inflation, and crippling energy shortages on poverty and the labor market appear to have been cushioned by the large increase in remittances, rising wages in agriculture and services, and social safety nets; (2) there is, however, no reason for complacency since over 20 million people live in absolute poverty and that the economy remains in deep stagflation, (3) the PSLM (HIES) 2010/11 data should be made publicly available so that it can be subject to more critical analysis and (4) studies on poverty should be based on a close integration of macro-sectoral–micro-factors to fully capture the underlying “poverty dynamics.”
    Keywords: Macro-dynamics; economic growth; cycles; Pakistan
    JEL: P46 F43
    Date: 2012–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:41976&r=cwa
  4. By: Cizakca, Murat
    Abstract: ABSTRACT This article first identifies the basic theoretical characteristics of an Islamic economy as discussed by contemporary Muslim economists. Then inquires whether these characteristics were ever implemented in history. The next question tackled concerns the consequences. The author asks whether an Islamic economy has ever led to sustained economic growth. In view of the powerful evidence, the answer to the question is a resounding and definitive, `yes`. An attempt has also been made to explain the institutional mechanisms by which this success has been achieved. Finally, the question of decline is also tackled followed by policy proposals to remedy the situation.
    Keywords: Islamic capitalism; economic development and Islam;Economic decline and Islam
    JEL: Z12 N00 N40
    Date: 2012–10–18
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:42046&r=cwa
  5. By: Hasan, Zubair
    Abstract: This note demonstrates that the Msharakah Mutanaqisa home financing model is worsethan the conventional interest bearing loan financing; it is not only based oncompounding of return italso passes the ownership to the customer at a slower rate. The purpose is to draw attention of the Shari'ah scholars, bankers and regulators of Islamic bankers with a view to elisit comments for editing before its publication.
    Keywords: Islamic ban on interest; Compounding of return on investment; Islamic verdict
    JEL: G28 G21
    Date: 2012–04–15
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:38166&r=cwa
  6. By: A. V. Leonidov; E. L. Rumyantsev
    Abstract: Systemic risks characterizing the Russian overnight interbank market from the network point of view are analyzed.
    Date: 2012–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1210.3814&r=cwa
  7. By: Olga Izryadnova (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with Russia’s capital investments in 2011.
    Keywords: Russia’s capital investments
    JEL: F34 G24
    Date: 2012
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:45&r=cwa
  8. By: Àlexey Vedev (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Issue is devoted to an actual problem to which is still given not enough attention – a problem of long-term forecasting of national financial sector as a component of an economic complex. Problems of a forecast of development of the financial markets coordination with economic development of the country, on the one hand, and with a forecast of development of the global financial market, on the other hand are considered. Balances of the major financial instruments and institutional balances of the main sectors the economy in aggregate forming complex financial balance of the country are constructed in paper. On this basis the forecast of development of the financial markets for the period till 2020, based on assumptions of the balanced scenario is created. Besides, possibilities and transition conditions to higher growth rates of the financial market under assumption of stability are defined.
    Keywords: long-term forecasting , national financial sector, financial markets
    JEL: C01 E01 E02 E50 E61
    Date: 2012
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:66&r=cwa
  9. By: Olga Izryadnova (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with Russia’s marcoeconomic structure. The author analyzes major trends and drivers, major GDP characteristics, changes in GDP structure, production development and structure by type of economic activity.
    Keywords: Russian economy, Russia’s GDP
    JEL: O11 G18 G28
    Date: 2012
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:44&r=cwa
  10. By: Amjad, Rashid; Ghani, Ejaz; Din, Musleh ud; Mahmood, Tariq
    Abstract: This study attempts to evaluate exporters’ perceptions of the problems they face in exploiting their full competitive potential in the international market. Using firm-level survey data, we find that a shortage of skilled labor, the energy crisis, institutional rigidities, market imperfections, and weaknesses in physical infrastructure are the key impediments to achieving export competitiveness. Policies geared toward improving the quality of skilled labor, resolving the energy crisis, and reducing transaction costs by improving the institutional and physical infrastructure are key to expanding Pakistan’s exports on a sustained basis.
    Keywords: Pakistan; export competitiveness; exporting procedures; certifications
    JEL: F13
    Date: 2012–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:41978&r=cwa
  11. By: Irina Starodubrovskaya (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Nina Mironova (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This publication addresses theoretical and practical aspects of rural life in Russia. The authors developed approaches to enhance rural evelopment in the framework of regional managerial strategies. Operation of the institutions of local development in Arhkangelsk oblast and the Republic of Karelia are investigated. Objective preconditions, constraints, institutional circumstances and the most preferable mechanisms of ensuring development on various types of rural territories are studied. The influence of municipal reform on all these issues is also demonstrated.
    Keywords: Rural Development, Municipal Reform, Russia
    JEL: H30 K10 R00
    Date: 2012
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:69&r=cwa
  12. By: de Melo, Jaime
    Abstract: This paper surveys the state of knowledge about the trade-related environmental consequences of a country's development strategy along three channels: (i) direct trade-environment linkages (overexploitation of natural resources and trade-related transport costs); (ii)'virtual trade'in emissions resulting from production activities; and (iii) the product mix attributes of a'green-growth'strategy (environmentally preferable products and goods for environmental management). Trade exacerbates over-exploitation of natural resources in weak institutional environments, but there is little evidence that differences in environmental policies across countries has led to significant'pollution havens.'Trade policies to'level the playing field'would be ineffective and result in destructive conflicts in the World Trade Organization. Lack of progress at the Doha Round suggests the need to modify the current system of global policy making.
    Keywords: Environmental Economics&Policies,Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets
    Date: 2012–10–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6236&r=cwa
  13. By: Sergey Drobyshevsky (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper is about the bane of the Russian economy: rich oil and gas reserves, which hamper the implementation of structural economic reforms. Oil industry forms the backbone of the Russian economy playing a major role in ensuring revenues of the government budget and the country’s favorable trade balance.
    Keywords: Russian economy, Russia’s oil-and-gas sector.
    JEL: L71 L72
    Date: 2012
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:wpaper:0036&r=cwa
  14. By: Yuri Bobylev (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Georgy Idrisov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The existing mechanism of gaining resource rent from the national resources sale represents a way to cover inefficient mainly one economic sector – oil refining. National oil refining in the world prices has been producing negative value added for over twenty years. Present research provides analysis of the consequences, which can come from the cancellation of the export duty on oil and oil products as a necessary step to stimulate the energy efficiency of Russia’s economy and to eliminate underdevelopment from a long term subsidizing of inefficient oil refining sector.
    Keywords: Export Duties, Oil, Oil Products
    JEL: F14 H21 L71 Q3
    Date: 2012
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:67&r=cwa
  15. By: Filippo Lechthaler (ETH Zurich, Switzerland); Lisa Leinert (ETH Zurich, Switzerland)
    Abstract: The unparalleled surge of the crude oil price after 2003 has triggered a heated scientific and public debate about its ultimate causes. Unexpected demand growth particularly from emerging economies appears to be the most prominently supported reason among academics. We study the price dynamics after 2003 in the global crude oil market using a structural VAR model. We account for structural breaks and approximate market expectations using a time series for media sentiment in order to contribute to the existing literature. We and that forward-looking demand activities rather than demand arising from current needs have played an important role for the run-up in the price of crude oil after 2003. We additionally and that emerging economies have not majorly contributed to the price surge
    Keywords: Oil Price; Spot Market; Futures Market; Fundamentals; Speculation; Financialization
    JEL: Q43 Q41 C32 D8 E3
    Date: 2012–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eth:wpswif:12-168&r=cwa
  16. By: Vasily Zatsepin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Vitaly Tsymbal (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Elena Trofimova (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The transition to “a new image” of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation that started back in 2008 and continued through 2011 was clearly planned, as the Russian top military leaders affirmed. In practice, however, these plans proved to be “unbaked” and required online corrections and removal of deficiencies. This paper deals with the acute issues of the Russian Military Reform throughout 2011.
    Keywords: military reform, Russian Federation, conscription, defence policy
    JEL: D74 F52 F53 H56
    Date: 2012
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:49&r=cwa
  17. By: Miraldo, M; Galizzi, MM
    Date: 2012–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imp:wpaper:9792&r=cwa
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