|
on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Marcus Noland (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Donghyun Park (Asian Development Bank); Gemma B. Estrada (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | The maturing of the manufacturing sector in many Asian countries, combined with the relative backwardness of its services sector, has made services sector development a top priority for developing Asia. Our central objective is to broadly survey and analyze the current landscape of the region's services sector so as to assess its potential to serve as an engine for inclusive economic growth. Our analysis indicates that services are already an important source of output, growth, and jobs in the region. However, its productivity greatly lags that of the advanced economies, which implies ample room for further growth. The impact of services sector on poverty reduction is less clear but we do find some limited evidence of a poverty reduction effect. One key challenge for all Asian countries is to improve the quality of services sector data. Overall, while services sector development is a long and challenging process, creating more competitive services markets by removing a wide range of internal and external policy distortions is vital for improving services sector productivity. As important as such policy reforms are, complementary investments in physical infrastructure and human capital will also be necessary to achieve a strong services sector. |
| Keywords: | Services, structural change, growth, productivity, Asia |
| JEL: | L8 O14 O40 O47 |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp12-18&r=cwa |
| By: | Cizakca, Murat |
| Abstract: | Once considered to be one of the greatest civilizations of earth, Islamic West Asia declined dramatically from the 13th century onward. This article examines this phenomenon and tries to draw some lessons and policy suggestions for the contemporary peoples of the region. |
| Keywords: | West Asia; Islamic world; Indian Ocean; economic decline |
| JEL: | Z12 N15 P48 |
| Date: | 2012–10–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:41877&r=cwa |
| By: | Jeffrey J. Schott (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Minsoo Lee (Asian Development Bank); Julia Muir (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | Trade and investment in services are difficult to measure, and the regulatory barriers that inhibit the free flow of services are hard to quantify. As a result, very little attention has been paid to dismantling barriers to services trade and investment in free trade negotiations. This paper examines what has been achieved in both regional and multilateral compacts by surveying international precedents involving Asian countries which have included services trade reforms. We then assess the prospects for services trade negotiations and explore how services trade negotiations could be pursued over the next decade through two distinct channels: the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and a plurilateral approach among groups of WTO countries. We find that in the case of developing Asia, free trade agreements have largely excluded services or have only committed to "lock in" current practices in a narrow subset of service sectors. This is also the case in agreements negotiated between developing countries, which have produced less substantial commitments to liberalize services than those negotiated between developing and developed countries. Multilateral negotiations on services have also underperformed, as substantive negotiations on services in the Doha Round never really got underway. We advocate a stronger effort by developing Asian countries to prioritize services negotiations in their regional arrangements, and to expand coverage of services in those pacts to a broad range of infrastructure services that are included in other FTAs in force or under construction in the Asia-Pacific region. |
| Keywords: | International trade, services, regional trade agreements, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, General Agreement on Trade in Services, Doha Round, Trans-Pacific Partnership, Asia-Pacific |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F14 F15 F23 F59 G28 H50 H70 |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp12-17&r=cwa |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Peter Havlik (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | A functioning Belarus-Russia-Kazakhstan Customs Union (BRK-CU) would comprise the bulk of the FSU economy and represent a significant step towards an attempted re-integration of the FSU – even more so if Ukraine were also to join. There are still important structural differences in intra-regional compared to extra-regional trade of these countries, regarding exports in particular. The existing specialization patterns and comparative advantages may – apart from purely political considerations – provide some economic rationale for closer trade integration. Our difference-in-difference gravity-based estimates indicate that during the period 1999-2009 liberalization took place primarily in the trade of Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine with third countries, whereas in their mutual trade barriers in many manufacturing and services sectors actually increased. The BRK-CU largely eliminated the remaining non-tariff barriers in mutual trade and, upon the adoption of a Common External Tariff (CET) in 2010, unified the participating countries’ trade policies vis-à-vis third countries. As a result of CET adoption, the average (un-weighted) level of protection declined by about 2 p.p. in Russia and 1.3 p.p. in Belarus, but increased by around 2.5 p.p. in Kazakhstan. Available estimates of the economic effects of the BRK-CU differ by a wide margin. Our computable general equilibrium (CGE) estimation results suggest that joining the BRK-CU might potentially bring net GDP losses to Ukraine. BRK-CU membership appears to bring net GDP and welfare losses also to Kazakhstan whereas Belarus and Russia benefit in terms of GDP and labour income growth. There seems to be little (economic) justification for Russia prompting Ukraine to join the BRK-CU. Ukraine, on the other hand, is likely to have a significant increase in GDP and real labour income after implementing the DCFTA with the EU. |
| Keywords: | foreign trade, integration, Customs Union, gravity and CGE modelling, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine |
| JEL: | C5 F1 F5 P3 |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:381&r=cwa |
| By: | Maravalle, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates whether the growing GDP share of the services sector can contribute to explain the great moderation in the US. We identify and analyze three oil price shocks and use a SVAR analysis to measure their economic impact on the US economy at both the aggregate and the sectoral level. We find mixed support for the explanation of the great moderation in terms of shrinking oil shock volatilities and observe that increases (decreases) in oil shock volatilities are contrasted by a weakening (strengthening) in their transmission mechanism. Across sectors, services are the least affected by any oil shock. As the contribution of services to the GDP volatility increases over time, we conclude that a composition effect contributed to moderate the conditional volatility to oil shocks of the US GDP. |
| Keywords: | oil price shocks, great moderation, services, structural change |
| JEL: | Q43 E32 C32 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehu:dfaeii:8766&r=cwa |
| By: | Christopher Garroway; Juan Ramón de Laiglesia |
| Abstract: | Poverty is typically measured in different ways in developing and advanced countries. The majority of developing countries measure poverty in absolute terms, using a poverty line determined by the monetary cost of a predetermined basket of goods. In contrast, most analyses of poverty in advanced countries, including the majority of OECD countries and Eurostat, measure poverty in relative terms, setting the poverty line as a share of the average or median standard of living in a country. This difference in how social outcomes are measured makes it difficult to share experiences in social policy design and implementation. This paper argues that policy analysis should rely on both relative poverty – measured as a share of the median standard of living – and absolute measures. As countries reduce extreme absolute poverty, concerns of social inclusion, better represented by relative poverty lines, become increasingly relevant. Anchoring the poverty line to median welfare makes the poverty line dependent on distributional parameters beyond the mean, thus allowing for poverty lines that differ across countries with the same level of income per capita. The paper derives and presents relative poverty headcount ratios from publicly available grouped data for 114 countries. An examination of the trends in absolute and relative poverty in Brazil, China and the United States uncovers commonalities that are not apparent if the analysis focuses on national poverty lines or different concepts across countries.<BR>Les pays développés et les pays en développement mesurent en général la pauvreté de façon différente. La plupart des pays en développement utilise des mesures absolues de la pauvreté, à l’aide d’un seuil de pauvreté défini par la valeur monétaire d’un panier de biens prédéterminé. Par contre, la plupart des analyses de la pauvreté dans des pays développés, y compris dans la plupart des pays de l’OCDE et des institutions telles que Eurostat utilisent des mesures relatives de la pauvreté, avec un seuil de pauvreté définie par une proportion fixe du niveau de vie moyen ou médian dans un pays. Ces différences de mesure rendent plus difficile le partage d’expériences en formulation et mise en oeuvre de politiques sociales. Ce document soutient que l’analyse des politiques publiques devrait reposer sur en même temps sur des mesures absolues et relatives, ces dernières se rapportant à une proportion du niveau de vie médian. Les questions d’inclusion sociale, qui sont mieux prises en compte par des lignes de pauvreté relatives, voient leur importance croitre au fur et à mesure que les pays réduisent la pauvreté absolue. Du fait de l’ancrage du seuil de pauvreté à la médiane de la mesure de bien-être, le seuil de pauvreté dépend de paramètres de la distribution au-delà du niveau de vie moyen, ce qui permet aux seuils de pauvreté d’être différents pour des pays avec le même revenu par habitant. Le document présente des taux de pauvreté relative calculés à partir de données disponibles au public pour 114 pays. Une analyse des tendances des mesures absolue et relative de la pauvreté pour le Brésil, la Chine et les États-Unis relève des points communs qui demeurent cachés si l’analyse se concentre uniquement sur les seuils de pauvreté nationaux ou sur des concepts de mesure propres à chaque pays. |
| Keywords: | relative poverty, poverty measurement, poverty in developing countries, pauvreté relative, mesure de la pauvreté, pauvreté et développement |
| JEL: | I32 O10 Y10 |
| Date: | 2012–09–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:devaaa:314-en&r=cwa |
| By: | Jirada Prasartpornsirichoke (Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University); Yoshi Takahashi (Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University); Peera Charoenporn (Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to investigate that the international cross-sectional comparison of inequalities in human capital and education among 16 Asian countries. More specifically we employed the order-ranking of Gini coefficients that is workable in empirical studies as well as that of Lorenz curves sequenced from basic pairwise Lorenz dominance comparisons of 240 cases. The latter is provided as an alternative measure of education and human capital distribution in comparison with the former measure. Our major finding is rank correlation coefficients between both measures of both inequalities are high and significant but not unity. At least in this data set, the rankings of inequalities in education and human capital from two measures are able to apply in empirics. Gini index of both inequalities were calculated from Cohen & Soto's educational attainment data-set during 1960-2010; ten-year interval period. Data obtained from these Asian countries is computed to confirm the relationship education, human capital, and their inequalities. We found the negative linear relationship between average years of schooling and its Gini while the relationship between stock of human capital and its Gini becomes inverted-U shape curve. |
| Keywords: | Inequality in education and human capital, Gini index, Lorenz curves, pair-wise comparison |
| JEL: | J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hir:idecdp:2-14&r=cwa |
| By: | Rita van Deuren (Maastricht School of Management) |
| Abstract: | Higher education (HE) is increasingly recognized for its contribution to socio-economic development, both in developed and developing countries. Investments in HE are investments in human capital leading to public and private returns. This recognition has contributed to the worldwide trend of massification of HE. Furthermore and related to this trend of massification, the HE sector is confronted with increased student mobility, a diversified student body, inequalities in access, growth of information and communication tools, increased autonomy, growing demands for accountability and debates on financing higher education. The HE context poses many challenges for higher education institutions (HEI), especially in developing countries: challenges that need to be overcome in order to show adequate performance. This paper discusses the main challenges faced by HEI in developing countries. Covered are themes such as managing expansion, maintaining and improving quality standards, funding, improving labour market relatedness, increasing managerial capacity and implementing new forms of teaching and learning. It is argued that enhancement of organizational capacity of HEI is considered a prerequisite for meeting these challenges and for showing increased performance. The concept of capacity development, as a deliberate and goal oriented process aimed at increasing organizational capacity, is introduced. The paper ends by demonstrating that research on capacity development in HEI in developing countries is likely to contribute to performance of HEI and thereby to wider national socio-economic welfare. |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msm:wpaper:2012/16&r=cwa |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | <UL> <LI>An upper secondary qualification (ISCED 3) has become the norm for young people in OECD countries. Today it is considered the minimum qualification for successful participation in the labour market and for integration in society.</LI> <LI>In 2010, across OECD countries, 19.1% of 25-34 year-olds without an upper secondary qualification were unemployed, compared with 9.8% of young adults of the same age who had an upper secondary qualification.</LI> <LI>From 2004 to 2008, increasing upper secondary graduation rates coincided with declining numbers of 20-24 year-olds who were neither in education nor employed; but during the economic crisis, an upper secondary qualification no longer provided sufficient insurance against unemployment and poverty.</LI></UL> |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaaf:7-en&r=cwa |
| By: | Guanghua Wan |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msm:wpaper:2012/33&r=cwa |
| By: | Patricia Justino (Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex, UK) |
| Abstract: | Processes of conflict and violence are central to how shared societies are built and sustained. Very few countries in the world have supported systems of justice, equality and democracy without some amount of bloodshed. At the same time, violence and conflict threaten the principles and values underlying the concept of shared societies. Today, 1.5 billion people are affected by armed conflict. Conflict-affected countries contain one-third of those living in extreme poverty, and are responsible for over half of all child mortality in the world. Kaldor (1999) and Kaplan (1994) have famously discussed the wave of new brutal civil wars that have erupted after the Cold War. The view that modern civil wars are more brutal and senseless than ever before has been contested (Kalyvas 2001), while the incidence of internal armed conflict has decreased in recent years (Harbom and Wallensteen 2009). However, the legacy of violence persists in many countries, affecting the sustainability of global development, international peace and democracy-building processes worldwide, as well as disrupting the living conditions of millions of women, men and children. Armed conflict remains one of the most important challenges facing the world today. This paper examines how the interplay between economic exclusion, inequality, conflict and violence shape the goal of establishing shared societies. I argue that this impact is largely determined by the emergence and organisation of social and political institutions in areas of violent conflict. In particular, violence will persist as a means to solve social conflicts when institutional processes that promote exclusion, dysfunctional inequalities and injustice remain entrenched in societies. Two particular areas of institutional change are central to understanding the relationship between armed conflict and shared societies, defined as ‘socially cohesive societies’. The first is the change caused by armed conflict on social interactions and norms of trust and cooperation. The second is the influence exercised by informal mediators, informal service providers and, in some cases, informal systems of governance that emerge from uneven development processes and are particularly prevalent in areas of armed conflict. These forms of institutional transformation that emerge from armed conflict, and in turn determine its sustainability, have remained unexplored in the literature. Yet they are central to understanding how societies are able to restrict the use of violence as a strategic way of resolving social conflicts. This paper attempts to disentangle these important institutional mechanisms that shape the transition from conflict-ridden to shared societies. |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msm:wpaper:2012/35&r=cwa |
| By: | Berk, Istemi (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln); Aydogan, Berna (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of crude oil price variations on the Turkish stock market returns. We have employed vector autoregression (VAR) model using daily observations of Brent crude oil prices and Istanbul Stock Exchange National Index (ISE-100) returns for the period between January 2, 1990 and November 1, 2011. We have also tested the relationship between oil prices and stock market returns under global liquidity conditions by incorporating a liquidity proxy variable, Chicago Board of Exchange’s (CBOE) S&P 500 market volatility index (VIX), into the model. Variance decomposition test results suggest little empirical evidence that crude oil price shocks have been rationally evaluated in the Turkish stock market. Rather, it was global liquidity conditions that were found to account for the greatest amount of variation in stock market returns. |
| Keywords: | Oil Price Shocks; Stock Returns; Liquidity; VAR Model |
| JEL: | C58 G15 Q43 Q47 |
| Date: | 2012–10–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:ewikln:2012_015&r=cwa |
| By: | Yanrui Wu (Business School, University of Western Australia) |
| Abstract: | Electricity market reform has been implemented in many countries and regions in the world. There is no doubt that electricity consumption continues to increase in East Asia. Electricity market integration in East Asia is thus an important component of the energy market integration (EMI) initiatives supported by the East Asian Summit (EAS) group. It is argued that an integrated East Asian electricity market would allow consumers to have access to competing suppliers within or beyond the borders and enable electricity providers in member economies to better deal with peak demand and supply security. The objectives of this study are twofold, namely, a) to present a review of the trends in regional electricity market integration and b) to draw implications for electricity market development in the EAS area. Specifically, this project will review the trends of integration in the world’s major electricity markets and analyze the experience and lessons in those markets. It will provide an examination of the electricity sectors in East Asia in terms of market development and connectivity. It will provide policy recommendations for the promotion of electricity market integration. |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwa:wpaper:12-19&r=cwa |