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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Ravallion, Martin |
| Abstract: | Against what standards should we judge the developing world's overall performance against poverty going forward? The paper proposes two measures, each with both"optimistic"and"ambitious"targets for 2022, 10 years from the time of writing. The first measure is absolute consumption poverty, as judged by what"poverty"means in the poorest countries. The second is a new relative poverty measure, embracing social inclusion needs consistently with national poverty lines. The optimistic benchmark would entail an absolute poverty rate of 9 percent in 2022, and a relative poverty rate of 40 percent. The more ambitious targets would bring the absolute rate down to 3 percent and the relative rate to 33 percent. The optimistic target would maintain the (impressive) progress against poverty of the last 20 years, without global crises to stall that progress. The ambitious target would require about a 1 percentage point higher growth rate for the gross domestic product of the developing world, as long as this did not come with a reduction in the household sector's share or any further increase in overall inequality after its level in 2008. Alternatively, the 3 percent target could be reached at currently expected growth rates but at the lower level of inequality in 1999. |
| Keywords: | Rural Poverty Reduction,Achieving Shared Growth,Regional Economic Development,Inequality |
| Date: | 2012–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6205&r=cwa |
| By: | Bierbaum, Mira; Gassmann, Franziska (UNU-MERIT/MGSoG) |
| Abstract: | The Kyrgyz Republic has enjoyed remarkable success in poverty reduction in recent years. Poverty headcounts were halved between 2005 (63.9 per cent) and 2008 (31.3 per cent), before they slightly increased again to 33.7 per cent (2010). However, these aggregate figures mask individual or household trajectories into and out of poverty. Additionally, the question arises as to who has remained poor for an extended duration, i.e. has been chronic poor. Since the panel component of the Kyrgyz Integrated Household Survey suffers from shortcomings, a synthetic panel based on repeated cross-sections is created to investigate poverty persistence and dynamics between 2005 and 2010, following an approach proposed by Dang, Lanjouw, Luoto, and McKenzie (2011). The share of chronic poor ranges between 23.6 per cent-31.5 per cent; that is to say, 74.8 per cent-80.2 per cent of the people classified as poor in 2010 have experienced it for an extended duration. At least two chronic poverty traps are identified: Spatial disadvantages occur in the rural oblasts of Jalal-Abad, Talas, and Naryn that are characterized by adverse topography and low levels of human capital. Moreover, poor work opportunities, particularly employment in informal, low-paid sectors with high income-insecurity, hinder escapes from poverty. These spatial and social traps coincide. Few people fell into poverty between 2005 and 2008, but the picture is more volatile in the years following the fuel and food crisis and the global financial and economic crisis. People employed in informal sectors are more vulnerable to economic downturns, leading to questions regarding the scope, extent and level of existing social safety nets. |
| Keywords: | Poverty, chronic and transitory poverty, poverty reduction synthetic panel, Kyrgyz Republic |
| JEL: | I32 C33 P36 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:unumer:2012064&r=cwa |
| By: | Paolo Liberati |
| Abstract: | This paper provides for the first time a full decomposition of world inequality, as measured by the Gini coefficient, in the period 1970-2009. In particular, using the Analysis of Gini (ANOGI), the paper describes the evolution of between inequality, within inequality and the impact of overlapping on both factors. While there is evidence that between inequality in the last decade significantly declines due to the rapid Chinese growth, within inequality and overlapping go in the opposite direction. Furthermore, if one makes exception for some Asian countries, the rest of the world does not move significantly. As a result, world inequality remains high by any standard. |
| Keywords: | World Inequality; Gini Coefficient; ANOGI; Lognormal |
| JEL: | I31 H00 |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0163&r=cwa |
| By: | Clark, Andrew E. (Paris School of Economics); Flèche, Sarah (Paris School of Economics); Senik, Claudia (Paris School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that within-country happiness inequality has fallen in the majority of countries that have experienced positive income growth over the last forty years, in particular in developed countries. This new stylized fact comes as an addition to the Easterlin paradox, which states that the time trend in average happiness is flat during episodes of long-run income growth. This mean-preserving declining spread in happiness comes about via falls in both the share of individuals who declare low and high levels of happiness. Rising income inequality moderates the fall in happiness inequality, and may even reverse it after some point, for example in the US starting in the 1990s. Hence, if raising the income of all does not raise the happiness of all, it will at least harmonize the happiness of all, providing that income inequality does not grow too much. Behind the veil of ignorance, lower happiness inequality would certainly be considered as attractive by risk-averse individuals. |
| Keywords: | happiness, inequality, economic growth, development, Easterlin paradox |
| JEL: | D31 D6 I3 O15 |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6761&r=cwa |
| By: | Syed Muhammad, Atif; Sardar, Mohazzam |
| Abstract: | The mantra of inclusive growth is taking over the public policy debates addressing poverty alleviation and sustained development in the developing world. In order to reduce poverty substantially, rapid pace of growth is not only necessary, but it should be sustainable in the long run and broad-based across sectors, nonetheless, inclusive of country’s labour force at large. Poverty and growth were much discussed and analysed in separation by policymakers in the previous decades. Inclusive growth strategy is an integration of these two strands of analyses implying relationship between the macro and micro determinants of growth. This paper examines the nature of relationship between the macroeconomic and social-development indicators by using a Multiple Regression Framework and Vector Auto Regression Model, as proposed by Toda-Yamamoto, is used to determine the direction of causality between the key macroeconomic variables of Pakistan over the period of 1997-98s to 2009-10. The paper critically examines Inclusive growth paradigm ─ for market led growth, and suggests its weaknesses which can be addressed through review of the pro-poor goals of economic policy of Post Washington Consensus (PWC). Finally, the paper urges to explore the myths and realities of inclusive growth strategies for policymakers in Pakistan to identify and prioritize the Pakistan specific constraints i.e. Low spending on health and education, promote growth in agriculture and rural development for sustained and inclusive growth. |
| Keywords: | Inclusive growth; development economics; Pakistan |
| JEL: | E62 C32 I28 |
| Date: | 2012–07–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:41376&r=cwa |
| By: | Hamanaka, Shintaro (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | In understanding the proliferation of free trade agreements (FTAs) in Asia since 2000, it is important to distinguish between two types of FTAs in terms of a legal basis on either General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) Article XXIV or the Enabling Clause. The latter provision can be used when an FTA involves only developing countries. While there are a total of 34 Enabling Clause-based FTAs in effect around the globe, more than half of them are located in Asia. Moreover, the way the Enabling Clause is used by developing countries in Asia is very different from other regions. Outside of Asia, the Enabling Clause is usually used to form a plurilateral FTA that has an accession clause, which envisages gradual evolution into a subregion-wide cooperative agreement. In contrast, in Asia, developing counties started to use the Enabling Clause to sign bilateral FTAs in 2000. Such an innovative way of using the Enabling Clause is one of the main contributors to the recent proliferation of FTAs in Asia. This paper also considers the implications of this proliferation in Asia on the openness of Asian regionalism. |
| Keywords: | Free Trade Agreements (FTAs); Enabling Clause; GATT Article XXIV; open regionalism; bilateralism |
| JEL: | F13 F15 |
| Date: | 2012–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbrei:0102&r=cwa |
| By: | Konstantins Benkovskis; Julia Wörz |
| Abstract: | We analyse EMEs global competitiveness whereby we explicitly take account of non-price aspects of competitiveness building on the methodology developed in Feenstra (1994) and Broda and Weinstein (2006) and the extension provided in Benkovskis and Wörz (2012). We construct an export price index which adjusts for changes in the set of competitors (variety) and changes in non-price factors (quality in a broad sense) for a set of nine large emerging economies (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey). We use a highly disaggregated data set at the detailed 6-digit HS level over the period 1999-2010. In contrast to the conclusions based on the CPI-based real effective exchange rate we find that there are rather pronounced differences between individual markets. As a first and important result, China shows a huge gain in international competitiveness due to non-price factors thus suggesting that the role of Renminbi undervaluation for China’s competitive position may be overstressed. The strong improvements in Russia's non-price competitiveness are exclusively due to developments in the oil sector as are the competitive losses observed for Argentina and Indonesia. Further, Brazil, Chile, India, and Turkey show discernible improvements in their competitive position when accounting for non-price factors while Mexico's competitiveness has deteriorated regardless of the index chosen. |
| Keywords: | non-price competitiveness, quality, relative export price, emerging countries |
| JEL: | C43 F12 F14 L15 |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2012:i:100&r=cwa |
| By: | Surafel Girma; Yundan Gong; Holger Görg; Sandra Lancheros |
| Abstract: | We examine the role of foreign ownership structure in stimulating technology and skill upgrading, and exporting in Chinese manufacturing firms that were taken over by foreign owners. The analysis considers the period 2001 to 2007. We use a propensity score reweighted least squares estimation to control for the possible endogeneity of the acquisition decision. Our results indicate that there are strong effects on export activity post-acquisition for all types of ownership share. We also find that targets that are taken over with a less than 100 per cent foreign ownership share experience increases in new product development and R&D upgrading due to the acquisition. Overall, our results suggest that joint ventures between foreign owners and Chinese firms can contribute positively to China’s “science and technology take-off” |
| Keywords: | Chinese manufacturing |
| JEL: | O14 |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kie:kieliw:1793&r=cwa |
| By: | Bailey, Jonathan (Harvard University); Lee, Henry (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | Expanding estimates of North America's supply of accessible shale gas, and more recently, shale oil, have been trumpeted in many circles as the most significant energy resource development since the oil boom in Texas in the late 1920s. How large are these resources? What challenges will need to be overcome if their potential is to be realized? How will they impact U.S. energy policy? To address these questions, the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and two of its programs, the Environment and Natural Resources Program and the Geopolitics of Energy Project, convened a group of experts from business, government, and academia on May 1, 2012, in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The following report summarizes the major issues discussed at this workshop. Since the discussions were off-the-record, no comments are attributed to any individual. Rather, this report attempts to summarize the arguments on all sides of the issues. The policy implications of significant additional supplies of domestic oil and gas to the United States are far ranging. Due to time constraints, many important issues were not covered in the depth that they deserved. Examples would include the impact of additional oil and gas supplies on existing U.S. efforts to reduce carbon emissions and its historical commitment to support other fuels, such as coal and nuclear power, or newer options, such as wind and solar energy. Further, as one participant pointed out, officials from industry are constrained under U.S. antitrust laws from sharing proprietary information. |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp12-039&r=cwa |
| By: | Görlach, Alexander |
| Abstract: | Despite the on-going crisis in the Eurozone, Alexander Görlach argues that the euro is far from dead. Instead, he says that if the Eurozone’s heads of state are willing to sacrifice some national sovereignty for more integration, it will become nothing less than the next reserve currency of the world. |
| Date: | 2012–07–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ner:lselon:http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/46122/&r=cwa |
| By: | MARUKAWA Tomoo |
| Abstract: | The global demand for photovoltaics (PVs), or solar cells, increased by 53 percent per annum during 2000 to 2010. Japanese PV manufacturers, which had been the leading force of the technological development of the industry since the 1970s, were in a good position to profit from this explosion of demand for PVs, but in 2010, about half of the global PV production was attributed to Chinese PV manufacturers which entered the industry only after 2002. This paper explains the reason for the dramatic rise of Chinese PV manufacturers and the decline of Japanese PV manufacturers. Through a detailed case study on Suntech Power, the largest PV producer since 2010, the paper identifies two points that have been critical for the rise of the Chinese PV industry: choice of technology and fundraising strategy. The paper also tries to shed new light on the understanding of the global value chain through a case study of the global PV value chain. |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:12051&r=cwa |
| By: | Shabbir, Safia |
| Abstract: | Using micro data on non-financial listed companies in Pakistan, over the period of 2000-2010, this paper emphasizes over the impact of monetary policy on economic growth through balance sheet channel. At first step, monetary tightening deteriorates the net worth of the firms and leads to cash flow squeeze; of which later affects the economic growth. We find this impact to last for three years over the balance sheets of the firms. Since, industrial sector drives the economic growth; we forecast corporate profitability at the second step. Empirical investigation shows that corporate profitability reverts to its mean at the rate of 25 percent. During Peak, mean reversion is 30 percent while it is 19 percent during trough implying that recession stays relatively longer and economic revival is slow during recessionary phase. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; monetary transmission; balance sheet channel; forecasting; profitability |
| JEL: | E52 E50 H32 |
| Date: | 2012–09–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:41496&r=cwa |
| By: | Dilek Basar (Department of Economics, Hacettepe University); Sarah Brown (Department of Economics, The University of Sheffield); Arne Risa Hole (Department of Economics, The University of Sheffield) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the prevalence of ‘catastrophic’ out-of-pocket health expenditure in Turkey and identifies the factors which are associated with its risk using the Turkish Household Budget Surveys from 2002 to 2008. A sample selection approach based on Sartori (2003) is adopted to allow for the potential selection problem which may arise if poor households choose not to seek health care due to concerns regarding its affordability. The results suggest that poor households are less likely to seek health care as compared to non-poor households and that a negative relationship between poverty and experiencing catastrophic health expenditure remains even after allowing for such selection bias. Our findings, which may assist policy-makers concerned with health care system reforms, also highlight factors such as insurance coverage, which may protect households from the risk of incurring catastrophic health expenditure. |
| Keywords: | catastrophic health expenditure; health care financing; sample Selection |
| JEL: | I10 C25 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shf:wpaper:2012020&r=cwa |
| By: | Bhattacharya, Jay (Stanford University); Gathmann, Christina (University of Heidelberg); Miller, Grant (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | Political and economic transition is often blamed for Russia's 40% surge in deaths between 1990 and 1994 (the "Russian Mortality Crisis"). Highlighting that increases in mortality occurred primarily among alcohol related causes and among working-age men (the heaviest drinkers), this paper investigates an alternative explanation: the demise of the 1985-1988 Gorbachev Anti-Alcohol Campaign. We use archival sources to build a new oblast-year data set spanning 1970-2000 and find that: (1) The campaign was associated with substantially fewer campaign year deaths, (2) Oblasts with larger reductions in alcohol consumption and mortality during the campaign experienced larger transition era increases, and (3) Other former Soviet states and Eastern European countries exhibit similar mortality patterns commensurate with their campaign exposure. The campaign's end explains a large share of the mortality crisis, suggesting that Russia's transition to capitalism and democracy was not as lethal as commonly suggested. |
| Keywords: | mortality, transition, alcohol, Russia |
| JEL: | I18 I15 P35 P36 P37 |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6783&r=cwa |
| By: | Sofie Kragh Pedersen; Alexander K. Koch; Julia Nafziger (Department of Economics and Business, Aarhus University, Denmark) |
| Abstract: | Abstract Little is known about the demand side of paternalism. We investigate attitudes towards paternalism among Danish students. The main question is whether demand for paternalism is related to self-control, either because people with self-control problems seek commitment devices to overcome these problems, or because people with good self-control want those who lack it to change their behaviors. We find no evidence linking self-control to attitudes towards weak forms of paternalism (e.g. nudges or information about health consequences). But respondents with good selfcontrol are significantly more favorable towards strong paternalism (e.g. restricting choices or sin taxes) than those struggling with self-control. |
| Keywords: | Self-control, paternalism, commitment, political attitudes |
| JEL: | D03 H11 C83 D6 |
| Date: | 2012–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aah:aarhec:2012-22&r=cwa |
| By: | Allison, Graham (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | Twenty years ago Russia and fourteen other newly-independent states emerged from the ruins of the Soviet empire, many as nations for the first time in history. As is typical in the aftermath of the collapse of an empire, this was followed by a period of chaos, confusion, and corruption. As the saying went at the time, "everything is for sale." At that same moment, as the Soviet state imploded, 35,000 nuclear weapons remained at thousands of sites across a vast Eurasian landmass that stretched across eleven time zones. Today, fourteen of the fifteen successor states to the Soviet Union are nuclear weapons-free. When the U.S.S.R. disappeared, 3,200 strategic nuclear warheads remained in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus, most of them atop intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that stood on alert, ready to be fired at targets in the U.S. Today, every one of the nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus has been deactivated and returned to Russia, where they were dismantled and the nuclear material in the warheads blended down to produce fuel for civilian reactors. Strategic nuclear weapons are nuclear warheads aimed at an adversary's nuclear weapons, cities and military infrastructure. Typically, they are large in yield and heavy. Of greater interest to terrorists, however, were the former U.S.S.R's 22,000 tactical nuclear weapons with smaller yields and shorter ranges. These were designed primarily for battlefield use, with some small enough to fit into a duffel bag. Today, all of these have also been returned to Russia, leaving zero nuclear weapons in any other state of the former Soviet Union. Former Czech president Vaclav Havel observed about the rush of events in the 1990s: "things have changed so fast we have not yet taken time to be astonished." Perhaps the most astonishing fact about the past twenty years is something that did not happen. Despite the risk realistically estimated by former Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney in 3 What Happened to the Soviet Superpower's Nuclear Arsenal? Clues for the Nuclear Security Summit December 1991, two decades have passed without the discovery of a single nuclear weapon outside Russia. This paper will address the question: how did this happen? Looking ahead, it will consider what clues we can extract from the success in denuclearizing fourteen post-Soviet states that can inform our non-proliferation and nuclear security efforts in the future. These clues may inform leaders of the U.S., Russia, and other responsible nations attending the Seoul Nuclear Security Summit on March 26-27, 2012. The paper will conclude with specific recommendations, some exceedingly ambitious that world leaders could follow to build on the Seoul summit's achievements against nuclear terrorism in the period before the next summit in 2014. One of these would be to establish a Global Alliance Against Nuclear Terrorism. |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp12-038&r=cwa |