nep-cwa New Economics Papers
on Central and Western Asia
Issue of 2012‒09‒22
eighteen papers chosen by
Cherry Ann Santos
University of Melbourne

  1. Preparing for an Uncertain Future: Expanding Social Protection for Children in Eastern Europe and Central Asia By Deolinda Martins; Elena Gaia
  2. The Aims of Lifelong Learning: Age-Related Effects of Training on Wages and Job Security By Julia Lang
  3. The Impact of Social Activities on Cognitive Ageing: Evidence from Eleven European Countries By Dimitrios Christelis; Loreti I. Dobrescu
  4. The Pension Coverage Problem in the Private Sector By Alicia H. Munnell; Rebecca Cannon Fraenkel; Josh Hurwitz
  5. Essays on health and labor economics. By Hullegie, P.G.J.
  6. How Persistent is Social Capital? By Jan Fidrmuc
  7. Russian Inequality on the Eve of Revolution By Steven Nafziger; Peter H. Lindert
  8. Preliminary Study: Explaining the Ten-fold Increase in Remittances to Pakistan 2001-2012 By Rashid Amjad; G. M. Arif; M. Irfan
  9. Soverign Wealth Fund Issues and the National Fund(s) of Kazakhstan By David Kemme
  10. The Economic Causes and Consequences of Social Instability in China By Jobn Knight
  11. Demographic Dividends, Dependencies and Economic Growth in China and India By Jane Golley; Rod Tyers
  12. World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank, and Subregional Development Banks in Latin America: Dynamics of a System of Multilateral Development Banks By Prada, Fernando
  13. Regulation and electricity market integration: When trade introduces inefficiencies By Billette de Villemeur, Etienne; Pineau, Pierre-Olivier
  14. Economics of Energy and Climate Change: Origins, Developments and Growth By Roger Fouquet
  15. Changes in the Operational Efficiency of National Oil Companies By Peter R Hartley; Kenneth B. Medlock III
  16. Short Run Import Dynamics in Turkey By Altan Aldan; Ihsan Bozok; Mahmut Gunay
  17. Toward the Entrepreneurial Society By Jean Bonnet; Marcus Dejardin; Antonia Madrid-Guijarro
  18. Australian Fiscal Policy in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis By Ernst Juerg Weber

  1. By: Deolinda Martins; Elena Gaia (Division of Policy and Strategy,UNICEF)
    Abstract: Poverty disproportionately affects children in all CEECIS countries for which data is available. Social protection is needed to mitigate the lasting effects of the 2008/09 economic crisis in CEECIS, as well as the additional strains on households due to the Eurozone crisis, high unemployment, and recurring food/fuel price spikes. Existing social protection systems in the region need urgent reform: programmes for children need to reach more vulnerable families, provide higher allocations, and offer additional support services beyond cash.
    Keywords: children,protection systems,Eastern Europe, Central Asia, economic crisis,fuel price,food price.
    Date: 2012
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uce:wbrief:1202&r=cwa
  2. By: Julia Lang
    Abstract: This study analyses the effects of training participation on wages and perceived job security for employees of different ages. Based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, results indicate that only younger workers benefit from training by an increase in wages, whereas older employees’ worries about losing their job are reduced. This observation can also be explained by the fact that goals of training courses are related to the age of participants. Moreover, I differentiate between workers who permanently and only occasionally participate in training. The results indicate that there seem to be decreasing marginal returns to training with respect to job security.
    Keywords: Training, Wages, Job security
    JEL: J24 J28 J31 M53
    Date: 2012
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp478&r=cwa
  3. By: Dimitrios Christelis (CSEF and CFS); Loreti I. Dobrescu (University of New South Wales)
    Abstract: Using micro data from eleven European countries, we investigate the impact of being socially active on cognition in older age. Cognitive abilities are measured through scores on numeracy, fluency and recall tests. We address the endogeneity of social activities through panel data and instrumental variable methods. We find that social activities have an important positive effect on cognition, with the results varying by gender. Fluency is positively affected only in females, while numeracy only in males. Finally, recall is affected in both sexes. We also show that social activities, through their effect on cognition, influence positively households’ economic welfare.
    Keywords: Social Activities, Ageing, SHARE, Panel Data
    JEL: I10 J14 C23
    Date: 2012–09–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:320&r=cwa
  4. By: Alicia H. Munnell; Rebecca Cannon Fraenkel; Josh Hurwitz
    Abstract: Pension discussions in the last few years have focused primarily on the financial health of state/local plans or on the shift from defined benefit to 401(k) plans in the private sector. Often forgotten is that while coverage at the state/local level is virtually universal, only 42 percent of private sector workers age 25-64 have any pension coverage in their current job. As a result, more than one third of households end up with no coverage at all during their entire worklives and others, who move in and out of coverage, end up with inadequate 401(k) balances. This brief proceeds as follows. The first section describes the pension coverage problem in the private sector. The second section explores the implications of the coverage gap. The third section presents policy options to address the gap. The key finding is that, absent a government initiative to create a new tier of retirement saving, pension coverage is unlikely to increase and many – both with and without 401(k) plans – will end up with inadequate retirement income.
    Date: 2012–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:issbrf:ib2012-16&r=cwa
  5. By: Hullegie, P.G.J. (Tilburg University)
    Abstract: Abstract: This thesis deals with a range of topics in health and labor economics. The first part examines the validity of a method that aims at improving the interpersonal comparability of self-reports in surveys. The second part is concerned with the question how the demand for medical care is related to health insurance, and to health. The third part studies whether job search requirements help older workers to find a job more quickly.
    Date: 2012
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-5637283&r=cwa
  6. By: Jan Fidrmuc
    Abstract: Formal and informal institutions are often thought of as being highly persistent, with historical events such as conflicts, authoritarian regimes or colonization having a long-lasting effect on their quality. To analyze the persistence of social capital, I look at regions which have experienced large-scale population displacements some 50-60 years ago. As social capital is embedded in relationships, regions that were repopulated by migrants are likely to start off with little inherited social capital. My analysis suggests that, with a lag of approximately two generations, the inhabitants of these regions display similar stocks of social capital as their counterparts in regions unaffected by population transfers. Hence, contrary to the Putnamesque view, much of the present-day social capital appears to have been formed in recent past rather than attributable to long-term historical legacies.
    Date: 2012–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:edb:cedidp:12-04&r=cwa
  7. By: Steven Nafziger; Peter H. Lindert
    Abstract: Just how unequal were the incomes of different classes of Russians on the eve of Revolution, relative to other countries, to Russia’s earlier history, and to Russia’s income distribution today? Careful weighing of an eclectic data set provides provisional answers. We provide detailed income estimates for economic and social classes in each of the 50 provinces of European Russia. In 1904, on the eve of military defeat and the 1905 Revolution, Russian income inequality was middling by the standards of that era, and less severe than inequality has become today in such countries as China, the United States, and Russia itself. We also note how the interplay of some distinctive fiscal and relative-price features of Imperial Russia might have shaped the now-revealed level of inequality.
    JEL: N30 N33 O15
    Date: 2012–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18383&r=cwa
  8. By: Rashid Amjad (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.); G. M. Arif (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.); M. Irfan (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)
    Date: 2012
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2012:86&r=cwa
  9. By: David Kemme
    Abstract: This paper first describes the major concerns associated with SWFs, mainly revolving around state ownership and lack of transparency. It then focuses on the National Fund for the Future of Kazakhstan (the “oil fund”, or NOF) and Samruk Kazyna (SK), the holding company for state owned enterprises. The NOF is funded predominately by corporate income taxes and royalties on natural resource production and is an instrument to provide financial stability and intergenerational equity. SK includes most large public monopolies and state owned enterprises not privatized in the 1990s with all of the accompanying issues related to state ownership and control of productive activities.
    Keywords: Sovereign Wealth Funds, Kazakhstan, Oil Fund
    JEL: F33 G20 O53 P33
    Date: 2012–08–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wdi:papers:2012-1036&r=cwa
  10. By: Jobn Knight
    Abstract: Social instability is a concept that economists rarely analyse, and yet it can lurk behind much economic policy-making. China’s leadership has often publicly expressed its concerns to avoid ‘social instability’. It is viewed as a threat both to the political order and to the continued rapid growth of the economy. This threat to growth in turn endangers the maintenance of social stability. This paper examines the likely economic determinants of social instability, using both surveys and other evidence. After explaining the determinants of China’s rapid growth, the paper goes on to examine the likely mechanisms by which social instability can affect the growth rate. There is a case for more research on the role of social instability in the economic development process.
    Keywords: China, Civl unrest, Corruption, Developmental state, Economic growth, Governance, Happiness, Inequality, Social instability
    JEL: O15 O20 O43 P26
    Date: 2012
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:619&r=cwa
  11. By: Jane Golley (Australian Centre On China in the World Australian National University); Rod Tyers (Business School, University of Western Australia)
    Abstract: The world’s two population giants have undergone significant, and significantly different, demographic transitions since the 1950s. The demographic dividends associated with these transitions during the first three decades of this century are examined using a global economic model that incorporates full demographic behavior and measures of dependency that reflect the actual number of workers to non-workers, rather than the number of working aged to non-working aged. While much of China’s demographic dividend now lies in the past, alternative assumptions about future trends in fertility and labor force participation rates are used to demonstrate that China will not necessarily enter a period of “demographic taxation” for at least another decade, if not longer. In contrast with China, much of India’s potential demographic dividend lies in waiting for the decades ahead, with the extent and duration depending critically on a range of policy choices.
    Date: 2012
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwa:wpaper:12-03&r=cwa
  12. By: Prada, Fernando (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: Multilateral development banks (MDBs) are an innovative institutional model to channel financing and knowledge to developing countries. In Latin America, the balance of forces between competition and collaboration among MDBs and other sources of development finance have formed a system that is decentralized and client-oriented. The author analyzes three types of relationships between MDBs to show areas of strength in their operations and future potential, using a great amount of quantitative data from the annual reports and financial databases of MDBs that the FORO Nacional Internacional research program has been tracking periodically.
    Keywords: development finance; multilateral development banks; world bank; inter-american development bank; subregional development banks; latin america
    JEL: F34 O10 O19
    Date: 2012–09–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0380&r=cwa
  13. By: Billette de Villemeur, Etienne; Pineau, Pierre-Olivier
    Abstract: Electricity markets vary greatly across jurisdictions, in terms of regulatory institutions, cost levels and environmental impacts. Integrating such different markets can lead to significant changes. This paper considers two jurisdictions - one with a regulated monopoly selling at average cost and one with a competitive market - and compares three different institutional regimes: autarky, a mixed-market structure with trade and a fully integrated market, where electricity is sold at marginal cost. We show that, in the second regime, the regulated monopoly always exports toward the jurisdiction pricing at marginal cost, up to inducing productive inefficiencies. By contrast, a shift from the second to the third regime, i.e. "integrated deregulation" yields a decrease in overall consumption. We identify the exact conditions under which the shift from one regime to the other results in environmental gains.
    Keywords: Market Integration; Regulation; Electricity Trade; Environmental Impacts
    JEL: F15 Q52 Q56 F14 L94 L50
    Date: 2012
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:41251&r=cwa
  14. By: Roger Fouquet
    Abstract: This paper briefly highlights some of the most influential ideas in the literature on the economics of energy and (energy-related) climate change. This paper will use bibliometric evidence to examine the trends in related research over the last forty years, and analyse the explosion in energy and climate change research in the last ten years. It will also, more controversially, consider the validity of the hypothesised rise in original ideas in the literature (during the 1990s) and then decline (or relative decline) since the explosion in research output (since 2005). This paper proposes that if economists are going to make an equally important and constructive contribution as they did up to 2012, then their ideas will need to move forward and evolve, offering exciting and stimulating new solutions for the post-Kyoto era.
    Keywords: Energy, Climate Change.
    Date: 2012–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcc:wpaper:2012-08&r=cwa
  15. By: Peter R Hartley (Business School, University of Western Australia and Rice University); Kenneth B. Medlock III (Rice University)
    Abstract: Using data on 61 oil companies from 2001-09, we examine the evolution of revenue efficiency of National Oil Companies (NOCs) and shareholder-owned oil companies (SOCs). We find that NOCs generally are less efficient than SOCs, but their efficiency increased faster over the last decade. We also find evidence that partial privatizations increase operational efficiency, and (weaker) evidence that mergers and acquisitions during the decade tended to increase the efficiency of the merging firms. Finally, we find evidence that much of the inefficiency of NOCs is consistent with the hypothesis that government ownership leads to different firm objectives.
    Date: 2012
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwa:wpaper:12-12&r=cwa
  16. By: Altan Aldan; Ihsan Bozok; Mahmut Gunay
    Abstract: We study the short-run dynamics of Turkish imports between 2003 and 2011 by applying Kalman filter to obtain time-varying parameters for income and exchange rate. In addition to total imports excluding energy, we use data based on broad economic activities in order to allow sectoral heterogeneity in income and exchange rate elasticities. Our results indicate that income is more important (compared to the exchange rate) in determining import growth in most of the sectors, though there is heterogeneity among sectoral responses. Moreover, we find that elasticities (especially for income) change over time, and the change is more prominent after the 2008 financial crisis. Finally, we find evidence of aggregation bias in income elasticity estimates, which increase in recent years.
    Keywords: Import demand, Kalman filter, aggregation bias
    JEL: C13 C51 F17
    Date: 2012
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1225&r=cwa
  17. By: Jean Bonnet (University of Caen Basse-Normandie - CREM UMR CNRS 6211, France); Marcus Dejardin (Université Catholique de Louvain, IMMAQ CIRTES - FUNDP - University of Namur, CERPE); Antonia Madrid-Guijarro (Technical University of Cartagena, Financial Economics and Accounting Department, Spain)
    Abstract: Not only growth but better growth is required to address the tremendous challenges that European economies are facing. More entrepreneurs and more entrepreneurial firms -new and innovative firms- can contribute. A variety of factors may be considered to promote entrepreneurship among young people, and innovative activities among firms. Education is certainly one of the most relevant. The need to create a more favourable social climate for new businesses requires not only changing the state of mind but also improving globally the skills of entrepreneurs. It is also important to identify the most favourable context for the creation and development of sustainable, innovative companies, especially during economic crisis. This paper has been prepared to introduce and present original contributions from scholars in economics, management and sociology, that are collected in a book entitled The Shift to the Entrepreneurial Society: A Built Economy in Education, Sustainability and Regulation, to be published by Edward Elgar Publishing in July 2012.
    Keywords: entrepreneurship, socioeconomic challenges, education, sustainability, regulation
    JEL: L26 M13 I25 O10
    Date: 2012–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tut:cremwp:201231&r=cwa
  18. By: Ernst Juerg Weber (Business School, University of Western Australia)
    Abstract: The 2012-13 Budget, which provides for an increase in taxes of $ 39 billion and a reduction in expenditures of $ 7 billion, is strongly contractionary, reducing aggregate demand by about 2 per cent. The government deserves praise for starting the process of fiscal consolidation in a possible election year. Still, given the low Australian government debt, there is no pressing need to restore an even budget within one year and a worsening of the economic crisis in Europe will make the budget unattainable.
    Date: 2012
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwa:wpaper:12-11&r=cwa

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