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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Kym Anderson (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)); Anna Strutt |
| Abstract: | Rapid trade-led economic growth in emerging Asia has been shifting the global economic and industrial centres of gravity away from the north Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade but also altering the commodity composition of trade by Asia and other regions. What began with Japan in the 1950s and the Republic of Korea and Taipei,China from the late 1960s has spread to the much more populous ASEAN region, the People’s Republic of China, and India. This paper examines how that growth and associated structural changes are altering agricultural markets in particular and thereby food security. It does so retrospectively and by projecting a model of the world economy that compares alternative growth strategies, trade policy scenarios and savings behaviors to 2030. Projected impacts on sectoral shares of gross domestic product (GDP), “openness†to trade and the composition and direction of trade are drawn out, followed by effects of the boom in non-farm sectors on agricultural self-sufficiency and real food consumption per capita in Asia and elsewhere. The paper concludes by drawing implications for policies that can address more efficiently Asia’s concerns about food security and rural-urban income disparity than the trade policy measures used by earlier-industrializing Northeast Asia. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, food security, Asia, alternative growth strategies, trade policy scenarios, agricultural self-sufficiency, food consumption |
| JEL: | D58 F13 F15 F17 Q17 |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:macroe:23309&r=cwa |
| By: | Shepotylo, Oleksandr; Tarr, David G. |
| Abstract: | After 18 years of negotiations, Russia has joined the World Trade Organization. This paper assesses how the tariff structure of the Russian Federation will change as a result of the phased implementation of its World Trade Organization commitments between 2012 and 2020 and how it has changed as a result of its agreement to participate in a Customs Union with Kazakhstan and Belarus. The analysis uses trade data at the ten digit level, which allows the first accurate assessment of the impact of these policy changes. It finds that World Trade Organization commitments will progressively and significantly lower the applied tariffs of the Russian Federation. After all commitments are implemented, tariffs will fall from 11.5 percent to 7.9 percent on an un-weighted average basis, or from 13.0 percent to 5.8 percent on a weighted average basis. The average"bound"tariff rate of Russia under its World Trade Organization commitments will be 8.6 percent, that is, 0.7 percentage points higher than the applied tariffs. Russia's commitments represent significant tariff liberalization, but compared with other countries that have acceded to the World Trade Organization, the commitments of the Russian Federation are not unusual, especially when compared with the Transition countries. |
| Keywords: | International Trade and Trade Rules,Trade Policy,Free Trade,Export Competitiveness,Debt Markets |
| Date: | 2012–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6161&r=cwa |
| By: | Pek Koon Heng (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)) |
| Abstract: | The paper argues that United States (US) participation in the East Asia Summit (EAS)—regional integration architecture led by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)—was motivated by four changes in the regional economic landscape : (i) the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and emergence of the ASEAN+3 grouping; (ii) the rise of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the leading regional growth engine and an active player in regional integration arrangements; (iii) the failure of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) arrangement to foster trade liberalization in the region; and (iv) the inability of the World Trade Organization (WTO) Doha Development Round to lower global trade barriers significantly. In joining the EAS, the Obama Administration espoused an approach known as divided functionality, one that would give priority to APEC, and its trade-focused Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement economic engagement with East Asia, and the EAS for addressing political and security issues. Currently, two architectures for regional economic integration are contesting. The first embodies the US vision of a deeply institutionalized Asia-Pacific economic community, as articulated by the ongoing TPP trade negotiations. The second is represented by the Asia-only ASEAN+3 framework, a shallowly institutionalized grouping with weak enforcement compliance mechanisms. However, despite differences in the two approaches, prospects for a healthy complementarity between them—through overlapping memberships, the application of open regionalism, and the benefits of competitive liberalization among specific trade agreements—seem promising. |
| Keywords: | ASEAN integration, the East Asia Submit, The United States, regional integration architecture, Asia-Pacific economic community |
| JEL: | F13 F15 F18 F55 F59 |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:govern:23310&r=cwa |
| By: | Menon, Jayant (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is highly diverse. It is also divided. The most striking example is the development divide that separates ASEAN’s newer members of Cambodia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Myanmar, and Viet Nam—the CLMV countries—from the organization’s original members, or ASEAN-6. More rapid growth in Cambodia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, and Viet Nam since the 1990s—driven by trade, investment, and other market reforms—has reduced income differences between this grouping and ASEAN-6. Yet, while the development divide has narrowed, huge gaps remain. The further narrowing of these gaps will require an increase in the pace and breadth of policy reforms, and start addressing labor mobility. Although rapid growth has resulted in convergence among ASEAN members, it has also increased polarization within individual countries. This can threaten social cohesion and the sustainability of future growth. There is a pressing need to invest more in education and health, and to institute land reform. |
| Keywords: | ASEAN; development divide; convergence; inequality; transition economies; labor mobility |
| JEL: | F15 O24 |
| Date: | 2012–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbrei:0100&r=cwa |
| By: | Heinrich-Wilhelm Wyes (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)); Michael Lewandowski |
| Abstract: | Regional governance systems and national frameworks to address climate change and accelerate green growth in Asia are reviewed and tools to address climate change are outlined. Options for regional level political institutions and financial architecture needed to fulfill voluntary pledges and programs are suggested and potentials, options, and challenges regarding monitoring, reporting, and verification systems are analyzed. In conclusion, policy measures for adaption and mitigation to climate change are provided. |
| Keywords: | regional cooperation, regional governance systems, regional institutions, financial architecture, Climate change |
| JEL: | H87 |
| Date: | 2012–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:govern:23318&r=cwa |
| By: | Vladimir Mau (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | This paper deals with the socio-economic environment in Russia in 2011. The author tries to analyze the results and lessons of socio-political outcome of 2011. The focus is on the quest for a new growth model for Russia. |
| Keywords: | new growth model, global crisis |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:9&r=cwa |
| By: | Hyun-Hoon LEE (Department of International Trade and Business, Kangwon National University); Minsoo LEE (Economics and Research Department, Asian Development Bank (ADB)); Donghyun PARK (Economics and Research Department, Asian Development Bank (ADB)) |
| Abstract: | While developing Asia has traditionally prioritized growth over equality, recent years have witnessed a growing popular demand for more inclusive growth in the region. In this connection, Korea, which has managed to combine rapid economic growth and moderate inequality levels, offers potentially valuable lessons for developing Asia. The central objective of our paper is to analyze the relationship between growth policy and inequality in Korea in order to identify relevant policy implications for developing Asia. According to our analysis, the one policy that stands out as a driver of both rapid economic growth and more equal income distribution is large and systematic investments in public education. The broader positive lesson from the Korean experience is that growth and inequality do not necessarily go hand in hand, and government policy can make a difference. |
| Keywords: | Growth; growth policy; inequality; Asia; Korea |
| JEL: | D30 O40 O43 |
| Date: | 2012–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2012-12&r=cwa |
| By: | Ganeshan Wignaraja (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)) |
| Abstract: | The Association of Southeast Asian Nations JEL Classification : F10, F23, O14 (ASEAN) small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are under scrutiny for their engagement in production networks following recent emphasis on increasing intra-regional trade, rebalancing, and inclusive growth in Asia. Using a data set covering 5,900 firms in five ASEAN economies at different stages of development, this paper analyses the participation of SMEs in production networks, determinants, and policy implications. It finds that although large firms dominate production network engagement in ASEAN economies, there are signs that SMEs have modestly increased their participation since the late-1990s. This is linked to firm-specific factors (e.g., firm size, foreign ownership, skills, technological capabilities, and access to credit) as well as a supportive business environment. Tackling residual supply-side and policy constraints can further the participation of ASEAN SMEs in production networks. |
| Keywords: | Small and medium enterprises, SMEs, Production Networks, ASEAN, intra-regional trade, Business Environment |
| JEL: | F10 F23 O14 |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:microe:23316&r=cwa |
| By: | Abhijit Sen Gupta (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the extent of exchange rate coordination among Asian economies using a hypothetical Asian Currency Unit. Rising interdependence among Asian economies makes it vital for these economies to have a certain degree of exchange rate stability. However, the empirical evidence using an Asian Currency Unit suggests a widening deviation in exchange rate movements of the Asian currencies. The deviation has been driven by the adoption of different exchange rate regimes by the participating countries indicating diverse policy objectives. There are a number of institutions in the region that can assist exchange rate coordination and greater economic and financial integration. These institutions, including a multilateralized swap arrangement, a regional surveillance mechanism, and a bond fund; have to be significantly strengthened for them to play a role in fostering greater economic cooperation. The denomination of financial assets in the Asian Currency Unit in transactions involving these institutions would also enhance exchange rate cooperation. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate coordination, Asia, Asian Currency Unit, exchange rate stability, financial cooperation |
| JEL: | F36 F55 F15 |
| Date: | 2012–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:macroe:23321&r=cwa |
| By: | Maystadt, Jean-François; Trinh Tan, Jean-François; Breisinger, Clemens |
| Abstract: | Expectations are high that transition in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen will bring about more freedom, justice, and economic opportunities. However, experiences from other world regions show that countries in transition are at high risk of entering conflicts, which often come at large economic, social and political costs. In order to identify options on how conflict may be prevented in Arab transition countries, this paper assesses the key global drivers of conflicts based on a dataset from 1960 to 2010 and improved cross-country regression techniques. Results show that unlike in other studies where per capita incomes, inequality, and poor governance, among other factors, emerge as the major determinants of conflict, food security at macro- and micro-levels emerges as the main cause of conflicts in the Arab world. This "Arab exceptionalism in conflict" suggests that improving food security is not only important for improving the lives of rural and urban people; it is also likely to be the key for a peaceful transition. |
| Keywords: | food security, Transitional economies, Conflict, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1196&r=cwa |
| By: | Cristina Martinez-Fernandez; Kyungsoo Choi |
| Abstract: | Skills and educational development for inclusive and sustainable growth are becoming significant drivers in OECD countries. Asian countries are not lagging behind on the challenge; on the contrary, they are taking diverse pathways in skills training and education to achieve the end. This report focuses on current efforts in 15 countries in the Asian region: Australia, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, China, India, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mongolia, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam. Together, these countries represent one of the most dynamic regions in the world, with steady growth, even during the recent financial crisis. |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:cfeaaa:2012/12-en&r=cwa |
| By: | Prema-chandra Athukorala; Shahbaz Nasir |
| Abstract: | This paper examines patterns and determinants of trade among developing countries (South-South trade), with emphasis on the role of production sharing in global economic integration of the Southern economies. It begins with an analytical narrative of the emerging trends and patterns of South-South trade using a classification system that helps delineating trade based on global production sharing (network trade) from total recorded trade. Then it undertakes a comparative econometric analysis of the determinants of South-South and South-North trade using the standard gravity model. There is evidence that the share of South-South trade in world trade has increased significantly over the past two decades. However, this increase has predominantly come from the dynamic East Asian countries, reflecting their growing engagement in global production sharing. The growth dynamism of East-Asia centered production networks depends heavily on demand for final (assembled) goods in the Northern markets; South-South trade is largely complementary to, rather than competing with, South-North trade. While regional trading agreements (RTAs) could play a role at the margin, natural economic forces associated with growth and structural change in the economy and the overall macroeconomic climate as reflected in the real exchange rate, and the quality of trade related logistics are far more important in the expansion of South-South network trade. |
| Keywords: | global production sharing, production fragmentation, South-South trade, gravity model, regional trade agreements, RTA |
| JEL: | F02 F13 F15 O2 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2012-12&r=cwa |
| By: | Sofiane Aboura (CEREG - Centre de Recherche sur la gestion et la Finance - DRM UMR 7088 - Université Paris IX - Paris Dauphine); Julien Chevallier (EconomiX - CNRS : UMR7166 - Université Paris X - Paris Ouest Nanterre La Défense) |
| Abstract: | This article brings new insights on the role played by (implied) volatility on the WTI crude oil spot price. An increase in the volatility subsequent to an increase in the oil price (i.e. inverse leverage effect) remains the dominant effect as it might reflect the fear of oil consumers to face rising oil prices. However, this effect is amplified by an increase in the oil price subsequent to an increase in the volatility (i.e. inverse feedback effect) with a two-day delayed effect. This lead-lag relation between the oil price and its volatility is determinant for any type of trading strategy based on futures and options on the OVX implied volatility index, and thus is of interest to traders, risk- and fund-managers. |
| Keywords: | WTI, Crude Oil Price, Implied Volatility, Leverage Effect, Feedback Effect |
| Date: | 2012–07–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00720156&r=cwa |
| By: | Joshua AIZENMAN (Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Cruz); Minsoo LEE (Economics and Research Department, Asian Development Bank (ADB)); Donghyun PARK (Economics and Research Department, Asian Development Bank (ADB)) |
| Abstract: | Structural change has a far-reaching impact on inequality. It exposes the population to challenges and opportunities. Foreign trade and technological progress have been widely put forth as a structural driver of inequality. Broader structural change, such as demographic transition, can also impinge upon inequality. Structural change in developing Asia has been unprecedented in its scale and speed. The heterogeneity of the population implies that the adjustment capacity to these changes varies. The fundamental solution to mitigating the adjustment costs arising from structural change lies in empowering individuals to become more productive, adaptable, and versatile through access to education and employment. Structural change exerts a significant effect on inequality in both advanced and developing countries. The experiences of the advanced economies entail valuable lessons for developing Asia. Extensive structural change is both a cause and consequence of the exceptionally rapid economic growth, which enabled developing Asia to raise living standards and reduce poverty at a historically unprecedented rate. The region has already begun the difficult and complex task of addressing inequality arising from structural change. There is a growing recognition that more sustainable growth supported by broad-based political and social support requires a growth strategy, which provides equality of opportunity, especially in education and employment. The newly developing more inclusive growth philosophy envisions expanded social protection systems and social safety nets to protect the poor and the vulnerable. |
| Keywords: | Inequality; Structural change; Developing Asia |
| JEL: | O15 O53 P46 |
| Date: | 2012–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2012-13&r=cwa |
| By: | Hasan, Dr. Syed Akif; Subhani, Dr. Muhammad Imtiaz; Osman, Ms. Amber |
| Abstract: | Pakistan is a moderate Islamic country, and Karachi its Financial Hub. The Islamic banking industry has seen an enormous growth in the past ten years in the space of Pakistan. This study is intended to observe the criteria of Islamic bank selection for the diversified consumers of Karachi, Pakistani. Ten factors which include Convenience, Quality of services by banks, Religious motives of consumers , Availability of ATM, Privacy & Confidentiality, Bank reputation & Image, Variety in financing options, High profit & Low service charges, Recommendations from friends & family and Friendly & Responsive attitude of banking staff have been taken to investigate the consumer’s criteria for selecting Islamic banking. The findings suggest that High profit & Low service charges is the most important factor followed by Religious motives and Quality of Service for selecting Islamic banking by consumers. |
| Keywords: | Islamic banking; religious motives; banking industry |
| JEL: | G2 D11 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:40384&r=cwa |
| By: | Stephen Howes (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)); Paul Wyrwoll |
| Abstract: | Developing Asia is the driver of today’s emissions intensive global economy. As the principle source of future emissions, the region is critical to the task of global climate change mitigation. Reflecting this global reality and a range of related domestic issues, the governments of the People’s Republic of China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, and Viet Nam have embarked upon an ambitious policy agenda. This report reviews the present and future policy settings for climate change mitigation and green growth in Asia’s major emerging economies. Although recent targets and commitments will involve a fundamental change in emissions trajectories, the urgency and extent of necessary global action requires ambition to be raised even further in developing Asia. An additional transformation will be required for the trajectory of emissions and energy demand, as well as the future composition of the power generation mix. Achieving these transformations will not be easy. There are a substantial number of policy instruments available, yet significant obstacles stand in the way of their effective deployment. Governments face a number of policy challenges, including : energy sector reform, economic reform, strengthening institutional capacity, and securing international support. The principal conclusion of this analysis is that the task facing Asia’s policymakers is not simply one of setting targets and pursuing narrowly focused policies to reach them. Rather, a broad–scale approach involving all sections of the economy and government will be required to achieve the shift to a sustainable, low-emissions development trajectory. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Green growth, mitigation, developing Asia, emerging economies, carbon emissions |
| JEL: | O44 Q54 Q58 Q40 Q42 Q53 Q56 O10 |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:govern:23308&r=cwa |
| By: | Hasan, Dr. Syed Akif; Subhani, Dr. Muhammad Imtiaz; Osman, Ms. Amber |
| Abstract: | Media is the strongest communication channel and one of key players in making the world as a global village. This industry is more apparent to the world’s audience. Pakistan’s media has moved quite fast and is trying to beat the international hues of media. Our media is trying to highlight the problems but solutions are quite suppressed and left out in the open. Hence, it leads to more agitation and detained communication leading to despair of the nation. The role of the media is to voice the real information of the world. It is trying to bring a positive change by various forms for better socio-economic conditions in the long run but why one views so much grim in today’s media channels, print and radio. In particular, talk shows on Pakistan’s different media channels have hyped so much for different topic agendas, which is leading to nowhere. This article will jot out the pros and cons of the media actual purpose behind talk shows. Definitely to answer that is it for increasing rating of the channel, betterment for the society and/or dealing personal grudges against the topic of the show/guests on the show. |
| Keywords: | Media; Talk shows; Globalization; Pakistan; Socio-Economic conditions |
| JEL: | L82 A10 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:40380&r=cwa |
| By: | Petukhova, Svetlana; Strepetova, Margarita |
| Abstract: | -- |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itse12:60362&r=cwa |