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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Codrina Rada and Rüdiger von Arnim |
| Keywords: | structural change; informal sector; India; global demand JEL Classification: O11, O17, O53, F01 This paper employs (1) a three-sector structuralist model of development with informal and formal activities and (2) a global one-sector model with demand determined outputs and bargained distribution to investigate whether India’s growth performance can be sustained, where the country might face constraints to growth, and how India’s growth matters in the global economy. |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uta:papers:2012_05&r=cwa |
| By: | Kalamkar, Shrikant S.; Shroff, Sangeeta |
| Abstract: | Agriculture is the predominant sector of economies of all South Asian countries and poverty and hunger are the most serious problems faced by this region. Agriculture in this region is caught in a low equilibrium trap with low productivity of staples, supply shortfalls, high prices, low returns to farmers and area diversification which threaten food security. Despite rapid growth of some of the economies, dependence on agriculture as an economic activity has seen a negligible decline. Future growth of this sector holds the key to livelihood security, eradication of poverty, sustainable progress of the economy of each of the nations. |
| Keywords: | Food Security, South Asian Countries, Poverty, Food Prices, Sustainability, Food Security and Poverty, |
| Date: | 2012–06–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae12:125501&r=cwa |
| By: | Raghav Gaiha; Nidhi Kaicker; Katsushi Imai; Ganesh Thapa |
| Abstract: | Our analysis illustrates one pathway between agriculture and nutrition through production of nutrients by crop and size as well as through livestock. As this pathway is subsumed in agriculture and nutrition studies focusing on anthropometric outcomes, and hardly any light is thrown on the contribution of smallholders, it is emphasised that they play an important role as producers of nutrients. Specifically, despite various disadvantages (e.g. inadequate access to extension, technology, credit and markets), they contribute largest shares of calories, protein and fats. However, profits earned (using an approximate measure) are considerably lower among them than among medium and large landholders. At least two reasons are identified in our analysis: one is limited access to markets and another is lower crop prices. A much greater emphasis on enabling higher investment, access to technology and markets through better rural infrastructure would help increase profitability of crop production. Equally important are market imperfections that manifest in lower crop prices for smallholders. How economies of scale could be exploited through farmers’ groups needs careful scrutiny. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, food crops, livestock, smallholders, calorie, protein and fat |
| JEL: | I15 Q18 N35 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:asarcc:2012-06&r=cwa |
| By: | Bashir, Muhammad Khalid; Schilizzi, Steven; Pandit, Ram |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of livestock for household food security of small farmers in the Punjab province of Pakistan. Household level data were collected from 576 small farmers of 12 districts of the province using stratified sampling technique. According to the results, about 19% of the sample households were measured to be food insecure. It was found that both large (cows and buffalos) and small (goats and sheep) livestock assets significantly improve food security. An increase of one animal in both assets increases the chances of a household to become food secure by 10.1 and 148.6%, respectively. Other important factors found to improve food security were monthly income, total earners in a household and education level of graduation and above. Furthermore, increasing family size deteriorates household food security. Rural household food security can be improved by focussing on livestock sector especially the small animals. |
| Keywords: | Livestock, food security determinants, small farmers, Punjab, Pakistan, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Security and Poverty, I30, Q18 and R20., |
| Date: | 2012–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uwauwp:126034&r=cwa |
| By: | Spielman, David J.; Kolady, Deepthi; Cavalieri, Anthony |
| Abstract: | The rapid expansion of hybrid rice cultivation in China has contributed significantly to improving food security in the country since the 1980s. However, few other Asian countries have seen similar expansions in hybrid rice cultivation or the associated yield and output gains. This paper examines the technical challenges, market opportunities, and policy constraints related to hybrid rice in Asia, with specific emphasis on India and Bangladesh. The paper sets the discussion within a novel analytical approach to agricultural science, technology, and innovation that focuses on improving the efficiency with which new technologies are transformed into economically relevant products and services. |
| Keywords: | Hybrid rice, agricultural research and development, technological change, innovation, South Asia, Agricultural and Food Policy, Q16, Q18, O31, O33, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae12:125694&r=cwa |
| By: | Bashir, Muhammad Khalid; Schilizzi, Steven; Pandit, Ram |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the factors affecting rural household food security in three different regions of the Punjab Province of Pakistan. For this it used Binary Logistic regression modelling based on primary data source from 3 districts each of South and North and 6 districts of Central Punjab. According to the results, Central Punjab was found to be the most food insecure region where about 31% of the sample households were measured to be food insecure. In South and North Punjab, 13.5% and 15% of the sample households were measured as food insecure, respectively. It was found that monthly income and livestock assets improve and family size deteriorates household food security across all the three regions. In Central Punjab, education level of graduation and above had a positive impact on food security while in North Punjab both middle and intermediate levels had positive impacts. Additionally, household heads’ increasing age deteriorated food security in Central Punjab. On the other hand, total number of earners in the household improved food security in the North Punjab. Food security can be improved by targeting the neediest households. |
| Keywords: | Logistic regression, rural food security, regional food security, Punjab, Pakistan, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Security and Poverty, I30, Q18 and R20., |
| Date: | 2012–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uwauwp:126033&r=cwa |
| By: | Bashir, Muhammad Khalid; Schilizzi, Steven; Pandit, Ram |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the situation of food security for the landless rural households of the Punjab province in Pakistan. Primary data from 576 landless households were collected from 12 districts of the province. About 27% of the sample households were measured to be food insecure. Household’s monthly income and household head’s education levels of middle and intermediate were positively impacting household food security. On the other hand, household heads’ age and family size were negatively associated with household food security. Rural household food security can be improved by focussing on education, creation of income generating opportunities and family planning programs. |
| Keywords: | landless households, determinants, food security, rural areas, Punjab, Pakistan, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Security and Poverty, I30, Q18 and R20., |
| Date: | 2012–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uwauwp:126035&r=cwa |
| By: | Nazli, Hina; Orden, David; Sarker, Rakhal; Meilke, Karl D. |
| Abstract: | Among the four largest cotton-producing countries, only Pakistan had not commercially adopted Bt cotton by 2010. However, the cultivation of first-generation (Cry1Ac) Bt cotton, unapproved and unregulated, increased rapidly after 2005. Using the propensity score matching method, this paper examines the economic impact of the available Bt varieties on farmers’ wellbeing. The analysis is based on data collected through structured questionnaires in January-February 2009 from 206 growers in 16 villages in two cotton-growing districts, Bahawalpur and Mirpur Khas. The results indicate a positive impact of Bt cotton on the wellbeing of farmers in Pakistan. However, the extent of impact varies by agro-climatic conditions and size of farm. Bt cotton appeared most effective in the hot and humid areas where pest pressure from bollworms is high. The per-acre yield gains for medium and large farmers are higher than for small farmers. This suggests that additional public-sector interventions may be complementary to introduction of Bt cotton to make this technology widely beneficial in Pakistan. |
| Keywords: | Bt cotton, Pakistan, propensity score matching, selection bias, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, O3, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae12:126172&r=cwa |
| By: | Minten, Bart; Murshid, K.A.S.; Reardon, Thomas |
| Abstract: | In Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh—one of the poorest countries in Asia, where rice accounts for almost 70 percent of consumers’ caloric intake—the share of the less expensive coarse rice is shown to be rapidly decreasing in rice markets and the quality premium for the fine rice has been consistently on the rise in the last decades. It thus seems that the role of rice as only a cheap staple food is being redefined. The increasing demand for the more expensive varieties is seemingly associated with a more important off-farm food sector—in particular, milling, retailing, and branding—as well as a transformed milling industry. We further find that the labor rewards for growing different rice varieties are not significantly different and that farmers do not benefit directly from consumers’ increased willingness to pay for rice. |
| Keywords: | Bangladesh, rice, markets, value chains, Asia, quality, milling, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae12:125280&r=cwa |
| By: | Iyer, Lakshmi; Santos, Indhira |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the key challenges to job creation in conflict-affected environments in South Asia. It uses household survey data since the early 2000s for Afghanistan, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka to document the characteristics of labor markets in conflict-affected areas, exploiting the spatial and time variation in armed conflict within countries. The analysis finds that, across countries, labor markets look very different in conflict-affected areas when compared with non-conflict or low-conflict areas. Employment rates are higher in large part because women participate more in the labor market, but work tends to be more vulnerable, with more self-employment and unpaid family work. The authors show that these differences often pre-date the conflict but are also exacerbated by it. They also examine the constraints on the private sector activity in such areas, using firm surveys when possible. Finally, the paper reviews the existing literature and the policy experiences of several countries to draw some policy implications for job creation efforts in the conflict-affected areas of South Asia. It particularly highlights the role of the private sector and community initiatives, in conjunction with public policies, to improve the environment for successful job creation. |
| Keywords: | Post Conflict Reconstruction,Population Policies,Labor Markets,Environmental Economics&Policies,Rural Poverty Reduction |
| Date: | 2012–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6104&r=cwa |
| By: | Marko Melolinna (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies oil market and other macroeconomic shocks in a structural vector au- toregression with sign restrictions. It introduces a new indicator for oil demand, and uniquely, performs a sign restriction set-up with a penalty function approach in an oil market vector au- toregression. The model also allows for macroeconomic shocks in the US. The results underline the importance of the source of an oil shock for its macroeconomic consequences. Oil supply shocks have been less relevant in driving real oil prices, and had less of an e¤ect on US ination than demand shocks. Overall, the e¤ects of oil shocks on US real activity have been relatively limited, as also highlighted by a counterfactual experiment of recent oil market developments. JEL Classification: C01, C32, E32 |
| Keywords: | oil demand shocks, oil supply shocks, business cycle, Bayesian econometrics |
| Date: | 2012–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20121432&r=cwa |
| By: | Alexander Knobel (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the influence of the service sector’s liberalization on service flows in transition economies and on productivity of the Russian industry that uses these services as intermediate consumption. Empirical analysis of the international statistics shows that service trade between CIS countries and OECD countries is strongly underestimated and could grow 2.5–3 times larger due to liberalization. Modeling of the international service trade shows that services imports into Russia are strongly limited by existing trade barriers. For Russia, according to the estimates, the most liberalized service sector is communication services, and the least liberalized sector is information technology. This paper demonstrates that services are actively used by Russian industry as intermediate consumption. On the basis of the inter-industry empirical analysis, one can conclude that service sector liberalization may have a positive impact on the productivity of various sectors of the Russian manufacturing industry. |
| Keywords: | : import volumes, services, trade liberalization, gravity model, panel data, labor productivity |
| JEL: | C23 F12 F14 O14 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:wpaper:0013&r=cwa |
| By: | Perez, Francisco Jose |
| Abstract: | The paper aims for enabling growth and promoting equity in the global financial crisis risk and vulnerability. It shows the internal factors, rules of engagement and the global financial crisis impacts. |
| Keywords: | SMES, Poverty, Global Financial Crisis, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Financial Economics, G15, R11, I:32., |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:naunwp:126114&r=cwa |
| By: | Giuseppe Francesco Gori (Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Italy); Luca Lambertini (Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Italy; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis (RCEA), Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of free trade on welfare in a two-country world modelled as an international Hotelling duopoly with quadratic transport costs and asymmetric countries, where a negative environmental externality is associated with the consumption of the good produced in the smaller country. Countries' relative sizes as well as the intensity of negative environmental externality affect potential welfare gains in trade liberalisation. In line with Lambertini (1997a) we show that, as long as no trade policy is undertaken by the government of the larger country, trade liberalisation is not feasible since the latter always loses from opening to trade. A subsidy policy in favour of the firm producing the clean good is, on the contrary, shown to give both countries the right incentives to liberalize trade. Allowing for redistributive transfers between countries further extends the parametric range for which trade liberalisation is feasible under the subsidy scheme. The alternative situation, in which the green firm is based in the larger country, is also briefly sketched to find that free trade does give rise to a global welfare increment with no need of accompanying trade policies. |
| Keywords: | International trade, geographical nation size, spatial competition, environmental externality |
| JEL: | F12 L13 H23 |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rim:rimwps:40_12&r=cwa |
| By: | Sascha Buetzer (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Maurizio Michael Habib (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Livio Stracca (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.) |
| Abstract: | Do oil shocks matter for exchange rates? This paper addresses this question based on data on real and nominal exchange rates as well as an exchange market pressure index for 44 advanced and emerging countries. We identify three structural shocks (oil supply, global demand, and oil specific demand) which raise the real oil price and analyse their effect on individual exchange rates. Contrary to the predictions of the theoretical literature, we find no evidence that exchange rates of oil exporters systematically appreciate against those of oil importers after shocks raising the real oil price. However, oil exporters experience significant appreciation pressures following an oil demand shock, which they tend to counter by accumulating foreign exchange reserves. Results for general commodity exporters are similar, showing minor differences compared with oil exporters. JEL Classification: F31, Q43. |
| Keywords: | Oil, structural VAR, exchange rate, exchange market pressure, global imbalances. |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20121442&r=cwa |
| By: | Sussangkarn, Chalongphob (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses mechanisms to prevent and resolve foreign exchange crises in East Asia. Policies and mechanisms at the country level as well as regional and global levels are discussed. Policies at the level of a particular country to prevent foreign exchange crises include the management of short-term foreign currency liabilities, the adequacy of reserves, and managing episodes of rapid short-term capital inflows. The author discusses the development of regional mechanisms for crisis prevention and resolution in conjunction with the global mechanisms, including the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) and the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (CMIM). The author then suggests how the CMIM can evolve into an integrated crisis prevention and resolution mechanism for East Asia. |
| Keywords: | foreign exchange crises; east asia; chiang mai initiative |
| JEL: | E02 E44 E58 E63 F33 F36 F55 |
| Date: | 2012–06–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0363&r=cwa |