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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Bigsten, Arne; Tengstam, Sven |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses and seeks to quantify the effects of improved donor coordination on aid effectiveness. Empirical estimates are first provided of the reductions in transaction costs that can be achieved by better donor coordination via concentration t |
| Keywords: | donor coordination, Paris Agenda, aid efficiency |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2012-32&r=cwa |
| By: | Guillaumont, Patrick; Wagner, Laurent |
| Abstract: | This paper confronts three conundrums. First, does the relationship between aid and growth fade over time when aid is successful? Second, why are aid inflows neglected in the literature on growth acceleration (or episodes). Third, why is country vulnerabi |
| Keywords: | official development assistance, growth acceleration, economic vulnerability, probit estimations |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2012-31&r=cwa |
| By: | Hudson, John |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews both the literature on aid volatility and also adds to that literature. In general, the focus of this literature has been on the volatility of overall aid, while we focus more on the volatility of the individual aid sectors, e.g., educa |
| Keywords: | aid volatility, sector aid, school completion rates, internet users |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2012-35&r=cwa |
| By: | D'Amuri Francesco; Giovanni Peri (Department of Economics, University of California Davis) |
| Abstract: | n this paper we analyze the impact of immigrants on the type and quantity of native jobs. We use data on fifteen Western European countries during the 1996-2010 period. We find that immigrants, by taking manual-routine type of occupations pushed natives towards more "complex" (abstract and communication) jobs. Such positive reallocation occurred while the total number of jobs held by natives was unaffected. This job upgrade was associated in the short run to a 0.6% increase in native wages for a doubling of the immigrants' share. These results are robust to the use of two alternative IV strategies based on past settlement of immigrants across European countries measured alternatively with Census or Labor Force data. The job upgrade slowed, but did not come to a halt, during the Great Recession. We also document the labor market flows behind it: the complexity of jobs offered to new native hires was higher relative to the complexity of lost jobs. Finally, we find evidence that such reallocation was significantly larger in countries with more flexible labor laws and that his tendency was particularly strong for less educated workers. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Jobs, Task specialization, Employment Protection Laws, Europe |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2012–06–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cda:wpaper:12-15&r=cwa |
| By: | Francesc Ortega; Giovanni Peri (Department of Economics, University of California Davis) |
| Abstract: | This paper makes two contributions to the literature on the determinants of international migration flows. First, we compile a new dataset on annual bilateral migration flows covering 15 OECD destination countries and 120 sending countries for the period 1980-2006. We also collect data on time-varying immigration policies that regulate the entry of immigrants for our destination countries over this period. Second, we extend the empirical model of migration choice across multiple destinations developed by Grogger and Hanson (2011) by allowing for unobserved individual heterogeneity between migrants and non-migrants. Our estimates show that international migration flows are highly responsive to income per capita at destination. This elasticity is twice as high for within-EU migration, reflecting the higher degree of labor mobility within the European Union. We also find that tightening of laws regulating immigrant entry reduce rapidly and significantly their flow. |
| Keywords: | International Migration, Labor Movements, Immigration Policies. |
| JEL: | F22 E25 J61 |
| Date: | 2012–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cda:wpaper:12-14&r=cwa |
| By: | Chia-Lin Chang (Department of Applied Economics, Department of Finance, National Chung Hsing University Taichung, Taiwan); Sung-Po Chen (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University Taichung, Taiwan); Michael McAleer (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands, Department of Quantitative Economics, Complutense University of Madrid, and Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University.) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of the three main channels of international trade on domestic innovation, namely outward direct investment (ODI), inward direct investment (IDI), and exports. The number of Triadic patents serves as a proxy for innovation. The data set contains 37 countries that are considered to be highly competitive in the world market, covering the period 1994 to 2005. The empirical results show that increased exports and outward direct investment are able to stimulate an increase in patent output. In contrast, IDI exhibits a negative relationship with domestic patents. The paper shows that the impact of IDI on domestic innovation is characterized by two forces, and the positive effects of cross-border mergers and acquisitions by foreigners is less than the negative effect of the remaining IDI. |
| Keywords: | International direct investment, Exports, Imports, Triadic Patent, Outward direct investment, Inward direct investment, R&D, negative binomial model. |
| JEL: | F14 F21 O30 O57 |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:doicae:1216&r=cwa |
| By: | Faber, Malte; Petersen, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Income inequality in China is severe; measured by the Gini-coefficient it amounted to 0.46 in 2011; wealth distribution is even worse with 0.61. These disparities led to a major shift in emphasis of politics in general and of the Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development by the National People´s Congress in particular. While previously the strategy of the Five-Year Plans had been “Making the nation [our emphasis] rich as top priority”, this was changed to “Making people [our emphasis] rich as top priority” in the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015), enacted in March 2011.The strategic change from “nation” to “people” indicates that the political decision-makers in China accepted the aim of a fair income distribution as a political issue of great importance. In this paper, richness is defined in the political-philosophical tradition as the right measure for one’s own needs and wants; only its environmental aspect is focused on in this study. The development of the Chinese environmental conditions is compared with the German ones and the former’s future outlook is judged optimistically because of the achievements in the last five years. However, the complexity and fragility of the environmental system will within a decade confront Chinese politicians with the same problems as it does right now in Germany. In order to provide a solution addressing this development, this paper analyzes what Karl Marx had to say on the long-run dynamics of the economic system. He saw poverty as a necessary yet unintended consequence of the capitalistic system and used this insight as a “precision tool for the study of social change” (Elster 1986), which can also be employed to examine the unintended repercussions of economic activity on nature. Marx, who studied environmental and resource issues in detail, thought that the inventiveness of the capitalistic system would finally overcome all of them in the course of time. In view of the fact that three billion people on earth still have a backlog demand to satisfy basic needs and in addition a further three billion are expected to be born until 2050, the future of the natural environmental conditions looks somber. If it is not possible to decouple economic growth from ensuing environmental strain, Marx may well be right after all in his prediction that the capitalistic system will collapse, although in quite a different manner than he thought. This being the case we take recourse to the thoughts of one of the influential intellectual German figures, to Romano Guardini. He foresaw changes in the self-perception of humankind and in the comprehension of nature. These imply a shift in the ethos of government as well, which would in turn pose three great challenges to politics: (i) understanding nature in a new light, (ii) listening to what drives human hearts, and (iii) governing according to law. |
| Keywords: | Wealth; Distribution; PR China; Environment; Sustainabilit y |
| JEL: | Q56 B14 B51 D31 D63 D90 O13 P26 |
| Date: | 2012–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:awi:wpaper:0526&r=cwa |
| By: | Teusch, Jonas |
| Abstract: | This Policy Brief argues that pursuing the renewables objective could contribute to the completion of the internal electricity market, help to overcome opposition to transmission projects and decrease the market power of incumbents. Conversely, an integrated internal electricity market means less price volatility in specific regional markets, which allows for more efficient deployment and grid integration of renewables. Three sets of recommendations are proposed. |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eps:cepswp:6733&r=cwa |
| By: | Christiaensen, Luc; Heltberg, Rasmus |
| Abstract: | Clean, safe energy for rural areas is an important component of green growth and sustainable development. Biogas could be an important contributor, if its record in reality lives up to its expected potential. This paper provides a preliminary assessment of biogas use by smallholder farmers in rural China, using data collected from 2,700 households in five provinces. The authors find that user satisfaction is high, and environmental and economic benefits appear tangible. There are strong indications of reduced use of wood and crop residues for fuel. Less time is spent on collecting fuel wood and cooking, which is especially beneficial to women. Adopters also save on fertilizers, because of the use of biogas residues. Moreover, problems with suspension of biogas use, whether due to technical or human factors, remained limited. However, few tangible benefits to respiratory health were detected. Overall, these findings are grounds for optimism about the potential for of smallholder biogas to contribute to more sustainable development, in China and beyond. |
| Keywords: | Energy Production and Transportation,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Renewable Energy,Engineering,Energy and Environment |
| Date: | 2012–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6102&r=cwa |
| By: | Bachev, Hrabrin |
| Abstract: | This paper incorporates the interdisciplinary New Institutional Economics and presents a comprehensive framework for analyzing the risk management in agri-food sector. First, it specifies the diverse (natural, technical, behavioral, economic, policy etc.) type of agri-food risks, and the (market, private, public and hybrid) modes of their management. Second, it defines the efficiency of risk management and identifies (personal, institutional, dimensional, technological, natural) factors of governance choice. Next, it presents stages in analysis of risk management and for the improvement of public intervention in the risk governance. Finally, it identifies contemporary opportunities and challenges for risk governance in agri-food chain. |
| Keywords: | risk management; market; private; and public governance; agri-food chain |
| JEL: | L25 D81 Q12 Q18 D23 L14 Q52 O17 Q13 L22 |
| Date: | 2012–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:39594&r=cwa |
| By: | Philip Hans Franses (Econometric Institute Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam); Michael McAleer (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands, Department of Quantitative Economics, Complutense University of Madrid, and Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University.); Rianne Legerstee (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute The Netherlands) |
| Abstract: | Macroeconomic forecasts are frequently produced, widely published, intensively discussed and comprehensively used. The formal evaluation of such forecasts has a long research history. Recently, a new angle to the evaluation of forecasts has been addressed, and in this review we analyse some recent developments from that perspective. The literature on forecast evaluation predominantly assumes that macroeconomic forecasts are generated from econometric models. In practice, however, most macroeconomic forecasts, such as those from the IMF, World Bank, OECD, Federal Reserve Board, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the ECB, are typically based on econometric model forecasts jointly with human intuition. This seemingly inevitable combination renders most of these forecasts biased and, as such, their evaluation becomes non-standard. In this review, we consider the evaluation of two forecasts in which: (i) the two forecasts are generated from two distinct econometric models; (ii) one forecast is generated from an econometric model and the other is obtained as a combination of a model and intuition; and (iii) the two forecasts are generated from two distinct (but unknown) combinations of different models and intuition. It is shown that alternative tools are needed to compare and evaluate the forecasts in each of these three situations. These alternative techniques are illustrated by comparing the forecasts from the (econometric) Staff of the Federal Reserve Board and the FOMC on inflation, unemployment and real GDP growth. It is shown that the FOMC does not forecast significantly better than the Staff, and that the intuition of the FOMC does not add significantly in forecasting the actual values of the economic fundamentals. This would seem to belie the purported expertise of the FOMC. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomic forecasts, econometric models, human intuition, biased forecasts, forecast performance, forecast evaluation, forecast comparison. |
| JEL: | C22 C51 C52 C53 E27 E37 |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:doicae:1214&r=cwa |
| By: | Sumru Altug; Fabio Canova |
| Abstract: | We examine the relationship between institutions, culture and cyclical fluctuations for a sample of 45 European, Middle Eastern and North African countries. Better governance is associated with shorter and less severe contractions and milder expansions. Certain cultural traits, such as lack of acceptance of power distance and individualism, are also linked business cycle features. Business cycle synchronization is tightly related to similarities in the institutional environment. Mediterranean countries conform to these general tendencies. |
| Keywords: | Business cycles, institutions, culture, Mediterranean countries, synchronization. |
| JEL: | C32 E32 |
| Date: | 2012–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1314&r=cwa |
| By: | Enrico Spolaore; Romain Wacziarg |
| Abstract: | We examine the empirical relationship between the occurrence of inter-state conflicts and the degree of relatedness between countries, measured by genetic distance. We find that populations that are genetically closer are more prone to go to war with each other, even after controlling for numerous measures of geographic distance and other factors that affect conflict, including measures of trade and democracy. These findings are consistent with a framework in which conflict over rival and excludable goods (such as territory and resources) is more likely among populations that share more similar preferences, and inherit such preferences with variation from their ancestors. |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tuf:tuftec:0769&r=cwa |
| By: | Nickolas Cherrier |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the role played by the newly created European External Action Service as an instrument of cooperation for EU foreign policy. Using two-dimensions spatial modelling to represent decision making at 27 in a unanimity rule Foreign Affairs Council, it highlights the role of agenda-setting, while acknowledging the importance of saliency and coalition sizes. It confirms the notion that it is in the interest of less influential Member States to free ride, while it remains in the interest of more influential Member States to impose their preferences on others. In exploring third party diplomacy and the wider EU institutional setting, it concludes that the EEAS carries efficiency gains and results in a redistribution of utility across Member States. Overall, the EEAS is not seen as a supranational foreign policy maker, but rather as an instrument reinforcing the influence of Member States. |
| Date: | 2012–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eiq:eileqs:48&r=cwa |