|
on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | David Hulme; Rorden Wilkinson |
| Abstract: | Abstract This paper evaluates the major options for reformulating the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Our purpose is to add weight and direction to emerging thinking on MDG reformulation in a way that: (i) reaffirms the importance of global efforts to reduce extreme poverty; (ii) overcomes the problems endemic in the existing MDGs; (iii) accelerates the reduction of extreme poverty globally; (iv) builds the foundations of a more comprehensive global development programme; (v) tailors poverty reduction efforts to local conditions and strengthens national-level poverty eradication policies; and (iv) offers a realizable prospect for maintaining momentum in UN development efforts. |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bwp:bwppap:16812&r=cwa |
| By: | Faizel Ismail |
| Abstract: | Abstract The World Trade Organization (WTO) Doha Round of negotiations has been at an impasse since December 2008. Several academics and opinion makers have argued recently that the Doha Round is “dead”. This paper discusses the US narrative on the reasons for the impasse in the Doha Round and the way forward. It contrasts this narrative with that of the major developing country alliances in the WTO and considers some underlying causes for the current impasse in the Doha Round. The paper concludes that the US narrative that the Doha Round is dead is not supported by the majority of the WTO’s members and that, whilst a conclusion of the Doha Round is not likely in the near future, there is no viable alternative to concluding the Doha Round on its current development mandate. |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bwp:bwppap:16712&r=cwa |
| By: | Grossman, Gene M. (Princeton University); Horn, Henrik (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | This study is part of The American Law Institute (ALI) project Legal and Economic Principles of World Trade Law. The project aims to analyze the central instrument in the World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreement for the regulation of trade in goods – The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GATT). The present study is one of two background studies for this project*. The first study, The Genesis of the GATT, appraises the rationale for the creation of the GATT, and tracks its development from a historical and legal perspective. This second study provides an overview of the economics of trade agreements. * There is a second leg to the ALI project, in which economists and lawyers jointly analyze the emerging case law from the WTO dispute-settlement mechanism. |
| Keywords: | Trade agreements; GATT; WTO |
| JEL: | F13 |
| Date: | 2012–05–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:0916&r=cwa |
| By: | Dilek Seymen (Dokuz Eylül University); Baþak Gümüþtekin (Republic of Turkey Ministry of Economy) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to measure trade competitiveness of Research and Development (R&D) intensive goods of Turkey in the European Union (EU) market, using different trade indices. Concentration Ratio (Michaely, 1958), Export-Import Commodity Composition Index (Muscatelli, 1991), Intra-Industry Trade Index (Grubel, Lloyd, 1971) and Sectoral-Bilateral Trade Intensity Ratios (Seymen, 2009) are calculated to analyze the technology composition of manufacturing goods trade between Turkey and the EU27. Revealed Comparative Advantage Index (Balassa, 1965), Marginal Intra-Industry Trade Index (Brulhart, 1994), and Sectoral-Bilateral Competitiveness Index (Seymen, 2009) are employed to gain insight about the bilateral competition between two parties. Thus, once the general situation related to the R&D intensive goods trade between Turkey and the EU is detected, it will be possible to draw some policy implications through a future study in the following phase, by identifying the value added structures, exterior input dependence and vertical-horizontal specialization levels of the goods revealed to have competitive advantage in this study. |
| Keywords: | R&D intensive goods trade, competitiveness, Turkey & EU Trade |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tek:wpaper:2012/24&r=cwa |
| By: | Amber, Fatima; Muhammad, Shahbaz; Faridul, Islam |
| Abstract: | Poverty alleviation, a complex multidimensional phenomenon, is among the most formidable challenges for policymakers in developing nation. Despite mixed results on the long term impact on poverty, the general view is that if implemented and managed carefully, trade and investment can help promote economic growth and alleviate poverty. The paper empirically examines the impact of trade and investment on poverty alleviation in Pakistan by employing the Johansen-Juselius (1990) approach to cointegration for a long run relation; and the error correction mechanism for the short run dynamics. The results suggest that poverty alleviation policy has brought fruition in Pakistan and helped achieve the objective both in the short and the long run. The findings should help policymakers determine appropriate strategy in addressing the economic growth vis-à-vis poverty. While investment is a key to promoting economic growth, trade openness can also help by improving business climate through access to modern capital and technical know-how; and lead to sustained economic growth in Pakistan. |
| Keywords: | Trade; Investment; poverty; cointegration |
| JEL: | F1 |
| Date: | 2012–05–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:39068&r=cwa |
| By: | Edward L. Glaeser |
| Abstract: | There are many possible ways of reforming the Government-Sponsored Enterprises that insure mortgages against default, including a purely public option, complete privatization or a hybrid model with private firms and public catastrophic insurance. If the government is sufficiently capable and benign, either public intervention can yield desirable outcomes; the key risks of any reform come from the political process. This paper examines the political risks, related to corruption and populism, of differing approaches to the problems of monopoly, externalities and market breakdowns in asset insurance. If there is a high probability that political leadership will be induced to pursue policies that maximize the profitability of private entities at the expense of taxpayers, then purely public options create lower social losses. If there is a high probability that leaders will pursue a populist agenda of lowering prices or borrowing costs, then catastrophic risk insurance can lead to lower social losses than either complete laissez-faire of a pure public option. |
| JEL: | D0 G0 H0 |
| Date: | 2012–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18112&r=cwa |
| By: | Monica Martinez-Bravo; Gerard Padró i Miquel; Nancy Qian; Yang Yao |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the effects of introducing elections on public goods and redistribution in rural China. We collect a large and unique survey to document the history of political reforms and economic policies and exploit the staggered timing of the introduction of elections for causal identification. We find that elections significantly increase public goods expenditure, the increase corresponds to demand and is paralleled by an increase in public goods provision and local taxes. We also find that elections cause significant income redistribution within villages. The results support the basic assumptions of recent theories of democratization (Acemoglu and Robinson, 2000; Lizzeri and Persico, 2004). In addition, we show that the main mechanism underlying the effect of elections is increased leader incentives. |
| JEL: | H11 O38 P16 |
| Date: | 2012–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18101&r=cwa |
| By: | Birner, Regina; Sekher, Madhushree; Raabe, Katharina |
| Abstract: | Strategies to reform rural service provision in India have focused on improving people's capacity to demand better services from government agencies. However, efforts to reform the public-sector agencies that provide essential rural services have been limited. Moreover, major knowledge gaps exist on how incentive problems and governance challenges vary across the agencies that provide the services and how they can be addressed. This paper aims to contribute to this knowledge gap. The empirical analysis is based on a survey of 206 field-level staff members of five government departments that provide rural services: Agriculture, Animal Husbandry, Food and Civil Supplies, Women and Child Development, and Rural Development and Panchayati Raj (local government). The paper also draws on a survey of 966 rural households that receive services from these departments. The analysis indicates that there are significant differences across departments regarding the incentives and constraints faced by their frontline service providers. Lack of staff was found to be a major constraint for agricultural and veterinary services, whereas frontline staff in charge of food distribution and civil works experienced political interference as a particularly serious constraint. Contrary to widely held assumptions, availability of funding and administrative procedures was not considered by frontline staff as a major constraint. The findings from the household survey indicate that access and satisfaction with services differ significantly according to caste and gender, even though these effects are not uniform across services. The paper compares the findings of the study with the recommendations of the country's Second Administrative Reform Commission and concludes that some constraints, such as political interference, require more attention to make service delivery responsive to the needs of the poor. |
| Keywords: | public-sector management reform, Rural service provision, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1175&r=cwa |
| By: | Jawaid, Syed Tehseen; Raza, Syed Ali |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the effect of workers’ remittances on economic growth of five South Asian countries namely Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka & Nepal by employing long time series data from 1975 to 2009. Cointegration results confirm that there exist significant positive long run relationship between remittances and economic growth in India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal while, significant negative relationship exist between remittances and economic growth in Pakistan. Causality analysis shows bidirectional causality between remittances and economic growth in Nepal and Sri Lanka. On the other hand, unidirectional causality exist, runs from remittances to economic growth in Pakistan, India and Bangladesh. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the results are robust. It suggested that policy makers should make policies to reduce the transaction cost to welcome remittances in the region. In addition, countries especially Pakistan should more relying on increasing exports rather than workers’ remittances as foreign exchange earnings for sustainable and long run growth in the country. |
| Keywords: | Remittances; Economic Growth |
| JEL: | F43 F24 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:39001&r=cwa |
| By: | Jawaid, Syed Tehseen; Raza, Syed Ali |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the relationship between workers’ remittances and economic growth by using 7 years average annual data of 113 countries from the period 2003 to 2009. Results indicate the positive and significant relationship between workers’ remittances and economic growth in sample of low income, middle income, high income and all countries. Results also show that the workers’ remittances are more contributing in high income countries as compare to low and middle income countries. Sensitivity analysis has been performed to test the consistency of initial results and confirms that the results are robust. Unconditional convergence results confirm the convergence in all categories. Results confirm that countries are coming together with respect to per capita income. Results of conditional convergence based on workers’ remittances model suggest the low and middle income countries are converging each other more rapidly. Conversely, results show that high income and all countries models are converging each other but at slower pace in conditional model with workers’ remittances as compare to unconditional model. |
| Keywords: | Remittances; Economic Growth; Cross Country Analysis |
| JEL: | O47 F43 F24 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:39002&r=cwa |
| By: | Singh, Ajit; Sheng, Andrew |
| Abstract: | After a brief recent empirical sketch of Islamic finance, the paper turns to its main theoretical and conceptual purpose. It seeks to relate the concepts of Islamic and conventional finance, and to examine certain important questions which arise from the interaction between these systems. The paper is written from the perspective of conventional modern economics, as the authors are students of the latter. The paper discusses the main tenets of Islamic finance, as well as those of modern economics, including the implications of zero interest rates and those of Modigliani and Miller theorems. The most notable finding of this paper is that John Maynard Keynes’ analysis of employment, interest and money provides, inadvertently, the best rationale for some of the basic precepts of Islamic finance. The paper concludes that there is no inevitable conflict between the two systems and cooperation between them is eminently desirable and feasible. |
| Keywords: | Islamic Finance; Moral Hazard; Keynes; Zero Interest Rates; Usuary |
| JEL: | A13 E40 B41 |
| Date: | 2011–11–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:39007&r=cwa |
| By: | Hasan, Zubair |
| Abstract: | The present paper attempts two demonstrations. First, it shows that the Excel formula Islamic banks invariably use to determine the fixed installment payments in home financing amortization has explicit compounding of return. Once the installment is based on that formula, the subsequent claims that in implementation the charge becomes free of interest hardly remain tenable. Second, the paper proposes an alternative home finance model where the mortgage contract has several merits over the structure in common use i.e. the musharakah mutanaqisa program or the MMP. The proposed model is cheaper for the buyer while the margin of return for the banker is not reduced; thus, painting a win-win situation for both. It attracts no juristic doubts. Some bankers of international repute have already hailed the model as an innovative useful breakthrough in the area of Islamic finance. Finally, the model aligns better than others with the maqasid or the objectives of the Islamic law. |
| Keywords: | Home finance; conventional model; mortgages; MMP; ZDBM; Social view |
| JEL: | G21 |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:39067&r=cwa |
| By: | Yu-Hsiang Lei; Guy Michaels |
| Abstract: | We use new data to examine the effects of giant oilfield discoveries around the world since 1946. On average, these discoveries increase per capita oil production and oil exports by up to 50 percent. But these giant oilfield discoveries also have a dark side: they increase the incidence of internal armed conflict by about 5-8 percentage points. This increased incidence of conflict due to giant oilfield discoveries is especially high for countries that had already experienced armed conflicts or coups in the decade prior to discovery. |
| Keywords: | Natural resources, resource curse, petroleum, armed conflict, civil war |
| JEL: | Q34 Q33 O13 |
| Date: | 2012–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:371&r=cwa |
| By: | Sofía B. Ramos; Helena Veiga; Chih-Wei Wang |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes long term dependence between the market value of oil firms and oil prices. Applying nonlinear cointegration, the results show that in the long-run oil price hikes and falls show different adjustments to the equilibrium. Using a momentum threshold autoregressive model (MTAR), we find that for oil producing firms, the adjustment is faster for oil price falls than for oil price hikes, but we do not find a difference on the speed of adjustment for oil integrated firms. Moreover, testing for asymmetric cointegration, we also find that oil price falls impact substantially the value of oil producers and integrated firms, but the same is not found for oil price hikes. Overall, the evidence suggests that firm value stays above equilibrium relationship when there are oil price hikes. |
| Keywords: | Asymmetric cointegration, ECM models, MTAR models, Oil prices, Oil industry |
| JEL: | G15 Q43 |
| Date: | 2012–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:wsrepe:ws120502&r=cwa |
| By: | Dizaji, S.F. |
| Abstract: | The main purpose of this study is to investigate the dynamic relationship between government revenues and government expenditures in Iran as a developing oil export based economy. Moreover, I want to know how government expenditures and revenues respond to oil price (revenue) shocks. I use two different groups of the variables with two different time periods (quarterly and annually) to investigate the robustness and reliability of the results and to provide a more comprehensive base for comparison against different methodologies. For the first group of the variables (including oil price, oil revenues to GDP ratio, government total expenditures to GDP ratio and a dummy variable for capturing the effects of war with Iraq) I apply an SVAR model using annual data for the period 1970-2008. The results of the impulse response functions and variance decomposition analysis indicate that the causality is running from oil revenues to GDP ratio to government total expenditures to GDP ratio. Moreover the contribution of oil revenue shocks in explaining the government expenditures to GDP ratio is stronger than the contribution of oil price shocks. For the second group of the variables (oil revenues, government total revenues, government current expenditures, government capital expenditures, money supply and CPI) unrestricted VAR and VEC models have been applied using quarterly data for the period 1990:2-2009:1. The results of the impulse response functions and variance decompositions analysis for both VAR and VEC models indicate that the strong causality is running from government revenues to government expenditures (both current and capital) in Iranian economy while the evidence for the reverse causality is very weak. The results show that in the VEC model which the long-run behavior of endogenous variables is restricted to converge to their co-integration relationships, oil revenue shocks can affect the other macroeconomic variables more directly while in the VAR model this changes and works through the total revenues channel. Moreover the findings indicate that government revenues, government expenditures and money supply are important determinants of domestic price level in Iranian economy. Overall my results support the revenue-spending hypothesis for Iran. In this context Iran should enhance the effectiveness of fiscal policy by making budget expenditure less driven by revenue availability. This policy can help to avoid the costs and instability that variations in public spending generate mostly due to the fluctuations in oil revenues. |
| Keywords: | government expenditures;sanctions;Iran;government revenues;oil shocks;vector autoregression (VAR) |
| Date: | 2012–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:euriss:540&r=cwa |
| By: | Hasan, Dr. Syed Akif; Subhani, Dr. Muhammad Imtiaz; Osman, Ms. Amber |
| Abstract: | Recall and Recognition, two important aspects when one talks about advertising and consumers awareness towards the brands. This study has mainly been focused on the brand symbols and its importance in the mind of the consumers. Does a brand symbol really play a role of differentiating a brand from another and how well it gets associated with the consumer? Questions like these are well-answered in this research. 250 respondents from the largest city of Pakistan i.e. Karachi were handed over a questionnaire on 18 brand symbols on an un-restricted non-probability sampling criteria. Education, age and gender are the focus of this study predicting the recall and recognition of the brand symbols. Consumer behavior entails variations towards selection of brand and the change in behavior is mostly due to brand recall and not recognition, which was found by testing the variables through multiple linear regressions (OLS-Model). It was of interest to find that except of gender, there is no association found between recognition of brand symbols and the said variables. Age has positive impact on recall of brand symbols and education has negative impact on recall of brand symbols. Furthermore, gender plays no role in predicting the recall and but somehow associated with recognition of brand symbols. |
| Keywords: | brand recall; brand recognition; brand symbols; age; gender; education; consumer behavior |
| JEL: | A1 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:39098&r=cwa |
| By: | Hasan, Dr. Syed Akif; Subhani, Dr. Muhammad Imtiaz; Osman, Ms. Amber |
| Abstract: | Culture is pivotal in shaping the behavior of an individual. Clothing is one way looking at the culture of one and this research in specific investigates about eastern clothing of men. The origin comes from South Asia i.e. Pakistan. The preference of eastern wear by the male segment has changed drastically as sub-cultures have evolved (inter-marriage with different caste), westernization and consumer’s choices and preference change with time and fashion. The current personality and purchase intent towards eastern clothing was studied with the sample of 267 male respondents from Karachi. The One Sample Test analysis resulted in positive association between personality factor and purchasing decision but a negative association between purchasing decision and product composition, product performance, service quality, marketing factor, social factor and cultural factor. Today’s environment is crucial to the consumer behavior that is the men purchase intentions are variable and does not get easily influenced by the factors(performance, quality, social and cultural etc) pushing the male consumers to purchase the eastern clothing whereas, if the marketer of the eastern clothing hits the jackpot i.e. the personality of the men target segment as its relative to their purchasing decision, it will help the marketers and the organization to attract this segment and increase sales for eastern clothing. |
| Keywords: | Purchase intention; Men buying behavior; Clothing; Culture; Personality; Eastern wear |
| JEL: | M3 A1 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:39100&r=cwa |
| By: | Subhani, Dr. Muhammad Imtiaz |
| Abstract: | The personality traits which include physical appearance in particular always matter once an organization goes for hiring new entrants. The principal point of this study is to comprehend the relationship of a candidate's physical appearance, qualification, dressing style, attractive communication skills, gender, and candidate’s photograph on resume with the hiring decision taken by a manager. The findings of this paper reveal that decision of hiring managers does not necessarily based upon the physical attractiveness but is influenced by various other factors which include candidate’s appearance, his/her dressing style and educational qualifications. |
| Keywords: | Photograph; Physical attractiveness; Hiring; Selection; Recruitment; Dressing style |
| JEL: | A1 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:39104&r=cwa |
| By: | Aysýt Tansel (Middle East Technical University); Elif Öznur Kan (Cankaya University) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we examine the formal/informal sector earnings differentials in the Turkish labor market using detailed econometric methodologies and a novel panel data set drawn from the 2006-2009 Income and Living Conditions Survey (SILC). In particular, we test if there is evidence of traditional segmented labor markets theory which postulates that informal workers are typically subject to lower remuneration than similar workers in the formal sector. Estimation of standard Mincer earnings equations at the mean using OLS on a pooled sample of workers confirms the existence of an informal penalty, but also shows that almost half of this penalty can be explained by observable variables. Along wage/self-employment divide, our results are in line with the traditional theory that formal-salaried workers are paid significantly higher than their informal counterparts. Confirming the heterogeneity within informal employment, we find that self-employed are often subject to lower remuneration compared to those who are salaried. Moreover, using quantile regression estimations, we show that pay differentials are not uniform along the earnings distribution. More specifically, we find that informal penalty decreases with the earnings level, implying a heterogeneous informal sector with upper-tier jobs carrying a significant premium and lower-tier jobs being largely penalized. Finally, fixed effects estimation of the earnings gap depict that unobserved individual fixed effects when combined with controls for observable individual and employment characteristics explain the pay differentials between formal and informal employment entirely, thereby implying that formal/informal segmentation may not be a stylized fact of the Turkish labor market as previously thought. |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tek:wpaper:2012/23&r=cwa |