|
on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Anders Aslund (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | The response of the ten new eastern members of the European Union to the global financial crisis has valuable lessons of crisis resolution for the euro area. These countries were severely hit by the crisis in the fall of 2008 and responded with extensive reforms. Crisis made the unthinkable possible. This paper outlines the main reform measures that the ten Central and East European (CEE) countries carried out. It then quantifies to what extent the CEE countries resolved the macroeconomic crisis and explores the effects of the reforms on future growth prospects. The fourth and major section discusses how the political economy of the crisis resolution actually worked. Finally, the author examines what lessons euro area countries can learn from the crisis resolution of the newest members of the European Union. |
| Keywords: | Financial Crises, Central and Eastern Europe, Policy |
| JEL: | P16 G01 E61 E62 F30 H0 |
| Date: | 2012–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp12-7&r=cwa |
| By: | Banse, Martin; Salamon, Petra; von Ledebur, Oliver; van Leeuwen, Myrna; Bouma, Foppe; Salputra, Guna; Fellmann, Thomas; Nekhay, Olexandr |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of the future developments of Russian and Ukrainian agricultural sectors and their impact on the world market prices for arable crops. Employed in the study is AGMEMOD, a partial equilibrium economic model of EU agriculture at the Member State level that has been extended by Russia and Ukraine to gain quantitative insights. Vital for the project has also been the integration of an endogenous world market price module including a stylized Rest of the World (ROW) model. In Russia and Ukraine, there is a strong focus on plant production in general and on grain based animal production; Russia and Ukraine are mostly net-exports of those products. Under the baseline, in Russia prices for crops and oilseeds are below the world market price level. In general, the removals of the trade measures in Russia and Ukraine are projected to induce world market prices of cereals and oilseeds to decline. |
| Keywords: | Partial equilibrium model, price formation, Russia, Ukraine, Agricultural and Food Policy, Risk and Uncertainty, |
| Date: | 2012–02–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa123:122536&r=cwa |
| By: | Shaikh, Salman |
| Abstract: | Poverty and inequality around the world has been rising over the last three decades and the attainment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) seems a far fetched goal. In explaining underdevelopment, Classical Economics has offered many theories and models including but not limited to Rostow’s Stages of Growth Theory, Harrod-Domar Model, Solow’s Growth Model, Dependency Theory, Lewis Two Sector Model, Neo-colonial Dependence Model, False-Paradigm Model, and Dualistic-Development Thesis etc. This study analyzes the theories of development proposed in classical literature in the light of Islamic Economics and investigates whether policy response influenced by some of these theories had been effective or not in selected countries and regions. In light of recent developments in growth literature, the last section of the paper also analyzes whether Islamic economics principles have the capacity to ensure that determinants of growth suggested by ‘new growth theory’ will exist in an Islamic economy and together with these, do Islamic economic principles have other distinctive mechanisms and institutions that can help in the development process. |
| Keywords: | Interest free economy; Public finance; Taxation; Inequality; Income redistribution; Islamic economic system; fiscal policy; deficit financing |
| JEL: | O11 L38 I31 |
| Date: | 2012–04–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:38530&r=cwa |
| By: | Sergey Kolesnikov; Olga Podkorytova |
| Keywords: | WTO, Russia, gravity model, trade flows, non-oil trade |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:deg:conpap:c016_068&r=cwa |
| By: | Elena Mitsek; Sergey Mitsek |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:deg:conpap:c016_030&r=cwa |
| By: | Krüger, Niclas (VTI) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between infrastructure investments and economic activity in Sweden for the period 1800-2000. In order to overcome the problem of endogeneity, independent time scales are used to analyze the relationship. The paper also examines the dynamics between the variables by testing for causality in the Granger sense and constructing a vector autoregressive model separately for each time scale. The finding is that the causality nexus between growth and transport infrastructure investment is timescale-dependent since it reverses in a comparison of the short-run dynamics (2-4 years) and the longer-run dynamics (8-16 years). This causality reversal is unique for infrastructure investments compared to investments in other sectorsof the economy. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure; GDP growth; Investment; Time scale decomposition |
| JEL: | E22 E32 N70 |
| Date: | 2012–05–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2012_015&r=cwa |
| By: | Verspagen, Bart (UNU-MERIT / MGSOG, and School of Business and Economics, Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | The empirical literature on economic growth agrees that institutions and governance are important determinants of long-run economic growth rates. As a stylized fact, this literature points to a strong correlation between the level of GDP per capita and the general development level of institutions and governance. However, the growth rate of GDP per capita itself, as well as other indicators that are broadly associated with the level of economic development, are generally much less strongly correlated with the level of institutional development. We document these correlations, and argue that there is a need for a broader set of stylized facts about institutions, governance and economic development, covering the broader set of economic indicators, including the growth rate itself. To find such stylized facts, we use canonical correlation analysis. We use a database on institutions and governance that has a very large number of indicators, and our analysis produces a number of aggregated measurements of institutions and governance that broadly correlate with patterns of economic development. The analysis confirms the correlation between the general level of economic development on the one hand, and institutional development on the other hand, which is the core stylized fact identified in the literature. In addition to this, our analysis points to the general attitude towards markets, and the level of financial development as specific dimensions of the institutional and governance characteristics of a country that correlate highly with specific development patterns. In particular, we find that a positive attitude towards markets combined with a low level of financial development goes together with growth rates, based on catching-up. We also find that a tendency towards market steering combined with strong financial development goes together with a high involvement in international trade (openness), combined with a low investment rate. |
| Keywords: | institutions, governance, economic development |
| JEL: | O10 O16 O17 O43 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:unumer:2012036&r=cwa |
| By: | Kemeny, Gabor; Fogarasi, Jozsef; Varga, Tibor; Toth, Orsolya; Toth, Kristof |
| Abstract: | Increasing price volatility of agricultural commodities over the last decade has focused a growing body of literature to identify the influencing factors of price variability. We analyze the effect of increasing wheat export from the Former Soviet Union (FSU) countries to the international wheat market and price volatility. The major wheat producer and exporter FSU countries, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan have experienced increasing share on the international wheat market. An ordinary least square method is applied to estimate the influence of wheat export from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan on the international wheat price volatility. We found evidence of positive relationship between international wheat price and the expanding net wheat export from FSU. |
| Keywords: | wheat price volatility, wheat export, FSU countries, Risk and Uncertainty, Q17, O13, |
| Date: | 2012–02–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa123:122550&r=cwa |
| By: | Sheremenko, Ganna; Escalante, Cesar L.; Florkowski, Wojciech J. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines delinquency, profitability, and outreach determinants of microfinance institutions’ (MFIs) performance in Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. The estimation is done using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) technique. The estimation results suggest that the regions' MFIs are profit-driven but are expected to improve outreach in the long-run. |
| Keywords: | Microfinance institution, SUR, Financial sustainability, Delinquency, Profitability, Social outreach, Agricultural Finance, Financial Economics, International Development, G20, G21, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea12:123286&r=cwa |
| By: | Yuri Yegorov |
| Abstract: | The goal of this article is to discuss the interaction between Russian demographic problems and its specialization on the extraction of natural resources. We have several simultaneous processes since 1990s: specialization in extraction of natural resources and demographic problem caused by low fertility in 1990s. Russia has no labor scarcity at present, but will face it in 10 years. Also, its proven oil resources are only for 20 years, and this calls for a necessity of economic diversification. While resource-extraction technology is less labor intensive, movement to technological development will require more labor, and this labor should be skilled. Thus, Russia faces a problem of optimal transition from resource extraction to technological development with simultaneous labor training in the environment of its growing scarcity. Capital from resource export can be used for both investment in new technologies and demographic recovery. Fertility is also endogenous here, depending on consumption level. The policy implications are very important. While there is little reason for boosting fertility initially (since extraction sector is not labor intensive), demography has high inertia, and it will be too late after, especially when oil resources will be close to depletion. The formal modelling is done is the framework of two sector growth model. A sequence of models of dynamic growth, starting from more simple towards more complex, is suggested. |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:deg:conpap:c016_061&r=cwa |
| By: | Michael Kumhof; Jaromir Benes; Ondra Kamenik; Susanna Mursula; Marcelle Chauvet; Jack Selody; Douglas Laxton |
| Abstract: | We discuss and reconcile two diametrically opposed views concerning the future of world oil production and prices. The geological view expects that physical constraints will dominate the future evolution of oil output and prices. It is supported by the fact that world oil production has plateaued since 2005 despite historically high prices, and that spare capacity has been near historic lows. The technological view of oil expects that higher oil prices must eventually have a decisive effect on oil output, by encouraging technological solutions. It is supported by the fact that high prices have, since 2003, led to upward revisions in production forecasts based on a purely geological view. We present a nonlinear econometric model of the world oil market that encompasses both views. The model performs far better than existing empirical models in forecasting oil prices and oil output out of sample. Its point forecast is for a near doubling of the real price of oil over the coming decade. The error bands are wide, and reflect sharply differing judgments on ultimately recoverable reserves, and on future price elasticities of oil demand and supply. |
| Keywords: | Demand , Economic models , External shocks , Oil prices , Oil production , Supply , |
| Date: | 2012–05–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/109&r=cwa |
| By: | Fatima Lambarraa (Georg-August-University Göttingen); Gerhard Riener (University of Jena) |
| Abstract: | Charitable giving is one of the major obligations Islam and a strong Muslim norm endorses giving to the needy, but discourages public displays of giving. This norm is puzzling in light of previous evidence, suggesting that making donations public often increases giving. We use an experiment to assess the effects this moral prescription on actual giving levels in an anonymous and in a public setting. We conducted two field experiments with 534 and 186 subjects at Moroccan educational institutions. Subjects who participated in a paid study were given the option to donate from their payment to a local orphanage, under treatments that varied the publicity of the donation and the salience of Islamic values. In the salient Islamic treatment, anonymity of donations significantly increased donation incidence as well as average donations for religious subjects. This stands in stark contrast to most previous findings in the charitable giving literature. |
| Keywords: | Charitable giving; Islam; Social pressure; Priming; Religion; Norms; Field experiment |
| JEL: | H40 C93 D01 Z12 |
| Date: | 2012–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:gotcrc:111&r=cwa |
| By: | Mohcine Bakhat (Economics for Energy); Jaume Roselló (University of the Balearic Islands) |
| Abstract: | During the last years, tourism has received increasing attention due to its environmental impacts. Particularly, the use of fossil energy has been considered as one of its major environmental problems and also one of the factors directly related to climatic change. Various studies have estimated the contribution of tourism to environmental damage using a sectorial perspective, evaluating the impact of air transport, the accommodation sector or other tourism-related economic sector. In this paper, the contribution of tourism to diesel oil and gasoline consumption is considered from a broader framework, taking advantage of monthly information collected from different sources. Considering the case study of the Balearic Islands (Spain) and using a conventional econometric model that includes data for monthly stocks of tourists, the influence of tourism on diesel oil and gasoline demand is estimated. |
| Keywords: | Diesel oil demand, gasoline demand, tourism contribution, environment impacts |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:efe:wpaper:05-2011&r=cwa |
| By: | Rosa, Franco; Vasciaveo, Michela |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to analyse the volatility and interactions among prices of agricultural commodities in Italy and US using the time series analysis. The cross market interactions are examined to test the hypothesis that the increased volatility of agricultural prices has been caused by crude oil price, then the cointegration and causality among different markets is also tested. For this analysis the spot prices of wheat, corn, soybeans in US and Italy and crude oil prices spanning from 2002 to 2010 are used. The results suggest the following considerations: i) the existence of causality in US markets with exogeneity of the oil on the US agricultural commodities, ii) evidence of cointegration between US and Italian commodities, suggesting a condition of market efficiency, iii) no evidence of cointegration between oil and Italian agri-commodities. The conclusion is that the oil volatility is transmitted to the US Ag- markets while US Ag- markets have influenced the volatility of the Italian agricultural markets. |
| Keywords: | time series analysis, agricultural commodity prices, linear and nonlinear Granger causality, market integration, Risk and Uncertainty, C14, C19, Q13, |
| Date: | 2012–02–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa123:122530&r=cwa |
| By: | Bachev, Hrabrin |
| Abstract: | This paper presents issues and challenges for farm and enterprise diversification and integration of small scale farmers into value chains in East Europe and Central Asia (EECA). First, it discuses context and approaches to agricultural and rural income diversification. Second, it assesses the extent of agricultural diversification in EECA. Third, it identifies issues, challenges and lessons learnt of the integration of small farmers into agricultural value chains in the region. Forth, it outlines options and areas of intervention to foster diversification and market inclusion of smallholders in EECA. Finally, it concludes with recommendations for improvement of public policies and international assistance. |
| Keywords: | farm and income diversification; smallholders market inclusion; East European and Central Asian farming transformation; agrarian policies |
| JEL: | Q17 Q13 P27 R12 Q12 Q18 |
| Date: | 2012–01–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:38683&r=cwa |
| By: | Simon Sturn (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK) at the Hans Boeckler Foundation) |
| Abstract: | Until now there exists no consensus view on the determinants of unemployment. Whereas some empirical papers find that mainly labour market institutions explain unemployment, others argue that this correlation is not robust. One explanation for these contradictory results is that labour market institutions affect unemployment in varying labour market regimes differently. Due to institutional complementarities and a trade-off between external and internal flexibility, certain labour market institutions show different impacts on unemployment depending on the general institutional arrangement. Support for this is found when testing for the impact of labour market institutions on unemployment in different labour market regimes with panel data for 20 OECD countries in the period 1982 to 2003. While external labour market flexibility shows the expected impact on unemployment in some countries, this is not the case in corporatist countries, which are characterised by high internal flexibility and good labour relations. Taking account of the regime is therefore crucial for successful labour market policy. Additionally, high real interest rates and restrictive monetary and fiscal policy in downturns are found to increase unemployment, suggesting that policy makers should react actively to economic downturns. |
| JEL: | E3 E6 H1 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:wpaper:6-2011&r=cwa |