|
on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Shreedhar, Ganga |
| Abstract: | The combination of the recent global food and financial crises has had severe negative consequences on food security in Tajikistan. High dependence on food imports has made Tajikistan extremely vulnerable to the increasing global food prices and the volatility and transmission of global food prices was an important dimension of the food price crisis in the country. Excessive reliance on labor remittances exacerbated Tajikistan's food insecurity and the vulnerability of its households. This study examines the impact of recent food and economic crises on macro- and household-level food security in the country using macro-, sectoral-, and household-level data from national and international sources. The study also discusses overall trends in economic growth and poverty reduction, constraints and bottlenecks on agricultural growth and productivity, and other policies that may mitigate the negative effects of future external shocks. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Financial crisis, food security, global food crisis, Land reform, Remittances, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1163&r=cwa |
| By: | Lin, Justin Yifu; Rosenblatt, David |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an historical overview of both the evolution of the economic performance of the developing world and the evolution of economic thought on development policy. The 20th century was broadly characterized by divergence between high-income countries and the developing world, with only a limited number (less than 10 percent of the economies in the world) managing to progress out of lower or middle-income status to high-income status. The last decade witnessed a sharp reversal from a pattern of divergence to convergence --particularly for a set of large middle-income countries. The latter phenomenon was also driven by increasing economic ties among developing countries, and on the intellectual scale, increased knowledge generation and sharing among the developing countries. Re-thinking development policy implies confronting these realities: 20th century economic divergence, the experience of the handful of success stories, and the recent rise of the multi-polar growth world. The paper provides descriptive data and a literature survey to document these trends. The paper also provides a brief survey of the role of multilateral institutions -- in particular, the World Bank -- in this changing context and offers suggestions on how they can adapt their strategies to improve development outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets,Achieving Shared Growth,Debt Markets,Country Strategy&Performance |
| Date: | 2012–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6040&r=cwa |
| By: | Seyfettin Gursel (Bahcesehir University Center for Economic and Social Research (Betam)); Zumrut Imamoglu (Bahcesehir University Center for Economic and Social Research (Betam)) |
| Abstract: | The decrease in the share of agricultural employment in Turkey has been reversed recently, especially during the global crisis. Agricultural employment increased by 17 percent between 2007 and 2010 and its share in total employment increased by 1.7 percentage points above its 2007 level. This paper studies the causes of the increase in agricultural employment. Is the surge in agricultural employment stemming from a decrease in the non-agricultural employment opportunities and the decrease in non-agricultural wages during the crisis? Or, have increasing food prices around the world caused an increase in agricultural income, making the agricultural sector more attractive for employment? We use a two-sector small-open economy model to analyze the effect of changes in world agricultural prices on sectoral employment. In order to quantify the implications of our model we exploit the regional variation in agricultural employment across 26 regions in Turkey. We use panel data covering agricultural prices and production, non-agricultural wages, employment and regional inflation between 2004 and 2010. We find that agricultural prices play an important role in explaining the observed variation in agricultural employment in Turkey. We fail to find evidence on the effect of non-agricultural wages on agricultural employment. |
| Keywords: | Regional employment, agricultural employment, economic development |
| JEL: | E32 R10 |
| Date: | 2011–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bae:wpaper:004&r=cwa |
| By: | Tang, Hsiao Chink (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This question is examined via a standard import specification augmented with differential and time-varying impacts of each component of aggregate demand: consumption, investment, government spending, and exports. Several important variables in explaining import demand such as credit conditions and business and consumer sentiment are also included. A panel fixed-effects model adjusted for cross-sectional dependence is estimated for 11 Asian economies from 1Q91 to 2Q11. The result shows the import intensity of exports is the highest among all variables. Alone, however, it does not contribute to a larger fall in imports. The larger decline in imports will be evident if other components of aggregate demand also fall, particularly investment and consumption. A weakened credit condition will also exacerbate the fall in imports. Business and consumer sentiment, however, does not seem to matter. In crisis periods more nuanced results are evident. For example, fiscal contractions may have worsened the fall in imports during the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis, while the fall in exports also has an additional adverse impact. Business and consumer sentiment seems to have a lagged positive impact during the global financial crisis. |
| Keywords: | imports; exports; Asia; ASEAN; East Asia; crisis |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F31 |
| Date: | 2012–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbrei:0096&r=cwa |
| By: | Gupta, Abhijit Sen (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the extent of exchange rate coordination among Asian economies using a hypothetical Asian Currency Unit. Rising interdependence among Asian economies makes it vital for these economies to have a certain degree of exchange rate stability. However, the empirical evidence using an Asian Currency Unit suggests a widening deviation in exchange rate movements of the Asian currencies. The deviation has been driven by the adoption of different exchange rate regimes by the participating countries indicating diverse policy objectives. |
| Keywords: | exchange rate coordination; asia; asian currency unit; exchange rate regimes |
| JEL: | F15 F36 F55 |
| Date: | 2012–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0356&r=cwa |
| By: | Das Gupta, Chirashree |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the causal links between the role of public finance and Bihar's growth and development in the last decade; and argues that these links are tenuous. Bihar's growth acceleration precedes the ‘policy reforms' in public finance based on the ‘good governance' agenda initiated since 2005-06. However, the constraints on sustaining efforts to close Bihar's development gap with the rest of India stems from the nature of the growth process in its regional, sectoral and social dimensions and the contradictory means and ends of the ‘policy reforms' in public finance. Together, this has not only prevented the economic growth to add to public coiffeurs of the state but also occluded the role of tax institutions. |
| Keywords: | India, Corporate governance, Public finance, Local economy, Good Governance, Growth, Bihar, Political Economy |
| JEL: | O20 O40 P41 P43 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper331&r=cwa |
| By: | Armando Barrientos (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)) |
| Abstract: | Rapid population ageing and economic transformation in Asia raise the policy challenge of ensuring income security in old age. There is growing interest among policymakers in the potential role of noncontributory transfers as an instrument to address a variety of policy challenges, including old age poverty and vulnerability, rapid population ageing, the effects of migration on intergenerational family support structures, and the effects of informality on social protection systems. The main objective of this paper is to explore the potential role of social pensions and other noncontributory schemes in Asia, informed by insights from theory and international experience. The paper identifies alternative forms of providing income security in old age, including social pensions. It also examines the welfare effects of adopting alternative social pension designs, especially around two key policy nodes : the comparative advantages of social assistance and social pensions, and the integration of noncontributory transfers within advanced contributory pension schemes. |
| Keywords: | Social pension, Asia, population aging, income security, economic transformation, pension scheme |
| JEL: | H55 I38 J14 J32 O17 |
| Date: | 2012–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:develo:23294&r=cwa |
| By: | Birner, Regina; Gupta, Surupa; Sharma, Neeru |
| Abstract: | Agricultural policy reform is one of the major challenges facing India today. Such reform is required in order to reduce poverty through faster agricultural growth and to promote more sustainable use of natural resources while ensuring food security. Subsidy policies that promote the use of fertilizer and of electricity for groundwater irrigation are in particular need of reform. While subsidies for these two inputs played a crucial role in achieving India's Green Revolution, they have been criticized during the past decade for benefiting large-scale farmers more than smallholders, placing a fiscal burden on the state, and having negative environmental effects. By analyzing the evolution of these input subsidy policies and examining the political processes involved in efforts to reform them, this study throws new light on the factors that have so far prevented a move toward more pro-poor and environmentally sustainable agricultural input policies in India. The authors show that electoral politics, institutional factors, and policy paradigms or belief systems all play an important role in blocking reform. They identify several policy reform options, as well as political strategies that can overcome past obstacles to reform. Community-based policy solutions, new coalitions for policy reform, fresh approaches to the policy debate, innovative and consensus-oriented forms of deliberation, and effective use of research-based knowledge can all make positive contributions to Indian policy reform. The analyses and proposals presented in this study will be a valuable resource for policymakers and stakeholders concerned with the politics of agricultural development. |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:resrep:reginabirner&r=cwa |
| By: | Sanders, Daniel J.; Balagtas, Joseph V.; Gruere, Guillaume |
| Abstract: | In the last 30 years, palm oil production has known a ninefold increase, with almost all production growth concentrated in Malaysia and Indonesia. Several public reports have associated the palm oil boom with extensive deforestation, often pointing to the increase in biofuel demand in developed nations as a main driver of this phenomenon. Other demand drivers, especially as related to the food sector, have not been studied as much. In particular, regulations on genetically modified (GM) food in European nations and on trans fats in a number of developed countries have reportedly induced food companies to switch from soybean oil to palm oil and could therefore have contributed to additional demand for palm oil. This article provides a first analysis of the drivers of growth in palm oil production during the 1980–2010 boom, using a price dynamics analysis of the markets for palm oil, soybean oil, and crude oil. Soybean oil is selected as the leading vegetable oil in food markets, and crude oil is taken to represent the energy sector. We estimate two models of the oil price system: a vector auto regression model that treats all three prices as stationary and a vector error correction model that allows co-integration among the three prices. |
| Keywords: | biofuel, price cointegration, palm oil, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1167&r=cwa |
| By: | Romina Boarini; Margherita Comola; Conal Smith; Robert Manchin; Femke de Keulenaer |
| Abstract: | This paper uses data from the Gallup World Poll to explore the determinants of subjective well-being. The paper builds on the existing literature on the determinants of subjective well-being in three areas. First, the paper systematically examines the drivers of measures of affect as well as the determinants of life satisfaction that are more prevalent in the existing literature. Overall, items relating to health status, personal security, and freedom to choose what to do with one’s life appear to have a larger impact on affect balance when compared to life satisfaction, while economic factors such as income and unemployment have a more limited impact. The second part of the paper considers the degree to which there is heterogeneity in the weights assigned by different population sub-groups to the different determinants of subjective well-being. Relatively small differences are found between men and women, but priorities change significantly over the life course. Finally, the paper uses OECD data on the labour market and health policy regimes in different countries to test for the impact of these policy regimes on subjective well-being. Significant results are found for the replacement rate for unemployment assistance, employment protection legislation, and the extent of health co-payments. Although these results are tentative, they suggest that looking for the impact of policy changes on subjective well-being in large cross-country datasets is a promising area for research.<P>Quels sont les facteurs qui influent sur notre qualité de vie ? : Les déterminants du bien-être subjectif dans les pays de l'OCDE - Données extraites de l'enquête Gallup World Poll<BR>Fondé sur des données issues de l’enquête Gallup World Poll, ce rapport analyse les déterminants du bien-être subjectif. Il est en outre étayé par les travaux antérieurs menés sur les facteurs du bien-être subjectif dans trois domaines. Tout d’abord, l’étude passe systématiquement en revue les caractéristiques des mesures relatives aux ressentis, ainsi que les critères qui déterminent la satisfaction à l’égard de la vie, qui sont plus répandus dans les publications existantes. Dans l’ensemble, les facteurs relatifs à l’état de santé, à la sécurité des personnes et à la liberté qu’ont les individus de choisir la vie qu’ils veulent mener semblent peser plus lourd dans la balance entre ressentis négatifs et ressentis positifs que la satisfaction à l’égard de l’existence, tandis que les facteurs économiques, comme le revenu et le chômage, ont une influence plus limitée. La deuxième partie du rapport examine dans quelle mesure l’importance accordée aux différents déterminants du bien-être subjectif varie en fonction des catégories de population. Si les écarts observés entre hommes et femmes sont relativement limités, il ressort que les priorités ne cessent d’évoluer tout au long de la vie. Enfin, le rapport s’appuie sur les données de l’OCDE relatives aux politiques nationales du marché du travail et de la santé pour évaluer l’impact de l’action publique sur le bien-être subjectif. Il semble que le taux de remplacement de l’assistance-chômage, la législation sur la protection de l’emploi et le niveau de participation des assurés sociaux au coût des soins jouent un rôle majeur. S’ils restent indicatifs, ces résultats donnent néanmoins à penser que l’étude de l’impact des réformes sur le bien-être subjectif dans les grandes séries de données internationales constitue un axe de recherche prometteur. |
| Date: | 2012–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:stdaaa:2012/3-en&r=cwa |
| By: | Niklas Potrafke (Munich Graduate School of Economics, Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Germany); Heinrich Ursprung (Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, Germany) |
| Abstract: | We empirically assess the influence of globalization on social institutions that govern female subjugation and gender equality in developing countries. Observing the progress of globalization for almost one hundred developing countries at ten year intervals starting in 1970, we find that economic and social globalization exert a decidedly positive influence on the social institutions that reduce female subjugation and promote gender equality. |
| Keywords: | Globalization, Gender equality, Social institutions, Female subjugationse of development |
| JEL: | O11 O57 |
| Date: | 2012–04–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:knz:dpteco:1207&r=cwa |
| By: | Kaja Bonesmo Fredriksen |
| Abstract: | Poor growth performance over the past decades in Europe has increased concerns for rising income dispersion and social exclusion. European authorities have recently launched the Europe 2020 strategy which aims to improve social inclusion in Europe on top of already existing European regional policies aiming to reduce regional disparities through stimulating growth in areas where incomes are relatively low. While it is most common to confine measures of inequality to national borders, the existence of such union-wide objectives and policies motivates measuring income dispersion among all Europeans in this paper. Towards the end of the 2000s the income distribution in Europe was more unequal than in the average OECD country, albeit notably less so than in the United States. It is the within-country, not the between-country dimension, which appears to be most important. Inequality in Europe has risen quite substantially since the mid 1980s. While the EU enlargement process has contributed to this, it is not the only explanation since inequality has also increased within a “core” of 8 European countries. Large income gains among the 10% top earners appear to be a main driver behind this evolution.<P>L'inégalité des revenus dans l'Union européenne<BR>La faible croissance en Europe au cours des dernières décennies a augmenté les inquiétudes concernant la répartition des revenus et l’exclusion sociale. Les autorités européennes ont récemment lancé la stratégie Europe 2020 qui vise à améliorer l’insertion sociale en Europe en plaçant cet objectif au dessus des politiques régionales européennes déjà existantes afin de réduire les disparités régionales en stimulant la croissance dans les zones où les revenus sont relativement bas. Alors que l’inégalité est, le plus fréquemment, mesurée par pays, le fait de mettre en place des objectifs et des politiques à l’échelle européenne explique pourquoi ce rapport traite de l’inégalité des revenus entre tous les Européens. Vers la fin des années 2000, la distribution des revenus en Europe était plus inégalitaire que la moyenne de la zone de l’OCDE mais beaucoup moins qu’aux États-Unis. Ce sont les inégalités à l’intérieur des pays et non entre pays qui semblent le plus importantes. L’inégalité en Europe a sensiblement augmenté depuis la moitié des années 80. Même si l’élargissement a contribué à cette hausse, ce n’est pas la seule explication puisque l’inégalité a aussi augmenté au sein d’un groupe de 8 pays faisant parti de l’Union sur toute la période considérée. D’importants gains de revenus pour les 10% les mieux rémunérés apparaissent comme étant la raison principale de cette évolution. |
| Keywords: | redistribution, European Union, convergence, income inequality, Gini coefficient, top incomes, redistribution, Union européenne, convergence, inégalité des revenus, hauts revenus, Gini |
| JEL: | C81 D31 D63 H23 |
| Date: | 2012–04–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:952-en&r=cwa |
| By: | Gaowang Wang (Central University of Finance and Economics); Heng-fu Zou (Central University of Finance and Economics) |
| Abstract: | Obstfeld (1994) shows theoretically that international economic integration accelerates economic growth of all countries in the world, which does not match the data very well. By introducing Zou (1994)'s viewpoints of mercantilism into the Obstfeld model, the paper shows that the excessive pursuits for wealth heighthen the demand for financial assets with high return and high risk in the global financial market which distorts the mechanism of financial market promoting economic growth, and hence leads to different growth performances within different countries. Specifically, for different economies, not only do the same technology or preference shocks have different growth effects, but also economic integration has different growth effects. |
| Keywords: | Globalization, Economic Growth, Mercantilism |
| JEL: | C61 G11 F43 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:548&r=cwa |
| By: | Ann Huff Stevens; Douglas L. Miller; Marianne Page; Mateusz Filipski |
| Abstract: | Consider this seeming paradox: when economic times are good, deaths in the United States increase. The reasons for this economic impact on mortality are not well understood, but the negative health effects of over-work, stress, and work-related behavior are often cited as culprits. However, this explanation is not completely persuasive, because other evidence shows that losing a job when the economy sours causes individuals' health to deterioate. If that were the case, it would seem that, during good economic times, mortality would decline. These conflicting theories about the effect of indviduals' work on their own health suggest that the mechanisms driving the unemployment-mortality link are more complex. |
| Date: | 2012–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:issbrf:ib2012-8&r=cwa |
| By: | Ran Abramitzky; Leah Platt Boustan; Katherine Eriksson |
| Abstract: | During the Age of Mass Migration, the US maintained open borders and absorbed 30 million European immigrants. Using cross-sectional data, prior work on this era finds that immigrants held lower-paid occupations than natives upon first arrival but experienced rapid convergence. In newly-assembled panel data following immigrants over time, the initial immigrant earnings penalty disappears almost entirely, and immigrants experience occupational upgrading at the same rate as natives. Cross-sectional patterns are driven by declines over time in arrival cohort quality and the departure of negatively-selected return migrants. We show that these findings vary substantially across sending countries and explore potential mechanisms. |
| JEL: | F22 J61 N31 |
| Date: | 2012–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18011&r=cwa |
| By: | Claudio Dicembrino (Faculty of Economics, University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo (Faculty of Economics, University of Rome "Tor Vergata") |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the recent evolution of the oil price, with the objective to analyze the main drivers that during last fifteen years have led the unstable path and the volatility persistence in the international oil market. We assume that the oil price is composed by two components, deterministic and speculative. The first one can be defined as the certain one, and it is referred to the fundamental component given by supply and demand interaction. Differently, the uncertain one is given by unclear changes in the price structure, and it is assumed to be linked to the speculative activity. Through a structural equation model (SEM) in a linear reduced form we find that the speculation in the oil market measured with the real option methodology can improve the traditional model explaining a consistent part of the oil fluctuations. |
| Keywords: | structural model, oil price, speculation, volatility, option. |
| JEL: | C26 C53 Q41 Q47 |
| Date: | 2012–04–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:229&r=cwa |