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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Jan, Sajjad Ahmad; Chani, Muhammad Irfan; Pervaiz, Zahid; Chaudhary, Amatul R. |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to investigate the relationship between physical infrastructure and economic development of Pakistan. A composite index of physical infrastructure has been constructed through Principal Component Analysis. This has been done by taking into account three different dimensions of infrastructure i.e. transportation infrastructure, energy infrastructure, and telecommunication infrastructure. Johansen Co-integration Technique has been applied to confirm the existence of co-integration among the variables of our interest. The empirical analysis shows that co-integration exists among the variables of economic development, employed labour force, gross private fixed capital formation and physical infrastructure. The variables of employed labour force, gross private fixed capital formation and physical infrastructure have statistically significant and positive effect on economic development of Pakistan. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure; Economic Growth; Poverty; Economic Development; Investment; Labour |
| JEL: | H54 F43 D92 O40 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:37785&r=cwa |
| By: | Gurgul, Henryk; Lach , Łukasz |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the nexus between political instability and economic growth in 10 CEE countries in transition in the period 1990-2009. Our results support the contention that political instability defined as a propensity for government change had a negative impact on growth. On the other hand, there was no causality in the opposite direction. A sensitivity analysis based on the application of a few hundred different variants of the initial econometric model confirmed the abovementioned findings only in the case where major government changes were applied to the definition of political instability. |
| Keywords: | economic growth; political instability; CEE economies |
| JEL: | O40 |
| Date: | 2012–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:37792&r=cwa |
| By: | Ejaz, Khurram; Javid, Attiya Yasmin |
| Abstract: | The objective of the study is to assess and analyze sustainability of overall public debt and sustainability of external debt of Pakistan using the debt dynamic equation for the period 1971-2008. The study has analyzed public debt sustainability through interest rate and growth rate differential and level of primary budget balance while external debt sustainability is assessed through interest rate on debt and growth rate of exports differential and current account balance. The results of the study indicate that primary budget deficit and current account deficit have played major role in accumulation of public debt and external debt of Pakistan respectively. The study concludes that public debt and external debt of Pakistan is sustainable in few years and unsustainable in many unsustainable. |
| Keywords: | Public debt; External Debt; Sustainability; Debt dynamic equation; Primary budget deficit; current account balance |
| JEL: | A1 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:37563&r=cwa |
| By: | Ilham Haouas; Raimundo Soto |
| Abstract: | The UAE is blessed with vast deposits of oil and gas. Contrary to other oil-rich economies, the UAE seems to have escaped from the so-called “oil curse”. We study how the UAE used resource rents to achieve economic development and provide higher welfare for the local population. We identify, nevertheless, symptoms of the resource curse in three areas: very low growth in labor productivity, government policies unable to counteract economic cycles induced by oil-price volatility, and massive overemployment and declining productivity in the public sector. Therefore, we conclude that while the UAE has not been immune to the oil curse, but it has managed to make the benefits outweigh the negative outcomes of oil exporting. We finally study the case of Dubai as an example of how to overcome the dependency on oil exports and diversify the economy by using a combination of market deregulation, support for foreign trade, and efficient provision of infrastructure and institutions for private sector participation. |
| Keywords: | Natural resources, oil curse, economic growth, export diversifications |
| JEL: | Q32 O41 F14 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ioe:doctra:412&r=cwa |
| By: | Bodenstein, Martin; Guerrieri, Luca; Kilian, Lutz |
| Abstract: | The recent volatility in global commodity prices and in the price of oil, in particular, has created renewed interest in the question of how monetary policy makers should respond to oil price fluctuations. In this paper, we discuss why this question is ill-posed and has no general answer. The central message of our analysis is that the best central bank policy response to oil price fluctuations depends on why the price of crude oil has changed. For example, an unexpected oil supply disruption in the Middle East calls for a different policy response than an unexpected increase in Chinese productivity or oil intensity. This means that policy makers need to disentangle the structural shocks that are jointly driving the price of oil and the macroeconomy and tailor their response to the observed mix of shocks. We use a multi-country DSGE model to quantify the appropriate policy responses and to analyze the optimal responses from a welfare point of view. We also reexamine the welfare gains from global monetary policy coordination in a world with trade in oil. |
| Keywords: | endogeneity; global economy; monetary policy; oil price; open economy; policy rule; welfare |
| JEL: | E32 E43 F32 Q43 |
| Date: | 2012–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8928&r=cwa |
| By: | Johnny West |
| Abstract: | Iraq’s oil industry has an opportunity to introduce an oil dividend based on expanding production. The predicted rise in revenues will allow the government to allocate a significant dividend that halves poverty, helps diversify the economy by creating demand at all income levels for goods and services, and stimulates capital formation—all without cutting into the government’s capital spending plans. In this working paper, Johnny West describes how such a dividend program could be structured by, for example, taking advantage of Iraq’s existing rationing system, ubiquitous mobile phone networks, and new biometric ID cards. A dividend, starting at $220 per capita in October 2012 and rising with expanded production, could also cement the affiliation of all citizens to Iraqi territorial integrity, act as a powerful disincentive to secession in oil-producing regions, and create popular pressure among all sections of the population to discourage acts by the ongoing insurgency which disrupt economic reconstruction. Support for an oil dividend policy is growing among some politicians, notably those seeking votes among the Iraqi poor such as the Sadrists and Fadhila party. International support could help the government structure a dividend which functions well and in the public interest. |
| Keywords: | Iraq, cash trasfers, dividend program |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:266&r=cwa |
| By: | Fuest, Clemens (University of Oxford); Peichl, Andreas (IZA) |
| Abstract: | The view is widespread that there are just two options for the future of the Eurozone – either it is complemented by a fiscal union, or it will fall apart. In this paper, we discuss five possible elements of a fiscal union, of which three are in the centre of the current debate on fiscal union in the Eurozone. Second, we argue that the fiscal union will only work if political integration in Europe goes significantly beyond the current state of affairs. Third, we suggest an alternative approach, which places less emphasis on centralised fiscal policy coordination and focuses on financial sector reform, decentralised responsibility for government debt and sovereign debt restructurings in the case of fiscal crises. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Union, EU, EMU, Euro, ESM |
| JEL: | E62 H77 H87 |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izapps:pp39&r=cwa |
| By: | Haleem, Fazli; Javid, Attiya Yasmin |
| Abstract: | This study examines the determinants of dividend policy by Lintner (1956) and Braittan (1966) and their extended versions to examine their relative significance in the Pakistani context. The sample consists of thirty-five firms in the overall manufacturing sector and three sub-sectors: textile, energy and chemicals the period 2007 to 2009. The analysis reveals that Lintner model is better than other models examined in the study and net profit and lag dividends are important determinants of dividend policy in Pakistani manufacturing sector. The depreciation and liquidity has significant impact on the dividend policy when included in the Lintner model while investment demand, interest rate, share price behavior and debt turn out to be insignificant. The results imply that for dividend decisions, past dividends, profits and depreciation matters and Lintner model fits the data well in case of manufacturing sector of Pakistan. |
| Keywords: | Dividend policy; partial adjustment model; Brittain cash flow model; Britain Explicit Depreciation model |
| JEL: | A1 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:37564&r=cwa |
| By: | Kalantzis, Fotis; Sakellaris, Kostis |
| Abstract: | This empirical study assesses the impact of specific regulatory policy measures, adopted in the Greek wholesale electricity market during the period 2004-2011, on the Day-Ahead Market Price. We consider an ARMA-GARCH model extended to include dummies and other exogenous variables that affect market prices, such as RES and Hydro electricity production, as well as load volumes and Brent crude oil prices. In order to analyse the impact of the regulatory reforms on price and volatility dynamics, we include regime dummy variables, reflecting the timeline of these reforms. Based on the results, we discuss the impact of the examined reforms and their significance. |
| Keywords: | Electricity Market; Greek Wholesale Market; Regulatory Reform; Day-Ahead Price; GARCH |
| JEL: | L51 C01 |
| Date: | 2012–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:37794&r=cwa |
| By: | Chan, Tze-Haw; Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a joint investigation of the international parity conditions between China and her 13 major trading partners in the Asia Pacific over globalization era. Several advanced tests of unit root for univariate and panel series are utilized in the analyses. Our findings reveal that first, RIP holds stronger than PPP among APEC-China. Second, both parities tend to hold better as one move to the recent years, attributed not only to the financial liberalization process among APEC economies, but also to the Chinese trade policy and the regional commitment for the ASEAN+3+2+1 cooperation. Third, China and APEC have improved the ability to absorb regional shocks as indicated by the shortened half-life reported over time, especially when the post-Asia crisis era is included. |
| Keywords: | PPP; RIP; Panel Unit Root Tests; Mean Reversion; Half-life; Financial Integration |
| JEL: | G15 C33 F36 |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:37801&r=cwa |
| By: | Lupu, Dan |
| Abstract: | The public sector salaries in general, but especially in the civil administration has been and will be a topical issue, highly controversial, and with a permanent presence in the media. This article presents the developments that took place in wages of Eastern European public servants as a result of the international financial crisis. |
| Keywords: | wages; public sector; private sector |
| JEL: | J31 J38 |
| Date: | 2012–03–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:37720&r=cwa |
| By: | Irina Denisova |
| Abstract: | The paper is a survey of literature and statistical sources on poverty and inequality in Russia in the 1990s and the 2000s. It serves as a background to OECD (2011), the OECD Labour Market and Social Policy Review of the Russian Federation that was released in 2011. We start with an overview of poverty and income inequality estimates available. Poverty and inequality trends are then complemented with poverty incidence analysis based on a nationally representative household survey. Long-term poverty patterns are examined using a panel dataset with survival analysis methods. Poverty prevention and reduction policies are discussed in the conclusion.<BR>Ce document fait le tour des sources statistiques et bibliographiques sur la pauvreté et les inégalités dans la Fédération de Russie dans les années 90 et 2000. Il a servi à l’élaboration de l’Etude publiée en 2011 par l’OCDE intitulée « OECD Reviews of Labour Market and Social Policy : Russian Federation ». Ce document débute par un examen des données disponibles sur la pauvreté et les inégalités de revenus. Les tendances en matière de pauvreté et d’inégalité sont ensuites complétées par des analyses qui s’appuient sur des enquêtes nationales représentatives des ménages. Les motifs de la pauvreté à long terme sont étudiés en utilisant un échantillon de données avec des méthodes d’analyse de survie. Les politiques de prévention et de réduction de la pauvreté sont présentées en conclusion. |
| Keywords: | poverty, inequality, poverty incidence, entry to and exit from poverty, RLMS-HSE, pauvreté, inégalité, incidence de la pauvreté, entrée et sortie de la pauvreté, RLMS-HSE |
| JEL: | I32 |
| Date: | 2012–03–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaab:132-en&r=cwa |
| By: | Khandker, Shahidur R.; Koolwal, Gayatri B.; Haughtonm Jonathan; Jitsuchon, Somchai |
| Abstract: | The crash of global financial markets in 2008 caused a ripple effect on economic demand and growth worldwide. Export-oriented economies were hit particularly hard, and many governments stepped in quickly with broad-ranging stimulus programs to lessen the effects on households of rising unemployment and falling income. To better understand the role that stimulus policy might play in softening the effects of these shocks, this paper examines recent nationally-representative data from Thailand, an export-dependent economy where a large-scale stimulus program was introduced in 2009. Using monthly data spanning 2006-2010, the paper uses sub-province-level community panel data to examine the effects of major components of the stimulus on household consumption, income, borrowing, and debt repaid. To address simultaneity of changes in government spending and household outcomes, the analysis estimates a dynamic panel regression, instrumenting the stimulus effect with second-order lagged outcome variables, and estimating the model using the Generalized Method of Moments. The results suggest that household participation in these programs helped smooth consumption. This increase in monthly consumption was not supported from household receipts from the government stimulus, but more likely through a reallocation of consumption and savings that included greater debt repayment. The paper typically finds stronger effects in urban compared with rural areas. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets,Rural Poverty Reduction,Climate Change Economics,Debt Markets |
| Date: | 2012–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6016&r=cwa |
| By: | Chaudhary, Amatul R.; Chani, Muhammad Irfan; Pervaiz, Zahid |
| Abstract: | Women empowerment has attracted the attention of researchers as an active area of research since 1980s. It can be viewed as an ultimate end as well as a mean to achieve other development goals. The present study is an attempt to investigate how consciousness /sensitization of women about their rights, economic empowerment of women and women’s overall development can be helpful in achieving the goal of women’s empowerment. The study uses data for the period of 1996 to 2009 for Pakistan. Empirical results reveal that consciousness of women about their rights, economic empowerment of women and women’s overall development have positive and significant effect on women’s empowerment as measured by Gender Empowerment Measure (GEM) index. Granger Causality Test confirms the existence of bi-directional causality between women’s overall development and women’s empowerment. A unidirectional causality exists between sensitization of women and women’s empowerment. |
| Keywords: | Women Empowerment; labour force participation; Gender Development; Gender inequality |
| JEL: | D63 C22 J16 J23 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:37784&r=cwa |
| By: | Bejger, Sylwester |
| Abstract: | This article is devoted to the problem of the detection of overt or tacit collusion equilibrium in the context of the choice of the appropriate econometric method, a choice that is determined by the amount of information that the observer possesses. The author addresses this problem in two steps. First, to provide a theoretical background, he uses a collusion marker based on structural disturbances in a price process'; variance. Then, he applies a Markov switching model with switching in variance regimes. The author considers this method adequate and coherent with the problem structure and the research objective, and useful for assessing the functionality of the collusion marker he uses. He uses the model to examine the Indian cement industry in the period 1994-2009 and finds some objective indications of collusion and competition phases. These phases are confirmed by certain historical facts as well as by numerous research articles. -- |
| Keywords: | Explicit and tacit collusion,collusive equilibrium,cartel detection,cement industry,price variance,Markov switching model |
| JEL: | C22 L13 L61 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201218&r=cwa |
| By: | Nicole Votolato Montgomery; Lisa R. Szykman; Julie R. Agnew |
| Abstract: | Workers under age 35 have the lowest 401(k) participation of any age group. Failing to save for retirement at a young age means missing out on compounded investment earnings that can substantially ease the burden of building a nest egg. The reasons young workers save less for retirement range from college loan repayments and low starting salaries to a desire to save for a house. Another reason is deeply rooted in psychology: when an event such as retirement is far from the future, people tend to distance themselves from it and think about it abstractly. In visual terms, it is more difficult to see the details of a photograph when one is far away - just as it is difficult for young adults to perceive old age. It will become more concrete only as they move closer. For young workers, then, retirement security lacks the urgency older workers feel. This brief reflects preliminary results from research positing that young adults' distance to retirement may discourage them from saving, and it tests what types of communication tactics might be most effective in promoting saving. |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:issbrf:ib2012-7&r=cwa |
| By: | Russell Cooper; Guan Gong; Ping Yan |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the employment and productivity implications of new labor regulations in China. These new restrictions are intended to protect workers' employment conditions by, among other things, increasing firing costs and increasing compensation. We estimate a model of costly labor adjustment from data prior to the policy. We use the estimated model to simulate the effects of the policy. We find that increases in severance payments lead to sizable job creation, a significant reduction in labor reallocation and an increase in the exit rate. A policy of credit market liberalization will reduce employment, slightly increase labor reallocation and reduce exit. The estimated elasticity of labor demand is about unity so that an increase in the base wage leads to sizable job losses. |
| JEL: | E24 J08 J23 O38 O53 P2 |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17948&r=cwa |