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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Rainer Schweickert, Inna Melnykovska , Hedwig Plamper |
| Abstract: | Russia and China are assumed to challenge democratization and to promote autocracy. In a first step, we analyze Central Asia as the most-likely case, considering both Russia and China as relevant external actors. We develop a concept for our analysis based on the different strategies of Russia (dominance) and China (doing-business) towards the region and present the results of a qualitative study of the main dimensions of autocracy promotion with respect to regional and bilateral schemes. In a second step, we extend a previous framework (Melnykovska and Schweickert 2011) and provide econometric evidence based on a panel of post-socialist countries. We show that bilateral schems are (still) more relevant for external influences in Central Asia and that (unintentionally) China’s doing-business approach may in fact promote institutional change. Arguably, democratization should not be a precondition for cooperation as in European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) but rather be promoted by sweeping economic cooperation incentives |
| Keywords: | Central Asia, China, Russia, Governance, Regional Integration, Trade, Minorities, Military Threat |
| JEL: | F53 F59 |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kie:kieliw:1763&r=cwa |
| By: | Degryse, Hans; Elahi, Muhammad Ather; Penas, Maria Fabiana |
| Abstract: | Banking systems are fragile not only within one country but also within and across regions. We study the role of regional banking system characteristics for regional banking system fragility. We find that regional banking system fragility reduces when banks in the region jointly hold more liquid assets, are better capitalized, and when regional banking systems are more competitive. For Asia and Latin-America, a greater presence of foreign banks also reduces regional banking fragility. We further investigate the possibility of contagion within and across regions. Within region banking contagion is important in all regions but it is substantially lower in the developed regions compared to emerging market regions. For cross-regional contagion, we find that the contagion effects of Europe and the US on Asia and Latin America are significantly higher compared to the effect of Asia and Latin America among themselves. Finally, the impact of cross-regional contagion is attenuated when the host region has a more liquid and more capitalized banking sector. |
| Keywords: | banking system stability; cross-regional contagion; financial integration |
| JEL: | G15 G20 G29 |
| Date: | 2012–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8858&r=cwa |
| By: | Harun Alp; Fethi Ogunc; Cagri Sarikaya |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calismada Bayesci yontem kullanilarak Turkiye’de çikti acigini temel bilesenlerine ayristiran bir çerçeve sunulmaktadir. Sonuclarimiz, Lehman krizini takip eden surecte Turkiye’de ic ve dis talep arasinda ciddi bir ayrisma yasanirken, ekonomi genelinde asiri bir isinma olmadigini gostermektedir. Bu bulgular, Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi'nin (TCMB) yeni politika cercevesine zemin hazirlayan ve kayda deger bir enflasyon baskisi olmaksizin hizli kredi buyumesi ve artan cari islemler acigi ile tanimlanabilecek iktisadi gorunume iliskin goruslerini desteklemektedir. Bu kosullar altinda salt toplam cikti acigina dayandirilan geleneksel para politikasi yaklasimi finansal istikrar ile uyumlu olmayan bir politika onermesinde bulunabilecektir. Bu baglamda,cikti acigi bilesenlerinin turetilmesi, tutarli politikalarin tasarlanmasinda karar alicilara yardimci olacaktir. [EN] We estimate an output gap measure for Turkey in a Bayesian framework with special reference to its components. Our results suggest that Turkey experienced a notable divergence between domestic and external demand with no sign of overheating for the whole economy in the post-Lehman crisis period. This finding confirms the basis for the new policy framework of the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT), which was characterized by rapid credit expansion and growing current account deficit without significant inflationary pressures. Under these circumstances, conventional monetary policy practice focusing solely on aggregate output gap may suggest policy prescriptions inconsistent with financial stability. In this regard, extracting the components of output gap would help policymakers make a suitable policy design to avoid any contradiction among objectives. |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1207&r=cwa |
| By: | Köksal, Bülent; Orhan, Mehmet |
| Abstract: | This study compares the performance of the widely used risk measure Value-at-Risk (VaR) across a large sample of developed and developing countries. The performance of the VaR is assessed by both unconditional and conditional tests of Kupiec and Christoffersen, respectively, as well as the Quadratic Loss Function. Results indicate that the performance of VaR as a measure of risk is much worse for developed countries than the developing ones during our sample period. One possible reason might be the deeper initial impact of global financial crisis on developed countries than emerging markets. Results also provide evidence of decoupling between emerging and developed countries in terms of market risk during the global financial crisis. |
| Keywords: | Value-at-Risk (VaR); Developed Countries; Emerging Markets; ARCH/GARCH Estimation; Kupiec Test; Christoffersen Test; Quadratic Loss Function |
| JEL: | C32 C51 G32 G01 |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:37523&r=cwa |
| By: | Bakis, Ozan (Galatasaray University Economic Research Center); Karanfil, Fatih (Galatasaray University Economic Research Center); Polat, Sezgin (Galatasaray University Economic Research Center) |
| Abstract: | We use time-series analysis to examine bank behavior with respect to credit supply employing both banking data and other financial variables for the Turkish economy over the 1990 – 2009 period. We provide a vector error-correction (VEC) model to test for multivariate cointegration and Granger causality. More specifically, this paper seeks to fill the gap on how the bank behavior interacts with the financial structure given the conditions of macroeconomic policy. Our findings suggest that Granger causality is present between credit-deposit ratio and maturity of time deposits which implies that depositor decision on maturity changes the composition of balance sheet of banks leading to low credit creation. This result implies that macroeconomic uncertainty and instability lead to a kind of credit contraction with the decrease of deposit maturity. Our results also reveal that economic cycles are credit-driven in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Credit-deposit ratio; deposit maturity; Granger causality |
| JEL: | C32 E50 G21 |
| Date: | 2012–03–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:giamwp:2012_001&r=cwa |
| By: | MANSOUR, Tamer Abdel-Aziz |
| Abstract: | Financial crisis that occurred in August 2008 was unforeseen, sudden, sharp, and had a great impact on the global financial market. Egypt is one of the countries was affected by this financial crisis as a market economy country, and WTO member. in this paper I will try to study the implication of such crisis on the Egyptian economy in the fields of tourism, Suez canal, oil field, and GDP, not only the economy factor were effected, but also the Egyptian market represented in its components such as stock market, employment, housing market and etc…). What were measures taken by Egypt for the crisis intervention?, this what will we conclude from this paper and examine the fiscal stimulus package taken by Egyptian Government. |
| Keywords: | Financial crisis;Suez canal;oil field;GDP;measures;fiscal stimulus;Egyptian Government |
| JEL: | A1 A2 |
| Date: | 2011–12–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:37370&r=cwa |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Vladimir Gligorov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Peter Havlik (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Zdenek Lukas (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Anton Mihailov; Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Leon Podkaminer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Josef Pöschl (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Hermine Vidovic (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | The present economic crisis bears all the familiar hallmarks of the financial, debt-related and structural aspects of current account crises. All these aspects have lasting level effects and recovery can be very protracted. Export-led growth was an important feature of the recovery period 2010-2011, yet significant inter-country differences persisted. A few countries with severe pre-crisis imbalances (Romania, Bulgaria and the Baltic states) enjoyed reasonable export growth over that period, while other structurally weak economies on the European periphery (Western Balkan countries and the Southern EU) fared badly in that respect. The latter group of countries will continue to lag behind also in the forecast period 2012-2014, while some of the Central European economies (Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia) will manage to stay out of the vicious circle of low growth, high interest rates and unsustainable debt. These three countries, as well as the Baltic states, are expected to grow by about 3% in the years to come (still significantly below the trend growth rates before the crisis). The remaining EU new member states as well as the Western Balkan countries will achieve only about half of this growth. Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan will grow by rates of up to 5%. |
| Keywords: | Central and East European new EU member states, Southeast Europe, GIIPS, financial crisis, future EU member states, Balkans, former Soviet Union, Turkey, economic forecasts, employment, foreign trade, competitiveness, debt, deleveraging, exchange rates, flow of funds, inflation, monetary policy |
| JEL: | C33 C50 E20 E29 F34 G01 G18 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52 |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:fpaper:fc:9&r=cwa |
| By: | Youcef Maouchi (CERGAM-CAE, Aix-Marseille Université) |
| Abstract: | While economic analysis of law is used to develop a better understanding of the role and the impact of contract law, and more generally “western law,” there is no such analysis for Islamic law, one of the world?s largest legal systems. The doorstep in any discussion of contract law — given that private contracts are enforced — being the degree of freedom left to contracting parties, an analysis of contractual freedom under Islamic law is relevant and necessary. This article addresses this question from an economic point of view. First, an overview of Islamic contract law and its system of nominate contracts is provided. Second, we survey the debate among Islamic jurists about contractual freedom fostered by this system. Finally, an economic analysis is conducted. |
| Keywords: | Contacts, Law and Economics, Islamic contracts law, Freedom of contract |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgm:wpaper:91&r=cwa |
| By: | Hassler, John; Krusell, Per |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a model that integrates the climate and the global economy---an integrated assessment model---with which different policy scenarios can be analyzed and compared. The model is a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium setup with a continuum of regions. Thus, it is a full stochastic general-equilibrium version of RICE, Nordhaus's pioneering multi-region integrated assessment model. Like RICE, our model features traded fossil fuel but otherwise has no markets across regions---there is no insurance nor any intertemporal trade across them. The extreme form of market incompleteness is not fully realistic but arguably not a decent approximation of reality. Its major advantage is that, along with a set of reasonable assumptions on preferences, technology, and nature, it allows a closed-form model solution. We use the model to assess the welfare consequences of carbon taxes that differ across as well as within oil-consuming and -producing regions. We show that, surprisingly, only taxes on oil producers can improve the climate: taxes on oil consumers have no effect at all. The calibrated model suggests large differences in views on climate policy across regions. |
| Keywords: | climate; dynamic; integrated assessment; regional; stochastic |
| JEL: | H23 O44 Q0 |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8771&r=cwa |
| By: | Eshita Gupta (Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi; Institute of Economic Growth) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the climate sensitivity of electricity demand by examining the impact of apparent temperature on electricity demand in Delhi using daily data on electricity demand for the period 2000-09. The study adopts a semi-parametric variable coefficient model in order to investigate the non-linear time-varying impact of climatic factors on electricity demand... |
| Date: | 2012–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:isipdp:12-02&r=cwa |
| By: | Banerjee, Abhijit; Chattopadhyay, Raghabendra; Duflo, Esther; Keniston, Daniel; Singh, Nina |
| Abstract: | Institutions in developing countries, particularly those inherited from the colonial period, are often thought to be subject to strong inertia. This study presents the results of a unique randomized trial testing whether these institutions can be reformed through incremental administrative change. The police department of the state of Rajasthan, India collaborated with researchers at US and Indian universities to design and implement four interventions to improve police performance and the public’s perception of the police in 162 police stations (covering over one-fifth of the State’s police stations and personnel): (1) placing community observers in police stations; (2) a freeze on transfers of police staff; (3) in-service training to update skills; and (4) weekly duty rotation with a guaranteed day off per week. These reforms were evaluated using data collected through two rounds of surveys including police interviews, decoy visits to police stations, and a large-scale public opinion and crime victimization survey--the first of its kind in India. The results illustrate that two of the reform interventions, the freeze on transfers and the training, improved police effectiveness and public and crime victims’ satisfaction. The decoy visits also led to an improvement in police performance. The other reforms showed no robust effects. This may be due to constraints on local implementation: The three successful interventions did not require the sustained cooperation of the communities or the local authorities (the station heads) and they were robustly implemented throughout the project. In contrast, the two unsuccessful interventions, which required local implementation, were not systematically implemented. |
| Keywords: | community participation; crime; India; institutional reform; police; police reform; randomized trial |
| JEL: | H11 H76 K42 O22 |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8869&r=cwa |
| By: | Zaidi, Syed Irfan Raza Shah; Ghutai, Gul; Zaman, Nadeem Uz |
| Abstract: | An NGO- though not a permissible term- is a nongovernmental organization or an association made for the welfare of society as a charitable trust, non-profit corporation, foundation or other common person who is a part of governmental sector. NGOs have played a considerably important role in the development of countries and 60% developing countries obtain their aid through NGOs. In Balochistan the NGOs have been actively engaged in regional, local, national and international matters with government and business since their beginning. Therefore, over time the NGOs are often said to have shifted the cultural diversity of the province in some ways or the others either directly or indirectly through their operations, struggles and improved understanding of societies. In this study we have discussed the impact of NGOs and their limits in the province which is a critical part and an opportunistic state of Pakistan, Balochistan. |
| Keywords: | shifts in the cultural diversity; NGOs; Balochistan |
| JEL: | I0 |
| Date: | 2012–03–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:37357&r=cwa |
| By: | Gonul Sengul |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes rates of inflow to and outflow from unemployment for Turkey since 2006. The average rate of exiting unemployment (outflow) within a month is 9.4 percent, while the average rate of transiting from employment to unemployment (inflow) is 1.3 percent. Moreover, the analysis of flow rates for different age and education groups show that these rates change significantly across groups. The paper decomposes changes in unemployment into contributions from inflow and outflow rates and finds that the volatility of inflow rates is the main driving force of the change in the unemployment rate in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment,Worker Flows, Job Finding Rate, Separation Rate |
| JEL: | E24 J6 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1210&r=cwa |