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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Irina Sinitsina |
| Abstract: | The global economic crisis has created new challenges for education systems all over the world. The Former Soviet Union countries were confronted with an urgent issue, not necessarily specifically related to the crisis: to formulate and introduce new educational curricula, standards, and delivery models in order to adjust to the challenges imposed by the transition to the post-industrial stage of development. Irina Sinitsina summarised her chapter in the CASE Network Report No. 100 "The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Education Services in Economies of the Former Soviet Union" in this E-brief. Using the available data, she comes to the conclusion that during the crisis, the education system of FSU countries were not dramatically affected by overall budget cuts. |
| Keywords: | Economic crisis, Labor market, social policy and social services, Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia, education, FSU |
| Date: | 2012–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sec:ebrief:1204&r=cwa |
| By: | Dmytro Boyarchuk |
| Abstract: | Azerbaijan’s current fiscal stance is quite strong; however, this stability is completely based on oil-related revenues. In the meantime, the situation with alternative sources of fiscal revenues is uncertain. A large part of fiscal management is built on opacity and an assessment of budget spending efficiency has never been done. It is likely that Azerbaijan will only be able to maintain its fiscal stability through the next ten years or so, i.e. until the end of the active oil-extraction period. In the more distant future, a substantial fiscal correction will be necessary. |
| Keywords: | Institutional reforms, Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia, Azerbaijan |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sec:ebrief:1202&r=cwa |
| By: | Alexander Chubrik; Przemyslaw Wozniak; Gulnar Hajiyeva |
| Abstract: | The paper proposes two econometric models of inflation for Azerbaijan: one based on monthly data and eclectic, another based on quarterly data and takes into account disequilibrium at the money market. Inflation regression based on monthly data showed that consumer prices dynamics is explained by money growth (the more money, the higher the inflation), exchange rate behaviour (appreciation drives disinflation), commodities price dynamics (“imported” inflation) and administrative changes in regulated prices. For the quarterly model, nominal money demand equation (with inflation, real non-oil GDP and nominal interest rate on foreign currency deposits as predictors) and money supply equation were estimated, and error-correction mechanism from money demand equation was included into inflation equation. It is shown that disequilibrium at the money market (supply higher than demand) drives inflation together with money supply growth and nominal exchange rate depreciation and administrative changes in prices. No cost-push variables appeared to be significant in this equation specification. Both models give similar inflation projections, but sudden changes in money demand (2012) lead to significant differences between the projections. It is shown that money is the most important inflation determinant that explains up to 97.8% of CPI growth between 2012 and 2015, and that in order to keep inflation under control the Central Bank of Azerbaijan should link money supply to real non-oil GDP growth. |
| Keywords: | Inflation modelling, Inflation forecasting, Money demand, Money supply, Azerbaijan |
| JEL: | C32 E31 E41 O52 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sec:cnstan:0435&r=cwa |
| By: | Irina Tochitskaya |
| Abstract: | On December 16th, 2011, an 18 year long negotiation process regarding Russia’s WTO membership was finally brought to an end. Undoubtedly, Russia’s WTO accession is an important event both for the global trade system and for the country. With Russia now in the club, the WTO will control over 97 per cent of global trade. |
| Keywords: | Russia, WTO, trade |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sec:ebrief:1201&r=cwa |
| By: | Yann Duval; Chorthip Utoktham (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP)) |
| Abstract: | There is ample evidence that successful implementation of bilateral or regional trade and economic integration initiatives would have a very significant impact on intraregional trade in Asia and the Pacific. However, little is known about the level of intraregional trade costs in the region and to what extent these costs may have decreased over time. This paper introduces new aggregate and sectoral estimates of bilateral trade costs in Asia and the Pacific available in an updated and extended version of the ESCAP Trade Cost Database (Version 2). The new data suggests that (1) most countries and subregions have made improvements in reducing trade costs; (2) Trade costs among Asian countries still often exceed the costs of trade of Asian countries with developed countries outside the region; and (3) tariff costs accounts for only a small portion of comprehensive trade costs – although tariff cuts account for a large share of overall trade cost reduction over the past decade. At the sectoral level, agricultural trade costs are systematically found to exceed manufacturing trade costs, even when tariff costs are excluded. The fact that agricultural trade costs in many developing countries are twice as high as their trade costs in manufactured goods suggest that focusing trade facilitation efforts on that sector may be particularly productive, especially given the importance of this sector for poverty reduction and more inclusive and sustainable development. |
| Keywords: | trade costs, bilateral trade, Asia and the Pacific, sectoral data, trade facilitation, non-tariff measures |
| JEL: | F1 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unt:wpaper:swp511&r=cwa |
| By: | Raza, Syed Ali; Sabir, Muhammad Sarwar; Mehboob, Farhan |
| Abstract: | This study intends to investigate the impact of foreign capital inflow on economic growth of Pakistan during the period of 1985-2010. The empirical analysis is based on multiple regression technique. Results show that foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign portfolio investment (FPI) and remittances are positive and significant relationship with economic growth. While foreign aid shown significant but negative relationship with economic growth. Finding further suggests that foreign direct investment, foreign portfolio investment and remittances enhance the economic growth. And it is recommended that country like Pakistan should enhance the domestic resources to break the vicious circle of foreign aid. |
| Keywords: | Foreign direct investment; foreign portfolio investment; remittances; foreign aid; economic growth; capital inflow |
| JEL: | F35 A11 |
| Date: | 2011–09–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36790&r=cwa |
| By: | Jochem, Patrick; Schleich, Joachim |
| Abstract: | The conceptual part of this paper ties the recently developed Lead Market concept to the international trade theory literature including neoclassical trade theory, new trade theory, neotechnological approaches and systems of innovation concepts. The empirical part explores the factors driving exports in the automotive sector in eight OECD countries between 1991 and 2008, explicitly accounting for possible Lead Market factors. Econometric results suggest that exports in the automotive sector are positively related to the general strength of a country in terms of exports, to higher GDP per capita and to a lower labour cost share in the automotive sector. However, domestic market size and R&D in the automotive sector do not exhibit statistically significant effects on exports. -- |
| Keywords: | lead markets,international trade,export potential,automotive industry |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s32012&r=cwa |
| By: | Jean Fouré; Agnès Bénassy-Quéré; Lionel Fontagné |
| Keywords: | GDP projections, long run, global economy |
| JEL: | E23 E27 F02 F47 A A A |
| Date: | 2012–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-03&r=cwa |
| By: | Dean Baker |
| Abstract: | Debates over economic policy tend to be enormously confused. It is often the case that even high-level officials and well-known economists seem ignorant of basic accounting identities. This leads them to make claims that literally do not add up. This seems to be especially common in the case of debates on trade policy. This paper is intended to clarify some of the key issues. The first part is a simple accounting exercise showing that a large trade deficit implies that a country must either have a large budget deficit, negative private savings, or some combination of the two. Since both large budget deficits and negative private savings are generally viewed as undesirable, this means that a lower trade deficit should be a top policy priority. Furthermore, as a practical matter, a lower-valued dollar is the only plausible mechanism for getting the trade deficit closer to balanced. The second section shows the implications of a lower trade deficit for the economy in terms of the sectors that will expand. While some analysts have implied that in the future the United States will no longer be engaged in manufacturing, this is not a plausible economic scenario. If the United States will continue to consume manufactured goods then it will have to produce the bulk of these goods itself. There is no sector of the economy where exports can reasonably be expected to expand enough to pay for the country’s consumption of manufactured goods. The final section discusses mechanisms for lowering the value of the dollar. In public debates, the value of the dollar is often treated as being beyond the control of the U.S. government. This is not true. The government certainly has the ability to influence the value of the dollar; however it may be necessary to sacrifice other policy goals to achieve a desired exchange rate for the dollar. |
| Keywords: | trade, trade deficit, budget, budget deficit, national accounting, dollar, currency |
| JEL: | F F1 F10 F13 H H6 H62 E E5 |
| Date: | 2012–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:epo:papers:2012-04&r=cwa |
| By: | Fang, Ying (BOFIT); Huang, Shicheng (BOFIT); Niu, Linlin (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | We employ Bayesian method to estimate a time-varying coefficient version of the de facto currency basket model of Frankel and Wei (2007) for the RMB of China, using daily data from February 2005 to July 2011. We estimate jointly the implicit time-varying weights of all 11 currencies in the reference basket announced by the Chinese government. We find the dollar weight has been reduced and sometimes significantly smaller than one, but there is no evidence of systematic operation of a currency basket with discernable pattern of significant weights on other currencies. During specific periods, the reduced dollar weight has not been switched to other major international currencies, but to some East Asian currencies, which is hard to explain by trade importance to or trade competition with China. We examine currency baskets of these East Asian Economies, including major international currencies and the RMB in their baskets. We find an evident tendency of Malaysia and Singapore to increase the weights of RMB in their own currency baskets, and a steadily and significantly positive weight of RMB in the basket of Thailand. These evidences suggest that, the positive weights of some East Asian currencies in RMB currency basket during specific periods largely reflect the fact that these East Asia economies have been systematically placing greater weights on RMB under the new regime of RMB exchange rate. |
| Keywords: | RMB currency basket; time-varying regressions; East Asia; China; US |
| JEL: | C11 F31 F41 |
| Date: | 2012–02–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2012_002&r=cwa |
| By: | Coskun, Yener |
| Abstract: | Turkey is well behind the many countries according to socio-economic development criteria. Activities aim to make Istanbul a financial center seem paradoxical due to less developed and risky characteristics of national economy and financial system. It seems that these activities have both economic and political rationales. Economic rationale of the Istanbul Financial Center (IFC) project suggests that Turkish economy has transformed to a safe harbor. Political rationale of this project may imply that evolving economy politics of post 9/11 environment may create economic advantages for Turkey. It has observed that the tool of regulation is of central role for the idea of the development of a financial center in Istanbul. In this paper, by using literature and data analysis, we examine the chance of the success of the regulatory/bureaucratic approach for IFC project. We conclude that IFC project has weak internal dynamics and it occurred due to both its political attractiveness and also cyclical local/global economic/political conditions. But, it is not realistic to expect strong positive outcomes from the IFC project, if the project would focus only regulatory/bureaucratic approach. |
| Keywords: | Istanbul; financial center; London; Z/Yen; governance; Turkey;9/11 |
| JEL: | B10 G15 G38 E20 |
| Date: | 2011–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36847&r=cwa |
| By: | Gregg Huff (Pembroke College, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 1DW, UK) |
| Abstract: | Between the 1870s and World War II, falls in world shipping costs and Western industrialisation gave rise to export-led Southeast Asian growth and specialization in a narrow range of primary commodity exports. A linked development was the emergence of a few dominant Southeast Asian urban centres, typically primate and always ports. Drawing on historical census data, this paper uses rank-size distributions and transition matrices to investigate the influence of commodity specialisation and exports on urban systems development in the region. It is argued that different commodities produced different spread effects, resulting in variation in degrees of urban concentration in the region. However, geography, path dependence and infrastructure also shaped urban systems development. The main cities that emerged during this period became the ‘gateways’ that connected frontier Southeast Asia to the global economy. |
| Keywords: | urbanisation; gateway cities; agglomeration effects; export-led growth; staple exports; urban systems; rank-size distributions; transition matrices |
| JEL: | N15 N95 R11 |
| Date: | 2012–02–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nuf:esohwp:_096&r=cwa |
| By: | Ceyhun Elgin; Tolga Umut Kuzubas |
| Date: | 2012–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bou:wpaper:2012/03&r=cwa |
| By: | Khalid Sekkat |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the evolution and determinants of manufactured exports and FDI in MED-11 countries over the period 1985-2009 as well as the prospects of their evolution under different scenarios pertaining to the evolution of the determinants. The econometric analysis confirmed the role of exchange rate depreciation, the openness of the economy and the quality of institution and infrastructure in fostering manufactured exports and FDI inflows in the Region. The prospects’ assessment suggested that a scenario of deeper integration with the EU entails superior performance regarding manufactured exports and FDI than status quo or less integration with the EU but greater regional integration. |
| Keywords: | Manufactured Exports, FDI, Institutions, MENA |
| JEL: | F15 F21 O43 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sec:cnstan:0432&r=cwa |
| By: | Andrei Shleifer |
| Abstract: | The 20th anniversary of the beginning of economic reforms in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union provides a good opportunity to comment on the lessons of transition says Andrei Shleifer, a Professor of Economics at Harvard University. He made a top seven list, which might be useful to future reformers. Some of the issues are relevant not only for communist countries; the problems of heavily statist economies are similar. |
| Keywords: | Post-communist transition and development issues, Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia, economic reforms |
| Date: | 2012–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sec:ebrief:1203&r=cwa |
| By: | Roman Mogilevsky |
| Abstract: | The financial crisis strongly affected the countries of the former Soviet Union1 (FSU) in 2008-2009. All of the countries experienced either a recession or a considerable slowdown in growth. Under such conditions, public expenditures on health were at risk of being cut. This brief explores whether or not this actually happened and why or why not. |
| Keywords: | Global Financial Crisis, economy, Public Health Expenditures, Former Soviet Union |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sec:ebrief:1109&r=cwa |
| By: | Neher, Frank |
| Abstract: | Gender, income, education and self-employment are robust predictors for individual support for redistribution in the OECD. In addition, considerations of social status, the fairness of the allocation mechanism, perceived moral worth of the poor and individual autonomy are important. The results for the OECD are compared to those for a large sample of non-OECD countries which also include less developed economies. Neither gender, nor self-employment, nor fairness considerations exhibit a robust association with preferences for redistribution. However, education, income, individual autonomy and moral worth of the poor remain important determinants. On average, preferences for redistribution indicate that within the OECD, there is no desire to change redistributive policies. In contrast, in the sample of non-OECD countries, on average there is a desire to redistribute less. -- |
| Keywords: | preferences for redistribution,social rivalry effect,social identity,survey data,World Values Survey |
| JEL: | D0 H3 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:20122&r=cwa |
| By: | OECD |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaaf:1-en&r=cwa |
| By: | Lombardo, Vincenzo |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that individuals concerns for relative position contribute to the emergence of development traps. It demonstrates that changes in the mean and the distribution of income qualitatively modify individual’s reference group by affecting the magnitude of the reference standard. Over time, this effect influences the dynamical transition of within dynasties incomes and drives the emergence of development traps. In particular, an increase in mean income and a reduction of inequality cause an increase in the reference standard, inducing, in the long-run, the transition from a Solovian-type stage to a development traps regime as agents need to sacrifice relatively more resources in order to keep up with the reference group. |
| Keywords: | Social inclusion; keeping up with the Joneses; development traps; unified growth theory |
| JEL: | D31 O15 D91 O40 |
| Date: | 2012–02–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36766&r=cwa |
| By: | Ciaian, Pavel,; Kancs, d’Artis; Swinnen, Jo; Van Herck, Kristine; Vranken, Liesbet |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the main institutional factors affecting the rental and sales markets for agricultural land. Particular attention is paid to the effects of the common agricultural policy on land markets, and more specifically the underlying mechanism through which agricultural subsidies are capitalised into land values and farmland rents. This paper also provides a broad overview of the empirical studies that estimate the impact of agricultural support policies on land rents and land prices. Various other fundamental factors that affect agricultural land markets are discussed, such as land market institutions and regulations, transaction costs, credit market constraints and levels of profitability, the legal means of contract enforcement and land use alternatives. |
| Date: | 2012–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eps:fmwppr:118&r=cwa |