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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Kroeger, Antje (DIW Berlin); Anderson, Kathryn H. (Vanderbilt University) |
| Abstract: | The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the largest recipients of international remittances in the world; from a Balance of Payments measure of remittances, it ranked tenth in the world in 2008 in the ratio of remittances to GDP, a rapid increase from 30th place in 2004. Remittances can be used to maintain the household's standard of living by providing income to families with unemployed and underemployed adult members. Remittances can also be used to promote investment not only in businesses and communities but also in people. In this paper, we examine the role that remittances have played in the Kyrgyz Republic in promoting investments in children. Based on the capabilities approach to well-being initiated by Sen (2010), we look at the impact of remittances and domestic transfer payments primarily from internal migration on children's education and health. Our outcomes include enrollment in school and preschool, expenditures, stunting and wasting of preschool children, and health habits of older children. We use unique panel data from the Kyrgyz Republic for 2005-2008 and thus control for some of the biases inherent in cross-sectional studies of remittances and family outcomes. We find that overall remittances and domestic transfers have not promoted investments in the human capital of children. Specifically, preschool enrollments were higher in the urban north but secondary school enrollments were lower in other regions in remittance receiving households; expenditures were also negatively affected in the south and the mountain areas. These negative enrollment results were larger for girls than for boys. We also found evidence of stunting and wasting among young children and worse health habits among boys in remittance or transfer receiving households. In the long run, Kyrgyzstan needs human capital development for growth; our results suggest that remittances are not providing the boost needed in human capital to promote development in the future. |
| Keywords: | children's education and health, remittances, Central Asia |
| JEL: | C23 F22 I21 R23 |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6293&r=cwa |
| By: | Aldashev, Alisher (Kazakh-British Technical University of Almaty); Dietz, Barbara (Institute for Eastern European Studies, Regensburg) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we analyze economic and spatial determinants of interregional migration in Kazakhstan using quarterly panel data on region to region migration in 2008-2010. In line with traditional economic theory we find that migration is determined by economic factors, first of all income: People are more likely to leave regions where incomes are low and more likely to move to regions with a higher income level. As predicted by gravity arguments, mobility is larger between more populated regions. Furthermore, distance has a strong negative impact on migration, indicating high migration related costs and risks. Assuming that high migration costs are caused by poor infrastructure, investments in public and social infrastructure should facilitate regional income convergence in Kazakhstan and improve living standards in depressed regions. |
| Keywords: | interregional migration, Kazakhstan, gravity model |
| JEL: | J61 P36 R23 |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6289&r=cwa |
| By: | Friesen, Julia; Baten, Jörg; Prayon, Valeria |
| Abstract: | This paper traces the human capital development of 14 Asian countries for the period of 1900-60, using the age-heaping method. We place special emphasis on the gender gap in numeracy and its determinants. In particular, we test the validity of a U-hypothesis of gender equality, implying that gender equality in numeracy declines at initial stages of development and increases again with higher numeracy levels. The U-shaped pattern is strongly confirmed by our data. -- |
| Keywords: | human capital,age-heaping,education,gender inequality,numeracy,development,asia |
| JEL: | I21 N35 O15 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tuewef:29&r=cwa |
| By: | Acharya, Amitav (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that the collective action in Asia by its regional organizations has historically suffered from a “capability–legitimacy gap”: a disjuncture between the capability (in terms of material resources) of major Asian powers to lead regional cooperation on the one hand and their political legitimacy and will as regional leaders on the other. Successful collective action requires leadership with both capability (as suggested by rationalist theories) and legitimacy (as suggested by constructivist approaches). A central point of the paper is that the putative or aspiring leaders of Asian regionalism throughout the post-war period never had both. |
| Keywords: | asian regionalism; regional cooperation; asian regional cooperation |
| JEL: | F50 F51 F53 F54 F55 F59 |
| Date: | 2012–02–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0344&r=cwa |
| By: | Lerman, zvi |
| Abstract: | The rural sector in nearly all the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) has undergone a shift from predominantly collective to more individualized agriculture. At the same time, most of the land in the region has shifted from state to private ownership. These two shifts â a shift in tenure and a shift in ownership â were part of the transition from a centrally planned economy to a more marketoriented economy that began around 1990 in the huge post-Soviet space stretching from Prague to Vladivostok. The transition reforms in the region were unprecedented in their scope and pace. Some 150 million hectares of agricultural land transferred ownership in these countries in just one decade of reform (1990-2000), compared with 100 million hectares in Mexico during 75 years (1917-1992) and 11 million hectares in Brazil during 30 years (1964- 1994) (Deininger 2003). The basis of this shift from collective to individual agriculture lay in two interrelated aspects of agricultural policy reform: land reform, which concerns issues of land use rights and land ownership; and farm reform, which deals with issues of restructuring of farms into individual land holdings. Land reform, together with farm restructuring, set an agenda for the transformation of socialist farms into hopefully a more efficient farm structure with a clear market orientation |
| Keywords: | Land reform, farm performance, Europe, Asia, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:huaedp:120260&r=cwa |
| By: | Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano; Cioffi, Antonio |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates the effects of the entry price scheme for fresh fruit and vegetables. The analysis is conducted on the European prices of tomatoes, lemons and apples for some of the main competing countries on the European domestic markets: Morocco, Argentina, Turkey and China. The econometric analysis is based on testing and estimating a switching vector autoregressive model with endogenous threshold entry price level. The model shows the isolation effects and the accumulation of Standard Import Values above the trigger entry price. This paper contributes to clarify the role played by the Entry Price System in avoiding or deterring low priced imports from main European partner Countries. |
| Keywords: | Trade policy; Non-tariff barrier; Entry price system; Fruits and vegetables; TVAR |
| JEL: | F13 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2012–01–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36431&r=cwa |
| By: | Dobler, Constanze; Hagemann, Harald |
| Abstract: | The paper emphasizes the transition in Russia and the role institutions played before and during the process. In Russia, a big bang approach was applied. That is to say, transition was conducted all of a sudden, omitting important underlying reforms. This practice should function as a shock therapy. Hence, the approach should leave no other chance than an abrupt adaption to the new free-market rules. These rules would then lead to fast economic growth and development, as they did in other places. However, since Russian GDP per capita and thereby living standards deteriorated dramatically in the years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the plan did not work. At any rate, since then Russian economic indicators recovered and partly achieved their pre-1991 levels at the end of the last decade. The paper depicts Russia's reform efforts and the subsequent developments. The close ties among the political elite, the banking sector and the old nomenklatura are demonstrated. The patrimonial system that persisted for centuries is still observable at the state level. At any rate, Russia can neither evade its historical and institutional development path nor its societal structures that are based on networks and nepotism. Russia's systemic lack of the rule of law and therewith of secure property, the character of the Russian political system with the patriarch as the head of state and the resulting necessity of corruption and bribes inhibit the realization of its full growth potential. -- |
| Keywords: | country studies,economic systems,formerly centrally planned economies,growth,institutions,transition economies |
| JEL: | N14 N24 N44 O43 O52 P20 P30 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hohpro:342011&r=cwa |
| By: | Chen, Shiu-Sheng; Hsu, Kai-Wei |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether higher oil price volatility causes a reversal in globalization. Using a large annual panel data set covering 84 countries all over the world from 1984 to 2008, we investigate the impacts of oil price fluctuations on international trade, namely exports and imports. We present strong and robust evidence that international trade flows will be lower when oil prices fluctuate significantly. We therefore conclude that oil price volatility hurts globalization. |
| Keywords: | oil price shocks; oil price volatility; international trade; reverse globalization |
| JEL: | F40 Q40 |
| Date: | 2012–01–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36182&r=cwa |
| By: | Christiane Baumeister; Gert Peersman |
| Abstract: | We use vector autoregressions with drifting coefficients and stochastic volatility to investigate how the dynamic effects of oil supply shocks on the U.S. economy have changed over time. We find a substantial decline in the short-run price elasticity of oil demand since the mid-eighties. This finding helps explain why an oil production shortfall of the same magnitude is associated with a stronger response of oil prices and more severe macroeconomic consequences over time, while an oil price increase of the same magnitude is associated with a smaller decline in oil production and smaller losses in U.S. output in more recent years. We also show that oil supply shocks more recently account for a smaller fraction of the variability of the real price of oil, implying a greater role for oil demand shocks. Notwithstanding this time variation, the overall cumulative effect of oil supply disruptions on the U.S. economy has been modest. Oil supply shocks contributed to some extent to the 1991 recession and slowed the economic boom of 1999-2000, but they do not explain other U.S. recessions nor do they help explain the "Great Inflation" of the 1970s and early 1980s. |
| Keywords: | Econometric and statistical methods; International topics |
| JEL: | E31 E32 Q43 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:12-2&r=cwa |
| By: | Christiane Baumeister; Lutz Kilian |
| Abstract: | Recently, there has been increased interest in real-time forecasts of the real price of crude oil. Standard oil price forecasts based on reduced-form regressions or based on oil futures prices do not allow consumers of forecasts to explore how much the forecast would change relative to the baseline forecast under alternative scenarios about future oil demand and oil supply conditions. Such scenario analysis is of central importance for end-users of oil price forecasts interested in evaluating the risks underlying these forecasts. We show how policy-relevant forecast scenarios can be constructed from recently proposed structural vector autoregressive models of the global oil market and how changes in the probability weights attached to these scenarios affect the upside and downside risks embodied in the baseline real-time oil price forecast. Such risk analysis helps forecast users understand what assumptions are driving the forecast. An application to real-time data for December 2010 illustrates the use of these tools in conjunction with reduced-form vector autoregressive forecasts of the real price of oil, the superior realtime forecast accuracy of which has recently been established. |
| Keywords: | Econometric and statistical methods; International topics |
| JEL: | Q43 C53 E32 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:12-1&r=cwa |
| By: | Turhan, Ibrahim M.; Kilinc, Zubeyir |
| Abstract: | Turkey was not affected by the financial crisis as much as the advanced economies and managed to rapidly exit the turmoil. The reasons behind the strong response and quick recovery of the Turkish economy were its low country risk and low currency risk premiums. This study shows the foundations of these low risk premiums and compares some measures of these risks of the Turkish economy with peer countries. Second, this paper demonstrates that all of Turkey’s economic sectors were very strong before the crisis and sustained this strength during the course of the crisis. Finally, it discusses the policies that have already been taken and planned to be taken by Turkey’s economic authorities. The government seems to be very determined in keeping fiscal discipline as tight as necessary while not being excessive |
| Keywords: | financial crises; global economic crisis; Turkey; economic policies; financial markets |
| JEL: | E66 E58 G28 G01 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:31214&r=cwa |
| By: | Torfinn Harding and Frederick van der Ploeg (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | Official forecasts for oil revenues and the burden of pensioners are used to estimate forward-looking fiscal policy rules for Norway and compared with permanent-income and bird-in-hand rules. The results suggest that fiscal reactions have been partial forward-looking with respect to the rising pension bill, but backward-looking with respect to oil and gas revenues. Solvency of the government finances might be an issue with the fiscal rules estimated from historical data. Simulation suggests that declining oil and gas revenue and the costs of a rapidly graying population will substantially deteriorate the net government asset position by 2060 unless fiscal policy becomes more prudent or current pension and fiscal reforms are successful. |
| Keywords: | oil windfalls; official forecasts; forward-looking fiscal policy rules; permanent income hypothesis; graying population; debt sustainability |
| JEL: | H20 H63 Q33 |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:676&r=cwa |
| By: | Kutan, Ali; Ozsoz, Emre; Rengifo, Erick |
| Abstract: | On June 16 2009, in what authorities called ``a surprise development'' the Turkish Government removed a provision from its existing laws that had allowed Turkish residents to borrow in foreign currency from banks operating in Turkey. The development ended a long era of foreign currency lending in Turkey at least in the sense of consumer loans. This paper studies the determinants and consequences of foreign currency lending for banks in Turkey in the run-up to this significant policy change. Our analysis uses detailed foreign and Turkish currency composition bank data for 21 commercial banks in Turkey between 2002 and 2010. We evaluate drivers of saving and lending in foreign currency(FX) in Turkey along with consequences for the banking system in particular and for the economy in general. We highlight possible risks to the Turkish banking system as a result of system's heavy exposure to both channels. In doing so, we show that the policy change was not necessarily a surprise but a cautionary step in the right direction to help keep Turkish banking system stable. |
| Keywords: | Dollarization; bank performance; bank profitability; Turkish economy |
| JEL: | O24 G28 F31 G21 |
| Date: | 2012–01–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36214&r=cwa |
| By: | de Luna-Martinez, Jose; Vicente, Carlos Leonardo |
| Abstract: | Historically, development banks have been an important instrument of governments to promote economic growth by providing credit and a wide range of advisory and capacity building programs to households, small and medium enterprises, and even large private corporations, whose financial needs are not sufficiently served by private commercial banks or local capital markets. During the current financial crisis, most development banks in Latin America, followed by Asia, Africa, and Europe, have assumed a countercyclical role by scaling up their lending operations exactly when private banks experienced temporary difficulties in granting credit to the private sector. Despite the importance of development banks during crisis and non-crisis periods, little is known about them. This survey examines how development banks operate, what their policy mandates are, what financial services they offer, which type of clients they target, how they are regulated and supervised, what business models they have adopted, what governance framework they have, and what challenges they face. It also examines the countercyclical role played by development banks during the recent financial crisis. This survey is based on new data that have been collected from 90 national development banks in 61 countries. |
| Keywords: | Banks&Banking Reform,Access to Finance,Debt Markets,Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress,Emerging Markets |
| Date: | 2012–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5969&r=cwa |
| By: | Soylu, Ali; Durmaz, Nazif |
| Abstract: | Islamic banking is consistent with Islamic law and guided by Islamic economics. They are prohibited from charging or paying interest, and can operate only on the basis of the profit-sharing arrangements. Islamic banking has been gaining momentum on a global scale for the last 30 years. It is estimated that the assets of Islamic banks in Turkey will exceed US$25 billion in the next decade and will make up 10% of the total banking system. Therefore, this study compares Islamic banks with interest-based banks to measure their profitability. It also investigates how Islamic financing techniques are used by Islamic Banks. |
| Keywords: | Turkish banks; interest-based banking; interest-free banking; Islamic banking |
| JEL: | E43 G21 |
| Date: | 2012–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36376&r=cwa |
| By: | Esiyok, Bulent |
| Abstract: | This study examines the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) using a panel of bilateral outward FDI stocks of 19 OECD countries in Turkey between 1982 and 2007. Employing a knowledge-capital model, this study finds that joint national incomes, per capita difference, investment liberalisation and the cost of exporting to Turkey have significant effects on FDI in Turkey. In addition, the prospect of European Union membership, government stability, infrastructure, bilateral exchange rate, exchange rate volatility and openness to trade play an important role in determining the amount of FDI in Turkey. Finally, this study finds that high relative unit labour costs and corruption provide stimuli to FDI. |
| Keywords: | Foreign direct investment; knowledge-capital framework; EU membership; Turkey |
| JEL: | F23 F21 C33 |
| Date: | 2011–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36568&r=cwa |
| By: | Franklin Allen; Jun “QJ” Qian; Chenying Zhang; Mengxin Zhao |
| Abstract: | We provide a comprehensive review of China’s financial system, and explore directions of future development. First, the financial system has been dominated by a large banking sector. In recent years banks have made considerable progress in reducing the amount of non-performing loans and improving their efficiency. Second, the role of the stock market in allocating resources in the economy has been limited and ineffective. We discuss issues related to the further development of China’s stock market and other financial markets. Third, the most successful part of the financial system, in terms of supporting the growth of the overall economy, is a non-standard sector that consists of alternative financing channels, governance mechanisms, and institutions. The co-existence of this sector with banks and markets can continue to support the growth of the Hybrid Sector (non-state, non-listed firms). Finally, among the policies that will help to sustain stable economic growth in China are those that reduce the likelihood of damaging financial crises, including a banking sector crisis, a real estate or stock market crash, and a “twin crisis” in the currency market and banking sector. |
| JEL: | J2 K0 O5 |
| Date: | 2012–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17828&r=cwa |
| By: | Subhash Ray (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | Although dominated by public sector banks, India already had a significant presence of private domestic banks and foreign banks. What the banking reforms have done is to create a more level playing field where banks of different ownership types compete within a new set of broad (and far more relaxed) regulations. Data on the performance of the three different categories of banks over the past two decades offer an opportunity to assess to what extent the regulatory changes have improved the productive efficiency of the banking sector in India. Apart from analyzing the standard descriptive measures of performance, this paper uses the nonparametric approach of Data Envelopment Analysis to measure total factor productivity growth and its components to assess the impact of liberalization on different ownership categories of banks in India. The broad conclusion is that it is possible to promote financial soundness by introducing proper prudential norms and to improve operational efficiency without wholesale privatization by allowing competition between public, private and foreign banks. This can be a valuable lesson for other developing countries. JEL Classification: G21, C61 Key words: Banking Reforms, Data Envelopment Analysis, Efficiency Analysis |
| Date: | 2011–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2011-27&r=cwa |
| By: | Brown, Martin; de Haas, Ralph |
| Abstract: | Based on survey data from 193 banks in 20 countries we provide the first bank-level analysis of the relationship between bank ownership, bank funding and foreign currency (FX) lending across emerging Europe. Our results contradict the widespread view that foreign banks have been driving FX lending to retail clients as a result of easier access to foreign wholesale funding. Our cross-sectional analysis shows that foreign banks do lend more in FX to corporate clients but not to households. Moreover, we find no evidence that wholesale funding had a strong causal effect on FX lending for either foreign or domestic banks. Panel estimations show that the foreign acquisition of a domestic bank does lead to faster growth in FX lending to households. However, this is driven by faster growth in household lending in general not by a shift towards FX lending. |
| Keywords: | Foreign banks; FX lending; financial integration; Emerging Europe |
| JEL: | F15 F36 G21 |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36323&r=cwa |
| By: | Giuseppe Campesi |
| Abstract: | The so-called Arab Spring has thrown out of kilter the precarious balance on which the Euro-Mediterranean border-control regime has been built over the years, illustrating the need to set this regime on a new foundation. The breaking point in the crisis came when the flow of migrants landing on Italian shores in Lampedusa took a spike at the beginning of this year. I analyze how the Italian government manufactured the Lampedusa crisis by matching a discursive rhetoric to government strategy, and I highlight how the sovereign prerogative to define emergency was questioned at both a supranational and a subnational level. I also discuss the main assumption behind securitization theory, exploring the complex web of political and institutional relationships involved in the securitization process and illustrating the ambiguity of the security language deployed by the main securitizing actors. Finally, I look at the possible outcomes of the crisis by looking at the interests involved when it comes to reconfiguring the power to define and govern emergency within the framework of the European border-control regime. |
| Date: | 2011–11–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erp:euirsc:p0299&r=cwa |
| By: | Manuela Trochke (Osteuropa-Institut, Regensburg) |
| Abstract: | While most transition countries suffered substantially from the world financial crisis of 2008 and still cope with its consequences, Uzbekistan has stayed almost untouched and shows constant economic growth since 2001. Neither macroeconomic foundations nor available institutional indicators provide an explanation for the sustained “Uzbek Growth Puzzle” (Zettelmeyer, 1999). This paper argues that social capital plays a major role in this puzzle. I examine how social capital has contributed to (1) the ease of transition, (2) the development of effective markets and (3) the development of an effective government. In view of the empirical results from other countries, I analyze the Uzbek case with the help of stylized facts for Uzbek social capital and the data derived from the AsiaBarometer surveys for 2003 and 2005. |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ost:wpaper:310&r=cwa |