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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Emmanuel S. de Dios (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Geoffrey M. Ducanes (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the extent to which the investment slowdown in many Asian countries since the Asian Financial Crisis is attributable to changes in governance institutions. In the process we test the more general hypothesis that different aspects of governance will become relevant constraints to investment and growth at differing levels of countries' development. This hypothesis is validated and explains a standing paradox that finds certain governance aspects--notably voice and accountability and control of corruption--do not apparently figure as explanations in the average growth record. We show that in fact they do, though only at certain levels of development. |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:201107&r=cwa |
| By: | Hamanaka, Shintaro (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | Is intraregional trade in Asia really integrating? It is not easy to answer this ostensibly simple question. There are two ways to assess the level of trade integration: de facto integration and de jure integration. With respect to de facto integration (actual level of interdependence in terms of trade flows), the answer depends on which Asian countries are being considered and which indicator is being using to measure trade interdependence. This paper compares the trade interdependence of different sets of Asian countries using various indices. With respect to de jure integration (the signing of free trade agreements [FTAs]), the number of signed FTAs in Asia is growing but the relation between trade interdependence and the signing of FTAs has not been sufficiently studied. The second half of this paper addresses whether de jure trade integration is ultimately brought about by high-level or low-level de facto trade integration. |
| Keywords: | FTAs; trade interdependence; scope of agreements |
| JEL: | F15 F53 F55 F59 |
| Date: | 2012–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbrei:0091&r=cwa |
| By: | O. DE JONGHE; M. DISLI; K. SCHOORS |
| Abstract: | Does better corporate governance unambiguously improve the risk/return efficiency of banks? Or does either a re-orientation of banks' revenue mix towards more opaque products, an economic downturn, or tighter supervision create off-setting or reinforcing effects? The authors relate bank efficiency to shortfalls from a stochastic risk/return frontier. They analyze how internal governance mechanisms (CEO duality, board experience, political connections, and education profile) and external governance mechanisms (discipline exerted by shareholders, depositors, or skilled employees) determine efficiency in a sample of Turkish banks. The 2000 financial crisis was a wakeup call for bank efficiency and corporate governance. As a result, better corporate governance mechanisms have been able to improve risk/return efficiency when the economic, regulatory, and supervisory environments are more stable and bank products are more complex. |
| Keywords: | corporate governance, bank risk, noninterest income, crisis, frontier |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:11/729&r=cwa |
| By: | Harun Alp; Yusuf Soner Baskaya; Mustafa Kilinc; Canan Yuksel |
| Abstract: | This study documents the stylized facts about the business cycles in Turkey using quarterly data between 1987 and 2009. In particular, we document the business cycle turning points and average duration of cycles for Turkey, as well as the optimal smoothing parameter for Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter estimated in line with our estimate of average business cycle duration for 1987-2009 period, 20 quarters, which is shorter compared to developed countries, and comparable to other developing countries. For filtering procedure, we use this estimated parameter, in addition to 1600, in HP filter and compare our findings. We find that business cycle relationships between macroeconomic variables in Turkey are mostly in accordance with the patterns observed for developing countries, which significantly differ from developed countries’ business cycle facts. In particular, the real side of the economy is characterized by high volatility of consumption and a countercyclical pattern for net exports. Other important findings are that financial variables such as credit or sovereign spreads are very volatile and strongly correlated with output. In addition, the results show that the properties of the relationship between economic activity, prices and the interest rates differs between pre-2001 and post-2001 period, whereas the relationship among the real variables shows a smaller change between these periods. |
| Keywords: | Nominal Business Cycle Facts, Real Business Cycle Facts, Turkish Economy |
| JEL: | E1 E3 E5 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1202&r=cwa |
| By: | Ozan Hatipoglu; Onur Uyar |
| Date: | 2011–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bou:wpaper:2011/06&r=cwa |
| By: | Markus Jorra (University of Giessen) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the costs of recent sovereign defaults using synthetic control methods, a novel econometric technique based on comparative case studies. Evidence on the eects of debt crises is thus presented on a case-by-case basis, uncovering large variations in country-specic experiences. Our estimates of cumulated output losses, e.g., range between 8.5% and 23% depending on the considered default episode. Further dierences concern the persistence and likely causes of these costs. In particular, our results are consistent with the selective use of direct trade sanctions as punishment for sovereign defaults. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign defaults, Default costs, Case study, Synthetic control methods |
| JEL: | F34 H63 C21 C23 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:201151&r=cwa |
| By: | Masato Abe (Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific) |
| Abstract: | This working paper analyses the contribution of the Asia-Pacific automotive sector to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and the challenges and opportunities facing the sector in efforts to reduce those emissions, primarily carbon dioxide (CO2). The main purpose of this paper is to identify recommendations for appropriate policies and strategies as well as for regional cooperation, to ensure that future developments in the automotive sector contribute to mitigating and adapting to climate change. |
| Keywords: | climate change, vehicle carbon emission, automotive sector development, economic development |
| JEL: | F1 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esc:wpaper:10811&r=cwa |
| By: | Cont, Walter; Hancevic, Pedro; Navajas, Fernando H. |
| Abstract: | We study a cycle of subsidized energy prices and estimate its welfare impact on households in the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Region. A simple framework explains its emergence in terms of the preference of a median household (voter) for receiving transfer gains followed by a future flow of transfer losses. We evaluate actual transfers and welfare effects that a departure of prices of natural gas and electricity generation from opportunity costs since 2003 had on households and explore the impact of a way back to opportunity cost pricing. |
| Keywords: | energy prices; distortions; subsidies; welfare effects |
| JEL: | H22 Q48 D78 |
| Date: | 2011–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:35725&r=cwa |
| By: | Kamiar Mohaddes; Oral Williams |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a pairwise approach to investigate the main factors that have been driving inflation differentials in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region for the past two decades. The results suggest that inflation differentials in the GCC are largely influenced by the oil cycle, mainly through the credit and fiscal channels. This implies that closer coordination of fiscal policies will be key for facilitating the closer integration of the GCC economies and ahead of the move to a monetary union. The results also indicate that after controlling for cyclical factors, convergence increased even during the recent oil boom. |
| Keywords: | Business cycles , Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf , Inflation , Oil revenues , Oil sector , |
| Date: | 2011–12–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/294&r=cwa |
| By: | M. J. LOMBARDI; I. VAN ROBAYS |
| Abstract: | We assess whether and to what extent nancial activity in the oil futures markets has contributed to destabilize oil prices in recent years. We de ne a destabilizing nancial shock as a shift in oil prices that is not related to current and expected fun- damentals, and thereby distorts e¢ cient pricing in the oil market. Using a structural VAR model identi ed with sign restrictions, we disentangle this non-fundamental - nancial shock from fundamental shocks to oil supply and demand to determine their relative importance. We nd that shocks to oil demand and supply remain the main drivers of oil price swings. Financial investors in the futures market can however destabilize oil spot prices, although only in the short run. Moreover, nancial ac- tivity appears to have exacerbated gyrations in the oil market over the past decade, particularly in 2007-2009. |
| Keywords: | Oil price, Speculation, Structural VAR, Sign restrictions. |
| JEL: | C32 Q41 Q31 |
| Date: | 2011–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:11/760&r=cwa |
| By: | Fahim, Muhammad Amir |
| Abstract: | Pakistan is confronting the problem of water scarcity which is rendering an adverse impact on food security. The study examines the impact of water scarcity on food security in an era of climate change. It further focuses on projecting the future trends of water and food stock. The research effort probes the links among water scarcity, climate change, food security, water security, food inflation, poverty and management of water resources. Data on food security was collected from the FSA (Food Security analysis) of the Sustainable development Policy institute (SDPI) and Food insecurity and Vulnerability Information mapping system (FIVIMS). Simultaneous, structural and reduced form equations have been employed to catch the effect of water scarcity on three components of food security separately. In fact, the present study develops a series of models that captures the impact of water scarcity on the components of food security at Meso level. The models have traced an adverse impact of water scarcity water scarcity on food security at Meso levels. The findings so obtained may help in proposing the policy guidelines for overcoming water scarcity and handling with food insecurity caused by water scarcity and other factors. |
| Keywords: | Water scarcity; Water supply; Water Demand; Food security; Meso level; Simultaneous equations |
| JEL: | Q01 |
| Date: | 2011–11–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:35759&r=cwa |
| By: | Danielle Venn |
| Abstract: | Eligibility criteria for unemployment benefits, which require recipients to actively look for work, take up suitable job offers or take part in active labour market programmes (ALMPs), or risk benefit sanctions, can play an important role in offsetting the negative impact of generous unemployment benefits on employment incentives. This paper presents information on the strictness of eligibility criteria for unemployment benefits for 36 OECD and/or EU member countries. It covers entitlement conditions (employment and/or contribution requirements to gain access to benefits and sanctions for voluntary unemployment), job-search requirements (availability requirements during ALMPs and suitable work criteria), monitoring of job-search effort and sanctions for refusing a job offer or ALMP placement. These qualitative data are then used to compile a composite indicator of the strictness of eligibility criteria and some comparisons are made with the results of a similar exercise for earlier periods. This indicator complements existing cross-country indicators relating to unemployment benefits, such as net replacement rate data from the OECD Tax and Benefits database and data on ALMP expenditure compiled annually by Eurostat and the OECD.<BR>Les critères d’éligibilité aux allocations de chômage, comme l’obligation de chercher activement un emploi, d’accepter les offres d’emploi convenables ou de participer à des programmes actifs du marché du travail (PAMT), ou bien le risque de sanction par rapport aux prestations, peuvent jouer un rôle important pour compenser l’effet négatif des allocations de chômage généreuses sur les incitations à l’emploi. Ce document présente des informations sur la rigueur des conditions d’éligibilité pour les allocations de chômage dans 36 pays de l’OCDE et/ou membres de l’UE. Il décrit les conditions d’accès aux prestations (période d’emploi et/ou de contribution requise et sanctions en cas de chômage volontaire), les obligations de recherche d’emploi (disponibilité pour les participants aux PAMT et critère d’emploi convenable), le contrôle des efforts de recherche d’emploi et les sanctions en cas de refus d’une offre d’emploi ou d’une proposition de participation à une mesure active du marché du travail. Ces données qualitatives sont ensuite utilisées pour construire un indicateur composite de la rigueur des critères d’éligibilité et effectuer des comparaisons avec des résultats d’exercices similaires pour des périodes antérieures. Cet indicateur complète les autres indicateurs disponibles relatifs aux prestations de chômage, tel les taux de remplacement issus de la base de données de l’OCDE prestations et salaires et les données sur les dépenses publiques des PAMT compilées annuellement par Eurostat et l’OCDE. |
| Date: | 2012–01–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaab:131-en&r=cwa |
| By: | Jonathan Kearns (Reserve Bank of Australia); Philip Lowe (Reserve Bank of Australia) |
| Abstract: | The 2000s was a particularly eventful decade for both the international and Australian economies. There were: two recessions in many countries; the largest international financial crisis since the Great Depression; the ongoing rapid development of Asia; asset booms and busts; and, Australia experienced the longest sustained increase in commodity prices and the terms of trade in the nation's history. This paper provides an overview of the Australian economy's performance in the decade. Several key topics are elaborated on, including the development of Asia and implications for Australia, policy frameworks, and the opportunities and challenges facing the Australian economy, with a particular focus on the expansion of household balance sheets and the rapid growth in the mining economy. |
| Keywords: | Australian macroeconomy; economic performance; household balance sheets; terms of trade; monetary policy; fiscal policy |
| JEL: | E52 E62 F02 G20 N15 N17 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2011-07&r=cwa |