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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Bergsten, C. Fred (Asian Development Bank Institute); Noland, Marcus (Asian Development Bank Institute); Schott, Jeffrey J. (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the prospect of realizing regional economic integration via the mechanism of a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). The FTAAP initiative represents a politically ambitious, high potential benefit option for achieving Asian regional integration. Among its desirable attributes, the FTAAP initiative could help revive and promote a successful conclusion of the Doha Round negotiations; constitute a “Plan B” hedge if Doha fails; short-circuit the further proliferation of bilateral and sub-regional preferential agreements that create substantial new discrimination and discord within the Asia-Pacific region; defuse the renewed risk of “drawing a line down the middle of the Pacific” as East Asian, and perhaps the Western Hemisphere, initiatives produce disintegration of the Asia-Pacific region rather than the integration of that broader region that the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum was created to foster; channel the People’s Republic of China-United States economic conflict into a more constructive and less confrontational context; and revitalize APEC, which is of enhanced importance because of the prospects for Asia-Pacific and especially the PRC-US fissures. An incremental approach to the FTAAP, explicitly embodying enforceable reciprocal commitments, offers the best hope delivering on the concept’s abundant benefits. |
| Keywords: | regional economic integration; asia-pacific; doha round negotiations |
| JEL: | F14 F23 F31 |
| Date: | 2011–12–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0336&r=cwa |
| By: | Hasanat Shah, Syed; He, Bin; Li, Junjiang |
| Abstract: | This paper examines causality between FDI, GDP, Exports and Domestic Investment by using Granger and multivariate Granger causality tests. The study also employs gravity based panel model to investigate the impact of FDI inflows from trade partners on GDP, trade and domestic investment in Pakistan. The results show that two-way causality runs between GDP, domestic investment and FDI, while unidirectional causality is detected from exports to FDI. Our panel data estimation confirms the positive role of FDI inflows in GDP and domestic investment while the results shows that the role of FDI is insignificant in case of exports and imports. Similarly, the concentration and sporadic FDI inflows from a few trade partners is adversely affecting GDP and increases imports without affecting domestic investment and exports. On the other hand minor FDI inflows from trade partners significantly contribute to GDP and decreases imports. |
| Keywords: | trade partners; causality; gravity model; concentration |
| JEL: | F14 F21 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:35645&r=cwa |
| By: | Syed, Hasanat Shah; Hasnat, Hafsa; Li, Junjian |
| Abstract: | This paper uses macro panel data and gravity model to examine the impact of FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) inflows from 20 trade partners and increasing war cost in Pakistan on import, export and trade deficit. The paper compares the effect and inflows of FDI in Pakistan before and after joining the war on terror in 2001. This research work confirms the complementary relationship between FDI and export and FDI and imports, however, the results of FDI impact on trade deficit is insignificant. Similarly, the impact of war cost on exports, imports and trade deficit is not significant. |
| Keywords: | Pakistan; gravity model; uncertainty; trade partners |
| JEL: | F40 F21 H56 |
| Date: | 2011–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:35598&r=cwa |
| By: | Dasgupta, Basab; Ajwad, Mohamed Ihsan |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically investigates whether households affected by income shocks cope by reducing human capital investments. The analysis uses Crisis Response Surveys conducted in Armenia, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Romania, and Turkey during 2009 and 2010. A propensity score matching technique is adopted to compare health and education investment decisions among households that were affected by income shocks to the matched comparison group. The authors find that households affected by income shocks reduced some human capital investments. Interestingly, households in these five countries were more likely to adopt health-related coping strategies as opposed to education-related coping strategies. The results from Armenia, Bulgaria, Montenegro, and Turkey show that households affected by income shocks reduced their visits to doctors and reduced their spending on medicine and medical care significantly more than the matched comparison group. Households affected by income shocks reduced their education investments, but did not adopt harmful education-related coping strategies, such as withdrawing children from schools or moving children from costly private to cheaper public schools. These findings reveal that long-term and possibly intergenerational household welfare could be affected by short-run income shocks and hence underscore the need for governments to employ mitigation measures. |
| Keywords: | Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Health Systems Development&Reform,Labor Policies,Inequality,Debt Markets |
| Date: | 2011–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5926&r=cwa |
| By: | Cortuk, Orcan; Singh, Nirvikar |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the trilemma configuration of the Turkish economy. The paper starts by empirically testing the Mundell-Fleming theoretical concept of an “impossible trinity” (trilemma) for Turkey, following the Aizenman, Chinn and Ito (ACI) approach. This includes calculating the trilemma indices and investigating their evolution over the period of 1998Q1-2010Q4, which is split into sub-samples according to the Turkey’s macroeconomic policies. We also introduce alternative empirical techniques in order to deal with possible misspecification problems detected in the ACI approach. These techniques include employing additional terms in the regression, Two Stage Least Squares and Kalman filtering. These analyses show how contributions of financial integration and monetary independence have increased from the first period to the last, with corresponding limitations on exchange rate stability. The analysis continues by exploring the implications of changes in the trilemma indices for inflation. Accordingly, it reveals evidence that trilemma indices have impacts on inflation for the period of 2003-2010. Finally, it finds that there is a key role for international reserves as trilemma trade-offs and their effects on inflation can be mitigated with their accumulation. * |
| Keywords: | Trilemma; exchange rate stability; monetary independence; capital openness; reserve accumulation |
| JEL: | F15 F32 F41 F31 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:35623&r=cwa |
| By: | Tansel, Aysit; Kan, Elif Oznur |
| Abstract: | Informality has long been a salient phenomenon in developing country labor markets, thus has been addressed in several theoretical and empirical research. Turkey, given its economic and demographic dynamics, provides rich evidence for a growing, heterogeneous and multifaceted informal labor market. However, the existing evidence on labor informality in Turkey is mixed and scant. Along these lines, we aim to extend the existing literature by providing a diagnosis of dynamic worker flows across distinct labor market states and identifying the effects of certain individual and job characteristics on variant mobility patterns. More specifically, we first develop and discuss a set of probability statistics based on annual worker transitions across distinct employment states utilizing Markov transition processes. As Bosch and Maloney (2007:3) argue: “labor status mobility can be assumed as a process in which changes in the states occur randomly through time, and probabilities of moves between particular states are governed by Markov transition matrices”. Towards this end, we will use the novel Income and Living Conditions Survey (SILC) panel data set to compute the transition probabilities of individuals moving across the labor market states of formal-salaried, informal-salaried, formal self-employed, informal self-employed, unemployed and inactive. The transitions analysis is conducted separately for two, three and four year panels pertaining to 2006 to 2007, 2006 to 2008 and 2006 to 2009 transitions; for total, male and female samples; and lastly for total and non-agricultural samples. In this way, we aim to contribute to the limited body of stylized facts available on mobility and informality in the Turkish labor market. Next, we conduct multinomial logit regressions individually for each set of panel to identify the impact of individual characteristics (i.e. gender, age, education level, work experience, sector of economic activity, firm size, number of other household members, having/not having children, rural/urban) underlying worker transitions. The results reveal several relationships between the covariates and likelihood of variant transitions, and are of remarkable importance for designing policy to adress labor informality and reduce its negative externalities. |
| Keywords: | Labor market dynamics; informality; Markov processes; multinomial logit; Turkey |
| JEL: | J63 J40 O17 J21 J24 |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:35672&r=cwa |
| By: | Chanda, Rupa (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | Services have been a key driver of overall economic growth in South Asia since the 1990s. This paper examines how the growth of services output, trade and investment have affected service sector employment in South Asia and the extent to which countries in this region are pro-actively undertaking skill development, training, and human resource management policies that are targeted at the service sector. |
| Keywords: | services; service sector employment; service sector; south asia |
| JEL: | F14 F16 F22 F23 |
| Date: | 2012–01–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0339&r=cwa |
| By: | Papps, Kerry L. (University of Bath) |
| Abstract: | Worker-level panel data are used to analyse the separate employment effects of increases in the social security taxes paid by employers and increases in the minimum wage in Turkey between 2002 and 2005. Variation over time and among low-wage workers in the ratio of total labour costs to the gross wage gives rise to a natural experiment. Regression estimates indicate that a given increase in social security taxes has a larger negative effect on the probability of a worker remaining employed in the next quarter than an equal-sized increase in the minimum wage. This result is incompatible with the textbook model of labour supply and demand and suggests that workers may increase effort in response to an increase in wages. Consistent with this explanation, it is found that groups with the least access to the informal sector experience the smallest disemployment effects of the minimum wage. |
| Keywords: | minimum wages, payroll taxes, employment, Turkey |
| JEL: | J32 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6214&r=cwa |
| By: | Qureshi, Javed; Herani, Gobind M. |
| Abstract: | Purpose: The purpose of this study is to identify the core constraints in financing of SMEs in Karachi that impede their growth and even undermine their liquidity and financial position. Literature review: The problems and constraints are faced by small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) in Karachi with regard to access to financing. Along with Karachi, the other cities and areas in Pakistan are facing alike problems. Methods: This study is exploratory in nature and includes quantitative and qualitative data. Data was collected through well designed questionnaire from a sample group of 500 respondents of SMEs in Karachi. In addition, one-on-one formal and informal interviews were also taken from various businessmen and bankers. Conceptual Model: A conceptual model/ framework were devised to test and ascertain the statistical validity of the study. It includes dependent variable SME financing, and independent variables, financing constraints, functional/ internal barriers, government support and incentives, and SMEs growth and development. Findings: The findings revealed that most people/ SMEs feel reluctant to borrow from banks and financial institutes because of stringent collateral requirements, high mark up, lengthy and convoluted documentary process, and to some extent malpractices at banks and financial institutions. The preference of the lending institutions is to finance the large-scale corporate sector. The results of the data analysis confirmed profound relation of dependent and independent variables and accepted the hypotheses. Conclusion: A substantial portion of SMEs possesses great potential of growth. There exists unending opportunities to tap, while banking and financial system in Karachi and Pakistan enjoys enough liquidity but SMEs are unable to enjoy financial leverage because of various financial constraints, lack of support by government institutions and policy makers, and internal weaknesses and flaws of SMEs in managing their businesses. Finally recommendations were lodged. |
| Keywords: | Small and Medium enterprise; constraints in financing; Socio-economic Sustainability |
| JEL: | E44 D83 G21 |
| Date: | 2011–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:35624&r=cwa |
| By: | Lehmann, Hartmut (University of Bologna); Razzolini, Tiziano (University of Siena); Zaiceva, Anzelika (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia) |
| Abstract: | In the years 2003-2008 the Russian economy experienced a period of strong and sustained growth, which was accompanied by large worker turnover and rising informality. We investigate whether the burden of informality falls disproportionately on job separators (displaced workers and quitters) in the Russian labor market in the form of informal employment and undeclared wages in formal jobs. We also pursue the issues whether displaced workers experience more involuntary informal employment than workers who quit and whether informal employment persists. We find a strong positive link between separations and informal employment as well as shares of undeclared wages in formal jobs. Our results also show that displacement entraps some of the workers in involuntary informal employment. Those who quit, in turn, experience voluntary informality for the most part, but there seems a minority of quitting workers who end up in involuntary informal jobs. This scenario does not fall on all separators but predominantly on those with low human capital. Finally, informal employment is indeed persistent since separating from an informal job considerably raises the probability to be informal in the subsequent job. |
| Keywords: | job separations, informality, Russia |
| JEL: | J64 J65 P50 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6230&r=cwa |
| By: | Hasan, Dr. Syed Akif; Subhani, Dr. Muhammad Imtiaz; Osman, Ms. Amber |
| Abstract: | In Pakistan the budget deficits have consistently at increasing trend from 1995 to onwards which is being financed by the governments of now and then through external and domestic borrowing which are resulting a high debt levels due to high interest cost associated with it and this all pave the way for an increase in forthcoming taxes levy by the government time to time. This paper is an empirical investigation of the proposition that Fiscal deficit cannot be reduced by increasing taxes. The finding reveals that an increase in taxes is not the better choice for tackling the jinni of fiscal deficit. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal deficit; Tax Collection; Error correction model (ECM); ADF unit root test |
| JEL: | E62 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:35681&r=cwa |
| By: | Cizakca, Murat |
| Abstract: | This article assumes that within the next five years or so the bulk of the Islamic world will get rid of their dictators and aims to propose a blue print of governance for the newly emerging democracies. |
| Keywords: | Arab spring; Islam and democracy; Islam and economic development; rule of law; freedom of thought; secularism |
| JEL: | Z12 O53 O43 P50 P16 |
| Date: | 2011–12–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:35651&r=cwa |
| By: | Hasan, Dr. Syed Akif; Subhani, Dr. Muhammad Imtiaz; Osman, Ms. Amber |
| Abstract: | The social interaction taking place in our society is politics. Essential to any governing bodies, institutions etc. this paper’s forte is to specifically assess the politics phenomenon in the academic institutions of higher education. The involvement of politics in the academic society i.e. staff, faculty and employer has been of interest to this study. Politics can be liberal and conservative depending on the individuals running and other perceiving it, which gives birth to the argumentative dialogues, in order to gain power and authority to run the given regime. The survey questionnaire was developed and distributed to the leading higher education universities of Pakistan. There were 3000 respondents (faculty, staff, middle management and top-management). The testing endeavoured to quantify aspects of politics judgment in terms of contribution, appreciation, goals and values, interests, performance, quit, salary, comparison, emotional grudges/cushion for other work colleagues, communication, compensation, gossip, spying, back-biting, professional jealousy, self-esteem, job targets and ethics at academic-oriented work space. One samples T-test and KW test analyzed that staff level employees 50% disagree with the top-management control due to the strong inside and outside political influence over all categories of management. Politics has suppressed the environment and welfare of sound universities, which lay their foundation on transparency, honesty and ethical grounds. It is an alarming situation for universities, which have bad control of politics ruining the administration and overall productivity at work. Policy makers must assess the mal-use of politics in the higher educational sector universities to avoid major fallout of large establishments over a decade, which is creating speculation and dearth of consistent and right administrative and governing systems. |
| Keywords: | Politics; Higher education universities; Politicking; Professional Jealously; Ethics |
| JEL: | A2 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:35680&r=cwa |
| By: | Hasan, Dr. Syed Akif; Subhani, Dr. Muhammad Imtiaz; Osman, Ms. Amber |
| Abstract: | The Faith is the belief which comes from inside of a human or it is the inner state of strength which is similar to confidence while provoking a human to trust within a secular/ non secular context. The purpose of this article is to identify parallels of various stages of faith particularly as suggested by Fowler, from the person who is filled with fantasies first then has the moral rules and attitude, who moves on thereafter towards experiencing the world beyond the family, and then believes on self identity, has prejudices, and finally actualizes the spirit of an inclusive human community. |
| Keywords: | Faith; Stages of Faith; Self-identity; Human Psychology |
| JEL: | B0 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:35690&r=cwa |
| By: | Muhammad, Nasir; Muhammad, Shahbaz |
| Abstract: | This paper is the first attempt to investigate the causal relationship between military spending, terrorist attacks and intensity of terrorism in Pakistan, by applying ARDL approach to cointegration and Innovation Accounting approach for causality analysis. The results indicate that war on terror is the major determinant of military spending followed by terrorism intensity and the number of terrorist attacks respectively. The study further finds that terrorism intensity and terrorist attacks Granger-cause military spending but the reverse causality is found absent. The failure of military measures to curtail terrorism and its intensity induces one to suggest greater involvement of civil intelligence agencies by raising their budgets instead of pure military budget. |
| Keywords: | Causality Analysis; Military Spending; Civil Intelligence; Terrorism |
| JEL: | O1 |
| Date: | 2011–12–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:35635&r=cwa |
| By: | Hasan, Dr. Syed Akif; Subhani, Dr. Muhammad Imtiaz |
| Abstract: | Media always helps to reveal the real face of the societies while it is also a source of entertainment besides portraying the various societal allegories to illuminate the various issues of various societies. This research aims at interrogating the viewership pattern of housewives while gauging and identifying the existence of any sort of relationship between the viewership and the connectedness of individuals (Housewives) with the TV programs. In order to interrogate the outlined relationship, the frequency of viewership was questioned and level of connectedness with the programs was analyzed. Story, Cast, Acting of soap opera, Allegory (i.e. Dramas that are based on Serious/ Social Issues), escape factor, fashion factor, imitation factor, talk shows and reality shows were used as the proxies for program connectedness while stories and acting of soap opera, fashion factor and the morning talk shows are found to be the most preferred among the respondents/ housewives. The frequency of program viewership and the duration of television viewership were found to have significant relationship with all those various outlined proxies of program connectedness which has the huskier preference level. |
| Keywords: | Connectedness; Television viewership patterns; Housewives; Soup Operas |
| JEL: | A1 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:35685&r=cwa |