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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Antje Kröger; Kristina Meier |
| Abstract: | The financial crisis in 2008/2009 substantially influenced the everyday social and economic life of many Tajik people, including their behavior in the labor market. However, not much is known about the dynamics of the labor markets of the transition economies, especially in the context of the current financial crisis. Arguably, this is mainly due to paucity of panel data. In this paper, we aim to study the impact of the economic crisis on individual labor market outcomes in Tajikistan. This is the first study investigating the possible impact of the financial crisis in a transition country and uses a unique panel data set from Tajikistan. Although an impact evaluation in the true sense is impossible, due to the lack of a control group, comparing before and after-crisis outcomes can give insights as to how the crisis might have affected labor market outcomes. We do this by calculating transition probabilities between employment categories between 2007 and 2009, using a simple count method as well as predicted probabilities from multinomial probit regressions. Our results suggest an increased probability of moving into unemployment, inactivity or unpaid work during the crisis, with the self-employed being at more risk than the wage employed. This effect is more pronounced for females, as well as for very young and very old individuals. We also find that labor migration (predominantly to Russia) could be a mitigation strategy during the crisis. |
| Keywords: | Financial crisis, wage employment, migration, Tajikistan |
| JEL: | J24 J16 O10 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1174&r=cwa |
| By: | Kathryn Anderson; Antje Kroeger |
| Abstract: | The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the largest recipients of international remittances in the world; from a Balance of Payments measure of remittances, it ranked tenth in the world in 2008 in the ratio of remittances to GDP, a rapid increase from 30th place in 2004.Remittances can be used to maintain the household's standard of living by providing income to families with unemployed and underemployed adult members. Remittances can also be used to promote investment not only in businesses and communities but also in people. In this paper, we examine the role that remittances have played in the Kyrgyz Republic in promoting investments in children. Based on the capabilities approach to well-being initiated by Sen (2010), we look at the impact of remittances and domestic transfer payments primarily from internal migration on children's education and health. Our outcomes include enrollment in school and preschool, expenditures, stunting and wasting of preschool children, and health habits of older children. We use unique panel data from the Kyrgyz Republic for 2005-2008 and thus control for some of the biases inherent in cross-sectional studies of remittances and family outcomes. We find that overall remittances and domestic transfers have not promoted investments in the human capital of children. Specifically, preschool enrollments were higher in the urban north but secondary school enrollments were lower in other regions in remittance receiving households; expenditures were also negatively affected in the south and the mountain areas. These negative enrollment results were larger for girls than for boys. We also found evidence of stunting and wasting among young children and worse health habits among boys in remittance or transfer receiving households. In the long run, Kyrgyzstan needs human capital development for growth; our results suggest that remittances are not providing the boost needed in human capital to promote development in the future. |
| Keywords: | Children’s education and health, Remittances, Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia |
| JEL: | C23 F22 I21 O53 R23 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sec:cnstan:0430&r=cwa |
| By: | Damir Esenaliev; Antje Kröger; Susan Steiner |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwddc:dd62&r=cwa |
| By: | Addison, John T. (Department of Economics, Moore School of Business, University of South Carolina, Columbia, USA); Ozturk, Orgul Demet (Department of Economics, Moore School of Business, University of South Carolina, Columbia, USA) |
| Abstract: | The authors investigate the employment consequences of minimum wage regulation in 16 OECD countries, 1970-2008. Their treatment is motivated by Neumark and Wascher’s (2004) seminal cross-country study. Apart from the longer time interval examined, a major departure is the authors’ focus on prime-age females, a group often neglected in the minimum wage literature. Another is their deployment of time-varying policy and institutional regressors. The average effects they report are consistent with minimum wages causing material employment losses among the target group. Their secondary finding is that minimum wage increases are more associated with (reduced) participation rates than with elevated joblessness. Further, although the authors find common ground with Neumark and Wascher as regards the role of some individual labor market institutions and policies, they do not observe the same patterns in the institutional data. Specifically, prime-age females do not exhibit stronger employment losses in countries with the least regulated markets. |
| Keywords: | Minimum wages, minimum wage institutions, prime-age females, disemployment, participation, unemployment, employment protection, labor standards, labor market policies, unions |
| JEL: | J20 J38 J48 J58 J88 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:278&r=cwa |
| By: | Geraint Johnes; A Aggarwal; R Freguglia; G Spricigo |
| Abstract: | The impact of education on labour market outcomes is analysed using data from various rounds of the National Sample Survey of India. Occupational destination is examined using both multinomial logit analyses and structural dynamic discrete choice modelling. The latter approach involves the use of a novel approach to constructing a pseudo-panel from repeated cross-section data, and is particularly useful as a means of evaluating policy impacts over time. We find that policy to expand educational provision leads initially to an increased takeup of education, and in the longer term leads to an increased propensity for workers to enter non-manual employment. |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lan:wpaper:4256&r=cwa |
| By: | De Jonghe, O.G.; Disli, M.; Schoors, K. (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | Does better corporate governance unambiguously improve the risk/return efficiency of banks? Or does either a re-orientation of banks' revenue mix towards more opaque products, an economic downturn, or tighter supervision create off-setting or reinforcing effects? The authors relate bank efficiency to shortfalls from a stochastic risk/return frontier. They analyze how internal governance mechanisms (CEO duality, board experience, political connections, and education profile) and external governance mechanisms (discipline exerted by shareholders, depositors, or skilled employees) determine efficiency in a sample of Turkish banks. The 2000 financial crisis was a wakeup call for bank efficiency and corporate governance. As a result, better corporate governance mechanisms have been able to improve risk/return efficiency when the economic, regulatory, and supervisory environments are more stable and bank products are more complex. |
| Keywords: | corporate governance;bank risk;noninterest income;crisis;frontier. |
| JEL: | G01 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:kubcen:2011129&r=cwa |
| By: | Ozsoz, Emre |
| Abstract: | By using data from thirteen publicly traded commercial and deposit banks this paper estimates the determinants of market risk for bank equities in the case of an emerging market setting, Turkey. The analysis reveals that maturity composition of a bank’s loans, the share of trading income in a banks’ overall revenue stream and foreign-ownership structure are important indicators of the volatility of its equity returns. Banks with shorter loan maturity positions are regarded by investors as safer companies to invest in while increases in trading income as a source of bank’s overall revenue increases the volatility of its equity returns. Foreign ownership of a bank also lowers its equity return risk. |
| Keywords: | Commercial banks; risk; Turkish Banks |
| JEL: | G28 G10 G21 |
| Date: | 2011–10–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:35291&r=cwa |
| By: | Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz |
| Abstract: | Recently, there has been increased interest in real-time forecasts of the real price of crude oil. Standard oil price forecasts based on reduced-form regressions or based on oil futures prices do not allow consumers of forecasts to explore how much the forecast would change relative to the baseline forecast under alternative scenarios about future oil demand and oil supply conditions. Such scenario analysis is of central importance for end-users of oil price forecasts interested in evaluating the risks underlying these forecasts. We show how policy-relevant forecast scenarios can be constructed from recently proposed structural vector autoregressive models of the global oil market and how changes in the probability weights attached to these scenarios affect the upside and downside risks embodied in the baseline real-time oil price forecast. Such risk analysis helps forecast users understand what assumptions are driving the forecast. An application to real-time data for December 2010 illustrates the use of these tools in conjunction with reduced-form vector autoregressive forecasts of the real price of oil, the superior real-time forecast accuracy of which has recently been established. |
| Keywords: | Forecast; Oil price; Predictive density; Real time; Risk; Scenario analysis; VAR |
| JEL: | C53 E32 Q43 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8698&r=cwa |
| By: | Adnan, Rasool |
| Abstract: | The paper presents an alternative narrative to the what led to conflict in the once peaceful Swat Valley in Pakistan. The widely discussed view has been that Talibanization is what led to the conflict but this paper argues that it was in fact bad governance over a period of time that led to this conflict by creating an environment where a governance vacuum existed. This vacuum was exploited by local groups to establish their control over the region. The research is evidenced by a field study that gauged public perception. |
| Keywords: | Conflict; International Aid; Aid Effectiveness; Swat; Pakistan; Governance; Armed Conflict; Post Conflict Reconstruction |
| JEL: | D74 L38 |
| Date: | 2012–11–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:35357&r=cwa |
| By: | Malliaris, A.G.; Malliaris, Mary |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates inter-relationships among the price behavior of oil, gold and the euro using time series and neural network methodologies. Traditionally gold is a leading indicator of future inflation. Both the demand and supply of oil as a key global commodity are impacted by inflationary expectations and such expectations determine current spot prices. Inflation influences both short and long-term interest rates that in turn influence the value of the dollar measured in terms of the euro. Certain hypotheses are formulated in this paper and time series and neural network methodologies are employed to test these hypotheses. We find that the markets for oil, gold and the euro are efficient but have limited inter-relationships among themselves. |
| Keywords: | Oil; Gold; the Euro; Relationships; Time-series Analysis; Neural Network Methodology |
| JEL: | G14 Q41 G15 |
| Date: | 2011–11–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:35266&r=cwa |
| By: | Zhao, Xiaoli; Li, Na; Ma, Chunbo |
| Abstract: | Residential energy consumption (REC) is the second largest energy use category (10%) in China and urban residents account for most of the REC. Understanding the underlying drivers of variations of urban REC thus helps to identify challenges and opportunities and provide advices for future policy measures. This paper applies the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) to a decomposition of Chinaâs urban REC during the period of 1998-2007 at disaggregated product/activity level using data collected from a wide range of sources. Our results have shown an extensive structure change towards a more energy-intensive household consumption structure as well as an intensive structure change towards high-quality and cleaner energy such as electricity, oil, and natural gas, which reflects a changing life style and consumption mode in pursuit of a higher level of comfort, convenience and environmental protection. We have also found that Chinaâs price reforms in the energy sector have contributed to a reduction of REC while scale factors including increased urban population and income levels have played a key role in the rapid growth of REC. We suggest that further deregulation in energy prices and regulatory as well as voluntary energy efficiency and conservation policies in the residential sector should be promoted. |
| Keywords: | Residential Energy Consumption, Index Decomposition Analysis (IDA), China, Consumer/Household Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q32, Q43, |
| Date: | 2011–11–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uwauwp:117810&r=cwa |
| By: | Christiane Baumeister; Gert Peersman |
| Abstract: | There has been a systematic increase in the volatility of the real price of crude oil since 1986, followed by a decline in the volatility of oil production since the early 1990s. We explore reasons for this evolution. We show that a likely explanation of this empirical fact is that both the short-run price elasticities of oil demand and of oil supply have declined considerably since the second half of the 1980s. This implies that small disturbances on either side of the oil market can generate large price responses without large quantity movements, which helps explain the latest run-up and subsequent collapse in the price of oil. Our analysis suggests that the variability of oil demand and supply shocks actually has decreased in the more recent past preventing even larger oil price fluctuations than observed in the data. |
| Keywords: | Econometric and statistical methods; International topics |
| JEL: | E31 E32 Q43 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:11-28&r=cwa |
| By: | Cai, Ximing; Yang, Yi-Chen E.; Zhao, Jianshi; Ringler, Claudia |
| Abstract: | In 1999, the Government of China enforced a cross-provincial, quota-based Water Allocation Agreement that was developed in 1987 and titled Unified Water Flow Regulation (UWFR) to ensure that flow to the Yellow River mouth would not be cut off. This policy was in line with the refocus of the Government, over the last decade, on sustainable water use and keeping the Yellow River healthy. The policy enforcement ended more than two decades of flow-cutoffs, that is, periods when the Yellow River did not reach the Bohai Sea at its mouth, during an increasing number of days every year. |
| Keywords: | Water allocation, river basin management, multi-agent system, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1117&r=cwa |
| By: | Reardon, Thomas; Minten, Bart |
| Abstract: | There has been a rapid transformation of food supply chains in India over the past two decades. Modern retail sales are growing at 49 percent per year and quickly penetrating urban food markets and even rural markets. The food-processing sector is growing quickly while also concentrating and undergoing a rapid increase in the capital-output ratio, with little increase in employment. A modern segment is emerging in the wholesale sector, with the penetration of modern logistics firms and specialized modern wholesalers. |
| Keywords: | wholesale markets, Supply chains, Farmers, Supermarkets, Food processing, logistics, cold chain, Food markets, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1115&r=cwa |
| By: | Kyle Bagwell; Robert W. Staiger |
| Abstract: | A fundamental objective of the Doha Round of WTO negotiations is to improve the trading prospects of developing countries. The 2001 declaration from the WTO Ministerial Conference in Doha, Qatar, commits the member governments to negotiations aimed at substantial improvements in market access with a view to phasing out export subsidies, while embracing “special and differential treatment” for developing countries as an integral part of all elements of the negotiations. The main message of this paper comes in three parts. First, these stated aims are incompatible from the perspective of our economic analysis; thus, if these aims are pursued as stated, then we conclude that they are unlikely to deliver the meaningful trade gains for developing countries that the WTO membership seeks. Second, in attempting to integrate its developing country membership into the world trading system, the WTO may face a “latecomers” problem that, while occurring also in earlier rounds, is unprecedented in its scale in the Doha Round, and which could potentially account for the current impasse. And third, we argue that if the Round maintains its stated aims but moves away from the non-reciprocal special-and-differential treatment norm as the cornerstone of the approach to meeting developing country needs in the WTO, and if developing countries prepare, in markets where they are large, to come to the bargaining table and to negotiate reciprocally with each other and with developing nations, then it might be possible to break the impasse at Doha, to address the latecomers problem, and to deliver trade gains for developing countries. |
| JEL: | F02 F1 F13 |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17650&r=cwa |