|
on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Olga N. Shemyakina (University of Sheffield, UK) |
| Abstract: | Shortly following its independence in 1991, Tajikistan suffered a violent civil war. This study explores the effect of this conflict on education and labour market outcomes for men and women. The study uses the 2003 and 2007 Tajik Living Standards Measurement Surveys and employs the regional and cohort-level exposures to the conflict to identify these relationships. The results suggest that the conflict had a large and lasting impact on education. In the conflict affected regions, women who were of school age during the war are significantly less likely to complete both nine and eleven years of schooling as compared to women of the similar age from the lesser affected areas. Thus, the gap in education created during the war may have become permanent. Further, these young women were also more likely to have held a job in the last 14 days. The increased workforce participation among young women signals that creation of new local jobs is likely to be welcomed by women if the government were to pursue job-creating policies. Conditional on being employed, men and women in the more conflict affected areas do not receive wages that are significantly different from wages received by men and women in the lesser affected areas. |
| Date: | 2011–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:106&r=cwa |
| By: | Herzfeld, Thomas; Dries, Liesbeth; Glauben, Thomas |
| Abstract: | A standard model of labour adjustment in times of economic transition assumes a constant impact of variables like sectoral income differences, unemployment or the relative size of the agricultural sector. This paper shows for a panel of 29 European and Asian transition countries that the standard model fails to take the heterogeneity of determinants of sectoral labour adjustment properly into account. A random coefficients model reveals quite heterogeneous influences of the intersectoral income ratio, the relative size of agricultural employment, the unemployment rate, and the general level of economic development on a measure of sectoral labour adjustment across transition countries. Moreover, for selected determinants the estimated coefficients show opposing signs. |
| Keywords: | Labor and Human Capital, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae11:114540&r=cwa |
| By: | H. Lehmann; A. Muravyev |
| Abstract: | This paper summarizes the evolution of labor markets and labor market institutions and policies in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe as well as of Central Asia over the last two decades. The main focus is on the evolution of labor market institutions, which are among candidate explanations for the very diverse trajectories of labor markets in the region. We consider recent contributions that attempt to assess the effect of labor market institutions on labor market performance of TEs, including the policy-relevant issue of complementarity of institutions. |
| JEL: | J21 P20 |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp783&r=cwa |
| By: | Ron Alquist; Lutz Kilian; Robert J. Vigfusson |
| Abstract: | We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the choice of sample period and about the tradeoffs between alternative oil price series and model specifications? Are real or nominal oil prices predictable based on macroeconomic aggregates? Does this predictability translate into gains in out-of-sample forecast accuracy compared with conventional no-change forecasts? How useful are oil futures markets in forecasting the price of oil? How useful are survey forecasts? How does one evaluate the sensitivity of a baseline oil price forecast to alternative assumptions about future demand and supply conditions? How does one quantify risks associated with oil price forecasts? Can joint forecasts of the price of oil and of U.S. real GDP growth be improved upon by allowing for asymmetries? |
| Keywords: | Econometric and statistical methods; International topics |
| JEL: | C53 Q43 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:11-15&r=cwa |
| By: | Sergey Paltsev |
| Abstract: | Recent increases in natural gas reserve estimates and advances in shale gas technology make natural gas a fuel with good prospects to serve a bridge to a low-carbon world. Russia is an important energy supplier as it holds the world largest natural gas reserves and it is the world’s largest exporter of natural gas. Energy was one of the driving forces of Russia’s recent economic recovery from the economic collapse of 1990s. These prospects have changed drastically with a global recession and the collapse of oil and gas prices from their peaks of 2008. An additional factor is an ongoing surge in a liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity and a development of Central Asia’s and the Middle East gas supplies that can compete with Russian gas in its traditional (European) and potential (Asian) markets. To study the long-term prospects for Russian natural gas, we employ the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. While we consider the updated reserve estimates for all world regions, in this paper we focus on the results for Russian natural gas trade. The role of natural gas is explored in the context of several policy assumptions: with no greenhouse gas mitigation policy and scenarios of emissions targets in developed countries. Scenarios where Europe takes on an even more restrictive target of 80 percent reduction of greenhouse gas emissions relative to 2005 by 2050 and reduces its nuclearbased generation are also considered. Asian markets become increasingly important for natural gas exports and several scenarios about their potential development are considered. We found that over the next 20-40 years natural gas can still play a substantial role in Russian exports and there are substantial reserves to support a development of the gas-oriented energy system both in Russia and in its current and potential gas importers. In the Reference scenario, exports of natural gas grow from Russia’s current 7 Tcf to 10-12 Tcf in 2030 and 15-18 Tcf in 2050. Alternative scenarios provide a wider range of projections, with a share of Russian gas exports shipped to Asian markets rising to 30 percent by 2030 and more than 50 percent in 2050. Patterns of international gas trade show increased flows to the Asian region from the Middle East, Central Asia, Australia and Russia. Europe’s reliance on LNG imports increases, while it still maintains sizable imports from Russia. |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mee:wpaper:1112&r=cwa |
| By: | Christiane Baumeister; Lutz Kilian |
| Abstract: | We construct a monthly real-time data set consisting of vintages for 1991.1-2010.12 that is suitable for generating forecasts of the real price of oil from a variety of models. We document that revisions of the data typically represent news, and we introduce backcasting and nowcasting techniques to fill gaps in the real-time data. We show that real-time forecasts of the real price of oil can be more accurate than the no-change forecast at horizons up to one year. In some cases real-time MSPE reductions may be as high as 25 percent one month ahead and 24 percent three months ahead. This result is in striking contrast to related results in the literature for asset prices. In particular, recursive vector autoregressive (VAR) forecasts based on global oil market variables tend to have lower MSPE at short horizons than forecasts based on oil futures prices, forecasts based on AR and ARMA models, and the no-change forecast. In addition, these VAR models have consistently higher directional accuracy. We demonstrate how with additional identifying assumptions such VAR models may be used not only to understand historical fluctuations in the real price of oil, but to construct conditional forecasts that reflect hypothetical scenarios about future demand and supply conditions in the market for crude oil. These tools are designed to allow forecasters to interpret their oil price forecast in light of economic models and to evaluate its sensitivity to alternative assumptions. |
| Keywords: | Econometric and statistical methods; International topics |
| JEL: | Q43 C53 E32 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:11-16&r=cwa |
| By: | Michael Greenstone |
| Abstract: | Not Available |
| Date: | 2011–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mee:wpaper:1109&r=cwa |
| By: | Natanelov, Valeri; Alam, Mohammad J.; McKenzie, Andrew M.; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido |
| Keywords: | Demand and Price Analysis, Risk and Uncertainty, |
| Date: | 2011–09–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae11:114626&r=cwa |
| By: | Haque, Nadeem; Ahmed, Vaqar; Shahid, Sana |
| Abstract: | While Pakistan has taken several steps to promote competition in its markets, further reforms are required in improving domestic commerce, agricultural markets and industries. With increasing risks and cost of doing business due to deteriorating law and order situation as well as massive energy shortages, Pakistan needs to compensate its entrepreneurs and investors by enhancing its investment and business climate. By adopting certain administrative and legal reforms, Pakistan can considerably lessen the burden on its businessmen and help lower the costs of exogenous factors. The main reforms needed to promote competitive and vibrant markets need to be initiated at the domestic commerce level. For promoting domestic commerce, city zoning laws and building regulations should be reformed to allow land to respond to market demand. The legal framework must also be strengthened to support the complex needs of diverse markets. Moreover, there is a need to push for openness and competition to bring international quality goods to the market and promote innovation. For agricultural markets, the Agricultural Produce Markets Act 1939 must be reformed to introduce competition such that private sector involvement is encouraged. Government involvement in storage and transport facilities, especially for agricultural produce, needs to be reconsidered so space can open up for private sector involvement. For reforms in the industries, consistency in policy is required along with reduction in government involvement in certain areas. It is only through minimising the heavy government footprint from markets that the private sector can be allowed to function competitively and efficiently, emphasising the role of markets as a major driving force behind economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Competition; Market Regulation; Economic Growth |
| JEL: | G28 D4 F43 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:33990&r=cwa |
| By: | Cheptea, Angela |
| Abstract: | Emerging countries have been winning large market shares since the early 1990s. Among these, China stands out with the most remarkable performance: it almost tripled its world market share since 1994 reaching 16.1% in 2007. The present paper attempts to identify the countries that have profited the most from this increase in the size of the Chinese market. I use an econometric shift-share methodology, that permits to identify for each trade flow the share of growth arising from the capacity to target the products and markets with the highest increase in demand, and the share due exclusively to exporterâs performance. |
| Keywords: | China, Export Performance, Shift-Share, International Relations/Trade, F12, F15, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae11:114299&r=cwa |
| By: | Channing Arndt; Sam Jones; Finn Tarp |
| Abstract: | Controversy over the aggregate impact of foreign aid has focused on reduced form estimates of the aid-growth link. The causal chain, through which aid affects developmental outcomes including growth, has received much less attention. We address this gap by: (i) specifying a structural model of the main relationships; (ii) estimating the impact of aid on a range of final and intermediate outcomes; and (iii) quantifying a simplied representation of the full structural form, where aid impacts on growth through key intermediate outcomes. A coherent picture emerges: aid stimulates growth and reduces poverty through physical capital investment and improvements in health. |
| Keywords: | growth; foreign aid; aid effectiveness; simultaneous equations |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2011-44&r=cwa |
| By: | Ashima Goyal (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | An SIIO paradigm, based on structure and ideas that become engraved in institutions and affect outcomes, is developed to examine and assesses monetary policy in India after independence. Narrative history, data analysis, and reporting of research demonstrate the dialectic between ideas and structure. Exogenous supply shocks are used to identify policy shocks and isolate their effects. It turns out policy was sometimes exceedingly tight when the common understanding was of a large monetary overhang. Fiscal dominance made policy procyclical. But the three factors that cause a loss of monetary autonomy-governments, markets and openness-are moderating each other. Markets moderate fiscal profligacy and global crises moderate markets and openness. Greater current congruence between ideas and structure is improving institutions and contributing to India's better performance. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy history, Structure, Ideas, Institutions, Outcomes, India |
| JEL: | E42 E5 E58 E63 |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2011-018&r=cwa |
| By: | Matyukha, Andriy; Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr; Saraykin, Valeriy; Uzun, Vasilii |
| Abstract: | This study conveys the impact of corporate ownership on economic performance of agroholdings â integrated agricultural, processing, marketing, financial and industrial business units in Russiaâs agro-food sector. Using a unique database of the All-Russian Nikonov-Institute of Agrarian Problems and Informatics, we investigate 151 agroholdings in Russia and evaluate their economic performances for 2006. Applying the multiple linear regression analysis we were able to quantify corporate ownership and analyze a priori unobserved factors. The results of the econometric estimation reveal that state ownership exerts negative influence on the economic performance of agroholdings. |
| Keywords: | Agroholding, Corporate Ownership, Performance, Russia, Agribusiness, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi11:115535&r=cwa |
| By: | Asad K. Ghalib (Brooks World Poverty Institute, University of Manchester); Issam Malki (Departmaent of Economics, University of Bath); Katsushi S. Imai (School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester) |
| Abstract: | This study examines if household access to microfinance reduces poverty in Pakistan, and if so, to what extent and across which dimensions of well-being by taking account of the multi-dimensional aspect of poverty. The study draws on first-hand observations and empirical data gathered through the interviews of 1,132 households across eleven districts in the rural areas of the province of Punjab in Pakistan. We employ a quasi-experimental research design and make use of the data collected by interviewing both borrower (treatment) and non-borrower (control) households and control for sample selection biases by using propensity score matching. It has been confirmed that microfinance programmes had a positive impact on the welfare of participating households, that is, the poverty reducing-effects were observed and statistically significant on a number of indicators, including expenditure on healthcare or clothing, monthly household income, and certain dwelling characteristics, such as water supply and quality of roofing and walls. |
| Keywords: | Microfinance; poverty; impact assessment; propensity score matching; Pakistan |
| JEL: | C21 I32 O15 Q12 |
| Date: | 2011–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2011-28&r=cwa |
| By: | Amjad, Rashid; Din, Musleh-ud; Qayyum, Abdul |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes that the underlying cause of the macroeconomic problems facing Pakistan today are a series of supply shocks which have constrained output growth. It is argued that while the current debate has solely focused on government expenditures and revenues, it is critical to also address the acute energy shortages which is constraining supply. The paper goes on to present four recommendations for breaking out of the present stagflation: (i) prudent macroeconomic management, (ii) reviving the role of the government in development while restoring fiscal balance, (iii) loosening monetary policy in order to spur the private sector, and (iv) improving social safety nets. |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth; Supply Shock; Pakistan |
| JEL: | F43 P44 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:33812&r=cwa |
| By: | Go, Delfin S.; Quijada, Jose Alejandro |
| Abstract: | How many countries are on target to achieve the Millennium Development Goals by 2015? How many countries are off target, and how far are they from the goals? And what factors are essential for improving the odds that off-target countries can reach the goals? This paper examines these questions and takes a closer look at the diversity of country progress. The authors argue that the answers from the available data are surprisingly hopeful. In particular, two-thirds of developing countries are on target or close to being on target for all the Millennium Development Goals. Among developing countries that are falling short, the average gap of the top half is about 10 percent. For those countries that are on target, or close to it, solid economic growth and good policies and institutions have been the key factors in their success. With improved policies and faster growth, many countries that are close to becoming on target could still achieve the targets in 2015 or soon after. |
| Keywords: | Population Policies,E-Business,Achieving Shared Growth,Primary Education,Country Strategy&Performance |
| Date: | 2011–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5825&r=cwa |
| By: | Bobojonov, Ihtiyor; Sommer, Rolf |
| Abstract: | The paper compares the risk coping potential of insurances that are based on indices derived from weather (rainfall and temperature) data as well as from crop model and remote sensing analyses. Corresponding indices were computed for the case of wheat production in the Aleppo region of northern Syria, representative for agricultural production systems in many developing countries. The results demonstrate that weather derivatives such as the rainfall sum index (RSI) and the rainfall deficit index (RDI) have a very good potential for coping with risk in semiarid areas. Crop simulation model index (CSI) on the other hand could serve as an alternative to RSI and RDI when historical farm yield data is not available or not reliable. In such cases we simulated historical yields using the CropSyst cropping system simulation model. Remote sensing data could be used to establish index insurances where weather stations are sparsely located and (daily time step) weather data thus not available. The study analyzes two indexes estimated from the Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI): (1.) the farm level NDVI (FNDVI) and (2.) the area level NDVI (ANDVI). FNDVI may have a very high potential for securing farm revenues, but may be prone to moral hazard since farm management changes and subsequent gains or losses in crop production are directly revealed by the NDVI when high resolution images are used. Therefore, we recommend ANDVI for developing countries since the index is estimated for the whole agricultural zone similar to traditional area-yield insurances. |
| Keywords: | risk management, index insurance, alternative index, CropSyst, NDVI, Risk and Uncertainty, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae11:114256&r=cwa |
| By: | Singh Dhol, Sukhwinder; Park, Julian; Litten-Brown, Jennie |
| Abstract: | Food for all continues to be a key issue, especially in the developing world where every fifth person is chronically undernourished. India, a fast growing developing country has also experienced serious food shortages for example in the mid 1960s. Punjab, a small northern Indian state has developed, particularly since the Green Revolution in the mid 1960s, to be a key agricultural area producing 13% of the food grains of India. Increased productivity brought economic benefits to farmers and led to the establishment of Wheat-Rice Cropping Pattern (WRCP) as the main agricultural system of Punjab which more recently has become reliant on underground water resources, agricultural machinery, chemical fertilisers and pesticides. More recently stagnating yields and increased cost of cultivation of WRCP have squeezed the net farm profitability. However, the WRCP has been, and remains the first choice of farmers, because of its comparative economic advantage, assured marketing and stable productivity level. This paper compares the economic sustainability of WRCP to that of other alternative cropping patterns in Punjab and answers the question âWhy farmers continue with the WRCP despite various crop diversification efforts in the pastâ. Interviews with 120 farmers across Punjab illustrated the economic and risk advantages of WRCP over other potential cropping patterns and concludes that if cropping systems in Punjab are to become more environmentally sustainable then policy makers will need to put mechanisms in place which either encourage a more sustainable WRCP or provide the basis for the growth of alternative, less environmentally damaging cropping systems. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, cropping systems, Punjab, sustainability, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, |
| Date: | 2011–09–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae11:116007&r=cwa |
| By: | Maas, Sarah; Matthews, Alan |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the performance of African agri-food exports to the EU market over the first decade of the new millennium. The EU is Africaâs single largest export market absorbing just half of all African agri-food exports. Countries are grouped according to the preferential trade regime they enjoy to enter the EU market: North African countries under EuroMed agreements; least developed African countries under the Everything but Arms arrangement; other African countries under the Cotonou Agreement; and South Africa under its Trade, Development and Cooperation Agreement. Despite these preferences, Africa appears to be losing market share. A shift-share analysis confirms that, with the exception of the African Mediterranean countries, the competitiveness of African exporters deteriorated over this decade. Examination of the potential impact of duty-free access for non-LDC African exporters under the interim Economic Partnership Agreements after 2008 shows that this is not likely to reverse this trend. Despite evidence that preferences for agri-food products work, improving Africaâs export performance will require investment by African countries themselves in overcoming the supply-side obstacles to increasing agri-food exports. |
| Keywords: | Africa, EU, agricultural exports, market access, preference agreements, Food Security and Poverty, F14, Q17, |
| Date: | 2011–09–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae11:114664&r=cwa |