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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Capannelli, Giovanni (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | Asian economic regionalism has emerged from a bottom-up process, driven by market forces in the absence of a grand plan for regional integration. While the financial crisis of 1997–98 triggered new regional cooperation initiatives, more recently several Asian political leaders have formulated proposals for the creation of a regional economic community, suggesting the possible start of a top-down approach. Based on the results of a survey of Asia’s opinion leaders conducted by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in 2010, this paper discusses how Asia’s institutional architecture for economic and financial integration is taking shape, suggesting the need to strengthen existing institutions that promote Asian regionalism and to create new ones. |
| Keywords: | chiang mai initiative; economic cooperation; regional integration |
| JEL: | F15 F36 H87 O53 |
| Date: | 2011–09–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0308&r=cwa |
| By: | George, Justine |
| Abstract: | This paper critically reviews the debate of ‘growth and development’ since 1950 in order to place and conceptualize the term inclusive growth. The paper argues that the basic objective of inclusive growth is the smooth functioning of nation state and to avoid socio economic and political unrest and it seems that the inherent agenda is to maintain conventional economic growth structure without breaking its persistent momentum. Moreover, the paper described a development strategy for developing countries by considering various empirical and theoretical evidences and it concludes by arguing that, it is very difficult to achieve the developmental outcomes without breaking the conventional growth structure. |
| Keywords: | Inclusive growth; Growth and development |
| JEL: | O1 O10 O2 O20 |
| Date: | 2011–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:33182&r=cwa |
| By: | Dani Rodrik |
| Abstract: | The question addressed in this paper is whether the gap in performance between the developed and developing worlds can continue, and in particular, whether developing nations can sustain the rapid growth they have experienced of late. The good news is that growth in the developing world should depend not on growth in the advanced economies themselves, but on the difference in the productivity levels of the two groups of countries – on the “convergence gap” – which remains quite large. Yet much of this convergence potential is likely to go to waste. Convergence is anything but automatic, and depends on sustaining rapid structural change in the direction of tradables such as manufacturing and modern services. The policies that successful countries have used to achieve this are hard to emulate. Moreover, these policies – such as currency undervaluation and industrial policies – will meet greater resistance on the part of industrial countries struggling with stagnant economies and high unemployment. |
| JEL: | O40 |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17400&r=cwa |
| By: | Prema-chandra Athukorala |
| JEL: | F21 F23 O33 O53 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2011-09&r=cwa |
| By: | Sang-Hyop LEE (Sang-Hyop LEE East West Center and University of Hawaii at Manoa, USA); Andrew MASON (Andrew MASON East West Center and University of Hawaii at Manoa, USA); Donghyun PARK (Donghyun PARK Economics and Research Department, Asian Development Bank, Philippines) |
| Abstract: | Asia as a whole is experiencing a rapid demographic transition toward older population structures. Within this broader region-wide trend, there is considerable heterogeneity, with different countries at different stages of the demographic transition. In this paper, we document Asia’s population aging, describe the region’s old-age support systems, and draw out the regional socioeconomic implications of population aging and old-age support systems. Population aging gives rise to two fundamental challenges for the region – (1) developing socioeconomic systems that can provide economic security to the growing number of elderly and (2) sustaining strong growth in the face of aging over the next few decades. Successfully addressing those two challenges will be vital for ensuring Asia’s continued economic success in the medium and long term. |
| Date: | 2011–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2011-04&r=cwa |
| By: | Muhammad, Shahbaz; Lean, Hooi Hooi |
| Abstract: | This study revisits the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Pakistan by controlling and investigating the effects of two major production factors - capital and labor. The empirical evidence confirms the cointegration among the variables and indicates that electricity consumption has a positive effect on economic growth. Moreover, bi-directional Ganger causality between electricity consumption and economic growth has been found. The findings suggests that adoption of electricity conservation policies to conserve energy resources may unwittingly decline growth and the lower growth rate will in turn further decrease the demand for electricity. Therefore, governments contemplating such conservationist policies should instead explore and develop alternate sources of energy as a strategy rather than just increasing electricity production per se in order to meet the rising demand for electricity in their quest towards sustaining development in the country. |
| Keywords: | Electricity Consumption; Economic Growth; Ganger Causality |
| JEL: | F43 Q4 |
| Date: | 2011–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:33196&r=cwa |
| By: | Bourdet, Yves (Lund University); Persson, Maria (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | The current political turmoil in the Arab world has contributed to renewed interest in the Barcelona Process. This paper explores whether deeper integration in the form of trade facilitation – i.e. improved and simplified trade procedures – could be an important part of a reform agenda. Adopting a Southern perspective by focusing on exports from non-EU Mediterranean countries to the EU, we test whether the efficiency of trade procedures affects (i) bilateral volumes of exports, and (ii) the number of products exported. Our findings suggest that trade facilitation could lead to substantially increased export volumes and export diversification. |
| Keywords: | Barcelona Process; Mediterranean Union; European Union; Deeper Integration; Trade Facilitation; Export volumes; Export Diversification |
| JEL: | F15 O19 O24 |
| Date: | 2011–08–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:0881&r=cwa |
| By: | Sergey Kolesnikov (Department of Economics, European University at St. Petersburg); Olga Podkorytova |
| Abstract: | In our paper, we use the gravity model of the international trade to estimate the effect of the future WTO ascension for Russia based on the current WTO effect for Russia's WTO trade partners. Starting from Rose's specification, we constructed several progressively exact models. Nevertheless, none of these specifications shows any evidence that the WTO significantly and positively influences the trade between its members among Russia's trade partners. This result holds even as we exclude the oil and the gas trade and the FTA influence. Therefore, in terms of increasing the overall trade the value of ascension seems to be lower than FTAs, the impact of which is evident in the model. |
| Keywords: | Russia, gravity model, trade flows, non-oil trade |
| JEL: | C21 |
| Date: | 2011–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eus:wpaper:ec0611&r=cwa |
| By: | Mohsin, Hasan Muhammad |
| Abstract: | The study estimates impact of monetary policy (discount rate) on lending and deposit rates in Pakistan using bank type data from November 2001 to March 2011. The study finds evidence of long run relationship between lending and discount rate but deposit rate is not cointegrated with discount rate, monetary policy instrument. The study also finds an increase in the lending rate pass through rate during restricted monetary policy times (2005-2010), whereas deposit rate pass through remains same. The study finds that overall banks pass on only 20% impact of a change in discount rate to the lenders in first month implying it is not complete. There is also significant difference in various bank types pass through rates. The pass through of deposit rate is further low at 0.16 as revealed by short run analysis. It implies that the effectiveness of monetary policy is limited in Pakistan. |
| Keywords: | Discount rate, pass-through, monetary policy |
| JEL: | E58 E00 |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:33301&r=cwa |
| By: | Qin, Duo; He, Xinhua |
| Abstract: | The effect of globalisation on inflation is modelled and simulated for ten countries from G10 during the Great Moderation period. The results are supportive of the globalisation hypothesis. In particular, the results show that dynamic channels and magnitudes of globalisation to domestic inflation are highly heterogeneous from country to country, that increases in trade openness could be either inflationary or deflationary, while increased imports from low-cost emerging-market economies have been mostly deflationary, and that there has been almost no direct globalisation impact as far as inflation persistence is concerned while the impact on inflation variability can be positive as well as negative. Overall, globalisation is shown to have contributed positively to the aspect of low inflation rather than that of stable inflation during the Great Moderation era. |
| Keywords: | Inflation dynamics; globalisation |
| JEL: | E31 C52 F41 E37 |
| Date: | 2011–08–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:32994&r=cwa |
| By: | Hakan Yilmazkuday |
| Abstract: | The effects of oil shocks on output volatility through international transport costs are investigated in an open-economy DSGE model. Two versions of the model, with and without international transport costs, are structurally estimated for the U.S. economy by a Bayesian approach for moving windows of ten years. For model selection, the posterior odds ratios of the two versions are compared for each ten-year window. The version with international transport costs is selected during periods of high volatility in crude oil prices. The contribution of international transport costs to the volatility of U.S. GDP has been estimated as high as 36 percent during periods of oil crises. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy ; International trade |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddgw:82&r=cwa |
| By: | Thai-Ha Le (Division of Economics, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore); Youngho Chang (Division of Economics, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore) |
| Abstract: | This study using the monthly data spanning 1986:01-2011:04 to investigate the relationship between the prices of two strategic commodities: gold and oil. We examine this relationship through the inflation channel and their interaction with the index of the US dollar. We used different oil price proxies for our investigation and found that the impact of oil price on the gold price is not asymmetric but non-linear. Further, results show that there is a long-run relationship existing between the prices of oil and gold. The findings imply that the oil price can be used to predict the gold price. |
| Keywords: | oil price fluctuation, gold price, inflation, US dollar index, cointegration. |
| JEL: | E3 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpc:wpaper:2211&r=cwa |
| By: | Domenico Ferraro; Ken Rogoff; Barbara Rossi |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether oil prices have a reliable and stable out-of-sample relationship with the Canadian/U.S. dollar nominal exchange rate. Despite state-of-the-art methodologies, the authors find little systematic relation between oil prices and the exchange rate at the monthly and quarterly frequencies. In contrast, the main contribution is to show the existence of a very short-term relationship at the daily frequency, which is rather robust and holds no matter whether the authors use contemporaneous (realized) or lagged oil prices in their regression. However, in the latter case the predictive ability is ephemeral, mostly appearing after instabilities have been appropriately taken into account. |
| Keywords: | Foreign exchange rates ; Economic forecasting |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:11-34&r=cwa |
| By: | Milad Zarin-Nejadan (Institute of economic research IRENE, Faculty of Economics, University of Neuchâtel, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | The relative size of the State in industrialized economies has increased dramatically during the past century giving rise to legitimate fears that such a trend might end up having an adverse impact on growth. This paper explores the relationship between the development of government activities and economic growth. It starts by evoking problems related to the measurement of the public sector before reviewing statistical evidence on the long-term growth of the share of the State in the economy. It then provides a number of explanations for this phenomenon including those pertaining to the functioning of the political system itself thereby pointing towards inefficiencies. The next step is to explore the principal avenues along which government interventions can positively or negatively interfere with the growth potential of the economy. It turns out that while public expenditures – especially those responding to market failures – tend to be favorable to growth, most taxes are growth-hindering. The final part of the paper singles out some pitfalls in the empirical investigation of this relationship. The conjecture is that the nonlinear and possibly endogenous nature of the hypothesized nexus can explain the lack of consensus in empirical studies conducted so far. |
| Keywords: | Government growth, Public expenditure, Taxes, Economic growth, Endogenous growth |
| JEL: | E62 H11 H21 H50 O40 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irn:wpaper:11-02&r=cwa |
| By: | Gaoussou Diarra (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I); Patrick Plane (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I) |
| Abstract: | What does governance mean for the World Bank and to what extent does the organization succeed in diffusing the paradigm worldwide? The World Bank primarily focused on economic aspects of governance in the 1980s, and progressively moved to its political dimensions towards the end of 1990s. The paper discusses the reasons for this global shift and its consistency with regard to the values of the liberal society. Bibliometric methods are used to evaluate the role of the Bank as a producer of knowledge on this specific issue. The potential influence of the World Bank's main governance indicators: Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA), Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) and Doing Business, is depicted through what donors claim when allocating aid, and beyond rhetoric, through what correlations suggest. For each of the main international donors, cross-sectional econometric regressions are run on large samples of developing countries (2005-2008). Depending on the donor we look at, empirical results do not reject strong covariations between new aid commitments and the CPIA, and to a lesser extent with the WGI. |
| Keywords: | The World Bank;governance;liberal society;soft power;aid commitments |
| Date: | 2011–08–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00617576&r=cwa |
| By: | Akerman, Anders (Dept. of Economics, Stockholm University); Larsson, Anna (Dept. of Economics, Stockholm University); Naghavi, Alireza (University of Bologna and FEEM) |
| Abstract: | Data on the growth performances of countries with similar comparative (dis)advantage and political institutions reveal a striking variation across world regions. While some former autocracies such as the East Asian growth miracles have done remarkably well, others such as the Latin American economies have grown at much lower rates. In this paper, we propose a political economy explanation of these diverging paths of development by addressing the preferences of the country's political elite. We build a theoretical framework where factors of production owned by the political elites differ across countries. In each country, the incumbent autocrat will cater to the preferences of the elites when setting trade policy and the property rights regime. We show how stronger property rights may lead to capital accumulation and labor reallocation to the manufacturing sector. This, in turn, can lead to a shift in the comparative advantage, a decision to open up to trade and an inflow of more productive foreign capital. Consistent with a set of stylised facts on East Asia and Latin America, we argue that strong property rights are crucial for success upon globalization. |
| Keywords: | Autocracy; Growth; Political Elites; Landowners; Capitalists; Growth Miracles; Trade; Comparative Advantage; Capital Mobility; Property Rights |
| JEL: | F10 F20 O10 O24 P14 P16 |
| Date: | 2011–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sunrpe:2011_0024&r=cwa |
| By: | Mercan, Murat A. |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the literature in three ways. Our first contribution is calculating the marriage premium for Turkey. Our results suggest that married men earn 27 percent more than single men and married women earn 4 percent less than single women. Our second contribution is calculating the marriage premium for Turkey’s regions. For men, the wage difference is the smallest, 0.43, in Istanbul. The difference is highest in Akdeniz region. For women, the wage difference is smallest, -0.04, in Ege and the highest, 0.62, in Dogu Anadolu. Finally, we estimated the relationship between age and the marriage premium. We found that for men, at younger ages the difference is high. For women, in most of ages single women earn more than married women. |
| Keywords: | marriage; earnings; marriage premium |
| JEL: | J12 |
| Date: | 2011–09–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:33263&r=cwa |