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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | O'Sullivan, Meghan (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | Iraq's ability to reach its energy potential should be of broad regional and international concern. Iraq could be poised for a dramatic transformation, one in which it finally escapes the political and technical constraints that have kept it producing less than 4 percent of the world's oil, despite having the third-largest conventional oil reserves in the world. Should Iraq meet its ambitions to bring nearly 10 million more barrels of oil on line by 2017, it would constitute the largest ever capacity increase in the history of the oil industry. Should Iraq, more probably, bring only half this capacity to market, it would still represent a massive achievement. Translating Iraq's energy promise into reality is in the shared interest of Iraq, the United States, Japan, and the international community more broadly. At the highest level, the health of Iraq's energy sector--currently the source of more than 90 percent of revenues accrued by the state--is a major determinant in setting Iraq's overall trajectory. A booming energy economy is not a guarantee of a prosperous, democratic, and stable Iraq; it could also be the hallmark of an Iraq that has returned to authoritarianism or even tyranny. But it is difficult to imagine a prosperous, democratic, and stable Iraq that does not claim a thriving energy industry among its assets. |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp11-031&r=cwa |
| By: | Isabel Vansteenkiste (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we analyse the relative importance of fundamental and speculative demand on oil futures price levels and volatility. In a first step, we present a theoretical heterogeneous agent model of the oil futures market based on noise trading. We use the model to study the interaction between the oil futures price, volatility, developments in underlying fundamentals and the presence of different types of agents. We distinguish between commercial traders (who are physically involved in oil) and non-commercial traders (who are not involved physically with oil). Based on the theoretical model we find that a multiplicity of equilibria can exist. More specifically, on the one hand, if we have high fundamental volatility, high uncertainty about future oil demand, and the oil price deviation from fundamentals or the price trend is small, we will only have commercial traders entering the market. On the other hand, if a large unexpected shock to the oil spot price occurs then all traders will enter the market. In a next step, we empirically test the model by estimating a markov-switching model with time-varying transition probabilities. We estimate the model over the period January 1992 - April 2011. We find that up to 2004, movements in oil futures prices are best explained by underlying fundamentals. However, since 2004 regime switching has become more frequent and the chartist regime has been the most prominent. JEL Classification: D84, Q33, Q41, G15. |
| Keywords: | Markov switching models, oil prices, speculation. |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111371&r=cwa |
| By: | Christian EBEKE; Luc Désiré OMGBA |
| Abstract: | Evidence shows that the allocation of talented people is not neutral for growth. Thus, a country with a large population of law concentrators tends to develop rent-seeking activities that reduce growth. A country with a large population of engineers tends to foster innovation and strengthen growth. But what determines the allocation of talents? This question has not yet been empirically examined. This paper contributes to fill this gap. Based on a sample of 69 developing countries the paper highlights that oil rents determine the allocation of talents but this effect is not linear. It largely depends on the quality of governance. While, oil rents in well governed countries tend to orient talents towards productive activities, oil rents in badly governed countries tend to orient talents towards rent-seeking activities. These results are robust to different specifications, datasets on governance quality and estimation methods. |
| Keywords: | Rent-seeking; occupational choice; oil rents |
| JEL: | Q32 J24 D72 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdi:wpaper:1279&r=cwa |
| By: | Jean-Marc Burniaux; Jean Chateau; Jehan Sauvage |
| Abstract: | Quoting a joint analysis undertaken by the OECD and the IEA, G-20 leaders committed in September 2009 to “rationalize and phase out over the medium term inefficient fossil-fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption.” This report draws on previous OECD work to assess the impact on international trade of phasing out fossil-fuel consumption subsidies provided mainly by developing and emerging economies. The analysis employed the OECD’s ENV-Linkages General-Equilibrium model and used the IEA’s estimates of consumer subsidies, which measure the gap existing between the domestic prices of fossil fuels and an international reference benchmark. It shows that a co-ordinated multilateral removal of fossil-fuel consumption subsidies over the 2013-2020 period would increase global trade volumes by a very small amount (0.1%) by 2020. While seemingly negligible, this increase hides the large disparities that are observed across countries (or regions) and products. Under the central scenario, which assumes a multilateral subsidy removal over the 2013-2020 period, trade in natural gas would be most affected, with a 6% decrease by 2020. A reduction in the volume of both imports and exports from oil-exporting countries would be partly compensated by an expansion of trade flows (both imports and exports) involving OECD countries. This reallocation of trade flows would be most prevalent in products of energy-intensive industries. Looking beyond 2020, the contribution of oil-exporting countries to total world trade volumes would continue to be lower in 2050 than under the reference scenario. |
| Keywords: | climate change, trade and environment, greenhouse gas emissions, general equilibrium models, fossil-fuel subsidies |
| JEL: | F17 F18 H23 O41 Q43 Q56 |
| Date: | 2011–08–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaaa:2011/5-en&r=cwa |
| By: | Bjarne Steffen; Christoph Weber (Chair for Management Sciences and Energy Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen) |
| Abstract: | Power systems with high shares of wind and solar power have to balance their intermittent nature. Pumpedâ€hydro storage plants can provide the required flexibility, while thermal backup plants offer an alternative. This paper proposes a model based on peakâ€loadâ€pricing theory to describe the efficient technology portfolio. Drawing on a load duration curve, we derive the efficient storage capacity and discuss its dependence on cost parameters. It is shown that renewable generation affects the efficient storage capacity by changing the shape of the residual load duration curve, while limited time periods with renewable generation in excess of load do not necessarily affect the level of storage. A case study for Germany applies the model and highlights the impact of CO2 prices on storage efficiency. |
| Keywords: | electricity storage, peakâ€loadâ€pricing, renewable energy |
| JEL: | C61 D24 L94 Q41 Q42 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dui:wpaper:1104&r=cwa |
| By: | Filipe R. Campante (Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard University); Davin Chor (School of Economics, Singapore Management University) |
| Abstract: | We examine several hypotheses regarding the determinants and implications of political protest, motivated by the wave of popular uprisings in Arab countries starting in late 2010. While the popular narrative has emphasized the role of a youthful demography and political repression, we draw attention back to one of the most fundamental correlates of political activity identified in the literature, namely education. Using a combination of individual-level micro data and cross-country macro data, we highlight how rising levels of education coupled with economic under-performance jointly provide a strong explanation for participation in protest modes of political activity as well as incumbent turnover. Political protests are thus more likely when an increasingly educated populace does not have commensurate economic gains. We also find that the implied political instability is associated with heightened pressures towards democratization. |
| JEL: | D72 D78 I20 I21 O15 |
| Date: | 2011–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:siu:wpaper:03-2011&r=cwa |
| By: | Paresh Kumar Narayan; Russell Smyth |
| Abstract: | The goal of this paper is to examine evidence of stock price clustering on the South Pacific Stock Exchange, located in Fiji, and explore its determinants. We find that stock prices cluster at the decimal of 0 and 5, with almost half of prices settling on these two decimals. Upon investigating the determinants of price clustering on the South Pacific Stock Exchange we find that price level and volume of trade have a statistically significant positive effect on price clustering. We also propose and test a „panic trading‟ hypothesis which states political instability induces price clustering. We find evidence that political instability in Fiji induces price clustering behavior. |
| Keywords: | Political instability, price clustering, Fiji |
| Date: | 2011–08–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dkn:ecomet:fe_2011_03&r=cwa |
| By: | Miriam Frey (Osteuropa-Institut, Regensburg (Institut for East European Studies)); Carmen Wieslhuber |
| Abstract: | Even though Kazakhstan is one of the most successful transition countries in Central Asia it has been neglected in the literature on regional convergence. This paper fills this gap with an empirical analysis of the growth process on the regional level using annual gross regional product (GRP) data for the period 1998–2008 for the 16 Kazakh regions. In particular, we look at the sigma- and absolute beta-convergence. Given the growing variation in GRP over time, sigma-convergence cannot be found for Kazakhstan. The data show that there is also no evidence for absolute sigma-convergence. In contrast, the Kazakh regions even seem to diverge. |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ost:memopp:52&r=cwa |
| By: | Gassmann, Franziska (Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | Since the end of 2007, countries in Central Asia have been struck by two major consecutive shocks: the food and fuel price increase in 2007-08, and the global economic and financial crisis that began at the end of 2008. Households, both poor and not poor, are directly and adversely affected by the crisis. The multi-dimensionality of the crises and the volatile economic environment challenge the ability of vulnerable households to cope and to maintain their living standards. Social protection programmes play an important role in the response to a crisis. This paper provides an overview of the social and economic vulnerabilities of households with children in the five Central Asian countries, and assesses the ability of national social protection systems to address these, with the main focus on the role of non-contributory cash transfers financed from general government revenues. The paper concludes that the existing social cash transfer systems are not effective in addressing the needs of poor and vulnerable children and families in Central Asia. Limited coverage together with limited funding reduces the potential poverty reduction impact of the programmes. The paper discusses potential strategies for improving existing systems by consolidating and protecting government spending, streamlining existing benefits and transfers, improving the identification of beneficiaries and strengthening administration, monitoring and evaluation systems. |
| Keywords: | social protection, social assistance, economic crisis, poverty reduction, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan |
| JEL: | I31 I32 I38 O15 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:unumer:2011042&r=cwa |
| By: | Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas; Hélène Rey; Kai Truempler |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the geography of wealth transfers during the 2008 global financial crisis. We construct valuation changes on bilateral external positions in equity, direct investment and portfolio debt at the height of the crisis to map who benefited and who lost on their external exposure. We find a very diverse set of fortunes governed by the structure of countries' external portfolios. In particular, we are able to relate the gains and losses on debt portfolios to the country's exposure to ABCP conduits and the extent of dollar shortage. |
| JEL: | F3 F33 F41 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17353&r=cwa |
| By: | Monica Brezzi; Lewis Dijkstra; Vicente Ruiz |
| Abstract: | To account for differences among rural and urban regions, the OECD s established a regional typology, classifying TL3 regions as predominantly urban (PU), intermediate (IN) or predominantly rural (PR) (OECD, 2009). This typology, based essentially on the percentage of regional population living in urban or rural communities, has proved to be meaningful to better explain regional differences in economic and labour market performance. However this typology does not take into account the presence of economic agglomerations if they happen to be in neighbouring regions. For example, a region is classified as rural or intermediate regardless its distance from a large urban centre where labour market, access to services, education opportunities and logistics for firms can be wider. Previous work reveals great heterogeneity in economic growth among rural regions and the distance from a populated centre could be a significant factor explaining these differences. For the latter, the OECD regional typology is extended to include an accessibility criterion. This criterion is based on the driving time needed for at least half of the population in a region to reach a populated centre of with 50 000 or more inhabitants. The resulting classification consists of four types of regions: Predominantly Urban (PU), Intermediate (IN), Predominantly Rural Close to a city (PRC) and Predominantly Rural Remote (PRR). For the time being, the extended typology has only been computed for regions in North America (Canada, Mexico and the United States) and Europe. The extended typology is used to compare the dynamics of population and labour markets. Remote rural regions show a stronger decline in population and a faster ageing process than rural regions close to a city. The remoteness of rural regions is in fact a significant factor explaining regional outflows of working age population, confirming that this extended typology captures the economic distance from market and services. Remote rural regions appear economically more fragile: lower employment rates (Canada and Mexico) and economic output (Europe).<BR>Afin de prendre en compte les différences entre les régions rurales et urbaines, l’OCDE a établi une typologie régionale qui classe les régions TL3 en 3 catégories : régions majoritairement urbaines (PU), intermédiaires (IN) ou à prédominance rurale (PR), (OCDE, 2009). Cette typologie, qui repose essentiellement sur le pourcentage de la population régionale vivant dans des communautés urbaines ou rurales, s'est révélée significative pour mieux expliquer les différences régionales au niveau de la performance économique et du marché du travail. Toutefois, cette typologie ne tient pas compte de la présence de grandes agglomérations, si celles-ci se trouvent dans des régions voisines. Par exemple, une région est considérée comme rurale ou intermédiaire indépendamment de sa distance d'un grand centre urbain, où le marché du travail, l'accès aux services, les possibilités d'éducation et l’offre logistique pour les entreprises peuvent être meilleurs. Des travaux antérieurs révèlent une grande hétérogénéité de croissance économique entre les régions rurales, et la distance d'un centre fortement peuplé pourrait être un facteur important pour expliquer ces différences. C’est pour cette raison que la typologie régionale de l'OCDE a été élargie afin d’y inclure un critère d'accessibilité. Ce critère est basé sur le temps de trajet que doit réaliser au moins la moitié de la population d’une région pour atteindre un centre urbain de 50 000 habitants ou plus. La classification qui en résulte se compose de quatre types de régions: Majoritairement Urbaines (PU), Intermédiaires (IN), à prédominance rurale proches d'une ville (RPC) et à prédominance rurale éloignées (PRR). Pour l'heure, la typologie élargie n'a été calculée que pour les régions en Amérique du Nord (Canada, Mexique, États-Unis) et en Europe. La typologie élargie est utilisée pour comparer la dynamique de la population et celle des marchés du travail. Elle montre que les régions rurales éloignées ont une baisse plus importante de leur population et un processus de vieillissement plus rapide que les régions rurales proches d'une ville. L'éloignement des régions rurales est en effet un facteur important pour expliquer les migrations régionales de la population en âge de travailler, ce qui confirme que cette typologie élargie prend bien en compte la distance économique du marché et des services. Les régions rurales éloignées apparaissent plus fragiles au niveau économique : des taux d'emploi inférieurs (Canada et Mexique) et une production économique moindre (Europe). |
| Keywords: | ageing, rural regions, distance to markets, OECD regional typology, labour market mobility, road networks |
| JEL: | C80 J61 R1 R4 |
| Date: | 2011–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:govaab:2011/6-en&r=cwa |
| By: | Clifton, Judith; Díaz-Fuentes, Daniel; Fernández Gutiérrez, Marcos; Revuelta, Julio |
| Abstract: | This essay concerns the ways in which public services – particularly household services such as communications, energy, water and transportation – have been regulated and deregulated, and analyses what consequences this has for users and citizens. Much of the deregulation of public services from the 1980s – liberalization, privatization and New Public Management – was justified by claims that reform would provide users with more choice, whilst they would receive cheaper and better quality services. Little account was taken of the fact that users are highly heterogeneous, that socio-economic differences might be important in determining their consumption of public services, and that this may not lead to socially optimum outcomes. By examining consumption patterns in two large European countries, Spain and the UK, through an analysis of revealed and declared preferences, this paper sheds light on how socio-economic differences among households help determine public service consumption. The main findings are that the supposed benefits of public service deregulation are not evenly spread across populations, and that specifically targeted “bottom-up” regulation from the demand-side could usefully address these issues, thus improving social welfare. |
| Keywords: | Regulation; Privatization; Public Services; Telecommunications; Electricity; Gas and water |
| JEL: | D18 L96 L51 D12 L95 L94 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:33051&r=cwa |
| By: | Pao-Li Chang (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Myoung-Jae Lee (Department of Economics, Korea University) |
| Abstract: | This paper reexamines the GATT/WTO membership effect on bilateral trade flows, using nonparametric methods including pair-matching, permutation tests, and a Rosenbaum (2002) sensitivity analysis. Together, these methods provide an estimation framework that is robust to misspecification biases, allows general forms of heterogeneous treatment effects, and addresses potential hidden selection biases. This is in contrast to most conventional parametric studies on this issue. Our results suggest large GATT/WTO trade-promoting e®ects, robust to various restricted matching criteria, alternative indicators for GATT/WTO involvement, different matching methodologies, non-random incidence of positive trade flows, and inclusion of multilateral resistance terms. |
| Keywords: | Trade flow,Treatment effect,Matching,Permutation test,Signed-rank test,Sensitivity analysis |
| JEL: | F13 F14 C14 C21 C23 |
| Date: | 2010–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:siu:wpaper:31-2010&r=cwa |
| By: | Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex |
| Abstract: | Estimating the effect of trade on capital flows is difficult given the inherent identification problem. We use fluctuations in rainfall to capture the exogenous variation in trade between Germany, France, the U.K., and the Ottoman Empire during 1859-1913. The provisionistic policy of the Ottoman Empire--only surplus production was exported--constitutes the basis of our identification strategy. We find that one standard deviation in rainfalls from the mean leads to a 3.5 percent increase in Ottoman exports, which in turn causes a 10 percent increase in capital inflows from the three source countries. Our findings support trade theories predicting complementarity between trade and capital flows. |
| Keywords: | capital flows; default; empire; exports; FDI; rainfalls |
| JEL: | F10 F30 F40 N10 N20 N70 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8550&r=cwa |
| By: | Walt, Stephen M. (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | Most social scientists would like to believe that their profession contributes to solving pressing global problems. There is today no shortage of global problems that social scientists should study in depth: ethnic and religious conflict within and between states, the challenge of economic development, terrorism, the management of a fragile world economy, climate change and other forms of environmental degradation, the origins and impact of great power rivalries, the spread of weapons of mass destruction, just to mention a few. In this complex and contentious world, one might think that academic expertise about global affairs would be a highly valued commodity. One might also expect scholars of international relations to play a prominent role in public debates about foreign policy, along with government officials, business interests, representatives of special interest groups, and other concerned citizens. Yet the precise role that academic scholars of international affairs should play is not easy to specify. Indeed, there appear to be two conflicting ways of thinking about this matter. On the one hand, there is a widespread sense that academic research on global affairs is of declining practical value, either as a guide to policymakers or as part of broader public discourse about world affairs. On the other hand, closer engagement with the policy world and more explicit efforts at public outreach are not without their own pitfalls. Scholars who enter government service or participate in policy debates may believe that they are "speaking truth to power," but they run the risk of being corrupted or co-opted in subtle and not-so-subtle ways by the same individuals and institutions that they initially hoped to sway. The remainder of this essay explores these themes in greater detail. |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp-11030&r=cwa |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | In 2007, the OECD Council adopted a Recommendation setting forth a framework for co-operation in the enforcement of privacy laws. This report provides information on the progress in implementation measures, which is based in part on a survey of OECD member countries’ experiences. |
| Date: | 2011–04–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:stiaab:178-en&r=cwa |
| By: | Harry P. Bowen (McColl School of Business, Queens University of Charlotte); Jennifer Pedussel Wu (Berlin School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Studies routinely document that the nature of immigrant employment is largely specific: it often concentrates in non-traded goods sectors and many immigrants often have low inter-sectoral mobility. We consider these observed characteristics of immigrant employment for the question of how immigration affects a nation’s pattern of production and trade. We model an economy producing three goods; one is non-traded. Domestic labor and capital are domestically mobile but internationally immobile. Any new wave of immigration is assumed to comprise some workers who become specific to the non-traded goods sector. The model indicates that the output and trade effects of immigration depend importantly on the sectoral pattern of employment by existing and new immigrants. Empirical investigation of the model’s prediction for the relationship between immigration and trade flows in a panel dataset of OECD countries supports the prediction that trade and immigration are complements. The implications of the model and empirical findings for immigration policy are then discussed. |
| Keywords: | immigration, international factor mobility, specific factor, trade, non-traded goods |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msb:wpaper:2011-01&r=cwa |