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on Central and Western Asia |
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Issue of 2011‒08‒29
eighteen papers chosen by |
| By: | Matthias Basedau; Thomas Richter |
| Abstract: | According to quantitative studies, oil is the only resource that is robustly linked to civil war onset. However, recent debates on the nexus of oil and civil war have neglected that there are a number of peaceful oil-rentier states, and few efforts have been spent to explain why some oilexporting countries have experienced civil war and others have not. Methodologically, the debate has been dominated by research using either quantitative methods or case studies, with little genuine medium-N comparison. This paper aims to fill this gap by studying the conditions of civil war onset among net oil exporters using (crisp-set) Qualitative Comparative Analysis (csQCA). Considering a sample of 44 net oil exporters between 1970 and 2008, we test conditions such as oil abundance (per capita) and dependence, the interaction of ethnic exclusion and oil reserve locations (overlap) as well as the type of political regime (polity). Our results point to a combination of necessary and sufficient conditions that has been largely ignored until now: low abundance is a necessary condition of civil war onset. Two pathways lead to civil war: first, a combination of low abundance and high dependence and, second, a combination of low abundance and the geographical overlap of ethnic exclusion with oil reserve areas within autocracies. |
| Keywords: | civil war, oil exports, resource curse, rentier state, QCA |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gig:wpaper:157&r=cwa |
| By: | Lindner, Ines; Strulik, Holger |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces the Small World model (Watts and Strogatz, Nature, 1998) into the theory of economic growth and investigates how increasing economic integration affects firm size and effciency, norm enforcement, and aggregate economic performance. When economic integration is low and local connectivity is high, informal norms control entrepreneurial behavior and more integration mainly improves search for effcient investment opportunities. At a higher level of economic integration neighborhood enforcement deteriorates and formal institutions are needed to keep entrepreneurs in check. A gradual take-off to perpetual growth is explained by a feedback effect from investment to the formation of long-distance links and the diffusion of knowledge. If formal institutions are weak, however, the economy does not take off but stagnates at an intermediate income level. Structurally, the equilibrium of stagnation differs from balanced growth by the presence of relatively many small firms of low productivity. |
| Keywords: | modernization, economic integration, firm size, norms, networks, knowledge spillovers, growth |
| JEL: | O10 O40 L10 L14 Z13 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-478&r=cwa |
| By: | Mau, Vladimir (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of institutions in economic growth and the role of the institutions created by the Russian state in particular. The author stresses the finding that growth-supporting institutions vary according to the level of economic development in a country. In a post-industrial society, that Russia aspires to be, further economic development requires promotion of institutions securing e.g. property rights and economic freedom. Finally, based on these observations, the three development scenarios frequently discussed in the current Russian economic policy debates are analysed. |
| Keywords: | modernisation; role of institutions; economic development; Russia |
| JEL: | O10 O20 O30 |
| Date: | 2011–08–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2011_023&r=cwa |
| By: | Nagl, Stephan (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln); Fürsch, Michaela (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln); Jägemann, Cosima (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln); Bettzüge, Marc Oliver (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln) |
| Abstract: | In this article we analyze the value of thermal energy storages in concentrated solar plants depending on the electricity generation mix. To determine the value from a system integrated view we model the whole electricty generation market of the Iberian Peninsula. <p> Key findings for thermal energy storage units in concentrated solar plants include an increasing value in electricity systems with higher shares of fluctuating renewable generation and a potentially significant role in a transformation to a primarily renewable based electricity system. Due to the relatively high investment costs concentrated solar power plants with or without thermal energy storages are not cost efficient in todays electricity markets. <p> However, expected cost reductions due to learning curve effects and higher fluctuating renewable generation may lead to a comparative cost advantage of concentrated solar power plants with thermal energy storages compared to other renewable technologies. |
| Keywords: | Fluctuating renewables; value of storage; concentrated solar power; power plant optimization |
| JEL: | C61 Q40 |
| Date: | 2011–08–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:ewikln:2011_008&r=cwa |
| By: | Moshik Lavie; Christophe Muller |
| Abstract: | This paper analytically investigates the incentive scheme of perpetrators of violent conflicts. It provides a rational equilibrium framework to elicit how monetary incentives and survival considerations shape a combatant’s decision to participate in a conflict. In the model, a leader decides to award soldiers monetary incentives. Civilians finance the militia via donations and soldiers decide on the actual fighting and indulge in looting. We explore the scheduled decision-making that takes place on the path toward a violent conflict and study the principal–agent relationship that exists between the leader and the militia. In addition, we analyze the effect of several internal factors (productivity and survival risk) and external factors (relative economic resources, opponents’ military strength) on the intensity of the conflict. The model shows that soldiers fighting decisions are set by personal mortality risk and the level of identification with the cause of war. In addition, our results link between monetary incentives and participation in fighting and demonstrate a substitution effect of looting and donations as monetary incentives. |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcn:rwpapr:47&r=cwa |
| By: | Grigol, Modebadze |
| Abstract: | Using data from 2004 – 2008, we investigate the effect of foreign ownership on banks efficiency and financial performance. The data is a balanced panel consisting of 16 banks and 640 observations. In random effect regression, to investigate the influence of foreign ownership type banks’, we use the efficiency measures ROA (return on asset) and ROE (return on equity). Appling stochastic frontier analysis, we estimate banks cost efficiency. The efficiency analysis reveals that banks with foreign strategic ownership or international financial institutions involvement (EBRD or IFC) are more cost efficient than their domestic counterparts. The study also found that foreign strategic ownership positively affects the return on equity but negatively affects the banks’ return on assets. Investigation of how efficiently foreign majority owned banks are using their inputs showed that banks with foreign majority ownership are significantly less cost efficient than those with foreign strategic ownership. We find that foreign majority ownership has ambiguous effects on financial performance — it increases the return on assets but decreases the return on equity. This research highlights the importance for bank performance of a large strategic shareholder who takes a controlling interest in the bank. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Ownership; Banking; Cost Efficiency; Stochastic Frontier Analysis |
| JEL: | L25 G34 G32 G21 |
| Date: | 2011–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:32897&r=cwa |
| By: | Romain Bouis; Romain Duval; Fabrice Murtin |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the policy and institutional determinants of long-run economic growth for a sample of OECD and non-OECD countries, with two objectives. First, it assesses the extent to which the main findings from growth regressions covering industrial countries are robust to a larger sample covering lower-income OECD and non-OECD countries. Confirmation is found from pooled mean group estimates for the larger sample of countries that long-run GDP per capita levels are increased inter alia by education policies, trade openness, R&D expenditures and policy frameworks that are conducive to low inflation, although the estimated effect of education is implausibly large. Second, the paper proposes a new growth regression framework that explicitly models technology diffusion and allows exploring the growth effects of a wider set of policies and institutions, while alleviating some of the constraints of the pooled mean group estimator. Under this approach, the estimated return to education is more in line with available evidence from microeconomic studies. Regulatory barriers to entrepreneurship, explicit barriers to trade and – especially – patent rights protection appear to be fairly robust determinants of long-run cross-country differences in technology. Some other policies and institutions such as trade liberalisation are found to speed up technology convergence. There is limited evidence here that the effects of policies and institutions vary depending on countries’ level of development. These findings are subject to the usual limitations of growth regression analysis.<P>Les déterminants politiques et institutionnels de la croissance économique au sein des économies OCDE et non OCDE : nouveaux résultats à partir d'équations de croissance<BR>Cet article analyse les déterminants politiques et institutionnels de la croissance économique de long terme pour un échantillon de pays membres et non membres de l’OCDE avec deux objectifs. Premièrement, il évalue dans quelle mesure les principaux résultats de régressions couvrant des pays industrialisés sont robustes à un échantillon plus large couvrant les pays de l’OCDE à bas revenus et des pays non membres. Les résultats d’estimations en pooled mean group sur l’échantillon élargi de pays confirment que la croissance de long terme du PIB par tête augmente notamment avec les politiques d’éducation, l’ouverture aux échanges commerciaux, les dépenses en R-D et les structures politiques associées à un faible niveau d’inflation, bien que l’estimation élevée de l’effet de l’éducation soit peu plausible. Deuxièmement, le papier propose un nouveau cadre de régressions de croissance qui modélise de façon explicite la diffusion technologique et permet d’explorer les effets sur la croissance d’un ensemble plus vaste de politiques et d’institutions, tout en allégeant certaines des contraintes de l’estimateur pooled mean group. Sous cette approche, le rendement estimé de l’éducation est davantage en accord avec les estimations provenant d’études microéconomiques. Les barrières réglementaires à l’entreprenariat, les barrières explicites aux échanges commerciaux et surtout, la protection des droits sur les brevets apparaissent comme des déterminants assez robustes des différences technologiques de long terme entre pays. D’autres politiques et institutions, telles que la libéralisation des échanges commerciaux, accélèrent la convergence technologique. Il existe une évidence limitée en faveur d’effets différents des politiques et des institutions suivant le niveau de développement des pays. Ces résultats sont soumis aux limites habituelles de l’analyse en régressions de croissance. |
| Keywords: | panel data, policy and institutions, economic growth, croissance économique, données de panel, politiques et institutions |
| JEL: | N10 O40 O47 |
| Date: | 2011–02–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:843-en&r=cwa |
| By: | Nora Lustig (Tulane University and Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | The World Bank’s (WB) mission and overarching goal is to reduce poverty. Moving ahead, what can the WB do to enhance its contribution to the poverty reduction agenda? This question can be answered from at least two perspectives: the WB as a lending institution and the WB as a knowledge bank. Here we will concentrate on the latter and suggest two areas in which more and better information and analysis could help move the poverty reduction agenda forward: improving data on poverty and redressing poverty assessments to include the impact of fiscal policy on poverty and inequality. |
| Keywords: | poverty, World Bank. |
| JEL: | D31 D33 G29 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2011-209&r=cwa |
| By: | Diego Moccero; Shingo Watanabe; Boris Cournède |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an empirical analysis of the determinants of inflation in the United States, Japan, the euro area and the United Kingdom, focusing on the role of resource utilisation, inflation expectations, inflation persistence and imported inflation. It also includes a cross-sectional analysis that focuses on inflation dynamics over episodes of persistent large slack and low inflation. The main findings of this analysis are as follows: i) During the crisis, the stability of inflation expectations has held up actual inflation, so far preventing the huge slack in resource utilisation from leading to a disinflationary spiral; ii) Disinflationary pressures also seem to have been moderated by the flattening of the Phillips curve in an environment of persistent large economic slack and low inflation; iii) The link between long-term inflation expectations and past inflation outcomes has become weaker over time and appears to have almost disappeared recently; iv) The estimated Phillips curves coupled with the November 2010 projection of explanatory variables presented in the OECD Economic Outlook No. 88 and excluding the recent period of strong commodity prices point to inflation remaining low but positive, except in Japan where deflation is expected to continue past end-2012; v) The inflation outlook and associated risks argue for withdrawing monetary policy accommodation gradually in the short term, while being vigilant about the build up of broad-based inflationary pressures over the medium term.<P>Quels sont les facteurs d'inflation dans les économies de l'OCDE<BR>Cet article présente une analyse empirique des déterminants de l'inflation aux États-Unis, au Japon, dans la zone euro et au Royaume-Uni, mettant l'accent sur le rôle de l'utilisation des ressources, les anticipations d'inflation, la persistance de l'inflation et l'inflation importée. Il propose également une analyse de la dynamique de l'inflation au cours des épisodes durables de nette sous-utilisation des capacités et de faible inflation. Les principales conclusions de cette analyse sont les suivantes: i) Pendant la crise, la stabilité des anticipations d'inflation a empêché que le sous-emploi des ressources ne conduise à une spirale déflationniste, ii) Il semble également que les pressions désinflationnistes aient été modérées par l'aplatissement de la courbe de Phillips dans un contexte de faiblesse économique persistante et de basse inflation; iii) L’influence des derniers chiffres d’inflation sur les attentes d'inflation à long terme s'est affaiblie au fil du temps et semble avoir presque disparu récemment; iv) Des prévisions fondées sur les courbes de Phillips estimées et les projections des Perspectives Économiques de l’OCDE n°88 de novembre 2010 excluant la période récente de hausse des prix des produits de base suggèrent une inflation restant faible, mais positive d’ici à fin 2012, sauf au Japon où la déflation devrait se poursuivre au moins jusqu’au-delà de cette période; v) La configuration des risques à court terme et à moyen terme plaide pour un retrait progressif de l’expansion monétaire en demeurant vigilant quant au risque d’apparition de pressions inflationnistes à moyen terme. |
| Keywords: | United Kingdom, Japan, United States, disinflation, euro area, Phillips curves, core and headline inflation, inflation forecast, inflation expectations, resource slack, Royaume-Uni, Japon, États-Unis, zone Euro, désinflation, courbes de Phillips, fondement et base de l'inflation, anticipations d'inflation, fluctuation des ressources |
| JEL: | C53 E31 E52 |
| Date: | 2011–04–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:854-en&r=cwa |
| By: | Stéphanie Guichard; Elena Rusticelli |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the main monthly indicators that could help forecasting world trade and compares different type of forecasting models using these indicators. In particular it develops dynamic factor models (DFM) which have the advantage of handling larger datasets of information than bridge models and allowing for the inclusion of numerous monthly indicators on a national and world-wide level such as financial indicators, transportation and shipping indices, supply and orders variables and information technology indices. The comparison of the forecasting performance of the DFMs with more traditional bridge equation models as well as autoregressive benchmarking models shows that, the dynamic factor approach seems to perform better, especially when a large set of indicators is used, but also that the marginal gains in adding indicators seems to diminish after a certain stage.<P>Un modèle à facteurs dynamiques pour prévoir la croissance du commerce mondial<BR>Ce document passe en revue les principaux indicateurs mensuels pouvant aider á prévoir le commerce mondial et compare différents types de modèles de prévision utilisant ces indicateurs. En particulier, il développe des modèles á facteurs dynamiques (DFM) qui ont l'avantage de permettre l’utilisation de plus de séries que les modèles d’étalonnage et donc d’inclure des indicateurs mensuels au niveau national et mondial tels que les indicateurs financiers, de transport et d’expédition, d’approvisionnement et de carnets de commandes ou encore et de technologie de l’information. La comparaison de la performance de prévision des DFM avec des modèles d’étalonnage plus traditionnels ou des modèles autoregressifs montre que l'approche en facteurs dynamiques semble plus performante, surtout quand un vaste ensemble d'indicateurs est utilisé ; les gains marginaux en ajoutant des indicateurs semblent toutefois diminuer après un certain stade. |
| Keywords: | forecasting, world trade, dynamic factor models, bridge models, prévisions, Commerce mondial, modèles á facteurs dynamiques, modèle d’étalonnage |
| JEL: | C53 E37 F17 F47 |
| Date: | 2011–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:874-en&r=cwa |
| By: | Schaffer, Axel |
| Abstract: | Regional economic policy disposes of two principal options to attract private capital, which in turn helps to safeguard employment and to foster regional growth. On the one hand, regional policy could seek to enhance a region's level of public capital (e.g. transport infrastructure), which as a consequence makes the region more attractive to private investors in general. On the other hand, private capital could be attracted in a more direct way by proposing specific innovation, SME or cluster programs. The success of both options is partly driven by the regions already existing level of region specific production factors and the ability to use these factors efficiently. Indirect approaches to attract private capital seem to be particularly promising for efficient regions (no matter of the absolute level of public capital). In contrast, inefficient regions shall benefit more from specific programs. However, for Germany the factual pattern seems to be the other way around, which could widening rather than closing the income gap among regions. -- |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kitwps:31&r=cwa |
| By: | Growitsch, Christian (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln); Stronzik, Marcus (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln) |
| Abstract: | The European Commission has intensively discussed the mandatory separation of natural gas transmission from production and services. However, economic theory is ambiguous on the price effects of vertical separation. In this paper, we empirically analyse the effect of ownership unbundling of gas transmission networks as the strongest form of vertical separation on the level of end-user prices. <p> Therefore, we apply different dynamic estimators as system GMM and the bias-corrected least-squares dummy variable or LSDVC estimator on an unbalanced panel out of 18 EU countries over 19 years, allowing us to avoid the endogeneity problem and to estimate the long-run effects of regulation. <p> We introduce a set of regulatory indicators as market entry regulation, ownership structure, vertical separation and market structure and account for structural and economic country specifics. Among these different estimators, we consistently find that ownership unbundling has no impact on natural gas end-user prices, while the more modest legal unbundling reduces them significantly. Furthermore, third-party access, market structure and privatisation show significant influence with the latter leading to higher price levels. |
| Keywords: | Natural gas; Networks; Regulation; Ownership unbundling; Panel data |
| JEL: | C23 L43 L94 |
| Date: | 2011–07–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:ewikln:2011_007&r=cwa |
| By: | Paola Bertolini; Francesco Pagliacci |
| Abstract: | In 2010, the Lisbon Strategy came to its end. Even if many targets have not been fully reached by each of the 27 EU Members, a new and more ambitious reform strategy has been launched: the Europe 2020 Strategy. In order to evaluate the results of the Lisbon Strategy and of Europe 2020 Strategy, many indicators are yearly collected and published by EUROSTAT. From the analysis of these indicators, the work analyses how different European countries perform in economic, social and environmental issues. The paper moves from the works of Sapir [2006], who has already underlined – among the EU-15 – the existence of four different European social models (Nordic, Anglo- Saxon, Continental, Mediterranean), sharing different combinations of economic efficiency and social equity. This work tries to go further. First, it also underlines the role of the environmental issues in defining a sustainable European social model. Then, the analysis includes also Eastern countries, trying to identify the existence of possible Eastern social models. Therefore, in order to identify different European social models, we use a multivariate statistics methodology, i.e. the Principal Component Analysis (PCA), applied to a set of 20 variables (all the variables included in the short list of indicators from EU plus other environmental indicators) collected for all the European countries. The obtained results are among the expected ones. Sapir’s results are largely confirmed. In particular the supremacy of the Nordic model is straightforward. On the opposite side, when including environmental indicators, the Anglo-Saxon model seems to perform worse than Mediterranean one. Finally, referring to Eastern countries, a single social model does not emerge. |
| Keywords: | European policies, Lisbon Strategy, social models, sustainability |
| JEL: | R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2011–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mod:cappmo:0088&r=cwa |
| By: | Paolo Foschi (Università di Bologna); Stefano Pagliarani (Università di Padova); Andrea Pascucci (Università di Bologna) |
| Abstract: | We develop approximate formulae expressed in terms of elementary functions for the density, the price and the Greeks of path dependent options of Asian style, in a general local volatility model. An algorithm for computing higher order approximations is provided. The proof is based on a heat kernel expansion method in the framework of hypoelliptic, not uniformly parabolic, partial differential equations. |
| Keywords: | Asian Options, Degenerate Diffusion Processes, Transition Density Functions, Analytic Approximations, Option Pricing |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bot:quadip:111&r=cwa |
| By: | Jimborean, R. |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to complete our understanding of the relationship between changes in nominal effective exchange rates and prices in the new EU member states. We investigate the exchange rate pass-through to import, producer and consumer prices for ten Central and Eastern European countries with quarterly data from January 1996 to June 2010. In a first step, the pass-through estimates are derived from a dynamic panel data model, through the generalized method of moments. A statistically significant exchange rate pass-through to import prices is found, while no statistically significant exchange rate pass-through is estimated to consumer and producer prices. We further investigate whether exchange-rate pass-through estimates have declined in response to a change in inflation environment and find evidence of such decline only for import prices, both in the short run and the long run. In a second step, we proceed to an individual analysis, country by country, and find support for an increased heterogeneity in the exchange rate pass-through estimates. We equally test for the stability of the estimated. |
| Keywords: | inflation and prices, exchange rate pass-through, GMM, international topics. |
| JEL: | C33 E31 E42 E52 F31 O52 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:341&r=cwa |
| By: | Pierre-Henri Faure (Larefi - Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales - Université Montesquieu - Bordeaux IV : EA2954) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the role of corruption in a two-country model with fiscal spillovers. In the absence of cooperation on governance issues, countries always have a strategic incentive to appoint policymakers whose aversion to corruption is lower than average. An international agreement is a precondition for placing corruption fighters at the head of governments. |
| Keywords: | Corruption; Fiscal policy; International cooperation |
| Date: | 2011–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00610523&r=cwa |
| By: | Radulescu, Crina |
| Abstract: | The Lisbon Treaty introduces a new form of public participation in European Union policy shaping, the European citizens' initiative (ECI). The European Citizens' Initiative is one of the major innovations of this treaty aiming to increase participatory democracy in the European Union (EU).The ECI will allow 1 million citizens from at least one quarter of the EU Member States to invite the European Commission to call directly on the European Commission to bring forward an initiative of interest to them in an area of EU competence. As required by the Treaty, on a proposal from the European Commission, the European Parliament and the Council adopted a Regulation which defines the rules and procedure governing this new instrument (Regulation (EU) No. 211/2011 of the European Parliament and of the Council 16 February 2011 on the citizens' initiative). In accordance with the Regulation, it will only be possible to launch the first European Citizens' Initiatives from 1 April 2012. This initiative includes several steps: identifying and developing an idea, verifying the legality, considering the alternatives, taking into account the research ECI procedures, writing the initiative, building a multinational citizens' initiative committee, building an alliance, evaluating the opposition, developing a budget and in our analysis will identify the weaknesses and the strong points. The methodology of research comprises bibliographic studies and different analysis of the Regulation (EU) No. 211/2011 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the citizens' initiative). |
| Keywords: | participatory democracy; European Citizens' Initiative |
| Date: | 2011–07–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsu:apasro:411&r=cwa |
| By: | Karpaty, Patrik (Örebro University); Tingvall, Patrik Gustavsson (Stockholm School of Economics and CESIS) |
| Abstract: | National concerns are sometimes raised against offshoring of economic activities to other countries. While most of the existing literature has focused on the effects on labor demand and productivity the effects on domestic R&D have been neglected. This is unfortunate since the decision to offshore activities also includes R&D. We use unique and rich firm level data for the Swedish manufacturing sector to analyze how offshoring impacts domestic R&D and how these effects vary with respect to target region and type of firm. The results suggest that offshoring of production alter a firm’s investments in R&D in Sweden and that a negative impact on home country R&D is confined to offshoring by non-multinationals and offshoring to Europe and EU15 countries. |
| Keywords: | Offshoring; R&D; Manufacturing sector; EU15 |
| JEL: | C23 F16 F23 J23 |
| Date: | 2011–08–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cesisp:0254&r=cwa |