|
on Central and Western Asia |
|
Issue of 2011‒08‒22
ten papers chosen by Bibhu Prasad Nayak Institute for Social and Economic Change |
| By: | Serhan Cevik; Joshua Charap |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the empirical behavior of conventional bank deposit rates and the rate of return on retail Islamic profit-and-loss sharing (PLS) investment accounts in Malaysia and Turkey, using monthly data from January 1997 to August 2010. The analysis shows that conventional bank deposit rates and PLS returns exhibit long-run cointegration and the time-varying volatility of conventional bank deposit rates and PLS returns is correlated and is statistically significant. The pairwise and multivariate causality tests show that conventional bank deposit rates Granger cause returns on PLS accounts. These findings have policy implications in terms of price stability and financial stability. |
| Keywords: | Banking , Cross country analysis , Interest rates , Islamic banking , Malaysia , Profit margins , Turkey , |
| Date: | 2011–07–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/156&r=cwa |
| By: | Aysit Tansel (Middle East Technical University and Economic Research Forum (ERF) Cairo, Egypt); Yousef Daoud (Birzeit University Palestine and Economic Research Forum (ERF) Cairo, Egypt) |
| Abstract: | This study exposes a comparative treatment of the private returns to education in Palestine and Turkey over the period 2004-2008. Comparable data, similar definitions and same methodology are used in the estimations. The estimates are provided first for average returns to education second for returns at different levels of schooling and finally for returns by different sectors of employment. The results suggest that returns to schooling are higher for Turkey at the various levels of education for females and males and for both years 2004 and 2008. It is believed that the relative size of the Palestinian economy and the uniqueness of subjugation to military occupation contribute greatly to this result. In 2008, returns are lower than 2004 levels for all levels of education; the pattern is less obvious for Turkey across the various levels. However, the 2008 crisis seems to have influenced the more educated more severely (MA and above) in both countries. Female returns to education are higher for women than men in both countries; the gender gap has worsened in 2008, but more so for Palestine. The median ratio of male to female return is 0.55 (university) in 2004 and decreased to 0.17 (high school) in 2008 in Palestine. The corresponding figures for Turkey are 0.79 and .082 (both for high school). Finally, it was found that the selectivity corrected return estimates are lower than the OLS estimates in Palestine while they are higher than the OLS estimates in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Returns to Education, Mincer Equation, Gender, Palestine, Turkey |
| JEL: | J16 J24 J31 J45 O31 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1118&r=cwa |
| By: | Tansel, Aysit (Middle East Technical University); Daoud, Yousef (Birzeit University Palestine) |
| Abstract: | This study exposes a comparative treatment of the private returns to education in Palestine and Turkey over the period 2004-2008. Comparable data, similar definitions and same methodology are used in the estimations. The estimates are provided first for average returns to education second for returns at different levels of schooling and finally for returns by different sectors of employment. The results suggest that returns to schooling are higher for Turkey at the various levels of education for Females and males and for both years 2004 and 2008. It is believed that the relative size of the Palestinian economy the uniqueness of subjugation to military occupation contribute greatly to this result. In 2008, returns are lower than 2004 levels for all levels of education; the pattern is less obvious for Turkey across the various levels. However, the 2008 crisis seems to have influenced the more educated more severely (MA and above) in both countries. Female returns to education are higher for women than men in both countries; the gender gap has worsened in 2008, but more so for Palestine. The median ratio of male to female return is 0.55 (university) in 2004 and decreased to 0.17 (high school) in 2008 in Palestine. The corresponding figures for Turkey are 0.79 and .082 (both for high school).Finally, it was found that the selectivity corrected return estimates are lower than the OLS estimates in Palestine while they are higher than the OLS estimates in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | returns to education, Mincer equation, gender, Palestine, Turkey |
| JEL: | J16 J24 J31 J45 O31 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5907&r=cwa |
| By: | Alper Ozun (Bradford University, School of Management, UK); Erman Erbaykal (Istanbul University, Department of Economics, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the causal relationships between defence spending and economic growth using the Toda–Yamamoto approach to Granger causality test in the case of selected NATO countries for the period of 1949-2006. NATO countries spend biggest proportion of defence spending in the world. Granger causality test on defence-growth issue employed by number of scholars but this paper is firstly used Toda–Yamamoto approach to granger causality to analyze relationship between defence spending and growth. The results show that unidirectional causality exists in seven NATO countries while for five countries no causal relationships were found. On the other hand, Turkey differs from other countries in that the relationship is bilateral. |
| Keywords: | defence spending, Turkish economy, Granger causality, NATO, economic growth, Toda–Yamamoto approach |
| JEL: | H56 C22 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1119&r=cwa |
| By: | Nese Erbil |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the cyclicality of fiscal behavior in 28 developing oil-producing countries (OPCs) during 1990-2009. After testing five fiscal measures - government expenditure, consumption, investment, non-oil revenue, and non-oil primary balance - and correcting for reverse causality between non-oil output and fiscal variables, the results suggest that all of the five fiscal variables are strongly procyclical in the full sample. Also, the results are not uniform across income groups: expenditure is procyclical in the low and middle-income countries, while it is countercyclical in the high-income countries. Fiscal policy tends to be affected by the external financing constraints in the middle- and high-income groups. However, the quality of institutions and political structure appear to be more significant for the low-income group. |
| Keywords: | Business cycles , Cross country analysis , Developing countries , Economic models , Fiscal policy , Government expenditures , Nonoil sector , Oil producing countries , Oil revenues , |
| Date: | 2011–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/171&r=cwa |
| By: | Mohammad Reza Farzin; Dominique M. Guillaume; Roman Zytek |
| Abstract: | On December 18, 2010, Iran increased domestic energy and agricultural prices by up to 20 times, making it the first major oil-exporting country to reduce substantially implicit energy subsidies. This paper reviews the economic and technical issues involved in the planning and early implementation of the reform, including the transfers to households and the public relations campaign that were critical to the success of the reform. It also looks at the reform from a chronological standpoint, in particular in the final phases of the preparation. The paper concludes by an overview of the main challenges for the second phase of the reform. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural prices , Banking sector , Corporate sector , Energy prices , Fiscal policy , Fiscal reforms , Legislation , Oil revenues , Price adjustments , Price increases , Subsidy payments , |
| Date: | 2011–07–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/167&r=cwa |
| By: | Alexander Chubrik; Roman Mogilevsky; Irina Sinitsina; Marek Dabrowski |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an overview of public expenditures on education and healthcare in Belarus, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Ukraine and some other countries of the former Soviet Union before and during the global financial crisis. Before the crisis, the governments of these countries were substantially increasing spending on education and health. The crisis adversely affected the FSU countries and worsened their fiscal situation. The analysis indicates that during the crisis, despite the fiscal constraints, public education and health expenditures have mostly been maintained or increased in almost all of these countries. However, the crisis situation was not taken as an opportunity to address these countries’ key education and healthcare problems related to demographic changes, insufficient per capita expenditure levels, the low efficiency of public spending and the insufficient quality of services. These issues form an ambitious reform agenda for these countries in the medium- and long-term. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal policy, Former Soviet Union, Education financing, Health financing, Global economic crisis |
| JEL: | E62 H50 H51 H52 I18 I22 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sec:cnrepo:0100&r=cwa |
| By: | D. Filiz Unsal; Carolina Osorio; Runchana Pongsaparn |
| Abstract: | We propose a new Financial Condition Index (FCI) for Asian economies based on two different methodologies: a VAR model and a Dynamic Factor Model. The paper shows that this index has predictive power in forecasting GDP growth and may be thus used as a leading indicator. Based on the FCI, financial conditions in Asia tightened substantially earlier in the global crisis, reflecting losses in the stock markets and tighter credit conditions. In early 2010, financial conditions in Asia recovered rapidly and reached precrisis levels, thanks to accommodative monetary policies and a rapid rebound in regional equity markets. |
| Keywords: | Asia , Economic growth , Economic conditions , Financial sector , Forecasting models , Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009 , Gross domestic product , |
| Date: | 2011–07–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/170&r=cwa |
| By: | Nelly Petkova; Rafal Stanek; Angela Bularga |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to examine the medium-term budget planning process in Ukraine and the extent to which this approach is used within the environmental sector. It aims to assist the Ukrainian government to integrate environmental programmes more effectively into overall programming, financial planning and budgeting practices which could result into more adequate and predictable allocations to the environment sector. The study also seeks to analyse the implications of the progressive shift in aid modalities towards sectoral and general budget support. This report was prepared within the framework of the OECD Task Force for the Implementation of the Environmental Action Programme for Central and Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia. The report also builds upon work that started within the OECD Task Team on Governance and Capacity Development for Natural Resource and Environmental Management, a joint Task Team of the OECD Development Assistance and Environmental Policy Committees. In addition, the report contributes to the debate on Green Growth, demonstrating the need for more adequate and well-costed environmental budgets, in the context of medium-term expenditure frameworks, as a means of promoting structural changes as part of the transition to green economy. |
| Keywords: | budget systems, Ukraine, direct budget support, environmental public expenditure management, environmental management, environmental investment programmes, development cooperation, medium-term budgeting, medium-term expenditure frameworks, Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia (EECCA) |
| JEL: | E61 H61 O13 O19 O52 P28 Q01 Q56 Q57 |
| Date: | 2011–03–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:31-en&r=cwa |
| By: | Nicholas Bloom; Helena Schweiger; John Van Reenen |
| Abstract: | We have conducted the first survey on management practices in transition countries. We found that Central Asian transition countries, such as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, have on average very poor management practices. Their average scores are below emerging countries such as Brazil, China and India. In contrast, the central European transition countries such as Poland and Lithuania operate with management practices that are only moderately worse than those of western European countries such as Germany. Since we find these practices are strongly linked to firm performance, this suggests poor management practices may be impeding the development of Central Asian transition countries. We find that competition, multinational ownership, private ownership and human capital are all strongly correlated with better management. This implies that the continued opening of markets to domestic and foreign competition, privatisation of state-owned firms and increased levels of workforce education should promote better management, and ultimately faster economic growth. |
| Keywords: | management, firm performance, transition economies |
| JEL: | L2 M2 P21 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1065&r=cwa |