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on Central and Western Asia |
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Issue of 2011‒08‒15
six papers chosen by Bibhu Prasad Nayak Institute for Social and Economic Change |
| By: | Kirdar, Murat G. (Middle East Technical University); Tayfur, Meltem Dayioglu (Middle East Technical University); Koc, Ismet (Hacettepe University) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impact of the extension of compulsory schooling in Turkey from 5 to 8 years on the marriage and fertility behavior of teenage women in Turkey using the 2008 Turkish Demographic and Health Survey. We find that the new education policy reduces the probability of marriage and giving birth for teenage women substantially: the probability of marriage by age 16 is reduced by 44 percent and the probability of giving birth by age 17 falls by 36 percent. The effects of the education policy on the time until marriage and first-birth persist beyond the completion of compulsory schooling. In addition, we find that the delay in the time until first-birth is driven by the delay in the time until marriage. After a woman is married, the rise in compulsory schooling years does not have an effect on the duration until her first-birth. Finally, we find that the education policy was more effective in reducing early marriage than a change in the Civil Code aimed for this purpose. |
| Keywords: | age at marriage, fertility, education, compulsory schooling |
| JEL: | J12 J13 I20 D10 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5887&r=cwa |
| By: | Holland, Stephen (University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | “Peak oil” refers to the future decline in world production of crude oil and to the accompanying potentially calamitous effects. The peak oil literature typically rejects economic analysis. This chapter, following Holland (2008), argues that economic analysis is indeed appropriate for analyzing oil scarcity since standard economic models can replicate the observed peaks in oil production. Moreover, the emphasis on peak oil is misplaced since peaking is not a good indicator of scarcity, peak oil techniques are overly simplistic, the catastrophes predicted by the peak oil literature are unlikely, and the literature does not contribute to correcting identified market failures. Efficiency of oil markets could be improved by instead focusing on remedying market failures such as excessive private discount rates, environmental externalities, market power, insufficient innovation incentives, incomplete futures markets, and insecure property rights. |
| Keywords: | Depletable resources; Hotelling; peak oil |
| JEL: | Q30 Q40 |
| Date: | 2011–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:uncgec:2011_013&r=cwa |
| By: | Harun Alp; Selim Elekdag |
| Abstract: | As an emerging economy, Turkey is an interesting case study because it was one of the hardest hit countries by the crisis, with a year-over-year contraction of 15 percent during the first quarter of 2009. At the same time, anticipating the fallout from the crisis, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) decreased policy rates by an astounding 1025 basis points over the November 2008 to November 2009 period. In this context, this paper addresses the following broad question: If an inflation targeting framework underpinned by a flexible exchange rate regime was not adopted, how much deeper would the recent recession have been? Taking the most intense year of the crisis as our baseline, namely 2009, counterfactual simulations indicate that rather than the actual contraction of –4.8 percent, the growth outturn would have been –6.2 percent if the CBRT had not implemented countercyclical and discretionary interest rate cuts. Further, if a fixed exchange rate regime was instead in place, then the counterfactual simulations indicate a growth rate of –8.0 percent in 2009. In other words, the interest rate cuts implemented by the CBRT and exchange rate flexibility both helped substantially soften the impact of the global financial crisis. These counterfactual experiments are based on an estimated structural model which along with standard nominal and real rigidities, include a financial accelerator mechanism in an open-economy framework. |
| Keywords: | Financial Accelerator, Bayesian Estimation, DSGE Model, Financial Crises, Sudden Stops, Monetary Policy, Turkey, Emerging Economies, Emerging Markets |
| JEL: | E5 F3 F4 C11 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1110&r=cwa |
| By: | Evren Ceritoglu |
| Abstract: | I analyse the Household Budget Surveys prepared by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) to reveal the empirical importance of precautionary saving in Turkey. The most difficult aspect of the empirical analysis is the approximation of labour income risk as a proxy variable for future labour income uncertainty. Individual disposable income is interacted with the probability of being unemployed and with the probability of job-loss in the next period to generate the labour income risk variables. The econometric results support the precautionary saving hypothesis and labour income risk emerges as one of the main determinants of household saving decisions. Moreover, households implement alternative strategies to smooth their income streams such as holding a second job and increasing the number of income earners in the family. However, it is observed that they are still vulnerable against labour income risk, which underlines the need for a satisfactory social security system. |
| Keywords: | Precautionary Saving, Labour Income Risk, Unemployment Insurance |
| JEL: | D12 J65 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1109&r=cwa |
| By: | Feizabadi, Yaser |
| Abstract: | Rice comes second after wheat in Iran`s food consumption economy. Rising population and recent growth in GDP has made Iran one of the greatest rice importer countries all over the world. That is why rice marketing has always been a controversial issue in Iran`s agricultural economics. To study rice marketing system in Iran, this paper aims to calculate rice marketing margin, market efficiency and marketing cost coefficient in seaside Mazandaran province( where 70 percent of domestic rice production is obtained )Over the period 2000-2010. Results show that firstly HYV`s wholesale marketing margin is less than local varieties in 2000 while this trend is reversed in 2010. Secondly, retail marketing margin, total marketing margin, market efficiency and cost marketing coefficient for local varieties are all greater than HYV. Consequently, agricultural cooperative`s encouragement would lead to decrease in rice marketing margin and role of traders and raises rice farmers earnings |
| Keywords: | Mazandaran Province, Marketing Margin, Rice, Marketing, Q13, |
| Date: | 2011–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc11:108944&r=cwa |
| By: | Manganhele, Anina Trefina |
| Abstract: | Despite many decades of experimentation with supplier-led approaches to credit in many developing countries, limited success has been achieved in terms of improving access to credit for smallholder farmers. In the case of Mozambique, previous attempts by government to improve access to credit for farmers were not successful and the government is looking for more effective strategies. The purpose of this study is to examine experiences in other developing countries in Africa and Asia. The study is a multiple case studies selected from Zimbabwe, Thailand and Indonesia. The data collection method comprised a combination of primary collected through in-depth interviews with key informants and secondary sources. The data analysis techniques consisted of searching for themes regarding successful strategies in terms of dealing with costs and risks of lending to agriculture. Lessons from these cases were drawn to shed light on what the most effective intervention strategy for the Government of Mozambique could entail if it is to succeed to improve access to credit for smallholder farmers. The study concludes that an alternative strategy by the government to improve access to credit for smallholder farmers includes the re-establishment of a public rural bank. The study recommends that rural financial institutions should adopt a demand-driven approach, and the fundos do fomento (special development funds) need to be reformed. |
| Keywords: | smallholder farmers, access to agricultural credit, government intervention, Mozambique and other developing countries, Financial Economics, |
| Date: | 2010–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaae10:96811&r=cwa |