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on Central and Western Asia |
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Issue of 2011‒08‒02
nine papers chosen by Bibhu Prasad Nayak Institute for Social and Economic Change |
| By: | Ron Alquist; Lutz Kilian; Robert J. Vigfusson |
| Abstract: | We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the choice of sample period and about the tradeoffs between alternative oil price series and model specifications? Are real or nominal oil prices predictable based on macroeconomic aggregates? Does this predictability translate into gains in out-of-sample forecast accuracy compared with conventional no-change forecasts? How useful are oil futures markets in forecasting the price of oil? How useful are survey forecasts? How does one evaluate the sensitivity of a baseline oil price forecast to alternative assumptions about future demand and supply conditions? How does one quantify risks associated with oil price forecasts? Can joint forecasts of the price of oil and of U.S. real GDP growth be improved upon by allowing for asymmetries? |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1022&r=cwa |
| By: | Zaheer, S.; Ongena, S.; Wijnbergen, S.J.G. van (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the differences in banks’ responses to monetary policy shocks across bank size, liquidity, and type, i.e., conventional versus Islamic, in Pakistan between 2002:II to 2010:I. We find that following a monetary contraction, small banks with liquid balance sheets cut their lending less than other small banks. In contrast large banks maintain their lending irrespective of their liquidity positions. Islamic banks, though similar in size to small banks, respond to monetary policy shocks as large banks. Hence ceteris paribus the credit channel of monetary policy may weaken when Islamic banking grows in relative importance. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy;Islamic Banking;Pakistan. |
| JEL: | E5 G2 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:kubcen:2011078&r=cwa |
| By: | Alessandro Cologni (Edison Trading, Edison S.p.A); Matteo Manera |
| Abstract: | Previous literature has suggested that different mechanisms of transmission of exogenous oil shocks are responsible for the negative effects on the economic performances of oil exporting countries. This paper aims at providing further evidence on the role of sectoral reallocation between private and public sectors in explaining the impact of shocks to oil revenues on the economic growth rates of major oil producing countries (namely the GCC - Gulf Corporation Council - countries). The effects of oil shocks and expansionary fiscal policy on the business cycle of oil producing countries are examined. The possibility to distinguish between various components of public sector spending policy (that is, purchases of consumption goods, investments in productive activities and compensation for public employees) is, in particular, allowed for. A real business cycle (RBC) model is calibrated to fit the data on an “average” oil producing country. Results from the simulation of the theoretical model suggest that the possibility that crowding-out effects of public over private investments can explain a large fraction of the negative effects of shocks to oil revenues on the private sector of the economy. In addition, since the growth in size of the public sector is unable to compensate for the reduction in size of the private sector, an increase in oil revenues has the effect to decrease total output. An expansionary fiscal policy is argued to have significant positive effects on private investments, employment and overall production. On the contrary, a shock to government consumption expenditure impacts negatively the level of public investment. As employment in the public sector increases significantly, public output responds positively to a shock in government consumption expenditure. Finally, an instantaneous negative effect on total investments and on the stock of capital in the economy is predicted. However, driven by the increase of the number of employees in the economy, total output expands. |
| Keywords: | Oil Shocks, Dutch Disease, Resource Curse and Real Business Cycle Modelling |
| JEL: | C61 E22 E62 Q48 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2011.55&r=cwa |
| By: | Nicholas Bloom; Helena Schweiger; John Van Reenen |
| Abstract: | We have conducted the first survey on management practices in transition countries. We found that Central Asian transition countries, such as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, have on average very poor management practices. Their average scores are below emerging countries such as Brazil, China and India. In contrast, the central European transition countries such as Poland and Lithuania operate with management practices that are only moderately worse than those of western European countries such as Germany. Since we find these practices are strongly linked to firm performance, this suggests poor management practices may be impeding the development of Central Asian transition countries. We find that competition, multinational ownership, private ownership and human capital are all strongly correlated with better management. This implies that the continued opening of markets to domestic and foreign competition, privatisation of state-owned firms and increased levels of workforce education should promote better management, and ultimately faster economic growth. |
| JEL: | M11 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17231&r=cwa |
| By: | Breisinger, Clemens; Zhu, Tingju; Al Riffai, Perrihan; Nelson, Gerald; Robertson, Richard; Funes, Jose; Verner, Dorte |
| Abstract: | There is broad consensus among scientists that climate change is altering weather patterns around the world. However, economists are only beginning to develop tools that allow for the quantification of such weather changes on countries' economies and people. This paper presents a modeling suite that links the downscaling of global climate models, crop modeling, global economic modeling, and subnational-level computable equilibrium modeling. Important to note is that this approach allows for decomposing the potential global and local economic effects on countries, including various economic sectors and different household groups. We apply this modeling suite to Syria, a relevant case study given the country's location in a region that is consistently projected to be among those hit hardest by climate change. Despite a certain degree of endogenous adaptation, local impacts of climate change (through declining yields) are likely to affect Syria beyond the agricultural sector and farmers and also reduce economy-wide growth and incomes of urban households in the long term. The overall effects of global climate change (through higher food prices) are also negative, but some farmers can reap the benefit of higher prices. Combining local and global climate change scenarios shows welfare losses across all rural and urban household groups of between 1.6 – 2.8 percent annually, whereas the poorest household groups are the hardest hit. Finally, while there is some evidence that droughts may become more frequent in the future, it is clear that even without an increase in frequency, drought impacts will continue to put a significant burden on Syria's economy and people. Action to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and variability should to be taken on the global and local level. A global action plan for improving food security and better integration of climate change in national development strategies, agricultural and rural policies, and disaster risk management and social protection policies will be keys for improving the resilience of countries and people to climate change. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Development, drought, Growth, Poverty, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1091&r=cwa |
| By: | Ahmad, Nor Hayati Bt; Noor, Mohamad Akbar Noor Mohamad; Sufian, Fadzlan |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates the efficiency of the Islamic banking sectors in the world covering 25 countries during the period of 2003-2009. The efficiency estimates of individual banks are evaluated using the non-parametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method. The empirical findings suggest that during the period of study, pure technical efficiency outweighs scale efficiency in World Islamic banking countries. We find that banks from the high income countries were the leaders by dominating the most efficiency frontier during the period of study. |
| Keywords: | Islamic Banks: Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA): Performance Evaluation. |
| JEL: | G28 G21 |
| Date: | 2010–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:29497&r=cwa |
| By: | Alessandro Cologni (Edison Trading, Edison S.p.A); Matteo Manera (Department of Statistics, University of Milan-Bicocca, and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, decisions regarding production in oil exporting countries are studied by means of theoretical analysis and empirical investigation. Under the assumptions of exogenous oil prices and world oil demand, we are able to describe the relationship between oil production levels and changes in the conditions in world oil markets. Intertemporal production decisions by a representative oil producer are modelled by means of a partial equilibrium model. In this theoretical model, oil producers are subject to exogenous shocks in world oil demand and prices. Oil companies can change output levels only by incurring a fixed cost. Results from the simulation of this model show a strong relationship between oil production and changes in world oil consumption. On the contrary, the effects of changes in real oil prices on oil production decisions seem to be much lower. Results from the simulation of the theoretical model are then empirically investigated using time-series econometric techniques. The empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that several oil producing countries are characterized by different responses to changes in world oil demand and in real oil prices. For many countries production rapidly adjusts to changes in consumption whereas responses of oil production to innovations in real oil prices are found to be not statistically significant. In addition, when non-linearities in the relationship between exogenous variables and output levels are allowed for, evidence of asymmetric effects of output levels to shocks in demand levels and oil prices is found. |
| Keywords: | Oil Production, Exogenous Shocks, Theoretical Modelling, Time Series Analysis |
| JEL: | C22 D21 Q41 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2011.54&r=cwa |
| By: | Halicioglu, Ferda |
| Abstract: | This short note presents the research rankings of economists and economics departments at world-wide and Turkish scale using RePEc data base as of June 2011. Brief suggestions and conclusions are provided for the Turkish researchers and economics departments so that they could increase their research rankings. |
| Keywords: | research ranking; World; Turkey |
| JEL: | A10 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:32407&r=cwa |
| By: | Elasrag, Hussein |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to investigate the possibilities and problems for Establishment of the corporate social responsibility (CSR) in the Arab countries. The paper explores the nature and concept of CSR, particularly the Arab initiatives. As well as studying the activation of the corporate social responsibility role in the economic and social development of Arab countries. |
| Keywords: | Corporate Social Responsibility, Development , Arab countries |
| JEL: | M14 |
| Date: | 2011–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:32347&r=cwa |