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on Central and Western Asia |
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Issue of 2011‒07‒13
seventeen papers chosen by Bibhu Prasad Nayak Institute for Social and Economic Change |
| By: | Seyed Ahmad Hashemi (Vice-president for education, Islamic Azad University, Lamerd Branch, Iran) |
| Abstract: | Rapid changes in information age has faced all organizations and human based associations like education departments with challenges such as globalization, heavy competition, lack of supplies as well as unpredictable fluctuations. So to meet the new conditions education has to reform and use more information and communication technology, as ICT plays an important role in education. Thus for changing communications technology to public culture, a detailed analysis of this important subject with a systematic attitude in education, establishment of virtual schools, cooperation and coordination in all official organizations, private sectors and legislation is required. This essays discusses how the application of ICT would lead to efficiency in education systems, equal educational opportunities for students in all levels, quantitative and qualitative progress in education, creating a research spirit among teachers and students, enrichment of self-assessment, improvement of decision making and understanding knowledge, educating experts and finally the prevention of brain drain |
| Keywords: | Quality, technology, Information, Communication and brain drain |
| JEL: | M00 |
| Date: | 2011–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cms:1icm11:2011-019_191&r=cwa |
| By: | Elitok, Secil Pacaci; Straubhaar, Thomas |
| Abstract: | The end of the Cold War has been a catalyst for Turkish economic relations with its neighbors. Turkey moved from the periphery to the center of a region that is transforming politically, socially and economically very fast. It is now surrounded by 13 sovereign nation states, which are more or less open to international trade and factor movements. All these new nation states have become potential partners for all kinds of economic activities. Due to their proximity, they are easily accessible markets for Turkish exports of goods or for imports of energy. Furthermore, they could provide the Turkish economy with cheap labor force - either as migrants to Turkey or as workers for Turkish plants to be established in the neighborhood. -- |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hwwipp:3-13&r=cwa |
| By: | Elitok, Secil Pacaci |
| Abstract: | The likelihood of a potential migration flow from Turkey into the European Union (EU) has increasingly been the focus of debates among academics and policy makers. As having one of the fastest growing populations of Europe, Turkey and its migration potential are the nexus of fears and concerns. Against this background, this paper is a survey of the growing literature on the estimations of the volume of potential migration from Turkey to the EU within the context of possible Turkish membership. Taking into account the methodological problems, drawbacks of the data and definitional issues, this article aims at critically evaluating the existing literature. In the light of potential migration discussions, this paper emphasizes the necessity of a shift in the focus of debate from quantitative aspects, that are overemphasizing the economic aspects, to qualitative dimensions of migration potential from Turkey to the EU. -- |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hwwipp:3-11&r=cwa |
| By: | Elitok, Secil Pacaci; Straubhaar, Thomas |
| Abstract: | In the post Second World War period Turkey was an emigration country for a long time. But things have changed since. After the end of the Cold War and the breakup of the Soviet Union, immigration from the neighborhood to Turkey increased substantially. A lively cross-border movement with the countries of the former Soviet Union, but also with the Middle East countries (i.e. especially Iran), has occurred. On the other hand, Western European countries have become extremely reluctant to open up their borders to Turkish migrants. As a consequence, Turkey is a country of emigration, immigration and transit, nowadays. In this paper, we concentrate on immigration and transit migration. -- |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hwwipp:3-16&r=cwa |
| By: | Robert Lanquar |
| Abstract: | For the last two decades, MED11 countries (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestinian Autonomy, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey) have recorded the highest growth rate in inbound world tourism. In the same time, domestic tourism in these countries was growing very fast. MED 11 tourism performances have been astonishing in light of the security risks, natural disasters, oil prices rises and economic uncertainties of the region. The last financial crisis had no severe consequences on this development, which confirmed the resilience of tourism and the huge potential of the MED 11 countries in this sector. This trend was abruptly halted in early 2011 during the Arab Spring, but could resume when the situation stabilizes. This paper questions whether this trend will continue in the period up to 2030 and, for that, provides four different possible scenarios for the development of the tourism sector in MED11 for 2030: (i) reference scenario, (ii) common sustainable development scenario,(iii) polarized (regional) development scenario and (iv) failed development - decline and conflict – scenario. In all cases, international and domestic tourism arrivals will grow. However, security and adjustment to climate change remain the main factors that will strongly influence the development of the tourism sector in MED11 countries. |
| Keywords: | Mediterranean, domestic tourism, international tourism, security, climate change, tourism indicators, tourism's economic contribution, tourism competitiveness, tourism prospective, tourism scenarios |
| JEL: | D12 D60 E27 F47 H54 O53 O55 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sec:cnrepo:0098&r=cwa |
| By: | Marat Ibragimov; Rustam Ibragimov; Rufat Khamidov |
| Abstract: | Distributions of many variables of interest in developed economic and financial markets, including income and wealth, exhibit heavy tails as in the case of Pareto or power laws. Many commonly used income and wealth inequality measures are very sensitive to extremes and outliers generated by these distributions due to their heavy-tailedness properties. This paper focuses on robust analysis of distributions and heavy-tailedness characteristics for data on income and wealth for the World, Russia and post-Soviet Central Asian economies. Among other results, it provides robust estimates of heavy-tailedness parameters for income and wealth in the markets considered and their comparisons with the benchmark values that are well-established for distributions of these variables in developed economies. The paper further provides applications of the obtained empirical results to inference on inequality measures and discusses their implications for market demand and economic equilibrium. |
| Keywords: | Income inequality, wealth inequality, CIS countries, Russian economy, post-Soviet economies, heavy-tailedness, power laws, Pareto distribution, income inequality, market demand, economic equilibrium |
| JEL: | C14 D31 P24 |
| Date: | 2010–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:bpaper:bowp:088&r=cwa |
| By: | Asena Caner (TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics); Selin Arslanhan (Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV)); Kerem Helvacioglu (Ankara University, Department of Economics); Ismail Saglam (TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics); Tuncay Teksoz (Pfizer Ýlaçlarý Ltd. Þti.) |
| Abstract: | To evaluate the costs and benefits of various anti-smoking policy alternatives including taxation and four cessation programs, accounting for the demographic projections in 2011-2050 in Turkey. Demographic projections are combined with incidence and mortality rates of four major cigarette related diseases, price elasticity of cigarette demand and unit costs of nonprice measures to reduce demand in order to estimate the net present discounted values of policy alternatives. Among policy alternatives that yield the same amount of cigarette consumption, cessation programs yield lower costs to households and the society at large than taxation, while taxation is preferred by the public sector. Net benefit to the public sector as a function of the tax rate is a single-peaked Laffer curve. The public sector can obtain the highest net benefit if it raises the special consumption tax rate from its current level by nearly 9 percentage points. Although intervention programs emerge as the preferred anti-smoking alternatives, more research is needed on estimating the cost-effectiveness and social desirability of taxation and intervention programs in Turkey. |
| Date: | 2011–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1116&r=cwa |
| By: | Elitok, Secil Pacaci; Straubhaar, Thomas |
| Abstract: | The Turkish economy has gone thru a fast and strong change in recent years. Three dimensions are of special significance: 1. Firstly, the Turkish economy has grown very quickly, with three severe recessions in 1994, 2000/1 and 2009. 2. Secondly, it has opened up rapidly but is still not that open as other economies with a similar level of development. 3. Thirdly, private business has increased but state enterprises or publicly owned and run firms are still important. -- |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hwwipp:3-10&r=cwa |
| By: | Kamaladin Rahmani (Assistant Professor of Management, Department of Economics and Management, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran); Masoud Behravesh (Economics Researcher, Department of Management, Bonab Branch, Islamic Azad University, Bonab, Iran); Nayere Karegar (M.Sc Student of Economics Sciences, Department of Management, Bonab Branch, Islamic Azad University, Bonab, Iran); Samira Rahmani (B.Sc of Business Management, Department of Management, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran) |
| Abstract: | Policy-making and appropriate economic planning in every country requires the recognition of its various regions productive capabilities and potentials. This research deals with the status of food industry in the province of Eastern Azerbaijan and the evaluation of comparative advantage in the main subdivisions of this industry. To achieve this, the productive potential of each of these subdivisions has been studied by making use of the ten comparative advantage subdivisions following the rating of the results by the help of the location coefficient index and indirectly has been obtained based on the issuance ability. Finally, the final prioritization of the subdivisions and their status in relation with their comparative advantage for the aforesaid industry by the application of numerical taxonomy has been presented. Ultimately, with the help of the spider diagram, and by due consideration of the results of location coefficient index, the amount of the structural changes of food industries of the province has been demonstrated during the years 2001 till 2006 |
| Keywords: | Comparative advantage, Productive and Commercial benefit, Regional planning, International commerce, Province of Eastern Azerbaijan |
| JEL: | M00 |
| Date: | 2011–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cms:1icm11:2011-015_156&r=cwa |
| By: | Elitok, Secil Pacaci; Straubhaar, Thomas |
| Abstract: | The end of the Cold War changed the political landscape of the Black Sea area and the Middle East completely: In the North-East, the collapse of the Soviet Union was followed by the nascence of new sovereign nation states - with all the problems of nation building and all the costs of going through a fundamental economic and social transformation from communist systems to market oriented economies. In the West, the European Union (EU) widened geographically and deepened structurally, increasing the number of full members from 12 to 15 (1995) to 25 (2004) and finally to 27 (2007). Furthermore a European Monetary Union with a common currency for 16 members was established. Finally, the South-East - disturbed by political crisis and wars - has become more important as a supplier of energy (i.e. gas and oil) not only for the area itself but even more for Europe and other world regions. -- |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hwwipp:3-12&r=cwa |
| By: | Marina Theodosiou (Central Bank of Cyprus); Filip Zikes (Imperial College London) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a comprehensive comparison of the existing tests for the presence of jumps in prices of financial assets. The relative performance of the tests is examined in a Monte Carlo simulation, covering scenarios of both finite and infinite activity jumps, stochastic volatility models with continuous and discontinuous volatility sample paths, microstructure noise, infrequent trading and deterministic diurnal volatility. The simulation results reveal important differences in terms of size and power across the different data generating processes and sensitivity to the presence of zero returns and microstructure frictions in the data. An empirical application to assets from different classes complements the analysis. |
| Keywords: | Quadratic variation, jumps, stochastic volatility, realized measures,high-frequency data |
| JEL: | E31 C12 C14 G10 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cyb:wpaper:2011-1&r=cwa |
| By: | Mohamad hasan Mohsen nasab (Islamic azad university Shoushtar branch, Iran); Mohammad ali enayati shiraz (Islamic azad university andimeshk branch, Iran); Issa heydari (Islamic azad university Shuster branch, Iran); Masood Hamzehpour (Islamic azad university Bagh malek branch, Iran); Ganbar mirnehad (Islamic azad university Shoushtar branch, Iran) |
| Abstract: | The development of better tools and methods will facilitate the capture codification; use and exploitation of the knowledge and experience of employees are basic assumption in knowledge management. A great need has been felt in recent years for using knowledge that is hardly establish in government organization. Globalization in alteration and the induction of values such as contribution, citizen-oriented ness and knowledge-oriented ness in modern theories of public administration and also issues such as government-shrinkage and exertion of instead of incumbency make it necessary for government organization. this article explain that knowledge management obstacles in government organization are: Cultural and human factors-structural factors- political factors |
| Keywords: | knowledge, knowledge management, government organization |
| JEL: | M00 |
| Date: | 2011–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cms:1icm11:2011-016_169&r=cwa |
| By: | Chiara Marazzi (Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods, University of Pavia); Gianni Vaggi (Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods, University of Pavia); Angelica Vitali (Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods, University of Pavia) |
| Abstract: | Growth Diagnostics, GD, by Ricardo Hausmann, Dani Rodrik and Andrés Velasco, represents a useful and practical approach in order to identify the most binding constraints to explain low economic growth. According to the authors the full list of specific economic constraints is unknowable ex-ante, and as a second best solution it is worth trying to identify the feature which represents the major obstacle to the unleashing of the growth potential of a country. This paper has two major aims. In the first part we try to expand the GD method by concentrating on those constraints which appear to be on the 'market/demand side' of the determinants of economic growth, and which widens the 'decision tree' by including a new diagnostic branch represented by Demand-Side variables. This helps to capture the influence of market conditions on profitability and investments. In the second part of the paper we apply the new decision tree to Palestine. The original GD would not allow to identify the most binding constraints to economic growth in Palestine. In fact, Demand-Side elements are fundamental to explain the constraints to Palestinian development. In particular, Palestine suffers from the small dimension of the local markets and from the impossibility to effectively integrate the different markets. Therefore, Palestinian firmsdo not grow and do not reach a size which could make them competitive. |
| Keywords: | Palestine, market size, investment constraints |
| JEL: | O53 O11 E22 |
| Date: | 2010–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pav:wpaper:260&r=cwa |
| By: | Vipin Arora; Rod Tyers |
| Abstract: | It is commonly understood that macroeconomic shocks influence commodity prices and that one channel for this is the link between interest rates, expected future asset returns and stockholding. In this paper the link is extended to the petroleum market with the recognition that recorded stocks of oil comprise a small share of annual demand and that the parallel with storable commodities is the decision to produce the oil in the first place, as opposed to holding it in the ground as reserve. Oil reserves are then a key asset in producing countries, which is arbitraged against financial assets. Thus, when the yield on financial assets falls, retaining oil reserves becomes more attractive to producing countries, which then have less incentive to accommodate demand rises, and so the oil price rises. This perspective on oil pricing is modeled in a dynamic multi-region general equilibrium framework in which regional households manage portfolios of assets that include oil reserves. When the model is calibrated to match observed data over two decades, simulation results indicate that asset arbitrage made a large contribution to the high pre-GFC oil price. |
| JEL: | E37 F47 Q43 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:acb:camaaa:2011-21&r=cwa |
| By: | Farhad Nejadirani (Assistance Professor of Management, Faculty of Social Science, Department of Management, Bonab Branch, Islamic Azad University, Bonab, Iran); Armin Rajabzadeh (Lecturer of Management, Faculty of Social Science, Marketing Management Department, Payam Noor University, 19395-4697 Tehran, Iran); Masoud Behravesh (Economics Researcher, Faculty of Social Science, Department of Management, Bonab Branch, Islamic Azad University, Bonab, Iran); Nayere Karegar (M.Sc Student of Economics Sciences, Department of Economics and Management, Bonab Branch, Islamic Azad University, Bonab, Iran) |
| Abstract: | The use of the Internet along with a range of other information and communications technologies (ICT) is transforming how business is done locally and globally. The effects are sometimes dramatic in developed countries. There are even a growing number of examples of the use of ICT for electronic commerce (E-Commerce) in developing countries. The effects to date, though, are small compared to what is expected to occur in the next decades. Forecasters all agree that how business is done will be profoundly affected by ICT; they do not agree on what the exact effects will be. We do know that there are many ways businesses can benefit from electronic commerce – from serving current customers better and finding new customers and suppliers to improving the efficiency of their business processes. Businesses are also finding ways to expand the products and services they sell, how they sell them and how they charge for them. Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SME’s) in developing countries need to be able to figure out how, when, if, and where to use electronic commerce techniques to reap these gains. They face obstacles and constraints specific to the developing countries in which they operate such as higher costs to access the Internet and language barriers. For SMEs in developing countries E-Commerce poses the advantages of reduced information search costs and transactions cost (i.e., improving efficiency of operations- reducing time for payment, credit processing and the like). Surveys show that information on the following is most valuable to SMEs: customers and markets, product design, process technology, and financing source and terms. The Internet and other ICTs facilitate access to this information. In addition; the Internet allows automatic packaging and distribution of information (including customized information) to specific target groups |
| Keywords: | E-Commerce, Developing Countries, SME’s |
| JEL: | M00 |
| Date: | 2011–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cms:1icm11:2011-010-111&r=cwa |
| By: | Yamamura, Eiji |
| Abstract: | This paper uses cross-country data from 1984 to 2008 to examine how institution influences the number of deaths caused by natural disasters. The major findings show that the number of deaths resulting from natural disasters is smaller in countries with less public sector corruption, and for OECD countries with better functioning legal systems, but not for non-OECD countries. |
| Keywords: | Natural disaster; law and order; corruption; economic development. |
| JEL: | D73 O10 K10 Q54 |
| Date: | 2011–07–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:32069&r=cwa |
| By: | ince, meltem |
| Abstract: | The objective of the paper is to seek how financial growth affects economic growth in Turkey in the flourishing world. The financial market is changed and developed very rapidly in the last decade. Moreover the change of financial market has also been brought some innovations and new policies. So this study examines whether financial development leads to economic growth in Turkey. The main elements of financial liberalization that have been used commonly in the literature are considered for analysis. This is because financial liberalization is the first step to achieve financial development and can contribute to development. In the light of financial development between the period of 1980 and 2010, cointegration and Granger casuality tests are applied to assess the finance-growth linkages. There is a strong relation between finance and growth in the short-run, but it is failed in the long-run casuality. Contrary to the conventional findings in the literature, the results of the analysis support that there is one way link from financial development to economic growth for Turkey and it is necessary to take different policies to improve growth and maintain the steady economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Financial growth; financial liberalization; economic growth; Casuality; Cointegration |
| JEL: | D53 E44 C22 F43 |
| Date: | 2011–04–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:31978&r=cwa |