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on Central and Western Asia |
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Issue of 2011‒06‒18
five papers chosen by Bibhu Prasad Nayak Institute for Social and Economic Change |
| By: | Catik, A. Nazif; Karaçuka, Mehmet |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses inflation forecasting power of artificial neural networks with alternative univariate time series models for Turkey. The forecasting accuracy of the models is compared in terms of both static and dynamic forecasts for the period between 1982:1 and 2009:12. We find that at earlier forecast horizons conventional models, especially ARFIMA and ARIMA, provide better one-step ahead forecasting performance. However, unobserved components model turns out to be the best performer in terms of dynamic forecasts. The superiority of the unobserved components model suggests that inflation in Turkey has time varying pattern and conventional models are not able to track underlying trend of inflation in the long run. -- |
| Keywords: | Inflation forecasting,Neural networks,Unobserved components model |
| JEL: | C45 C53 E31 E37 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:20&r=cwa |
| By: | Richard P C Brown; Fabrizio Carmignani; Ghada Fayad |
| Abstract: | Financial development and financial literacy in developing countries are commonly identified as important conditions for attaining higher rates of investment and economic growth. It has also been argued that migrants’ remittances stimulate financial development in the receiving economy, contributing indirectly to economic growth. Past research has been based almost exclusively on the macro-level relationship between remittances and financial depth. To explore this relationship further, we combine macroeconomic analysis using a cross-country panel dataset with micro-level analysis of households’ uses of financial sector services. From the macroeconomic analysis we find evidence of a negative relationship between remittances and financial deepening in developing countries, once we control for the countries’ legal origin. At the microeconomic level we use household survey data from a recent study of migrants’ remittances in two transition economies, resource rich and relatively more financially developed Azerbaijan, and Kyrgyzstan, to test the relationship between remittances and financial literacy among remittance-receiving households. While we find some supportive evidence, albeit weak, for Kyrgyzstan, in Azerbaijan, the relatively more financially-developed economy, we uncover a strong perverse relationship. Remittances appear to deter the use of formal banking services. Possible reasons are explored and areas for further investigation identified. |
| Keywords: | remittances, financial development, financial literacy, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan |
| JEL: | F22 O16 O53 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:059&r=cwa |
| By: | Mariam Camarero (Dpto. Economía. Universidad Jaume I); Juana Castillo (Dpto. Economía Aplicada II. Universidad de Valencia); Andrés J. Picazo-Tadeo (Dpto. Economía Aplicada II. Universidad de Valencia); Cecilio Tamarit (Dpto. Economía Aplicada II. Universidad de Valencia) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the convergence in eco-efficiency of a group of 22 OECD countries over the period 1980-2005. In doing so, three air-pollutants representing the impact on the environment of economic activities are considered, namely, carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX) and sulphur oxides (SOX); furthermore, eco-efficiency scores at both country and air-pollutant-specific levels are computed using Data Envelopment Analysis techniques. Then, convergence is evaluated using the recent approach by Phillips and Sul (2007), which allows testing for the existence of convergence groups. First, we find that, with the exception of NOX emissions, eco-efficiency has improved over the period, the greatest progress corresponding to CO2 emissions. Second, Switzerland is the most eco-efficient country, followed by some Scandinavian economies such as Sweden, Norway, Iceland and Denmark. In contrast, European Mediterranean countries such as Portugal, Spain and Greece, in addition to Hungary, Turkey, Canada or the US, are among the worst performers. Finally, we find that both the most eco-efficient countries and the worst-performing countries also tend to form clubs of convergence among them. |
| Keywords: | Eco-efficiency; Air pollutants; Convergence clubs; OECD |
| JEL: | C15 C22 C61 F15 Q56 |
| Date: | 2011–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eec:wpaper:1116&r=cwa |
| By: | Abraham, Vinoj; Rajan, Irudaya S |
| Abstract: | Studies record that a large number of South Asian migrant workers in the Middle–East had to return to their home countries owing to the global financial crisis and loss of jobs. However, their distress of loss of job in the gulf is compounded by the fact that in their own home countries the rehabilitation and reintegration of these workers is tedious and often the returnees are thrust with forced choices. This paper, based on a primary survey conducted in five south Asian countries, namely; Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India, concludes that on return, the employment status of REMs were in general worse off than in their host country with high share of casualisation, self employment and unemployment in the crisis year and a decline in their average monthly earnings. The analysis suggests that those who found employment on return was in fact driven by economic compulsions to reduce their job search period and cost. |
| Keywords: | Global Financial Crisis; Return Migrants; South Asia; Employment; Wages |
| JEL: | F22 N15 J2 |
| Date: | 2011–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:31386&r=cwa |
| By: | Kyriaki Remoundou (Department of International and European Economic Studies, Athens University of Economics and Business); Fikret Adaman (Bogaziçi University); Phoebe Koundouri (Department of International and European Economic Studies, Athens University of Economics and Business); Paulo A.L.D. Nunes (The Mediterranean Science Commission – CIESM, and Department of Agriculture and Natural Resources Economics – TESAF, University of Padova) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a non-market valuation study to elicit consumers’ preferences for a marine restoration programme in the Black Sea aiming to reduce the level of public health risk from bathing and improve water quality and the overall level of marine biodiversity. In this context, we administer a stated choice experiment in coastal settlements in Ukraine and Turkey and employ two tax revenue reallocation schemes as payment vehicles. One proposes the financing of the marine restoration programme by the reduction of the public budget for renewable energy and the second by the reduction of the public budget on training for civil servants. We examine the stated preferences and the subsequently derived economic value estimates in the two treatments with the aim to investigate whether the trade-off implied by the funding scheme has implications for the valuation outcome. Results reveal that preferences and marginal rates of substitution between the non-price attributes under consideration differ significantly. In the civil servants’ budget reallocation scheme, the reallocation coefficient is positive, implying that ceteris paribus redistribution of public financial resources from this source is utility-enhancing. The magnitude of the results differs in the two considered countries mirroring their heterogeneity in political and cultural dimensions. |
| Keywords: | Non-Market Valuation; Stated Choice Experiment, Payment Vehicle, Tax Revenues Reallocation, Marine Resources, Black Sea, Marine Biodiversity, Developing Countries |
| JEL: | Q22 Q28 |
| Date: | 2011–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2011.38&r=cwa |